NFL

Not even a year ago, people were discussing whether the Lions and Cowboys deserve to have a home game every Thanksgiving. It was so depressing. The Lions fans deserve one exciting game every year, but should it really be a humiliation on national television? For so long, this team has been so bad, and other clubs were clamoring for a Turkey Day home game.

But the more important question this Thanksgiving is not whether the Lions deserve to keep their special Thursday Night game, but whether, in fact, they are back to relevancy.

It took ten years of drafting at the top of the draft, but the Lions have finally amassed enough talent to launch themselves towards the top of the NFC. Led by former number one pick Matthew Stafford and number two picks Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson, the Lions have one of the highest powered offenses–fourth best to be exact–and one of the most ferocious defenses around. Other former number one picks, Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew, are in the midst of career years as well.

Cool new unis, a Cinderalla-like feeling, what’s not to like about this team? They even got off to the best start since 1956, going 5-0 and winning by an average of 14 points before falling to the 49ers and Falcons by 13 combined points. Sure, they took a momentary Bills-ian dive, but not since the days of Barry Sanders have teams actually thought twice about visiting Ford Field.

Most importantly, in my opinion, this team finally has an identity. They’re a rough-and-tumble, Midwestern team not afraid to rip your head off. Well, at least Ndamukong Suh isn’t afraid to tear your head off.

Whether or not they beat out the Giants, Bears, Falcons, and others for the two Wild Card spots, this season is the best any Lions fan could ever ask for. As long as Stafford and Best are leading the charge offensively, they’ll always have to deal with recurring injuries, but Detroit is well past the days of Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams. They’ve turned the page to the newest, most successful chapter in recent memory. Hey, take off those brown paper bags, it’s okay to laugh at your Midwestern brethren stuck in reverse, the Indianapolis “Suck for Luck” Colts.

Here are my Week 12 NFL picks; home teams are in CAPS.

LIONS (+6.5) over Packers
I can’t buy the Packers going 19-0 for one reason: the defense. When the Patriots nearly ran the table, they had the the fourth best defense–both by yardage and scoring–but the porous Packers’ D is the third worst in the league. Only the Bucs and Pats are worse. Sooner or later, it’ll catch up to then, and I think the high-powered Lions offense can do the trick. That, or at least keep it close.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Dolphins
All the Dolphins winning does is ruin their quarterback future and help my lines against them in future weeks.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Niners
What do the Niners need to do to be favored against  a winning team? Oh, get a real quarterback, right.

FALCONS (-9.5) over Vikings
As low as I am on the Falcons right now, I’m not going with a team quarterbacked by Christian Ponder and led in rushing by Toby Gerhart. That’s just not about to happen. I’m setting the over/under at 11.5 for the number of times announcers call this team “old-school” because of Gerhart and Ponder, AKA the grumpy old man’s fantasy.

JETS (-8.5) over Bills
Being a Bills fan must really be torture. After starting with a promising 5-2 record including wins over the Patriots and Eagles, the Bills pull a Bills and lose three straight games. Not only that, but star back Fred Jackson landed on IR, and Harvard Grad Ryan Fitzpatrick is due another $59 million. In other news, they lost to the Jets by 16 just 3 weeks ago.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over TITANS
This is my upset pick of the week. In fact, I’ll even take the Buccos -3.5. I’ll take Freeman over Hasselbeck, Blount over Johnson (at the moment), Mike Williams over Nate Washington, and the Bucs D over the Titans D. Simple pick to me.

Panthers (-3.5) over COLTS
No matter how this season ends for Cam Newton, it’s a brilliant success. He’s successfully turned around the future of this organization, and at the very least, he’s made every game fun. And if he loses this game, he’ll bring the Panthers one game closer to auctioning off Andrew Luck for about two whole drafts and another number one pick.

Cardinals (+3.5) over RAMS
Again, if two non-Niners NFC West teams play, just take the points. They’re just all really, really bad.

BENGALS (-7.5) over Browns
At first I thought, “Wow, this is just too many points to give up for the Bengals.” Then, my next thought was, “Wow, can I really expect the Browns offense to keep up? This is Chris Ogbannaya we’re talking about, after all.” Yeah, I’m taking the Bengals.

Texans (-3.5) over JAGUARS
Man, I’m excited to watch Matt Leinart. Maybe it’s just because I like to see teams implode time to time. Or maybe it’s just because I never really got to see Leinart in Arizona. Well, either way, Blaine Gabbert just is not good. I’m glad we can settle on that.

Redskins (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS
As much as I’ve ripped on the Redskins this year, the Seahawks are an absolute joke. The fact that anyone would pursue Tarvaris Jackson to be a legitimate starting option blows me away. At least Mike Shanahan has three quality linebackers and is somehow getting points.

Bears (+4.5) over RAIDERS
People keep referring to Caleb Hanie as an “unproven” quarterback. Well silly me, but I thought he looked pretty good in the NFC Championship Game. Going to the Black Hole in Oakland isn’t the nicest place to make your first NFL start, but Carson Palmer is on the nicer end of the scale for opposing quarterbacks.

What does Norv Turner need to do get fired? Get in a Jerry Sandu--oh wait that's probably crossing the line.

Broncos (+6.5) over CHARGERS
The Chargers have always been a secret favorite team of mine. They’ve got cool uniforms, cool players, and a great city. But this year, they’re just bad. At first I denied it. There’s no way a team with Phillip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates could be bad! Then I was angry. How can this be happening to me, Ben Weinrib, extraordinaire? Then I bargained with myself. Man, I’d pay serious cash to have Norv Turner fired and fix this whole problem. Then I went through a slight depression. What’s the point of picking games if the Chargers keep blowing games? Then finally I’ve accepted it. Tim Tebow is the best quarterback in the AFC West. Wait, what?

Patriots (-4.5) over EAGLES
I like Vince Young, but you’d have to give me ten points to take him over the Patriots. Their D may be shaky, but they find a way to tighten up in the red zone. And that happens to be a major issue for the Eagles, who rank 26th in red zone offense. Oh, and did I mention that Vince Young is quarterbacking? The Patriots it is!

Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS
Now that we’ve familiarized ourselves with Tyler Palko, can we agree that this line shouldn’t be less that 2 touchdowns? Because the Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week is against the Chiefs for the second week in a row.

SAINTS (-6.5) over Giants
Eli Manning is so funny down the stretch. He puts up solid numbers the whole game, and then in the last few minutes just craps the bed. But this game shouldn’t even get to a point for the bed to get crapped upon.

Last Week: 7-7

Season: 77-83

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 8-3

Here are my Week 11 picks with home teams in CAPS.

Jets (-4.5) over BRONCOS
I really want to believe in Tim Tebow for this game, especially as one of his stronger supporters since the draft. But the Jets are too strong defensively to let a banged-up Willis McGahee and Timmy Tebow ruin their season. I’ll swallow the points and take the better team.

Bills (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
It’s going to take more than two weeks to change my mind on the Dolphins. But they had better stop playing well until they place themselves well past Andrew Luck and Matt Barkely towards Robert Griffin III territory.

RAVENS (-7.5) over Bengals
Maybe I’m being stubborn. Maybe I can’t accept the quasi-success of a ginger quarterback from the Mountain West. Or maybe I just want to stick by my Super Bowl Pick. But I’m going Baltimore big in this game–as long as Jim Harbaugh keeps feeding Ray Rice the ball. In the Ravens’ three losses, Rice was given a grand total of 26 carries. That’s 10 less carries per game than he receives when B-more wins. When he gets 19 touches, they average 31.3 points per game versus 12.3 points per game when he receives less. Not to mention that Joe Flacco isn’t that good.

