Monthly Archives: October 2010

How many people can honestly say they thought the Rangers would meet the Giants in the World Series? How many people can actually say they thought either would even make the postseason? Certainly not me.

Going into the season, it was clear to me that the two best teams in the league were the Red Sox and Phillies while the Giants and Rangers were the third best teams in their division. I still think that the Phillies are better than Giants and the Red Sox would have beaten Texas had they not lost Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and V-Mart for most of the season. Unfortunately, the season did not pan out as I thought it would, but here we are at the peak of baseball competition.

To be honest, this is the last matchup Major League Baseball wanted at the start of the League Championship Series. Another Yankees/Phillies World Series was within its grasp; two major markets with great followings would draw huge ratings and bring in massive revenue. But then Cliff Lee and Cody Ross happened. And now we have the Rangers meeting the Giants in the World Series.

People have and will complain about this “bad” World Series matchup. I’ll be honest, Tommy Hunter and Madison Bumgarner don’t exactly excite me either, but if you are a baseball fan, you will watch the World Series no matter who plays. There will definitely be exciting games (pencil in games 1 and 5).

No matter who is playing in the World Series, Major League Baseball has reason for concern. Case and point: Monday, October 18th. That night, it was Game 3 of the ALCS up against Monday Night Football. Normally, one would guess that the NFL would get higher ratings then a middle-of-the-series playoff game, but these were different circumstances. Cliff Lee was pitching lights-out against the Yankees while the Titans were tearing apart the Jaguars. The best pitcher in baseball going up against the most popular team while the two must un-watchable teams not named the Bills played. Guess which game had higher ratings?

Cliff Lee vs. Yankees 6.5
MNF Titans/Jags: 7.2

There are many reasons why this happened. For starters, NFL is far more popular, especially with the emergence of gambling and fantasy football. But there really is no reason for baseball to sink that low. Not in my mind, at least.

Like it or not, either the Rangers and Giants will be hoisting the 106th World Series trophy within the next two weeks. It’s going to be a classic matchup of great pitching and great hitting, so lets get right down to the game-by game breakdowns.

Game 1: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
It’s hard to pick a better matchup to start the World Series than Lee, who is lights out in the postseason, against Lincecum, who has won the last two NL Cy Young Awards. When it comes down to it, Lincecum is more prone to giving up big innings than Lee is, and the Rangers have a better lineup anyways. This game will be low scoring, but Texas will ultimately come out on top.

Don't get too excited about Cody Ross, the Marlins gave him up for nothing. The Marlins. For Nothing.

Game 2: C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
After falling down 0-1, the Giants will need to pull out a win in Game 2. What better pitcher to have up than Matt Cain? Cain is steady, he gets the job done, and he doesn’t waste much time doing so. C.J. Wilson has really come into his own this month, but I expect the Giants’ bit righty bats like Posey, Ross, and Sandoval to mash in this game. As a side note, I don’t know if we should be ecstatic or terrified to see Vladi Guerrero back in right field for the games in San Fran.

Game 3: Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Poor Jonathan Sanchez, yet another player infected with A.J. Burnett syndrome. Oh, what is A.J. Burnett syndrome, you ask. Its a strange condition when you can either throw a 2-hit shutout or get lit up for six runs in two innings. Other effects of AJBS include inability to consistently hit the strike zone, wild temper, and moody brooding in the dugout. Baseball fly far in Arlington, this one will be a win for Texas.

Game 4: Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 4 is the marquee game for sure. Who wouldn’t get excited for two soft-tossing, consistently average, extreme pitch-to-contact pitchers? While this won’t be the favorite game for everyone, it will most likely be the highest scoring. Neither starter will go more than six innings, and hopefully we’ll get to see an inning plus of Brian Wilson’s beard close the game. In the end, however, I would rather have Bumgarner than Hunter, and I think the Giants win a close high-scoring affair to even the series at two apiece.

Game 5: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
I don’t think people realize how great of a playoff pitcher Cliff Lee is. He’s started eight playoff games over the last two seasons and won 7 of them, three against the Yankees. His ERA is a minuscule 1.26 and he owns an equally impressive 0.73 WHIP. He is lights out, untouchable, lock down, game over good. The only reasons doubters are saying he is beatable in the playoffs is that he’s bound to crack some time. Yeah, right. Its safe to pencil in Lee for his second win of the series as the Giants’ bats can’t solve this conundrum.

