The Knuckle Blog

A Brief Lottery Briefing

Posted on May 21, 2013 by benweinrib

You won’t find me in any college math classes after my adventure with multivarible calculus, but I fancy myself a mathematical person. And being a big fan of the NBA Draft, you can bet I’m a fan of the NBA Draft Lottery.

Sure, I wasn’t happy when my Bobcats lost the #1 pick to the Hornets–boy this is going to be confusing looking back in a few years–after they had nearly three fewer wins than the second worst team in the league. But the Lottery disincentives tanking and adds excitement to the league, so it is a good thing.

There are a few things that bother me about the lottery. It’s not necessarily about how the process is done, but rather how people look at the lottery.

Specifically, the magical word “due.”

I’m not sure if people forgot what they learned in high school math (very possible) or if they believe in karma over logic, but this isn’t how odds work.

The lottery is a simple (?) process.

Obviously the Magic will win the lottery because they lost Dwight. Or it’s going to be the Pelicans or future Hornets because they’re changing nicknames. Or the Kings because they won’t be relocated.

There are 14 ping pong balls each numbered one through fourteen. Four ping pong balls are randomly drawn (the order does not matter), which gives us 24,024 combinations. Simplify that by a factor of 24 and you get 1,001 combinations, then drop the last combination and you have an even 1,000 combinations. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations, determined by their record, and you have each team’s odds at landing a lottery pick.

Four ping pong balls are continuously drawn until three unique teams are selected. The rest of the picks are organized by record.

It’s all luck. There’s no “due.” And there’s no conspiracy. You can make up a conspiracy theory for any team.

This idea of a team being “due” continues even today–an article ran about it in the Dallas Morning News–despite it making no sense.

Yes, the Bobcats, Suns, and Pistons have never won the lottery, but that doesn’t mean they’re more likely to win it now. The fourth pick has never won the lottery, but that doesn’t mean Phoenix has a better or worse shot. The Magic have won it three times, but that doesn’t mean anything either.

Each draft is completely separate. It’s just odds each time.

Imagine using Chad Ford’s Mock Lottery Machine nineteen times, never coming up with the Phoenix Suns first. What is the chance you get the Suns with the first pick on your twentieth try? Is it 80% since they haven’t come up yet so they have to soon? Is it 2% since they haven’t been chosen yet, so they probably still won’t?

Nope, it’s still 11.2%, like always.

Since the lottery was weighted in 1994 so that the team with the worst record has a 25% chance of landing the top pick, the team with the best odds has only won twice. Two out of nineteen is not very good–10.5% is less half the odds of 25%. Yeah, I can do math.

So is the NBA rigging it so that the team with the worst record doesn’t get the number one pick? We can check if that 10.5% actually statistically significant–suggesting the lottery is rigged–or if it is just due to random variation by using a binomial distribution. Who’s excited for some math?!

And in fact, the binomial distribution gives us a p-value of .07, which is bigger than .05 and therefore too large for us to reject the null hypothesis. In layman’s terms, there is not enough evidence for us to say that the lottery is rigged.

Well maybe they’re not just preventing the worst team from winning the lottery, they’re just selecting the first winner because of a narrative. We can check this by running a chi-square test on the lottery winners.

Again, the chi-square test gives us a p-value of .089, which is still to large for us to reject the null hypothesis. We don’t have enough evidence for us to say the first overall pick is rigged.

But maybe it’s not the first pick that’s rigged, but rather all three winners of the lottery. We can check that again by running a chi-square test.

No surprise here, the p-value is very high: .355. Using that data, it’s almost comical to suggest that the lottery is rigged.

I know the last thing anyone wants before they excitedly watch grown men drawn ping pong balls is a math lesson, but this should help dispel any misguided thoughts about tonight’s lottery.

Categories: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Boston Strong

Posted on May 6, 2013 by benweinrib

School is over at Vanderbilt, but I’m still writing for InsideVandy.com–for a good reason. I stumbled across a great story following the tragic the bombings at the Boston Marathon, and it turned out to be probably my favorite article I’ve written this year.

My article, Boston Strong, is a 1500-word longer-form piece about how the tragedy affected the Vanderbilt baseball team. The Commodores have a particularly strong New England presence with six student-athletes from Massachusetts and Coach Corbin from New Hampshire.

I also decided to make a podcast to share the full interviews with Tyler Beede, Corbin, and Rhett Wiseman along with Beede’s song Boston Strong. Check out the podcast–linked below–and feel free to share it with a friend, or two, or twenty.

The Knuckle Cast Episode #4

Your prize for making it through the podcast

Categories: College Baseball, Podcasts | Leave a comment

A Preconceived Idea of What It All Meant

Posted on April 29, 2013 by benweinrib

Something very big happened in the sports world–something larger than wins and losses.

We like to think of ourselves as living in a progressive society with acceptance for all people, yet we’re reminded how backwards things still are when Mississippi finally ratified the Thirteenth Amendment less than ten weeks ago.

But this morning, Jason Collins did something no active athlete had ever done before. To quote his Sports Illustrated first-person story:

“I’m a 34-year-old NBA center. I’m black. And I’m gay.”