Jaguars (-0.5) over BROWNS
Michael Vick got a broken leg. Shaun Alexander got a broken foot. Drew Brees got Marshawn Lynch-ed. And what did Peyton Hillis get for his Madden Curse? He got to be a big, slow, white full-back.

Cowboys (-7.5) over REDSKINS
What would Rex Grossman have to do for me to pick him without getting double-digit points?
a) Play the Colts
b) Be anyone other than Rex Grossman
c) Meet a frog genie who grants him the power to throw accurate passes to his own players

Panthers (+6.5) over LIONS
I can never pick Panthers games. Ever. But since Jahvid Best is still out, and Cam Newton is the best player in this game (yes, better than you, Ndamukong Suh), I’ll take the Panthers to cover. I’ll probably come to regret this, but I can’t trust a team who just lost to the Bears by 14 and is lead in rushing by Maurice Morris.

Buccaneers (+14.5) over PACKERS
The Packers are great, but their defense is suspect. I don’t think Tampa will win, but Joshy Washy Twinkle Toes will rack up enough damage to keep this one close. Or relatively close. Basically within two touchdowns.

ESPN's Page 2 came up with the perfect rebranded logo for the Seahawks and NFC West in general.

Raiders (+1.5) over VIKINGS
I’m breaking my rule of never picking Carson Palmer, but Christian Ponder just isn’t good. Adrian Peterson will clean be phenomenal, but not ever Thor would help win this week.

Seahawks (+2.5) over RAMS
Is there any discernible difference between the levels of crappiness of the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals? No? I’ll take the points, please.

NINERS (-9.5) over Cardinals
The public may not believe in John Harbaugh, but his players do. He’s turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback, Michael Crabtree into a good starting receiver and the NFC West into a fairly respectable division. Those three accomplishments sound pretty pedestrian, but he’s taken a team threatening to land Andrew Luck to a team within sight of a first-round bye.

Titans (+6.5) over FALCONS
I’ve completely turned around on the Falcons. I thought they had a chance to go deep into the playoffs, but now I’m questioning whether Matt Ryan or Michael Turner will ever be elite players. Chris Johnson looks like he finally turned the corner–although he may have just been playing the Panthers–but I think Matt Hasselbeck will be just good enough to win in the ATL.

Chargers (+3.5) over BEARS
Games like these are why Norv Turner is not fired yet. He is such a bad motivator and leader, but his players will out-talent other teams late in the season when the catch fire. But if the Chargers can’t win the division over teams led by Palmer, Tebow, and Tyler Palko, there’s no way Turner can come back next year. Actually, unless the Chargers go to the AFC Championship Game, there’s no way Turner can come back next year.

Eagles (+3.5) over GIANTS
I’m a big supporter of Vince Young. The man may not be the most conventional quarterback, but he flat out wins games. Jeff Fisher never supported him in Tennessee, but playing as a backup in Philly will allow the team to pound the ball and avoid risky plays, which has been the downfall of the offense. However, there could be a huge controversy in the making of VY puts up Newton-esque numbers in big wins while MV7 is out.

PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
I’m going to introduce you to the new starting quarterback of the Chiefs, Tyler Palko. Since I already know you don’t know him, I’ll start at the beginning. He is a lefty and went undrafted out of Pitt in 2007, then bounced around with the Saints, Cards, and Steelers, not to mention the prestigious Montreal Allouettes and California Redwoods. Also, when he was chosen to be Pitt’s starting QB in 2005, Joe Flacco, then Palko’s backup, transferred to Delaware for a chance to start.
Why do I share this with you? Because this is the guy trying to beat TFB  on Monday Night Football in Foxboro. How could this possibly end without the Patriots up by three to four touchdowns?

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 70-76

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 7-3

Last week, I announced my Super Bowl XLV. Some of you were surprised, some of you were shocked. However, I’ll be sticking by my All Birds Super Bowl pick of the Ravens over the Eagles. Despite last Monday Night, despite Philly’s 2-4 start, I remain strong in my conviction.

Most people don’t exactly find the Ravens a surprising pick to go to the Super Bowl, but few, if any, still think the Eagles will do much of anything in the playoffs–if they even make it. But this team, as Vince Young told us, is incredibly talented. They don’t just have good players on offense, they have explosive home run threats capable of scoring on every play–whether on the opponents 20 or the Eagles 20.

But we’ve always known the Eagles were talented, that’s never been an issue. The issue has been run defense and turnovers. The team is dead last with 17 giveaways, but that can be easily corrected. MV7 fumbled seven times this year, but they were all in the first three games. Offensive linemen and offenses in general are taking longer to get back into top form because of the lockout and lack of OTAs. Now, Michael Vick is making safer decisions, and better protecting the ball when pressure comes. Furthermore, two of his four interceptions in the Buffalo game alone were fluke picks, they were tipped and not entirely Vick’s fault.

The key to the offense is Michael Vick, for sure. They’re first-ranked in rushing behind the explosive LeSean McCoy, so don’t need to win the game through the air. When Vick gets pressure and has to make a play, he should not be trying to force the ball down the field to DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. There’s nothing wrong with a check-down play to McCoy or Brent Celek. There’s even nothing wrong with running the ball for a handful of yards–as long as he doesn’t keep taking unnecessary hits.

Defensively, the Eagles do have some holes. Behind Nnamdi, Asante, and DRC, they secondary is absolutely fine with then 10th best pass defense. But behind a smaller defensive line, they’ve been punctured for a gaudy 123.8 yards on the ground per game. However, none of the NFC power have a great running back. Ryan Grant and James Starks aren’t world-beaters for the Packers, Jahvid Best is fine, and the Saints’ running back committee won’t exactly make Cullen Jenkings and Mike Patterson shake at night. Frank Gore and Michael Turner are good backs, but not great. I don’t really expect to see the 49ers or Falcons deep in the playoffs anyways.

The Eagles are fantastic on offense and just good enough to get through the NFC defensively. Most people just look at the record and the media debacle and call this a lost season for the Eagles. But if you look deeper at the numbers, you’ll see a possible sleeping giant.

The other team in my Super Bowl pick, the one I actually picked to win it all is the Ravens. Unlike the Iggles, this team is built around stout defense, and an offense good enough to take them far. Don’t get fooled by last week’s loss, this team is poised for greatness.

The problem last week was the distribution of touches. Ray Rice, the only great player on the team, only got 8 carries and 5 passes. Compare that to Joe Flacco dropping back 42 times, and you’ve really got to question their play calling. In the lone other loss this year, Rice was only given 13 carries and 5 passes. Flacco is a slightly upgraded version of Mark Sanchez. I’m not sure I’d trust him with the offense in his hands, but he can manage a game well enough. Plus he doesn’t turn it over at nearly Marky Mark’s rate.

Baltimore’s key is ball control. If they can keep feeding opposing defenses a steady diet of Rice, they’ll most likely be coming out on top. Don’t get fooled by his (maybe) 5’8″ frame, he packs a mean punch. Averaging 6.2 yards per touch, there’s no reason to try to force passes down field to Lee Evans, Ed Dickson, and Torrey Smith.

This team is tough, it’s gritty, and has a chip on its shoulder. They wanted to start the season with a bang against their rival Steelers and won 35-7. After they lost in Week 2, they crushed the Rams 37-7. After the bye, they beat down the Texans 29-14. When they really get motivated, and have extra time to prepare, this team is really good.