Game 6: C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Here is where home field advantage finally comes into play: would you rather try to win one game on the road or two at home? The Rangers know the answer to this question, and the answer is C.J. Wilson. The Rangers could face losing Cliff Lee this off-season, and Wilson would be the man to step into their ace role. This game, he proves that he can be the man in Texas. Josh Hamilton will come through against Cain early, and Texas will win their first World Series on their first try.

Ultimately, this series comes down to the fact that the Rangers have the better offense and the best pitcher. Cliff Lee is money in the bank, and C.J. Wilson and crew aren’t so bad either. The Giants offense is the American League equivalent of their neighbors the Athletics; there’s only so much great pitching can help with.

Whether it was the acquisition of Lee, the purchase of the team by Nolan Ryan, or the unity manager Ron Washington brings, this team was meant to win. Texas has the young slugger who’s been in the deepest, darkest place imaginable and back, the unbeatable pitcher, and a lineup filled with veteran players who are flat-out-winners.

I have to say, the Giants are very lucky to be in this position. While I will say that the Rangers are clearly worse than the Phillies and the Giants were able to beat Philly in six games, San Francisco can’t keep riding their hot pitching forever. They are going to fall a bat or two short this series; a series that will come down to the fact that they can’t out-do Cliff Lee.

As a closing note, the Rangers, Red Sox, and every other team needs to send a fruit basket to Yankee Nation as a whole, who offended Cliff Lee’s wife so bad that it could sway the ace away from signing with the Bombers. Thank you, rude Yankee fans, for potentially saving Major League Baseball from Death-by-Yankees.

Everyone needs redemption one day or another. Brett Favre probably would like to play well to save the Vikings’ 1-3 season and move attention away from his Jets fiasco. Randy Moss and Deion Branch want a new and better beginning in their second stint with their old team.

Let’s be honest here, I’m having a rough year picking against the spread. Through the first five weeks, I’m already eight games under .500, but I am 3-1 in my Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Weeks. This is where I turn my season around. This is my Brett Favre picture perfect moment — er — redemption.

Seahawks (+6.5) over BEARS
Am I the only one who doesn’t believe in the Bears? They have no dependable receivers and a quickly aging defense. Except last week, Matt Forte has averaged only two yards per carry. Four wins don’t really matter anyways when you play the Lions and Panthers in two of them.

Ravens (+2.5) over PATRIOTS
Who made this line? The Ravens are in the top-3 Super Bowl favorites now, while the Patriots just lost Randy Moss. What happened the last time the Ravens came to Foxborough? The Ravens won by 19 in the playoffs. I still believe in the Patriots this year, but I’m taking the Ravens all the way, especially if you give me nearly a field goal.

Lions (+10.5) over GIANTS
I just don’t believe in the Giants. They are hot and cold. They lose to the Titans by 19 then beat the Texans by 24. Is Hakeem Nicks really this good? I’ll tell you this: the Lions will definitely keep this game within 11, just wait for Shaun Hill to chuck up balls to Megatron in junk time.

Falcons (+1.5) over EAGLES
How bad is it that Michael Vick can’t play against his former team? It’s bad enough that it will cost Philly the game. Atlanta is one of the best teams in the NFC without question, and a win here could put them atop the entire conference. Matt Ryan is going to take a big step up in this game; he’ll soon be a top-8 NFL quarterback.

STEELERS (-13.5) over Browns
It doesn’t matter how high this line is, I will always take Pittsburgh. Rookie Colt McCoy will be starting his first career game against the NFL’s top defense. Rumor has it that McCoy was so bad in training camp, the only reason he still had a job was the fact that he was their 3rd round pick. You’d think they’d just pound the ball down Pittsburgh’s throats, but do you actually think a banged up Peyton Hillis will be able to do much against the Steelers? Also, Big Ben is in great shape — ya think he’ll be excited to pick apart the Browns’ secondary at will?

PACKERS (-1.5) over Dolphins
Yes, the Packers have lost Jermichael Finley for the year. Yes, the Packers have lost Ryan Grant for the year. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. However, they are still a step above the Dolphins. Chad Henne has looked somewhat shaky and Ricky Williams has been non-existent all year. At home, I’ll take the Packers and their aerial attack.