Collins became the first active athlete in the four major American sports to come out, something for which he should be commended. It takes a lot of courage, especially in our culture that is still insensitive to many minorities. Especially in a league like the NBA, where there is a sadly prevalent use of hurtful slurs, even by star players who are supposed to be roles models. Especially when artists like Lil Wayne will drop that same word without a second’s thought in his verse in Look At Me Now.

Side note: how did nobody ask Collins why he wore the number 98? The great Hamed Haddadi is the only other player in NBA history to don that unique number.

But who Jason Collins is doesn’t change the player he is. Even if he never plays another minute in the Association–he’s a free agent this summer coming off his sixth team in twelve years–today’s news doesn’t change the fact that he’s a very strong interior defender, a near-champion in the NCAA and NBA, and a beloved teammate. My opinion of him as a player–like all teams’, players’, and fans’ should–remains the same as it was less than twenty-four hours ago.

Jason Collins’ true legacy will be the day when an athlete coming out will not be news. Because it won’t matter. Hopefully Collins’ big decision will even inspire other players to open up about themselves. Jason Collins should return to the NBA because he is still a serviceable rebounder, defender, and mentor–or at least better than 40-year old Juwan Howard–not because it would make a good story.

But there’s a solid chance that Jason Collins won’t be back in the league next season. Not because he’s black. And not because he’s gay. Because that doesn’t matter in player evaluation. And if anyone thinks it should, Collins was, by all accounts, a fantastic teammate, and he’s the same person today that he has been for the past twelve years. The man never caused any problems in the lockerroom before, so if an issue arises, that becomes the teammate’s problem.

Jason Collins may never play another minute in the NBA–but that’s because he’s a 34-year old center with no post game. When running an team, that’s all that matters. Strip away the fear, underneath Collins is the same as any other 7-footer. And that’s the way things should be.

Categories: NBA | 1 Comment

A Memory Stuck Like A Tattoo

Posted on April 3, 2013 by benweinrib

The first time I interviewed Vanderbilt shooting guard A.J. Astroth, I asked him a rather open-ended question: “What’s something most people don’t know about you?”

A.J. took a while to respond, then turned to sophomore forward Shelby Moats, who was walking out of the gym.

“What’s something most people don’t know about me?”

It took Shelby a few seconds, too, until he finally said, “you’re tatted.”

Well that was kind of obvious. A.J. is has more ink than a finals paper.

He’s got a giant lion on the right side of his chest with the words “Heart of a Lion” – the 6-foot-6 freshman is a Leo, after all.

On his right arm, Astroth has an image of a staircase heading up to a gate with the shadow of a basketball figure and the words “God’s Gift.” His tricep has a cracked hourglass with the words “Never Enough” wrapped around it. On the inside of his arm? The phrase “Sacrifice: without fear there is no courage.”

And then there is his right arm. On his right arm, there is an intricate cross with the words “Psalm 27” along with the dates 1926 and 2008. There is a rosary on the back of his arm and the beginning of Psalm 27 printed on the inside of his arm

The Lord is my salvation: Whom shall I fear? The Lord is the strength of my life: Of whom shall I be afraid?

This arm is dedicated to A.J. Astroth’s grandmother.

Astroth was born in Germany because his father worked in the military. Since his mother also had to work a lot, A.J.’s grandma helped raise him until the age of seven.

According to Astroth, his grandmother had at least 15 children and did not have any education past the eight grade, but he considers her one of the smartest women he’s ever met.

“She always knew exactly what to say for every situation,” said Astroth. “Just looking up to her, it was just something I grew up with. Knowing that everything’s going to be all right, even when things didn’t seem all right because she always knew how to go about things.”

Beyond being such a wise woman, Astroth’s grandmother was also extremely religious. Astroth can still remember the long, lively church services he would go to with her, but the more important religious aspect of his grandmother were the lessons and moments at home.

“She was always lecturing me or yelling at me or putting me on the right track,” Astroth recalled fondly.

But perhaps more important than keeping young Astroth in line with his behavior was her use of strong faith as a form of comfort.

“When I was a little kid,” said Astroth, “she used to read me Psalm 27 whenever I got scared. As I got older, when I wasn’t really scared of the dark or things like that but I would feel down on myself, she would read that to me. It would be like a motivator to me.”

To Astroth, this quote symbolizes rising above temptation, rising above the evils of the world. Above all else, walking with God and walking with faith.

Once both Astroth’s family moved back stateside, the two were separated. His grandmother moved to Chesapeake, Virginia, and Astroth now lives in Tampa, Florida. Despite the distance between cities, Astroth still managed to see his grandma once or twice a year.

When they did meet up again, times were good. Astroth can remember his grandma coming out to play basketball with him and his cousins, even as she was in her 70s. And then there was her famous cooking he always enjoyed.

When his grandmother did pass away, the whole family went through a tough time. Astroth knew he wanted to get a tattoo to commemorate her, but he wanted to wait until he was older.