As we reach the midpoint of the regular season, I’d like to hear some of your Super Bowl picks, too. Here are my Week 8 picks with home teams in CAPS.

Colts (+9.5) over TITANS
The Colts are an interesting team in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes: when Peyton Manning comes back next year, he’ll be a better QB than Andrew Luck. But two years down the line? Who knows. A team like the Dolphins clearly needs Luck more, but Peyton won’t be good for much longer. In the mean time, I don’t think the Titans can put up more than twenty points, which is what they’d need to score to cover this game.

Saints (-10.5) over RAMS
With all due respect to A.J. Feeley, he’s no Chase Daniel. Gregg Williams will bring five, six, and seven men rushing every down to take Steven Jackson out of the game and force Feeley to make a mistake. If the Saints put up 62 against the Colts, how could this game possibly end with a difference of less than 2 scores? Easily the Lock o’ the Week, Lance.

GIANTS (-9.5) over Dolphins
I can’t trust Eli Manning, especially when he needs to win by ten, but Matt Moore is like watching M. Night Shyamalan’s Last Airbender. You go in knowing you just wasted $10 on a terrible movie. Then you watch the movie and realize it was much worse than you could have ever imagined.

More likely: Kevin Kolb gashes Baltimore's defense, or Ray Lewis rips off Kolb's head?

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Vikings
Not only do I not think Christian Ponder should have been drafted 12th overall, I wouldn’t have taken him in the first three or four rounds. He’s just not good. But Cam Newton is. He’s very good.

RAVENS (-12.5) over Cardinals
The Ravens lost last week and will be even more jacked up. What do you think is going to happen?

TEXANS (-9.5) over Jaguars
I’m just going to throw last week’s Monday Night game out of the window. Why? Because I can. The Texans are a legitimately solid team, and the Jaguars are still legitimately terrible.

BILLS (-5.5) over Redskins
Boy, I spent a ton of time thinking about this game. I don’t think the Bills are a team worthy of a winning record, and I originally wanted to take the Redskins and the points. But then I remembered the ‘Skins are starting Ryan Torain, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Armstrong, and John Beck The Great. Those four key skill position players wouldn’t be active on at least sixty percent of teams.

Lions (-3.5) over BRONCOS
The Broncos have become so underrated, they’re overrated. What do I mean? People are over-valuing the Broncos because of all the hate directed at Tim Tebow. Don’t forget, Matthew Stafford is light years ahead of Tebow right now as a passer and facilitator.

SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Bengals
Why would you ever take the Seahawks? Well, the Bengals are coming to Qwest–I mean CenturyLink Field. That, and Bernard Scott is starting alongside Andy Dalton. That combo is less likely to end in success than Shawn Kemp and birth control.

Browns (+9.5) over NINERS
Colt McCoy is just competent, and Alex Smith is more likely to make the big pass–but also more likely to make the big mistake. Ultimately, I do think the Niners will win, but they run the ball too much to really pull away, so I’ll take the points.

Patriots (-2.5) over STEELERS
Pittsburgh may be 5-2, but do you know who they beat? Seattle, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona. The Pats don’t lose after a bye, but when they do lose, it’s because of turnovers. And the Steelers are last in the league in that category with three turnovers.

EAGLES (-3.5) over Cowboys
The Cowboys have continually called out the Eagles, but this is not the offense to taunt. If the Eagles want to stake a claim for a good playoff seeding–if they can get a playoff spot at all–they need to beat quality teams. Watch out for Jeremy Maclin to have a field day against Mike Jenkins and a fairly porous secondary.

Chargers (-3.5) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs have no pass rush, and inconsistent run game, and Matt Cassel. So what exactly qualifies them to stay in the game with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers? The only thing that I can think of is that Arrowhead is going to be insanely loud on Monday Night. And we all know how excited Jackie Battle gets when the crowd is behind him.There’s probably no one I’d rather have than the great Jackie Battle.

Last Week: 8-5

Season: 51-52

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 5-2

It gets a little disappointing when you lose more games than you win. For a moment you even consider saying, “Well, what if I pick all the games this week, but then take the other team. Maybe I could go 8-5 instead of 5-8 like I did last week.” A lesser man would have taken the easy way out and taken the Bizzaro Ben picks. But no, I’ll step up and keep on plugging away, and my picks will improve. At least, they will after this week’s slate of tough games. I promise. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

Panthers (+4.5) over Falcons
I’m tired of picking against the Panthers. They’re 4-1 against the spread this year, and Cam Newton looks better and better every week. I’m down on the Falcons since they cannot stop the pass (294.2 yards through the air, good for 28th in the league).

GIANTS (-3.5) over Bills
It’s pretty shocking the way the Bills have been playing, and it’s also pretty shocking that the Bills aren’t giving more respect. Well, actually the latter isn’t so shocking. They’re giving up 421.8 yards per game, including 102.2 yards to #1 receivers, not even including secondary options like the Giants’ Mario Manningham and the fast-rising Victor Cruz. Also, the Giants pass rush is finally back, which should finally put some pressure on a Buffalo offense I still can’t fully get behind.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts
Unlike most first-round receivers, A.J. Green has been everything the Bengals have ever dreamed of. He’s putting up 80 yards per game with 3 touchdowns already. The Colts, on the other hand, have nothing much to be excited about. Maybe fans can get pumped up for a potential Peyton Manning-Andrew Luck controversy.

LIONS (-4.5) over Niners
Who would’ve been guessed these two team would own a combined 9-1 record after 5 weeks? Well, I can get behind only one of these teams, and by my pick, I’m sure you can guess which one it is. One of them has 5 first-round picks starting on offense and a stout defensive line while another has Alex Smith.

PACKERS (-14.5) over Rams
Never take an NFC West team on the road. Ever!

Eagles (+0.5) over REDSKINS
Not only do I refuse to buy into the Redskins, but I’m buying into the Eagles. They are first in rushing, 8th in passing, and 7th against the pass. By seeing those numbers, you’d think they were one of the top-10 team at worse. However, they’re also 30th against the run and are last in the league with 15 turnovers. Tim Hightower won’t gash the Eagles like Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Michael Turner did. Plus, Michael Vick kind of has the Redskins’ number.

The Steelers already downed one long-haired-quarterback-lead team in Curtis Painters' Colts, the Jags are next. Luckily for the Pats, Tom Brady already cut his hair.

STEELERS (-12.5) over Jaguars
I hesitate to take the Jaguars on the road, especially when they play the Steelers. People were really down on Pittsburgh last week, but they were proved wrong when they put a 38-17 beatdown on the Titans, a team that is far superior to the Jaguars.

RAIDERS (-5.5) over Browns
I’ve been vocally against Jason Campbell, but by hook or by crook, they’re 4-1 against the spread this year. The Browns’ D will be eaten alive by Darren McFadden, and I just can’t take Colt McCoy going into the black hole.

RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
Normally, this would be a really tough game to pick, and I may have leaned towards the Texans with such a big line. However, Mario Williams is out for the year and Andre Johnson is going to miss at least two more games. Baltimore’s offense is clicking on all cylinders, and their defense is still the fiercest unit in the league.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Cowboys
The Patriots have won 19 straight regular season games in Foxboro. They’ve scored an average of 33.4 points during the streak, winning by an average margin of 17.1 points. Their defense may be shoddy at best, but Tom Brady more than makes up for it.