Chargers (-8.5) over RAMS
The Chargers pulled a Chargers last week. Every year, they start extremely slow and lose to a Raiders-level team. The fans are crushed. Media goes back on their AFC West picks. And then San Diego turns their season around. 2 weeks ago, San Diego laid a beatdown on the Cards 41-10, only to lose to Oakland the very next week. There isn’t a more confusing team in the NFL, but since this is the Rams that we’re talking about, I’ll take the Chargers.

Saints (-5.5) over BUCS
You do realize these are the Bucs, right? I consider myself one of Josh Freeman’s biggest proponents (I said I’d rather have him the Sanchize of draft day), but he is nowhere close to being able to lead Tampa passed New Orleans right now. In a few years, I could see Freeman as a Big Ben-style QB, but in a few hours, I see him as a losing quarterback.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Chiefs
Like the Bears, records do lie. 3-1 doesn’t mean much when you play the Browns, Niners, and Chargers (in Week 1). Their defense isn’t great, and it will need to really step up to stop Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster. That just isn’t going to happen on the road.

The Raiders are so bad that an 0-5 team is favored over them by a touchdown.

NINERS (-6.5) over Raiders
Wait, is Vegas really favoring the 0-5 Niners by a touchdown? Oh, yeah, they’re playing the Raiders.

Jets (-3.5) over BRONCOS
How bad is the Broncos’ running game? Their three leading rushers (Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and Laurency Maroney) are averaging 2.8, 1.9, and 1.9 yards per carry. The immortal Kenneth Darby is averaging 3 yards per carry. Now put them against the Jets’ hungry D. That’s not a good set up.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Cowboys
Is this the best matchup of 1-3 teams ever? These two teams could be the most talented clubs in the NFC, but they both have terrible coaches. Wade Phillips has no control over his team while Brad Childress looks clueless on the sideline 60% of the time every time. The head coaches, however, will not play as big of a roles as Mr. Randy Moss. Moss still hasn’t forgiven the Cowboys for passing on him in the draft. Moss has won all seven of his matchups against Dallas (even while he was in Oakland) and has eleven TDs total. I’m guessing Moss will have a huge game and lead Minny to a huge home victory.

Colts (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Are you really going to go against Peyton in primetime? I didn’t think so. This is the Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week.

Titans (-3.5) over JAGS
Usually, teams play their best in primetime at home. This doesn’t really matter, however, when you are the Jags. Its hard to get hyped up for playing in front of 12,000 fans on a Monday night.

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 32-44

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 3-1

We’ve all had to make that choice of riding a streak out or jumping off the bandwagon. It’s the age-old question: if you flip ten straight heads, is the next one more likely to be a heads or tails? One person is going to say that tail is due, but the next person will almost certainly stick with the “hot coin.” But both people are wrong. Unless this coin is double-sided, each flip is completely independent and has a 50-50 chance of landing on heads or tails.

While sports aren’t as simple as a flip of a coin, you can apply the same principles to streaks and slides. But do streaks and slides even exist?

Let’s take for example perennial slow starter Mark Teixeira. At the start of this season, most people saw him as a .300 hitter. After the first month of the season, he was hitting .136. Going forward, there were three realistic trains of thought as to how he would finish the year:

1) He was projected to hit .300, so he will hit .330 the rest of the way and finish the year right on schedule.

2) He will hit .300 the rest of the way and finish around .280.

3) This just isn’t his year; he’ll hit .260 the rest of the year and finish around .230.

Which is the right answer? Clearly, he wasn’t going to continue hitting just .136 on the year, but there is no definitive answer (although the second choice seems most realistic). Tex actually ended the year hitting just .256; he hit his career average of .285 the rest of the way. So what does this mean? Streaks are a bit overrated, and eventually everything evens out.

Take a look at the two players most often labeled as “playoff clutch”: Derek Jeter and David Ortiz.

Derek Jeter career regular season (.314 AVG, .385 OBP, .452 SLG)
Derek Jeter career post season (.312, .381, .475)

David Ortiz career regular season (.281, .376, .543)
David Ortiz career post season (.283, .388, .520)

Notice anything different? Probably not. Both players’ numbers are shockingly similar from April until November. Again, streaks and slides do exist, but they are largely overblown, as each at-bat is a separate match up.