During his junior year, Astroth’s mother finally allowed him to go get his first tattoo, the one he had been planning since his grandmother’s passing.

“I felt like I just wanted to get something to remind myself to always keep going no matter what.”

From a short glance at A.J. Astroth’s tattoos, it’s not hard to see that he derives lots of his motivation from religion. Between the rosary, cross, psalm, and “God’s Gift” moniker, that much is clear.

But what most people may not know about A.J. is the lifelong impact one great woman can have on a basketball player’s life.

Categories: College Basketball | Leave a comment

2013 Baseball Preview

Posted on March 27, 2013 by benweinrib

Well, folks, it’s finally here. After months of hard work, research, writing, formatting, editing, blood, sweat, and not that many tears (I swear) the 2013 Baseball Preview has arrived.

First the bad news: this year’s issue is not 105 pages. In fact it shrunk for the first time in my seven years of writing this to 38 pages.

But there’s good news: You get another year of my baseball preview with better content than ever. And it’s 100% free. Unless you really want to pay, then just email me bwweinrib@gmail.com and something can be arranged.

Enjoy!

Categories: MLB | 2 Comments

2013 Top 50 MLB Prospects

Posted on March 18, 2013 by benweinrib

It’s been a while, folks. A month and a day, actually. Between school work, finishing up my baseball preview, and pledging a fraternity, I haven’t had a ton of time on my hands, but I’m happy to issue my first sneak peak at my 2013 Baseball Preview.

Just like the past two years, I’m offering a look at my scouting reports on baseball’s top 50 prospects a little in advance of the publishing date (within 10 days, be ready). In the actual preview itself, each team will again have scouting reports for their top 10 prospects along with individual grades.

Unfortunately, this year’s preview won’t be quite as big as last year’s. Ain’t nobody got time for 108 pages. Instead, we’re looking more at something between 32 and 40 pages. For now, enjoy an early look at baseball’s future stars.

Notes:

Two players (Oscar Taveras and Xander Bogaerts) jumped from the 40s to the top 5.
Only 26 players return from last year’s top 50 prospects list.
14 players graduated to the majors.
10 players fell off the top 50 list from last year.
Of the 24 new players to the list, 10 were selected in the 2012 draft.
13 of the top prospects were taken in the first round of the 2011 draft, the most among any draft.
Billy Hamilton (2nd round), Jonathan Singleton (8th), Mason Williams (4th), and Austin Hedges (2nd) were the only players drafted outside the first round, excluding the 12 players signed in international free agency.

Positional Breakdown

4 Catchers
1 First Baseman
1 Second Baseman
3 Third Basemen
7 Shortstops
11 Center Fielders
5 Right Fielders
17 Right-Handed Pitchers
1 Left-Handed Pitchers

1. Jurickson Profar		SS	Rangers
H/W: 5’11″ 165	2012 Ranking: 9	Age: 19	B/T: B/R
Profar shows all the tools (home run power may come soon) with an outstanding approach. With such a complete game, he’s the top prospect in baseball.

2. Wil Myers		RF	Rays
H/W: 6’3″ 190	2012 Ranking: 13	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
He has a great bat with plus plus power. There’s really nothing to dislike unless you want to be picky about his strikeouts. Myers will be on the Evan Longoria-esque delayed call-up this year.

3. Oscar Taveras		RF	Cardinals
H/W: 6’2″ 180	2012 Ranking: 41	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
His swing may look a little funky, and he tends to be overly aggressive at the plate, but Taveras can absolutely rake. Hit hit, power, and fielding tools are all well above plus.

4. Dylan Bundy		RHP	Orioles
H/W: 6’1″ 195	2012 Ranking: 8	Age: 20	B/T: B/R
Bundy has exceptional polish, especially a twenty-year old. The man has four plus pitches how that he’s re-added his cutter to his repertoire; MLB’s best pitching prospect.

5. Xander Bogaerts		SS	Red Sox
H/W: 6’3″ 175	2012 Ranking: 44	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
He can absolutely rakes with 30+ home run power when he’s fully developed. Bogaerts reached AA at 19 and has far less questions about if he can handle shortstop, at least for the time being.

6. Gerrit Cole		RHP	Pirates
H/W: 6’4″ 215	2012 Ranking: 5	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Cole’s fastball is a doozy and reaches as high as 102, although it can be flat and lacking command. That, with his exceptional changeup and slider make him a true ace.

7. Jose Fernandez		RHP	Marlins
H/W: 6’2″ 220	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Having four plus pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider), along with great peripheral numbers makes Fernandez’s future tantalizing. At just 20, he has an extremely high ceiling.

8. Jameson Taillon		RHP	Pirates
H/W: 6’6″ 225	2012 Ranking: 11	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Taillon has tremendous stuff with inconsistencies you’d expect from a 21-year old. Very reminiscent of Gerrit Cole in his final year at UCLA; another ace.

9. Byron Buxton		CF	Twins
H/W: 6’1″ 188	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Arguably the top talent in the 2012 draft, Buxton is crazy athletic with elite speed, a huge arm, big bat and future power. Give him time, Buxton is the complete package.