Saints (-4.5) over BUCCANEERS
Gerald McCoy and LeGarrette Blount are out, and Drew Brees is in. NFC South games are usually bloodbaths, but I see no reason to take the Bucs here. Drew Brees is gunning for his record-breaking 4th straight game of 350 passing yards or more, and he never seems to be short of options on offense. This is your official Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

BEARS (-3.5) over Vikings
The Vikings are a lot better than their 1-4 record might indicate, they’ve actually out-scored their opponents by 5 points. Then again, Adrian Peterson has never rushed for 100 yards against the Bears, and I don’t generally like my chances when I put all my chips in the hands of 34-year-old Donovan McNabb.

JETS (-7.5) over Dolphins
I really don’t like the Jets. They can’t run, they can’t stop the run, and they depend on Mark Sanchez when they fall behind. But when they’re up against Matt Moore and Lex Hilliard on the road, I’m more than willing to give up 7.5 points.

Last Week: 5-8

Season: 36-41

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 4-1

I didn’t especially like him coming out of college, but I had no problem with the Jags trading into the top-10 to draft him. But the entire way Jacksonville has handled the development of Blaine Gabbert is a mess.

Like I said last April, “it’s not that I don’t like Blaine Gabbert. I just don’t see him as a big difference maker. I’ll give him this: there’s nothing to hate about his game… But at the same time, no one aspect of his game shines.” I believe he can be a starting quarterback eventually in the NFL, but not right now.

Jacksonville had the perfect scenario for an up-and-coming quarterback. A solid, productive quarterback under contract for a few more years at a decent salary (just around $8 million), a defensive minded coach, and a stud running back. If the team bottomed out, they could insert Gabbert to see if he could spark a comeback. Maybe they could even ship off Garrard to a team in desperate straits in terms of their quarterback (Seattle, Washington, Miami) for a draft pick or two. But no, they just cut Garrard loose in training camp.

If their plan was to get rid of Garrard before the season started to throw Gabbert into the deep end, I wouldn’t like the call, but I could see where the might be coming from. Gabbert has the potential to have a Bradford-like impact to lead us near the playoffs, especially with Indianapolis in a mess and Tennessee not looking especially dapper. However, they decided to go with Luke McCown. 30-year-old journeyman Luke McCown.

These are the kinds of moves in the NFL that make no sense to me. Luke McCown is so far below replacement level, he hardly merits a roster spot. What could possibly be the best-case scenario playing him for two weeks? He looks near competent and holds down the starting job until mid-season, when you realize, “Hey, that’s Luke McCown starting for us!” and yank him for Gabbert.

So finally, Blaine Gabbert is going to get his first NFL start. The Jags look destined for a 3-13 season, and Gabbert may be lucky to survive then entire season because of a weak offensive line and little help from wideouts. Some day, Blaine Gabbert can be good. But this is not his time to take on his starting role.

Here are my Week 3 picks; home teams in CAPS.

Patriots (-8.5) over BILLS
New England has beaten Buffalo 15 straight times dating back to 2003. By and average of 19 points per game. You’d think when they travel to Buffalo, the margin of victory would decrease, but it doesn’t. They win in Buffalo by an average of 23.4 points per game.

BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
So many conflicts going on in this game. Never take an NFC West team on the road, but never give points with the Bengals. Then again, the Niners are playing at 10 AM body time, so I’ll begrudgingly take the Bengals.

BROWNS (-2.5) over Dolphins
Is it possible that I could give points on the Bengals and Brown in the same week? If their opposing quarterbacks are Alex Smith and Chad Henne on the road, yes.

Broncos (+6.5) over TITANS
I don’t really think the Titans are all that, to be honest. They’ve got 2 great offensive weapons, and that’s about it. At least the Broncos can air it out with Kyle Orton and keep it within a touchdown.

Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
In a couple of weeks, people will start to realize that Donovan McNabb is d-o-n-e done. He’ll get a big wake-up call this week week after about the third of fourth time he tries to dislodge himself out from under Ndamukong Suh.

It sounds like a cool idea at first to make him a 3-4 OLB, but do you really want 6'6" 283 Mario Williams in pass coverage?

SAINTS (-3.5) over Texans
Not to knock the Texans, but it’s easy to look good when you play the Kerry Collins-led Colts and Dolphins. The Saints’ offense is clicking on all cylinders, and you should expect Brees to exploit Mario Williams in coverage play after play.

Giants (+7.5) over EAGLES
I hate the Giants and love the Eagles this year, so this pick makes sense, right? Well the best way to beat the Eagles is to pound the ball, which is what the Giants do best. Mike Vick is already banged up, and the Giants have a big chip on their shoulder from the DeSean Jackson game last year.

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
If the Panthers can’t beat the Gabbert-led Jags, what can they win? Oh, yeah, the Quinton Coples sweepstakes.

CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs
Is it unreasonable to think that this line should start with a 2?

Jets (-3.5) over RAIDERS
This is the exact type of game the Raiders would win to ruin somebody’s Suicide pool. But they don’t have Nnamdi anymore. And they still have Jason Campbell. This is my third ever Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

Ravens (-3.5) over RAMS
The Ravens clearly aren’t as good as they looked when they trampled the Steelers in Week 1 by 28. And they clearly aren’t as bad as they looked in Week 2 when they lost to the Titans by 13. But they are clearly good enough to take down the Rams. That much we know.

Falcons (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
Two near elite quarterbacks, two division rivals. Great game, but I trust Matt Ryan’s supporting cast much more than I do LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, and Kellen Winslow.

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
Either people think the Packers’ defense is bad since they ran into two buzzsaws in Cam Newton and Drew Brees, or they forget the Bears’ number one receiver is Roy Williams.

SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
You can’t underestimate how much Seattle’s home field advantage helps them. Yet I still can’t believe in EA’s Madden cover tournament this year, Seattle’s representative was their 12th man. Except, would anyone buy a Madden cover with Aaron Curry on it?

Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS
This game is so sad. Just think about how good of a game this would be if Peyton Manning was healthy…

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Redskins
Tony Romo is, in my opinion is a top-10 quarterback. People really don’t like him because A) he plays for the Cowboys and B) he is prone to dumb mistakes. But Rex Grossman is just no good. And two weeks of solid play can’t fool me, oh no no no.

Last Week: 11-5

Season: 18-14

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 2-0

As a fan of football, there’s something innately exciting about Cam Newton. He’s got something that Jake Delhomme could never dream of. Nor could Chris Weinke, Matt Moore, nor Jimmy Clausen. Cam has a confidence–a swagger–about him. And justifiably so.

Anyone who watched last Sunday’s game against Arizona could tell you that Cam Newton looked like the real deal. He revived an offense that sputtered to score 12.2 points per game last year–more than four and a half less that 31st placed Cleveland. The offense reached heights not seen since, ironically enough, just before the Arizona playoff game more often remembered as the game Jake really crapped the bed.

Why can't I see Jimmy Clausen making this move to get a TD?

What made his outing even more impressive was how well he handled pressure. Cards’ coach Ken Whisenhunt threw blitz after blitz trying to confuse Newton, but he felt the heat, stayed cool, and picked apart their secondary. He didn’t depend on his legs. He didn’t force throws. Cam Newton just made the right throw–24 times for 422 yards.

Now no one expects Cam to keep this up. Tom Brady never even through for 400 yards until Monday Night and Michael Vick’s never done it. But even playing competently is a massive upgrade for the Panthers, and it shows that their bright future could be coming sooner rather that later.