So the next time you hear an announcer say that Player X is on a fill-in-the-blank hit streak, take it with a grain of salt. Player X isn’t seeing the ball any better, he’s not wearing special goggles or using a corked bat. He’s just the same hitter who may be facing easier pitching, or feeling more confident.

In the end, everything will even out. When the Padres won 10 of 11 in August, it took them a matter of days before tailing off into a ten game losing streak. Nobody in baseball wins over 90 percent of the time; everything will eventually even out

New York Yankees (4) at Texas Rangers (3)

Are these the most polar opposite teams in postseason play? The Rangers just won their first playoff series while they Yankees have won a mere 27 championships and countless series victories. It’s the grumpy old grandpa and the over-excited youngster. This one should be interesting.

Of course, the Yankees would luck out again. First, they won the Wild Card, but then were matched up against the always-over-matched Twins. Then, the Rays and Rangers took their series to five games, having to pitch their aces in the last game. The Yankees now get to sit at home and wait, not having to face Cliff Lee until Game 3.

How important is Cliff Lee to this series? New York was willing to give up prized prospect and hitting machine Jesus Montero to prevent this situation from happening. They were willing to give up a future cheap middle-of-the-order bat to have Cliff Lee one year earlier. This man is a special pitcher.

With Cliff Lee slated to pitch Game 3 and either Game 6 or 7 (depending on if the Rangers trail 3-2 when they return to Arlington), the Rangers will start in a huge hole. As good as C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have been this year, they aren’t trustworthy in big games. Only being able to pitch Cliff Lee twice in the latter half of the series could very likely cost them the series.

The Yankees will be listed as the underdogs (Texas has home field advantage), but they are clear favorites to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic. They have a stacked lineup filled with All-Stars, rising stars, and former stars. They’ve been there. They’ve done that. They are the model of a consistent offense.

In the playoffs, the best pitching will win. The Yankees have the big name guys whose talents may be a bit overstated while the Rangers have Cliff Lee plus no-name pitchers. So it will all come down to consistency in the end.

Which pitcher would you rather have in a Game 7 than Cliff Lee?

The importance of Cliff Lee cannot be overstated. Every time he toes the rubber, you know he’ll go 9 innings strong. This man may be the best playoff pitcher in decades. It’s just too bad for the Rangers that he can’t win games 1, 4, and 7 for them.

The Yankees’ pitching is in just as interesting of a situation as the Rangers’. CC Sabathia is great in the regular season; he is durable, he strikes out batters, and he is a driving force for his club. But for some reason, you can’t count on him in October. His ERA is 4.41 in the postseason with a 1.49 WHIP. Phil Hughes started off the year great with a 2.70 ERA until the summer began, only to end the year with a 4.88 ERA with a 4.66 home ERA. Andy Pettitte is all-time great in the playoffs, but he’s been banged up the entire back end of the season.

If the Rangers are going to win this series, they’ll need to split at home, as weird as that sounds. Unfortunately, with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis going, that will be a challenge. Cliff Lee’s Game 3 start will almost certainly be a win, but Tommy Hunter’s Game 4 start will be anything but inspiring.

In the end, the Yankees have too much hitting and experience not to win this series. I don’t really love their pitching, but after Cliff Lee, the Rangers have next to nothing. I see the Yankees taking both in Texas before taking down the Rangers in 5.

San Francisco Giants (2) at Philadelphia Phillies (1)

Where the ALCS is a matchup of great hitting teams, the NLCS is a matchup of supreme pitching teams. Halladay. Lincecum. Oswalt. Cain. Hamels. Especially when the teams travel west, this series will be lower scoring than a World Cup match.

Philadelphia is without a doubt the best team left in the postseason. If you can beat them when Doc Halladay is pitching, you have to go up against Roy Oswalt the next day. If you can manage to beat Oswalt, you have to take down Cole Hamels the next day. And if you can win those three games, you must be the National League All-Star team.

San Francisco doesn’t have too bad of a rotation, either. Tim Lincecum has been up-and-down this season, but after a horrific August, he picked up his game for a fantastic September. Jonathan Sanchez, like Lincecum, has been very boom or bust. In 17 of his 34 starts, he allowed one or no runs, but in twelve other starts, he allowed three or more runs. Matt Cain represents the most consistent of their top three starters; he’ll give up a few runs, but he will go seven or eight innings strong.