10. Carlos Correa		SS	Astros
H/W: 6’4″ 190	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
The actual top pick in 2012 draft, Correa is a strong defender despite his 6’4” frame. He may have to switch to third if he beefs up too much, but he’ll hit for average and big power.

11. Zack Wheeler		RHP	Mets
H/W: 6’3″ 180	2012 Ranking: 27	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Wheeler has great velocity and a plus curveball to go with a solid slider and changeup. Top-of-the-rotation future, but the Mets have not pushed him very quickly so far.

12. Christian Yelich		CF	Marlins
H/W: 6’4″ 189	2012 Ranking: 34	Age: 21	B/T: L/R
All five of his tools are above-average, and he should be able stick in center field, despite switching from first base. He’s going to hit for a very good average; if power develops, he’ll be a star.

13. Miguel Sano		3B	Twins
H/W: 6’2″ 245	2012 Ranking: 19	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
He’s patient, has a cannon arm, and has the most raw power in the entire minors. Sano strikes out too much (contact has been an issue), and his frame and footwork may move him to first.

14. Trevor Bauer		RHP	Indians
H/W: 6’1″ 185	2012 Ranking: 10	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Bauer is very smart with polarizing attitude that helped him fall out of favor in Arizona. Regardless, he has number one starter stuff, and his command needs polish. He’ll be just fine.

15. Mike Zunino		C	Mariners
H/W: 6’2″ 220	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Zunino is great all-around with plus bat, intriguing power, and strong defense. As far as catchers go, he’s the complete package and nearly ready to help out at the major league level.

16. Travis d’Arnaud		C	Mets
H/W: 6’2″ 195	2012 Ranking: 16	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
A solid defender with a strong arm. The man has plus raw power and a nice bat–the only thing to worry about are injuries. He’s had more than 280 plate appearances in two of his five seasons.

17. Taijuan Walker		RHP	Mariners
H/W: 6’4″ 195	2012 Ranking: 21	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Walker has an athletic frame and his numbers are deceptively bad since he reached AA at the age of 20. He has a very high ceiling thanks to a plus fastball and secondary offerings.

18. Shelby Miller		RHP	Cardinals
H/W: 6’3″ 195	2012 Ranking: 6	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Had a bit of an off-year, but his fastball still reaches the upper 90s to go with a plus curveball. He can be homer prone, but Miller is ready to pitch in the majors as a starter now.

19. Julio Teheran		RHP	Braves
H/W: 6’2″ 175	2012 Ranking: 4	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Another guy who had a bad year but reached the majors at a young age. Teheran features a plus fastball, and changeup, although his command and curveball could improve.

20. Tyler Skaggs		LHP	D-Backs
H/W: 6’4″ 195	2012 Ranking: 18	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Skaggs has an above-average fastball, a plus curveball, and a potentially plus changeup. His floor is relatively high since he’s already been able to knock out lefties and righties.

21. Addison Russell		SS	Athletics
H/W: 6’0″ 185	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
A hidden gem of the 2012 draft, Russell is a potential five-tool player with real star power. He has shown shaky footwork before, but he’s athletic enough to stick at shortstop.

22. George Springer		CF	Astros
H/W: 6’4″ 2405	2012 Ranking: 40	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
People knock him because of his age and strikeout issues, but that Astros have been slow to promote him is not his fault. He’s an absolute five-tool prospect, although he may only hit .270.

23. Archie Bradley		RHP	D-Backs
H/W: 6’4″ 225	2012 Ranking: 15	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Bradley has a nasty fastball-curveball combo and great size and athleticism. There’s no doubting his ace upside despite, but he’s got a ways to go and command issues to iron out.

24. Billy Hamilton		CF	Reds
H/W: 6’1″ 160	2012 Ranking: 49	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Hamilton is absurdly speedy (155 steals last year) and great on-base skills thanks to plus bat speed. He’s been moved off shortstop to center field, where he can really show off his legs.

25. Francisco Lindor		SS	Indians
H/W: 5’11″ 175	2012 Ranking: 50	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Lindor is quietly an outstanding defender with plus speed and on-base skills. He is very mature for his age (19), but one hopes he will develop more power by the time he hits the show.

26. Anthony Rendon		3B	Nationals
H/W: 5’11″ 170	2012 Ranking: 23	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Rendon has been hampered by ankle injuries (not good news if the Nats want him at second), but he rakes when he’s healthy. He’s got great instincts and discipline but just solid power.

27. Javier Baez		SS	Cubs
H/W: 6’1″ 205	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Baez has proved to be a surprisingly strong defender considering his muscly frame. He’s an aggressive hitter with plus bat speed good raw power, and playable speed on the bases.

28. Lucas Giolito		RHP	Nationals
H/W: 6’6″ 225	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Giolito was nearly first-ever high school pitcher taken first overall before he hurt his elbow. Still, his raw stuff is fantastic with triple-digit heat and a plus plus curveball. Not worried about his future health.