So maybe when all’s said and done, the teams that are tanking this year for Andrew Luck really should have tanked last year for Cam Newton.

Week 2 picks; home teams in CAPS.

BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders
Who knew the Bills could play so competently? Better get your Harvard QB jokes in quickly before they take over third place in the AFC East for good.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Bears
Beating the tough Bears D by more than a touchdown is a tall order, but the Saints are tough. They were 12 inches and some good luck away from beating the Packers on the road to start the season after falling behind 0-14. Drew Brees won’t let this team fall to 0-2, not at home.

COLTS (+2.5) over Browns
Imagine telling someone exactly 1 year ago today that the Browns would be favored on the road by 2. They’d probably ask if they were playing the Raiders, Bills, or Bengals, but that would still be somewhat hard to believe. But the Colts? No way. Funny how things change. But in the end, if the Colts want any shot at treading water before Peyton comes back to save my fantasy team Indy’s season, they’ve got to beat Cleveland at home.

LIONS (-8.5) over Chiefs
I’m trying not to fall into this trap. What’s not to like about the Lions? They spent #1 picks on a QB, wideout, running back, and tight end who have all more or less panned out plus the most dominate defensive lineman for the next decade. They have cool new uniforms, a young defensive-minded coach, and a chip on their shoulder. So Vegas pushes their line. But the Chiefs gave up 41 points last year. That’s bad if you’re playing the Patriots. But they were playing the Bills.
One more weird stat: Matt Cassel completed 22 passes against Buffalo–two less than Cam did. But instead of airing it out for 422 yards, he compiled a measly 119 yards. That’s not even 6 yards per completion. Every time he took a snap, the offense averaged 3.3 yards.

Packers (+10.5) over PANTHERS
Watching Cam last week made me consider taking Carolina for a moment. Then I remembered that the Panthers can’t tackle, and they lost their best tackler for the season last week. Joy.

Ravens (-5.5) over TITANS
The Titans couldn’t beat the Luke McCown-led Jags last week.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over VIKINGS
Did you know that Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards against San Diego. No, not 39 yards on the first drive. Just 39 yards. Even Ethan Albright with his 17 throwing power and 16 throwing accuracy could do better. I’d take the Bucs -3.5.

JETS (-10.5) over Jaguars
How many straight weeks can Luke McCown get a shoutout here? I’m sure that’s his biggest lifetime achievement. Either that or succeeding Tim Rattay at Louisiana Tech.

Cardinals (+4.5) over REDSKINS
I still think the Redskins are going to be really, really bad. And, no, you can’t fool me, Rex Grossman. I still know you are a T-R-B-L turrrrrrrible player.

STEELERS (-14.5) over Seahawks
I thought about taking Seattle. Because winning by more than 2 touch downs is tough no matter who’s playing. But they I pictured a terrified Tarvaris Jackson seeing thousands upon thousands of terrible towels being waved as James Harrison stares intensely at him just feet away. And now I’m more than willing to give the Sidney Rice-less Seahawks 14.5 points.

Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS
Just like Sexy Rexy, Alex Smith can’t fool me. Unlike the Redskins, the Niners have some serious talent on both sides of the ball, especially on offnse. However, I really like the ‘Boys this year, and believe it or not, Tony Romo is a really good QB. Just get that image of him fumbling the field goal snap out of your head, that was like totally four years ago.

Bengals (+5.5) over BRONCOS
These teams are so bad, I figure I might as well take the points and a potentially sneaky good offense (AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Cedric Benson) over Kyle Orton and an pretty bad run game. I actually wonder if FOX and CBS punishes their worst announcers with games like these.

Texans (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Did anyone watch last week? That game where the Texans put up 34 on the Colts? Because the Dolphins are no good home or away, and the Texans may just have turned the corner. And you can add Chad Henne to the you-can’t-fool-me group of QBs already mentioned. Am I going to pick against the Dolphins twice in a row at home to open the season as myLance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week? Cracker, please. Wait, that’s racist.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Chargers
Is this line really that big? The Chargers have to fly cross country, and they already are historically slow-starting. Between Brady’s surgeon-like precision and a running game averaging 4.8 yards per carry, New England is just tough to stop. And just wait until Ochocinco and Stevan Ridley get worked into the offense.

FALCONS (+2.5) over Eagles
Just like the Lions game, I’m falling into the trap. I’m giving up too many points because a feel good team with a possibly-over-hyped young quarterback and cool unis has stolen my heart. Roddy White. Michael Turner. Julio Jones. What not to like? Yes, they lost to Chicago last week and play a tougher Eagles team, but they are too good to just roll over the first two weeks.

Rams (+6.5) over GIANTS
I’m breaking my Don’t-Take-NFC-West-Teams-On-The-Road-Out-Of-The-Division rule way too early in the year. But I have a great feeling about Sam Bradford against a beaten-up Giants D, plus Eli Manning isn’t exactly Peyton in the clutch. Wait, that doesn’t make sense, Peyton sucks in the clutch. Either way, Eli definitely isn’t that top-5 QB he said he was. He’s far from even top-15.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 7-9

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 1-0

I’ll just get this out of the way from the start: this will be the easiest year to predict games this decade. Sound prisoner-of-the-moment? Say what you want, but it’s true.

Instead of having all summer to run OTAs, integrate rookies into practice with ease, and build rapport naturally, teams only had 7 weeks to prepare for Week 1. That means free agents had just a few weeks to learn their new system, rookies were force-fed playbooks, and the Redskins didn’t have time to realize that both John Beck and Rex Grossman suck.

What this all means is that teams who made slight tweaks to their team will gain a steep advantage to those who had a total overhaul. Teams like the Saints, who ran dozens of team practices, will hardly feel a Lockout Hangover and will be ready to roll from Week 1. On the other hand, teams like the Bengals will be stuck in neutral while rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green try to get on the same page.

For this season, my advice would to be to lean towards teams with stability at quarterback and head coach. So, in other words, not the Jags.

In all, I’m pretty excited for this season of football. And as an offering of good will, I promise not to use the word “lockout” in any future football columns more than once. But for now, it’s time to look ahead. I guarantee I’ll trump last season’s not-too-impressive record by one–if not two–wins. I know it’s a tall order, but I plan on following through.

In other news, Bojangles and I could not come to terms on a one-year extension for rights to my Lock o’ the Week, but I am happy to announce that Lance Crackers has stepped up and struck a deal with me as my unofficial official sponsor. Watch out every week for the Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week, and without further ado, my Week 1 picks. Home teams in CAPS.

Saints (+4.5) over PACKERS
New Orleans is the one team who–more than any other team–ran practices all through summer. The core of the team is the same with tan upgrade of Reggie Bush to Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. They are the ultimate stability team, and there really aren’t any gaping holes to the team. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they steal this one from the defending Super Bowl champs straight up, but of course I’ll take the points, too.

Falcons (-2.5) over BEARS
I just keep looking at this Bears team, and I don’t see a lot to love. About the time you identify Roy Williams and Marion Barber as players who can turn around your offense, I’m selling your stock (which I incidentally already have done on SportsGunner).

CHIEFS (-6.5) over Bills
I don’t especially love the Chiefs this year because they are average at QB and well below average at head coach, regardless of how talented they are at the skill positions. But I really don’t like the Fitzpatrick-Gailey combination. I’m going to need a bit more than 6.5 to take the Bills going into Arrowhead Stadium.

