If you’ve been paying attention to my picks this year, you’d know that things haven’t gone exactly as planned. I’m picking 48% of the games correctly, which isn’t so bad, but I’m at -320 apples, mostly thanks to somehow going 2-6 in my Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week picks.
Now that we’ve reached the halfway point in the season, I thought I’d actually do some analysis. After charting all 120 games this year, here are the trends I’ve found:
Home teams are 69-49 against the spread.
Favorites are 62-55 against the spread.
Home favorites are 47-33 against the spread.
Home underdogs are 22-15 against the spread.
And with that being said, I’ll be picking every favorite this week. You know, to break my bad mojo.
Week 9 NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.
Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:
PACKERS (-10.5) over Bears
Josh McCown was actually 14-20 for 204 yards and a touchdown that came out to a 94.6 QBR. Although he couldn’t beat Washington, he actually closed the gap by 3 points from when Cutler went out and he went in. Then again, I’m going with all the favorites this week.
COWBOYS (-10.5) over Vikings
What a choker, that Romo is. He let the Lions pick up 299 yards of offense in the fourth quarter, including going 80 yards in 50 seconds without a touchdown for the winning score.
Chargers (-1) over REDSKINS
Is it possible that Philip Rivers is having a career renaissance with Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal, and Vincent Brown as his top receivers? Oh, and The Onion killed it again.
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Eagles
Did you know that the powerhouse Eagles offense scored 10 points in the last two minutes of last game? Wait, scratch that, it’s just in the last two games.
Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Falcons
I’m sticking to my guns that the Panthers are actually a really good team, and frankly, I’m tired of the Falcons ruining my Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week.
Titans (-3) over RAMS
C’mon, you knew this one was the Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week.
SEAHAWKS (16.5) over Buccaneers
We already know the Jaguars are bad (R.I.P. list of things worst than the Jaguars this week), but the Bucs might not win a game this season. They go at Seattle, home Miami, home Atlanta, at Detroit, at Carolina, home Buffalo, home San Francisco, at St. Louis, at New Orleans. Could we have the elusive double defeated teams this year??
Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS
Sure, Case Keenum fumbled twice in his Texans debut, but at least he didn’t throw a pick six!
KFC Double Down Games
Bengals (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
After starting 3-0, the last five weeks have illustrated that it’s hard to be good when your top skill position players are Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, Bad Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Some Guy Named Charles Clay.
Saints (-6.5) over JETS
The Jets are the top team against the rush, so they’ll force the Saints to beat them by making Drew Brees throw the ball.
Ravens (-2.5) over BROWNS
Clearly the Ravens are a shell of their Super Bowl Champion team last year, but if they can’t beat Jason Campbell by more than a field goal, they might end up regretting giving Joe Flacco $120.6 million.
PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Steelers
Will the city of Boston have a hangover after winning the World Series in Boston for the first time in 95 years? That’s the real question.
Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week:
Chiefs (-3.5) over BILLS
Shouldn’t this line be six and a half points higher? I’m scared. How are the 8-0 Chiefs just favored by a field goal in Buffalo. I can’t be this dumb, right? I love Thad Lewis, but geez. Quick, everybody put your life savings on the Bills!
Overall record: 56-61-3
Last week: 6-7
Apple Total: -320
Apple Total Last Week: -40