29. Carlos Martinez		RHP	Cardinals
H/W: 6′ 165	2012 Ranking: 28	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Despite his small frame, Martinez touches 100 mph regularly. His plus fastball actually draws a good amount of grounders, although his command just okay at the moment.

30. Jonathan Singleton		1B	Astros
H/W: 6’2″ 215	2012 Ranking: 39	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Singleton is suspended 50 games for marijuana use, but that doesn’t hurt his value. His hit tool is great, and power should come soon, although he needs more patience. His plus arm is wasted at first base.

31. Nick Castellanos		3B	Tigers
H/W: 6’4″ 210	2012 Ranking: 42	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Castellanos hits very well for average and home run power should develop soon. He does need more patience at the plate. Detroit is playing him some in right field so Miguel Cabrera can boot more balls at third, which makes little sense to me.

32. Kevin Gausman		RHP	Orioles
H/W: 6’4″ 185	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Gausman has high potential with a plus fastball and changeup. Assuming his breaking ball develops more, he’ll be another ace Baltimore can pair with Dylan Bundy.

33. Jackie Bradley Jr.		CF	Red Sox
H/W: 5’10″ 180	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: L/R
An elite defender with remarkable instincts. Plays above his hit tool, which is good to start with, and above-average speed. He wields little power now, which would be the key to stardom.

34. Kyle Zimmer		RHP	Royals
H/W: 6’3″ 215	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
One of the best 2012 college arms. Zimmer has a projectable frame, good command, and great stuff. His velocity uptick into the upper-90s really helped his draft stock, value.

35. Matt Barnes		RHP	Red Sox
H/W: 6’2″ 205	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
His fastball works in the upper-90s with nice movement. Barnes wields a plus curve and control with a #2 starter ceiling. He hasn’t been tested at all above high-A, where he dominated.

36. Gregory Polanco		CF	Pirates
H/W: 6’4″ 170	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
A plus defender with plus speed and power. Polanco’s swing can get a bitlong, but he surprisingly doesn’t strikeout much. He’s always been toolsy, but didn’t start producing until now–boom or bust?

37. Aaron Sanchez		RHP	Blue Jays
H/W: 6’4″ 190	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Sanchez has three plus pitches including some upper-90s heat. His overpowering stuff covers up poor control, although he has plenty of time to correct that. Big-time upside.

38. Mason Williams		CF	Yankees
H/W: 6′ 150	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 21	B/T: L/R
Williams is an elite defender, with plus speed and an improving bat. He has a great approach on both sides of the ball, and may develop more power along the way.

39. Gary Sanchez		C	Yankees
H/W: 6’2″ 220	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Sanchez is an aggressive power hitter with a plus bat. His bulky frame leads to long transitions, which he makes up for with a cannon of an arm. He should still stick behind the plate.

40. Taylor Guerrieri		RHP	Rays
H/W: 6’3″ 195	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: L/R
Guerrieri has been heavily limited by the Rays, but he’s a potential ace with plus fastball and curveball. The youngster has impeccable control but has only reached low-A.

41. Albert Almora		CF	Cubs
H/W: 6’1″ 170	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Almora has above-average tools across the board; he just needs to refine his plate discipline and he’ll be on track. The man’s extremely polished for his young age (18).

42. David Dahl		CF	Rockies
H/W: 6’2″ 185	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 18	B/T: L/R
Another pleasant surprise out of the 2012 draft, Dahl is extremely athletic with five-tool potential. He’s not nearly as raw as once thought–a complete hitter with a chance to stick in CF as he fills out.

43. Alen Hanson		SS	Pirates
H/W: 5’11″ 152	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: B/R
Hanson shows great defense and speed tools, but hasn’t used them well yet (lots of errors and times caught stealing). He’s a legit switch-hitter who will hit for a high average and some power.

44. Bubba Starling		CF	Royals
H/W: 6’4″ 180	2012 Ranking: 14	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Starling is an elite athlete with high ceiling who hasn’t played up to his potential. He has plus power and bat speed, but his swing has some mechanical issues that lead to big strikeout totals.

45. Jorge Soler		RF	Cubs
H/W: 6’3″ 205	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
This guy has enormous upside with massive power, a big arm, and impressive speed for his frame. The key for him will be adjusting to off-speeds and narrowing his pitch selection.

46. Austin Hedges		C	Padres
H/W: 6’1″ 190	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Hedges is an outstanding defender with surprising power. He could stand to take a few more pitches. He’s unlikely to fail, but also doesn’t ooze upside like the guy two spots below him.

47. Aaron Hicks		CF	Twins
H/W: 6’2″ 185	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 23	B/T: B/R
All five tools are finally setting in; Hicks is finally fulfilling his elite promise. At worst, he’s a plus defender with great speed and plate discipline. He always seems to start slowly.

48. Rymer Liriano		RF	Padres
H/W: 6′ 211	2012 Ranking: 32	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
The definition of boom or bust, although I’m a big fan. He’s got plus speed, raw power, and bat speed but poor pitch recognition. Defensively, he’s angy with cannon arm. You have to love the tools.