In case you didn't know, only Tom Brady and Big Ben had less interceptions last year than Freeman, at 6.

BROWNS (-4.5) over Bengals
Do people realize that Andy Dalton is not good? He put up average numbers at TCU. That’s against Wyoming, Colorado State, and UNLV. Just like the previous game, I really don’t like the Browns this year, but the Bengals might not even win 3 games.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Lions
Everyone likes the Lions. Literally. And all this love for a team with a quarterback who can’t stay healthy, a banged-up running back who’s been concussed many times over, and an injured Nick Fairly. I think this is a situation where so many people love this team they’ve flip flopped from very underrated to very overrated. Or the opposite of Josh Freeman. Where did the love for this guy go? He’s really good. Like really, really good.

Titans (+3.5) over JAGUARS
Matt Hasselbeck learning an entirely good system in a handful of weeks scares me, but nothing Luke McCown could ever scare me.

TEXANS (-2.5) over Colts
This is an absolute must-win for the Texans. If they can’t beat Indy with Kerry Collins at the helm, they might as well pack their bags and head to the UFL because they’re never going to win here.

Eagles (-5.5) over RAMS
Even though Eagles are a un-stability team, it’s hard not to like them. It’s also hard not to like the Rams between an emerging star (Bradford) and a horrid division (NFC West), there’s a lot to like. Except that their schedule starts out Philly, at the Giants, Baltimore, Washington, Bye, at Green Bay, at Dallas, and New Orleans. They could conceivably start 1-6. Ouch.

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS
What’s a good rule of thumb for these games? Take the points. But if you need a stronger reason, the Steelers are a tight-nit organization. Not much has changed, they’ve got the better quarterback, and the better coach. Furthermore, James Harrison is ready to rip some throats, to the chagrin of Commissioner Goodell.

Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
We’ve learned two things over Norv Turner’s reign in San Diego: he’s an awful planner, and the Chargers always start out slow. And while I don’t love the Vikings, anyone would be better than Chilly. I’ll take the points and Adrian Peterson.

Giants (-3.5) over REDSKINS
This line really should be closer to 13.5 than 3.5.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Panthers
I really want to take the Panthers. I really do. Admittedly, I do have a rooted interest in Carolina. And I do love me some Cam Newton. But the Panthers just can’t tackle. And Jon Beason might not be playing.

Seahawks (+5.5) over NINERS
These are two teams you should never give up points for. Also, this is the only team the Seahawks will play this year that they will hold an advantage in regards to quarterbacks.

Cowboys (+4.5) over JETS
This game is tough. Really just tough. But in the end, I trust Tony Romo much more than I trust Mark Sanchez, and Jason Garrett has really toughened up this Cowboys team. I have a knack that the ‘Boys will pull this one out, or at least keep it close. Or maybe its just that I secretly hate the Jets deep down.

Patriots (-5.5) over DOLPHINS
I’m confused as to who wrote this line. Everyone knows TFB and The Hoodie never let up during prime time. You can come to my house and take down my TV with a baseball bat if the Pats blow this one. Yeah, this is the first-ever Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

BRONCOS (-0.5) over Raiders
Couldn’t we get a better matchup for the first slate of MNF games? Oh, I’ve got it! First half is Orton vs. Campbell, but the second half is Tebow vs. Pryor. What? Pryor’s suspended? Well how else could we make this game interesting, No Fun League?

Take a look at any Super Bowl contender; they’ve all got one thing in common. No, it’s not a great defense–the 14-2 Patriots gave up the eighth most yardage and Peyton Manning’s division champion Colts gave up the tenth most points. Could it be a  great coach? No, Norv Turner somehow wins 10 games every year and the Eagles always manage to do well despite Andy Reid’s horrific clock management. The answer is simple: you need a star quarterback.

The quarterback is without a doubt the most important position in all of pro sports. No position is quintessential in the NBA–The Lakers manage fine without a point guard, the Heat are playing great without a center, and the Bulls first in the East without a shooting guard. Baseball is even less star driven. But in the NFL, you can’t win without a bona fide star under center.

The best six teams record-wise were the Patriots, Falcons, Steelers, Ravens, Saints, and Bears. No surprise, they all have superstar level quarterbacks. Tom Brady. Matt Ryan. Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco. Drew Brees. Jay Cutler. Sure, Flacco and Cutler might not be on the level of a Rodgers or Manning, but they can make the play when the game is on the line.

Teams with great quarterbacks will find a way to succeed; it’s just how the NFL works in this new era. Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Mike Vick, and Josh Freeman led their team to 10 wins and Philip Rivers led his injury riddled Chargers to within one game of the playoffs and a 9-7 record.

Still not convinced? Let’s check out the top of the draft order: Carolina, Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Arizona. We have Jimmy Clausen and the 32nd ranked pass offense, the Tim Tebow experiment, a quarterback who played at Harvard, a washed up Carson Palmer, and a quarterback by committee that finished a solid 31st in passing. Not great.

If you want to win four to seven games every year, you can go ahead with Alex Smith and Chad Henne and hope for the best. But if you really want to contend for a title, you need an upgrade at quarterback. You need a franchise-type player.

There are four types of teams on the search for a star quarterback: those who have their guy, those who think they have their guy, those who are biding time waiting to find their guy, and those who are completely lost looking for their guy.

Franchise QB

Atlanta
Baltimore
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Green Bay
Indianapolis
New England
New Orleans
New York Giants
New York Jets
Pittsburgh
San Diego
St. Louis
Tampa Bay

We Think We’ve Got Our Guy

Joe Webb is not the answer to any question.

Denver
Cleveland
Houston
Kansas City
Philadelphia

Biding Time

Buffalo
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Miami
Oakland

Child, Please!

Arizona
Carolina
Minnesota
San Francisco
Seattle
Tennessee
Washington

Roughly half the teams in the league have a franchise quarterback, and their record reflects the importance of having a star QB. The fifteen teams averaged over 10 wins last season. Teams who think they’ve got their guy averaged only 7 wins, teams biding their time averaged 6 wins, and those who were just utterly lost averaged a mere 5 wins. No team that lacked any semblance of a franchise QB had a winning record.

No longer can you win in the NFL with simply a great defense. No longer can you grind your way through a season and win it all. You need to be able to just outscore the other team. Yes, the Ravens won Super Bowl XXXV mostly thanks to Ray Lewis and their great defense, but that was eleven years ago–so long ago that they might as well be the ’85 Bears.

There’s a great reason why teams with the Bradys and Mannings of the world are perpetually in Super Bowl contention: in this day and age offense reigns supreme. Once you have a star quarterback, you’re set for the next decade. And when you don’t, you turn into the Panthers.

So here sit the Panthers in the enviable position of owning the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. They are in desperate need of a competent quarterback. But at the same time, they need help at defensive tackle, defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver, offensive line, and, and, and… And to make matters worse, there’s no clear-cut, safe quarterback at the top of the draft board. Andrew Luck would have been their guy, but Luck made the strange decision of turning down nearly $50 million guaranteed to return to Stanford.

For the Panthers, there are only five players worth considering: Patrick Peterson, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, and that Cam Newton guy. Peterson may be the most talented player in the draft, Dareus fits one of their most pressing needs, A.J. Green would be perfect for replacing Steve Smith, and Gabbert has all of the makings to be a productive quarterback. But there’s only one right choice for the top pick. And it’s Cam Newton.