As much as I believe in Pat the Bat and Jose Guillen, I just can't go with the Giants powerhouse offense over the Phillies.

Philadelphia has a distinct edge in pitching, but an even bigger one on the hitting side. With three 30-homer hitters along with two speedy veterans, the Phillies have a complete lineup. As for the Giants, they have Buster Posey, Kung Fu Panda, and a bunch of 30-year olds. Doc, Oswalt, and Hamels aren’t going to be easily shaken up by the Vottos, Howards, and Fielders of baseball world, so don’t expect Pat the Bat, Jose Guillen, and Juan Uribe to put the Fear of God into Philly.

Like I said for the Reds, if a team is going to beat the Phillies, they need to score early to get to the Phillies’ bullpen as soon as possible. Once the Phillies’ starters get into a groove, you are not going to score. If you can see four innings of Chad Durbin, Danys Baez, and Jose Contreras, you have a much better chance of winning. Unfortunately, as long as Burrell and Guillen are getting serious playing time, I don’t see that happening.

The Phillies, plain and simple, just out-class the Giants. They are better in every phase of the game and they have home field advantage. They have quality. They have quantity. They have what it takes to win.

A sweep would be very hard for Philly, and I don’t see that happening. Philadelphia will take this one in 5, and they are my pick to bring home the hardware later this month.

I’ve always thought this, but I’ve never quite found the right way to put it. It happens across all sports, of course, not just in baseball. Teams on the East Coast are just better than the rest of the league.

12 of the last 16 World Series Champs. The three best teams in the majors. 4 of the top 5 payrolls in the league.

East Coast teams aren’t just better than the rest of the league, they are willing to go farther and spend more to win. So are these teams better because all of the money is on the East Coast? I wouldn’t say so, but it is a big factor.

The success of East Coast teams goes beyond baseball. In New England and along the Atlantic, everything is a business. People have worked hard going back centuries to the Puritans, and baseball is a way of life. As for the other side of the US, sports are more of a social event. Games are hardly ever sold out, and people go for the food and friends rather than the excitement of the game. The vibe of the city doesn’t ride on their team’s success as it does in the Northeast, and sports don’t seem to matter as much there.

Free Agents in all sports are showing. In the NBA, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, and Shaquille O’Neal all came east while no major free agent went to the West. The top three MLB free agents of 2009 (Matt Holliday, John Lackey, and Jason Bay) all stayed away from the west coast while two of them joined East Coast clubs. Even in football, Vince Wilfork and Jared Gaither stayed on the East Coast for a discount while Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby left the West Coast for their new homes.

The imbalance is clearly largest in Major League Baseball. Throughout the season, the top four teams have been the Rays, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox while the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mariners floundered at the bottom of the league. The AL East was by far the best division in the league, but the NL and AL West produced six poor teams.

The signs are everywhere, and they aren’t going away for a while: the best teams are in the east. My playoff picks reflect this new shift of power, and the World Series will reflect it too.

Cincinnati Reds (3) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (1)

On paper, it’s nearly impossible to make a case that the Phillies shouldn’t be the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series. They have three aces, a deep and talented lineup, and a been-there-done-that mentality. With a perfect balance of youth and experience, power, speed, and pitching, this team is ready to go.

The last time Cincy was in the playoffs, this guy stole 51 bases.

The Reds, on the other hand, are a completely different story. Often picked to finished third or worst in the Central, Cincy used its home ballpark to its advantage and slugged there way to their first playoff appearance in fifteen years. The Reds are new to the playoff atmosphere; only Bronson Arroyo, Ramon Hernandez, Orlando Cabrera, and Scott Rolen have played in the playoffs.

At first glance, the Phillies are going to be huge favorites in this series. They have better starters. They have better hitters. They have more experience. So in order for the Reds to overcome this Philly Phanatic-sized challenge, they need to make the Phillies play to their strengths.

What the Phillies have pitching-wise, the Reds don’t have. Philadelphia will outclass Cincy every game in terms of starting pitching; Edinson Volquez-Arroyo-Cueto won’t cut it against Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. But if the Reds can jump on one of the starters early, they’ll quickly expose the Phillies’ weak underbelly: the ‘pen.