49. Delino DeShields Jr.		2B	Astros
H/W: 5’9″ 188	2012 Ranking: NR	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
DeShields Jr. is an elite athlete with insane speed, only overlooked because of Billy Hamilton’s ridiculousness. His bat is very much improved, and he can play either second base or center field.

50. Courtney Hawkins		RF	White Sox
H/W: 6’3″ 220	2012 Ranking: IE	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
I’m a big fan, and I don’t get why Hawkins doesn’t get more hype. He’s a tremendous athlete with plus power and arm strength to go with good speed. Improve plate discipline is the one big issue.

Categories: MLB | 2 Comments

What Do I Stand For?

Posted on February 17, 2013 by benweinrib

There’s a saying that you should never meet your heroes because they might let you down. I’m not sure if I totally subscribe to that theory because I’ve gotten the chance to meet some of my favorite writers (Keith Law and Jonah Keri) and favorite athletes (Tyler Beede and DeAngelo Williams), and they’ve only raised my perception of them. Moreover, the saying should go: you should be cautious when you meet your heroes because they might let you down.

In the last thirty days, though, we’ve seen three major idols crumble and fall because of poor choices, lying, and lying about poor choices. In mid-January, Lance Armstrong finally admitted that he doped—but he claimed he didn’t cheat after 2005. He was emotional and remorseful, but he was also a lying cheater. We wanted to believe that Lance was clean—despite the fact that quite literally every other cyclist was dirty—because we wanted an American hero.

A man who overcame cancer and dominated a sport by winning seven straight Tour de Frances. Overwhelming evidence be damned, this man had to be telling the truth because, after all, he threatened to sue people who “slandered” his name. His reactions to accusations of doping were so visceral that he had to be telling the truth. But no, he turned out to be just like the rest of the cyclists. A cyclist who overcame cancer.

A few days later, another idol went crashing to the ground, this one in possibly the most bizarre way possible. Manti Te’o found his way into the hearts of Americans across the nation because of the heartbreaking story of his girlfriend—Lennay Kekua—who was in a terrible car accident, got leukemia, then died six hours after Te’o’s grandma died. Fueled by the terrible losses, Te’o went on to lead Notre Dame with 12 tackles en route to a 20-3 victory over Michigan State, nine more wins and an undefeated regular season, and nearly a Heisman trophy. Except there was one problem: Lennay Kekua never existed. She was a hoax.

The most inspirational story of the college football season was soiled because the Notre Dame linebacker fell in love with a girl over twitter and pretended to have met her and introduced her to his family. That is, unless he was in on the hoax the entire time, which would make him the most histrionic, attention-seeking, twisted player in recent memory. In one moment, Te’o went from sympathetic, inspiration figure to the laughingstock of the sports world, an unenviable mess.

Pistorius appeared in a Nike ad featuring the catch phrase “I am the bullet in the chamber.” The multi-billion dollar industry took all of twelve seconds to take one down.

Then comes the most recent letdown, the sad story of South African Olympian Oscar Pistorius. The man is the first double leg amputee to compete in the Olympics, earning him the nickname “Blade Runner.” His inspirational story touched millions of people—from South Africans to disabled people to sports fans in general—until he (accidentally) shot and killed his model girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp. The jury remains out on whether or not he killed her on purpose—he claims he thought she was a burglar—but he is forever unclean in the eyes of many people. How can you look up to someone who killed someone they loved, even if they overcame seemingly insurmountable odds to reach the pinnacle of modern athletics?

In the end, it just seems that we cannot trust athletes and look up to them now. Maybe the saddest story of them all is the recent antics of LeBron James. The All-Star forward is trying to get into the good graces of sports fans’ hearts after leaving frigid Cleveland for beautiful Miami in order to better his chances to win a championship by playing the best basketball of his entire life. The shameless James is even working harder than ever to get teammates involved, rebounding at the highest rate of his career, and scored 30 points on 60% shooting or better in six straight games in a sad attempt to raise his image.

In the end, it’s really athletes like LeBron who will do anything for attention that make fans sick and leave us wondering if we should and can look up to any athlete.

Categories: College Football, NBA, Other | 1 Comment

Tyler Beede (Young Beedah) Knuckle Cast

Posted on February 7, 2013 by benweinrib

It’s been a solid five months since my last podcast, but I’m really excited about the third installment of The Knuckle Cast. This episode features my interview with Vanderbilt sophomore pitcher Tyler Beede, who was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB draft but came to Vanderbilt instead.

As you’ll soon find out, Beede also raps, where he goes by the name Young Beedah. As a fan of Vanderbilt, baseball, and rap, Beede may be my favorite student-athlete on campus.

Luckily, I got the chance to interview the right-hander for a feature I’m writing for the Vanderbilt Hustler baseball preview, which is coming out in about a week. In the mean time, I hope you enjoy the third episode of The Knuckle Cast.