It’s not that I think any of the other players are bad. They just don’t make sense in the Panthers’ situation. Drafting a corner or wide receiver this early doesn’t make much sense, and D-Tackle isn’t as pressing of a need as quarterback.

And it’s not that I don’t like Blaine Gabbert. I just don’t see him as a big difference maker. I’ll give him this: there’s nothing to hate about his game. He’s smart, has great size, played in a big-time conference, has a nice arm, and is fairly mobile. But at the same time, no one aspect of his game shines. He doesn’t jump off the screen when you watch him, and he didn’t dominate his competition. I wouldn’t give him the Winning Gene. But boy does Cam Newton shine.

Few players are as inspiring as Cam Newton. Plain and simple.

There was no college player nearly as dominant, captivating, and electric as Cam Newton in 2010. He can beat you with his rocket arm, his elusive speed, or just run you over with 6’5″, 248 lbs of fury. He dominated the best conference in the league and beat six top 20 teams in the process. Even most casual of college football fans couldn’t help but notice how special #2 was when he played. But despite all of his accolades and skill, people still seem to focus on past missteps when analyzing him as a potential prospect.

Yes, Cam allegedly stole a laptop. Yes, he may have been caught cheating twice. Yes, he may have sold his services to the highest bidder. But you know what? That didn’t stop him from being the best player in college football. He won the NJCAA Championship in his only year at Blinn College with an 11-1 record, and he ran the table with a 14-0 record in Auburn’s championship season. The man wins games. The man puts up stats. What more could you ask from a player?

There’s something infectious about Cam Newton’s personality. He’s got that great smile that reassures you that he’s got your back no matter how dire the situation. And whenever he steps into a room, he commands everyone’s respect. Newton is the very definition of a leader–willing to do anything to lead his team to victory.

The one leg up Newton has on the rest of the draft class is that he has the potential to be a star. He’s got unlimited potential, given that he comes with tons of risk. New 49ers coach poured praise on the young quarterback, saying that he “(hadn’t) seen upside like with this guy in probably the last 10 years.” But will he put in the full effort necessary? Can he maintain focus if he plays for a bad team? I believe so. He’s just that special of a player.

Newton is so special and so uniquely formed that I find him nearly impossible to compare to any other player. He’s not Michael Vick. Vick is a runner first, and Newton can absolutely run over defenders. He’s not JaMarcus Russell. Russell had a poor mindset and was purely a strong armed gunman. He’s not Vince Young. Young doesn’t have the accuracy or maturity that Newton put on display at Auburn. We can’t get stuck in this racial stereotype.

But if I had to pick one or two players he most reminds me of, they’d have to be Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Freeman. These three quarterbacks have huge frames (6’5″ 241, 6’6″ 240, 6’5″ 248), cannon arms, and are mobile in the pocket. They won’t necessarily put up the biggest numbers, but when the game is on the line, they deliver. They’re the type of player you want in your foxhole. And Cam Newton is the man for the Panthers.

I’ll admit that I loved the Panthers’ selection of Jimmy Clausen last year. But that turned out to be a big mistake. Clausen is an arrogant, entitled player who doesn’t lead well or know how to lead his team to victory. It’s easy to get the feeling that he thinks he deserves to be handed the keys to his dad’s brand new Caddy–he deserves it because he’s Jimmy Clausen and Jimmy Clausen gets what Jimmy Clausen wants. But that’s not how things work in the NFL.

Cam has had to work hard at every level he’s played. He had to prove that Auburn was more than just a top 25 team. He had to prove that he was more than just a good college quarterback. And you’d better bet that when he gets drafted number one overall, he’ll prove that he’s more than just a number one pick.

Cheeseheads and Terrible Towels. Lambeau and Heinz Field. Green and Gold and Black and Gold. The Packers and Steelers are two of the most storied franchises in NFL history, and they also have the best fan bases in the league. What team deserves it more than these?

Between their nine Super Bowl wins in ten games, these two teams have had plenty of success. But 1967 doesn’t affect this game. It doesn’t mean a thing.

Here are perhaps the two most complete teams of the season. Green Bay can air it out as well as anyone, and their running game–specifically rookie James Starks–has really stepped up in the postseason. Plus they’ve got that trademarked Dom Caper aggressive D.

The Steelers are exactly who they appear to be. They’ll shove it right down your throat, but if they need to make a big drive in a short window, Ben Roethlisberger is your man. And then there’s that defense.

How weird is it, though, that a sixth seed who barely made the playoffs is favored over a near-dynasty by three points? It’s the classic example of a underdog team with a quarterback who is hard to hate (and also happens to be replacing one of the most hated figures it football) versus a meat-head quarterback who is hard to like. Between that, two great all-around teams, and a semi-feud between rappers Wiz Khalifa and sudden-Packer backer Lil Wayne, we’ve got ourselves a game.

Going into the game, most fans will ask the question ‘Can the Steelers out-score Green Bay?’ I have a better question.

Can the Packers beat the Steelers if they can’t run the ball?

Pittsburgh had by far the best run defense in the NFL this season when they limited opponents to 3 yards per carry and 62 yards per game. They ratcheted up the Run D even more in January, holding the opposition to 2.6 yards per carry and 52 yards per game. Their defenders are big. They are strong. And they WILL decapitate you if they have to. But seriously, no team in the NFL has a better front seven in the league.

The Packers have been able to skate by thus far in the postseason without a great running game. James Starks had a breakout game against Philly for 123 yards, but has since come back to reality, totaling 140 yards on the ground in the next two games. Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn have also been splitting carries, but they are certainly nothing to run and tell that about.

Without much of a running game to work with, Green Bay won’t be able to control the clock, especially late in the game when they’ll need it most. Aaron Rodgers will have to have the game of his life against the vaunted Steelers defense, a unit which hasn’t given up 250 yards in two months 5th and 300 yards since Halloween.

But if we’re talking about quarterbacks, y’all need to hide yo kids and hide yo wife cuz Ben Roethlisberger is coming to Dallas! The man may not be the perfect role model off the field, but he’s the definition of a winner on the field. Dude is 10-2 in the playoffs, including 2-0 in the Super Bowl. Sure, he’ll try to force one too many passes to a receiver early on in the game, but if you need someone to take you on a drive to win the big game, he’s your man.

You may not want him to marry your daughter, but if you need someone in your foxhole, Big Ben is your guy.

At a massive 6’5″ 240, Big Ben is easily the hardest quarterback to bring down. You hardly ever see the first pass rusher sack him, Ben finds a way to escape the pressure, shake off a defender, or squeeze in the perfect throw. Another thing that makes his special is his mobility; he will roll out under pressure and can either rumble for a solid gain or make a throw on the run, similar in a way to what Cam Newton did for Auburn as he led them to the BCS National Championship this season.

These two teams didn’t play this year, but they did way back in 2009. For the most part the teams were the same. What happened? Pittsburgh won a shootout with a last-second heroic pass from Big Ben to then-rookie Mike Wallace for a 19 yard touch down strike. Big Ben lit up the Packers’ secondary (which still had Atari Bigby and Al Harris along with linebackers Nick Barnett and Brady Poppinga) for a whopping 503 yards. He had 19 passes for double-digit yardage, ten of which were for over 20 yards, including 4 for over 30 and 2 over 50 yards. Like a surgeon, he was able to slice his dice his way through Green Bay.

Aaron Rodgers wasn’t so bad himself, he threw for 383 yards of mistake-free football. But unfortunately, his teammates only managed 60 yards rushing, and he couldn’t single-handedly put his team on his back and will his team to victory.