Brad Lidge is by far the worst closer in the playoffs, even when he’s on his A-game. As Philly fans can attest, no lead under five is safe with him, but they really don’t have any better options. Ryan Madsen thrives in his eighth inning role, but can’t hit the strike zone when he goes in for the ninth. Journeymen J.C. Romero and Danys Baez are replacement-level reliever who found a roster spot on the NL East champion’s roster.

Scoring early hasn’t been a problem for Cincinnati this year. The Reds led the National League in scoring by a nice margin, largely thanks to MVP candidate Joey Votto’s emergence as one of the top young first basemen in the game and Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce’s reemergence. Putting runs on the board early will put pressure on the Phillies and manager Charlie Manuel, known oftentimes to make quick, poor decisions. Also, any way to get Jose Contreras into the game earlier can only help.

Things won’t be that easy for the Reds, though. You can make a great case that although the Phillies scored less runs, their offense (when healthy) is much stronger. With three starters able to go eight or nine innings strong, you can’t expect the Reds to continue to score five and six points per game. In October, pitching wins, and Philadelphia has a distinct edge there.

I see Philly taking Games 1 and 2 at home behind the strong pitching of Halladay and Oswalt, but losing Game 3 after the Reds tear apart Cole Hamels (Philly had better hope it doesn’t mess with his psyche). With Halladay going on regular rest, I see the Phillies closing out the Reds on the road as they move on to NLCS.

I really wanted to pick the Reds in the first round, and I would have taken them over the Braves had they finished with a better record than San Francisco. But that’s not how things shook out, and Cincinnati will have to wait ’til next year and pray for better pitching.

Atlanta Braves (4) at San Francisco Giants (2)

If you’re not from the Bay Area or the ATL, this series will be a snoozer. The Giants play in a top-five pitcher friendly ballpark with little in the way of offense. Atlanta is solid all around, but will be missing All-Stars Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. So get ready everybody! Get psyched for Tommy Hanson! Aubrey Huff! And everybody’s favorite All-Star…..Omar Infante!

The name of the game for the Braves and Giants this year has been run prevention. Finishing fourth and second in the league respectively in runs, both teams have put an emphasis on pitching and defense this season. While they were able to pitch there way to many wins, neither offense has much to brag about. Rookie of the Year candidates Jason Heyward (my NL ROY pick) and Buster Posey were the two bright spots this year, but the rest of the teams are filled with aging vets, has-beens, and uninspiring stopgaps.

After Posey, the rest of the Giants lineup looks pretty dreadful. Freddy Sanchez, Jose Guillen, and Pat “The Bat” Burrell look awfully old and shouldn’t be major contributors on a playoff team. Kung Fu Panda is a fraction of his rookie self — but not in weight. If you want to gauge how poor their offense has been, just look to the fact that their top three hitters were Burrell, Huff, and a rookie.

Atlanta has been solid all year. Not fantastic. Not average. Just Solid. While they will miss Chipper and Martin Prado a lot, most of their offense came from other places. Super prospect Jason Heyward has become the Braves’ best hitter, and Brian McCann continues to quietly work hard to put up big numbers. Mid-season acquisitions Derrek Lee and Alex Gonzalez have been fairly good since they landed in Atlanta, but they aren’t game changers anymore.

Interesting Note: Eric Hinske's team has reached the World Series each of the last three seasons (Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees)

The problem with Atlanta is that they have too many “eh” players. What do I mean? If you saw the graphic in the bottom corner of the screen that said “Coming up next: Eric Hinske, Rick Ankiel, Omar Infante” the only thing you could say is “eh.” They are uninspiring with little upside, but solid productivity. They won’t sell out games. They won’t draw viewers. But they do work and quietly do most of what they’re asked.

This series will be very low scoring, so ultimately it will come down to which pitchers can stay mistake free for the longest. Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson fit the safe-and-steady pitcher role who will only give up one to three runs over seven innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen. Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are just too inconsistent for my taste. Lincecum and Sanchez can both be lights out as they have demonstrated many times, but they are just as likely to blow up for five runs over three innings.

Consistency will end up winning this series, and consistency is on the Braves’ side. You just can’t depend on Zito, Burrell, Guillen, and the Giants bullpen and hope to go far in the playoffs. I don’t love the team the Braves are fielding, but they can play well night after night and shut you down once you get into the bullpen. At the end of the day, Atlanta has more talent and more motivation (Bobby Cox’s last season), and will ultimately take this series in 5.