The Knuckle Cast Episode #3

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The True Top Golfer

Posted on January 30, 2013 by benweinrib

There’s an ongoing debate about who the best golfer in the world is. Is it Tiger Woods, the man who has shattered all sorts of records, including the most white trash girls used to cheat on a wife (highlighted by such classy ladies as Raychel, Loredana, Joslyn, and Cori)? Is it Rory McIlroy, the 23-year old up and comer, who sits atop the World Golf Rankings? Or maybe even is it Freddy “Boom Boom” Couples? The choice is simple, and he’s also my favorite golfer.

Past vs. Present or Present vs. Present?

The sports world has been enamored with Rory McIlroy lately. He won the U.S. Open at the age of 22, something we haven’t seen since, well, Tiger Woods won the Masters at age of 21. See, sometimes we forget just how great players have been because of off-the-field incidents. With Adrian Peterson nearly breaking Eric Dickerson’ single-season rushing record, we forget how great O.J. Simpson was. The man rushed for 2,003 yards in 14 games—that extrapolates to over 2,289 yards in 16 games, which would have crushed Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards. We just forget about Simpson because of a few small run-ins with the law.

Tiger Woods may not have won a major since he won the U.S. Open in 2008, and he may have gone 107 weeks without a victory of any kind following his admitted infidelity, but that doesn’t tarnish his great legacy. Tiger, the youngest golfer to ever win The Masters. Tiger, the youngest golfer to ever complete a career grand slam, and the only golfer to win all four in a row. Tiger, the quickest player to fifty tournament wins. It’s impossible to make the case that Tiger Woods is the greatest husband and father in the world, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still the most dominant golfer of our time. And just because Big Lurch got high on PCP and ate his girlfriend’s face doesn’t mean he’s not the greatest rapper of all-time.

There are lots of ways you can nitpick at Tiger’s game. For instance, he’s never won a major while trailing after 54 holes. Sure, but he’s also the greatest closer in the game with a 14-1 record when he has at least a share of the lead going into the final round. That’s a fair trade-off. Yes, he does get angry and he does curse at fans and he does throw clubs when people take pictures during his backswing. But none of that negatively affects how dominant he was at his peak, and how dominant he may be, as he is only 37 years old. Jack Nicklaus won his final major at the age of 46, so I’d give Tiger a fairly solid chance to win four to five more majors in the next ten years.

Tiger is the lone golfer that is his own brand. Phil Mickelson may be very popular, but there aren’t too many dials being turned because Lefty is leading with four holes to go. Hell, Tiger Woods has the official PGA Tour video game named after him. He has (or had, in some cases) sponsorships from Gatorade, Nike, GM, Titleist, American Express, Buick, and TAG Heuer. Not only did he revolutionize the sport by forcing courses to move back their tees, he also monopolized the media aspect of golf, becoming even bigger than the sport itself at times.

Rory McIlroy may end up breaking the record for most majors in a lifetime. That record may still belong to Jack Nicklaus, or it may be Eldrick’s. McIlroy is a golf talent we haven’t seen since young phenoms Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler. Except none of that trio has lived up to expectations yet. Maybe McIlroy will become the greatest of all time one day. But he doesn’t have the pedigree, and at this point in his career—even if he officially the number one golfer in the world—I find it hard to put McIlroy ahead of Tiger.

(This was written as an assignment at Vanderbilt. Gotta love when you can write about sports for school.)

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The New Peyton Manning?

Posted on January 12, 2013 by benweinrib

The first round of the playoffs went nicely for me. I’m bout to pop some tags, only got 280 apples in my pocket. Home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Game:

Ravens (+10) over BRONCOS

Yes, the Broncos might be the best team in the NFL. Yes, the Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Yes, the Broncos have won 11 straight games. But I’m taking the Ravens here.

Peyton Manning, as I have always said, is one of the greatest regular season quarterbacks of all-time. He has a 65.2% completion percentage with a 5.6% touchdown rate and a 2.7% interception rate, but most importantly a .688 winning percentage. Come playoff time, though, he plays much worse. His postseason record is 9-10 with a 61.2% completion percentage, 3.3% touchdown rate and 2.0% interception rate after the Wild Card round. His lone Super Bowl win came against Sexy Rexy Grossman.

Say what you want about Joe Flacco, but he’s led his team better in the playoffs historically than Peyton has. Flacco has a 6-4 record, though he should be 7-3 if not for Lee Evans’ dropped touch down in last year’s AFC Championship game.

Also, chew on this: today’s game will be sitting around 17 degrees. Could it possibly be an advantage for a 36-year old quarterback who has undergone four neck surgeries within two years and has to wear gloves for this game? Peyton is 0-3 in game under 21 degrees, and he never had to play in poor conditions when he was in Indianapolis.

Baltimore has the emotional edge with Play for Ray, and I’m not willing to give up a double-digit line to take Peyton in a cold playoff game. But I’m not sure Baltimore has enough to win.

Prediction: Broncos 24 Ravens 23

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Game:

NINERS (-3) over Packers

There’s been a lot of talk swirling lately about how not enough is being made about the Niners passing on hometown kid Aaron Rodgers for their first overall pick in 2005. Well not nearly is being made about the Niners beating down Green Bay 30-22 in Week 1–without Colin Kaepernick.