Oh, and one other thing. Troy Polamalu wasn’t playing.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a non-quarterback who makes a bigger impact on his team than Troy Polamalu. With him, Pittsburgh is 25-5. Without him, they’re only 6-7. Troy doesn’t just make an absurd amount of of plays thanks to his blazing speed and incredible instincts, he inspires his teammates to play to their top abilities. Pittsburgh plays with exponentially more confidence with Polamalu and his flying locks of hair on the field.

Ultimately, this game comes down to preparation. Whichever team can come up with the best gameplan and execute best will be the winner. To be honest, I’m not even sure if Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy is a great coach. Yes, he led his team to three straight road victories to launch themselves to the Super Bowl, but he never exuded much confidence, and Aaron Rodgers did most of the work. Mike Tomlin, however, is by far one of the best coaches in the league. He knows exactly how to get to his players and inspires his players as well as anyone else in the league.

Not only that, but Pittsburgh has a distinct edge on defense. Led by the great Dick LeBeau, puts The Fear of God into the other team, and Green Bay doesn’t exactly have the best offensive line.

The Steelers have been there and done that. Big Ben wins big games, and I can’t think of any other way to classify the Super Bowl than a big game. Rashard Mendenhall will be able to pound the ball throughout the game, and Pittsburgh will bring the heat and make Aaron Rodgers make the big mistake.

This game will be a great one, and the last thing I expect is a blowout. Get your towels ready cuz it’s about to go down.

Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 20.

For seventy-five years, Pittsburgh has been the city of Black and Gold. And that’s not just for the Steelers. The Pirates, Penguins, and even the University Pittsburgh Panthers also rock the black and gold. It represents the culture of the hard-working city of Pittsburgh, the steel industry center of the USA. But all of this changed when a young man from Pittsburgh came out with a new song.

Wiz Khalifa’s single “Black and Yellow” was released in September of 2010 and quickly shot up into the Top 10 of the Billboard Top 100, peaking at #5. His song is a tribute to the city he was raised in and quickly became popular in the Steel City. Eventually, the song was played after Steelers victories; Khalifa even expressed interest in making the song the Steelers’ anthem.

So now, the culture seems to be a bit changed. Hip-hop culture is taking over sports, and this is just another example. More and more, people are cheering for “Black and Yellow” instead of Black and Gold. All this does is affirm the impact of the growing rap community on sports.

So it’s your move, Pittsburgh. Who are you? Black and Gold … or Black and Yellow.

Here are my Championship Game picks, home teams in CAPS.

BEARS (+3.5) over Packers

When a home playoff team is an underdog, that’s usually all you need to know. Vegas doesn’t respect a team so much that they give the visiting team the edge. That is certainly the case here, as the Packers are getting more than a field goal edge over their division rivals, who actually topped them for the NFC North Title.

But this case is different to me. This one is just a little bit different. I think the day belongs to Chicago.

The main knock on the Bears coming into the playoffs is that Jay Cutler couldn’t make the big play. Not only could not make the big play, but he would make the big mistake. But after Cutler’s first game — albeit against 8-9 Seattle — he proved to be quite the opposite.

Cutler accounted for four of the five touchdowns, threw for 274 yards, rushed for 43 more, and was completely, entirely, 100% mistake free. He was a true leader of men, posting 35 points, and Chicago led by double digits for over 46 minutes of the game. This was a new Jay Cutler.

To win a Super Bowl, you need a quarterback who can make the big play. He needs to be able to make THE play on THE drive to win THE game. That’s something Big Ben has done. That’s something Tom Terrific has done. But oddly enough, it’s something Peyton Manning can’t quite figure out. Jay Cutler can make the play. Sure, he’ll probably make a bone-headed mistake early on in the game, but when it matters most, he can make it count.

Then there’s Aaron Rodgers. Thanks to the prominence of fantasy football, he’s been thrust too the top of the league. Boy, can he put up numbers! He’s been averaging 263 yards passing per game with 6 games of at least 300 yards. He’s even rushed for 356 yards! But a lot of that is garbage time yardage racked up at home against bad teams. How does Brett Favre’s successor do in bigger situations?

On the road this season, his passing yardage falls down to 245 per game. Not that big of a slip, huh? But his record goes down to a lowly 5-4 mark. In his two games against Chicago, he only put up 27 points on two touch downs to two interceptions. Not only that, but Chicago didn’t even put out full effort in their Week 17 matchup. He’s just not the same quarterback in the bigger games.

We know what kind of offenses will show up, but what about the defenses? Green Bay is usually near the top of the league at stopping the run, but this year they’re just awful. At 28th in the league, Green Bay is giving up 4.7 yards per carry. That’s a full yard per pop more than Chicago’s 5th ranked run D. As for pass defense, they’re just about equal. Green Bay gives up on average 6.5 yards pass with Chicago just trailing at 6.6 per try. Both have nice secondaries, the Packers having better corners, but oberall, they’re about even.

Remember, special teams is still one third of the football game.

Whichever team can put more pressure on the opposing quarterback will have a huge edge in this game. As good as Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and they’re long flowing hair have been, I’ll take Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Lance Briggs. For my money, Julius Peppers is the best pass rusher in the league. He’s built like a beast and is freakishly athletic. Also, he played basketball at Carolina (in case you haven’t heard).

The Bears are at home. They are motivated. They’re talented. They’ll shove Matt Forte and Chester Taylor down the Packers’ throat and power their way to the Super Bowl. Oh, yeah, and they got that Devin Hester guy.

STEELERS (-4) over Jets

Can’t Wait!

Can’t Wait!

Can’t Wait!

Geez, can the Jets get any more annoying? Actually, the Jets are finally shutting their mouths.

After beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive playoff games (the first time any team has done it), Rex Ryan finally decided to tone his antics down. He took shots at Peyton. He took shots at Brady. But he had nothing to say about Big Ben and the Steelers.

So what does this mean? Do they truly fear the Steelers? Do they see something we don’t? I think they’re afraid of Big Ben.

Why else would a team who has blown smoke all year suddenly stop their talking. I don’t think you should repeatedly call out the other team, but when you’ve gone this far down this road, there’s no point in turning back. You’ve just gotta role with your crazy game.

Mike Tomlin, one of the league's best coaches, doesn't get near the praise he deserves.

The Steelers clearly out-match the Jets. They out-match them in almost every way. Quarterback? Check Plus. Running back? Check. Receivers? Check. Defense? Check. Coaches? Check. But that doesn’t mean this game will be a blow out.

New York has a knack for winning games. Rex Ryan found a way to win four of his first five playoff games, all but one of which were on the road. I’m still not exactly sure how he does it, but he wins games. Their defense steps up, and Mark Sanchez makes enough big plays not to single-handedly kill his team.

If we’re talking about defenses, no one is better than Pittsburgh. Number one run defense by far. Number one pass defense per play. You can try to beat this team’s defense, but you won’t be able to. They have the best front seven in the game and the biggest defensive difference maker in Troy Polamalu. How important is he? With him, the Steelers are 24-5. Without him? 6-7.

To beat the Steelers, the Jets are going to have to out-score the Steelers. With Sanchez going into Heinz Field, the chances of that are about equal to that of Jared Sullinger’s number. Pittsburgh’s offense is more potent and their defense is more dangerous. I don’t see this as a blowout, but I certainly don’t see this game being a big speed bump for Black and Yellow.

This is your Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week. Can’t Wait!

Last Week: 2 -2

Season: 130-134

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 13-6