In a game of a high-powered offense against a high-powered defense, I look back to San Francisco’s Week 15 win against New England. The Patriots are better on both sides of the ball than Green Bay, and San Francisco still managed to win a shootout. One major difference, though, is that the Patriots have a strong run defense, while the Packers do not.

In order for the Packers to win this game, they’ll need to get out ahead big early on. If they grab a double-digit lead quickly, the Niners won’t be able to pound the ball against Green Bay’s weak run D. The Packers can then play more against the pass–San Fran is missing Mario Manningham–and take the Niners away from their strength on offense. But if they fall behind early, the Packers will get Gored up the middle.

Ultimately, I’m a believer in Kaepernick–3rd best QBR this year, 9th best since 2008–and I think Green Bay will have problems stopping the Smith brothers, Patrick Willis, and NaVorro Bowman. We’ve seen how this ends already.

Prediction: Niners 30 Packers 22

KFC Double Down Game:

PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Texans

Picking the Patriots in the playoffs, a specialty of mine.

How can you not love this Patriots team? They dominate point differential. They dominate turnover differential. They have the best quarterback-head coach combination in the league. They finally have a running game. Their defense looks semi-competent.

Then we have the Texans. Matt Schaub has not looked good since before Thanksgiving, and Arian Foster has had one decent game since December. The team faded down stretch worse than a 2-year old Expo marker, culminating by them losing to the Colts by 12 in Week 17 and losing their first-round bye and home field advantage. Then they barely squeaked by the lowly Bengals 19-13.

This line may seem high, but then consider that Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare for the Texans, while Gary Kubiak had just one week to prepare for the Patriots. This is the kind of statement game the Patriots have been winning this year. Say, like, Week 14 in their 42-14 annihilation.

For the third time this year, I’ll write this paragraph: “This is going to be the game the whole NFL recognizes the Patriots as the best team in the league. And there’s nothing you can do about it.”

Prediction: Patriots 34 Texans 16

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Seahawks (+2.5) over FALCONS

When is the last time there was a number one seed with less respect than the Falcons? The lack of respect is deserved (or is it that any respect is not-so-deserved?), but the point still remains. They were never that dominant, they can’t run the ball, and their defense is just suspect.

Peyton Manning’s regular season vs. postseason winning percentage: .688 vs. .474. Matt Ryan’s? .718 vs. .000 (0-3).

That said, Matt Ryan had an amazing year. He’s never been great in the playoffs, but he was great this regular season. Maybe he’s got a bit of Peyton in him, for better or for worse.

Then we have the Seahawks, a team that went under-the-radar for most of the season until the busted out 150 points over three weeks to end the season. They have no weakness, especially now that Russell Wilson has broken out as of late, notably with the long ball. And just like in the Niners/Packers game, unless the Falcons go ahead early, the Falcons are in trouble because Seahawks can just pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch against Atlanta’s weak run defense.

The biggest key to me in this game is the Seahawks cornerbacks. The main source of offense for the Falcons will be the pass–because is sure won’t come from Michael Turner–and the Seahawks have the tallest secondary in the league. Roddy White and Julio Jones measure in at 6′ and 6’3″ and use their height to leverage big plays. That won’t be the case against 6’3″ Richard Sherman and 6’4″ Brandon Browner.

If the Seahawks do, indeed, shut down Matt Ryan’s passing attack, Atlanta won’t have a chance. Honestly, I’m surprised this line is so high, and everyone should know this season is destined for a Seahawks/Packers NFC Championship game. Wait, now I messed up the other NFC pick…

Prediction: Seahawks 31 Falcons 20

Overall record: 129-124-5

Last week: 3-1

Apple Total: 280

Apple Total Last Week: 75

Categories: NFL | Leave a comment

1. Jurickson Profar

2. Wil Myers

3. Oscar Taveras

4. Dylan Bundy

5. Xander Bogaerts

6. Gerrit Cole

7. Jose Fernandez

8. Jameson Taillon

9. Byron Buxton

10. Carlos Correa

11. Zack Wheeler

12. Christian Yelich

13. Miguel Sano

14. Trevor Bauer

15. Mike Zunino

16. Travis d’Arnaud

17. Taijuan Walker

18. Shelby Miller

19. Julio Teheran

20. Tyler Skaggs

21. Addison Russell

22. George Springer

23. Archie Bradley

24. Billy Hamilton

25. Francisco Lindor

26. Anthony Rendon

27. Javier Baez

28. Lucas Giolito

29. Carlos Martinez

30. Jonathan Singleton

31. Nick Castellanos

32. Kevin Gausman

33. Jackie Bradley Jr.

34. Kyle Zimmer

35. Matt Barnes

36. Gregory Polanco

37. Aaron Sanchez

38. Mason Williams

39. Gary Sanchez

40. Taylor Guerrieri

41. Albert Almora

42. David Dahl

43. Alen Hanson

44. Bubba Starling

45. Jorge Soler

46. Austin Hedges

47. Aaron Hicks

48. Rymer Liriano

49. Delino DeShields Jr.

50. Courtney Hawkins

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