The New Kid on the Block: Mike Leake

Posted on June 13, 2010 by benweinrib

Here we are, 72 days into the season, and Nationals’ superstar prospect Stephen Strasburg has only started two games. Seven selections later in the 2009 Draft, the Reds selected Mike Leake, a polished starting pitcher out of Arizona State. Instead of giving Leake time to further develop in the minors, the Reds made Leake only the 20th player to bypass the minor leagues. Now he has a 2.68 ERA and no losses through 12 starts; Leake is clearly the best pitcher on their staff.

This off-season, all the chatter was about Stephen Strasburg and a Reds rookie pitcher. No, not Leake, but flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman. Leake went completely under the radar and stepped up in Spring Training to seize the final spot in the Cincinnati rotation over Chapman and Travis Wood.

Leake has never been a flashy player. He’s listed at 6’1″ but is really more like 5’11”, rarely hits higher then 92 on the radar, and induces lots of ground balls. Before the draft, a Reds scout went to see him pitch, trying to find a reason to dislike him, but he couldn’t. Leake is athletic, he has a wide arsenal of pitches, and he can pitch deep into games. Most importantly, he gets the job done.

Mike Leake's game as scrappy as his beard

Mike Leake's game as scrappy as his hair and beard

Leake spent three years Arizona State, and ended up as one of the most dominating pitchers in college. The first two years, his ERA stayed in the mid-3.00s and complied 24 wins and two saves. Nothing too special, batters hit .256 off him. But he made a big leap in his junior year. Leake started 18 games as a Sun Devil and won 16 of them. His ERA was more then halved, from 3.59 to 1.71. The opposition only hit .193 against him. His strikeout rate rocketed from 7.17 to 10.27 per nine innings. All of a sudden, Leake became the best college pitcher after Stephen Strasburg.

Leake’s dominance is even more surprising considering his competition. Whereas Strasburg pitched against the likes of Utah, New Mexico, and Wagner, Leake consistently played against the big boys in a major conference. Arizona State is one of the most stories college baseball programs, reaching 22 College World Series and winning five of them.

Whether it was lack of size or elite velocity, Leake fell into the Reds’ lap at #8 in the draft, and they found themselves a great young starting pitcher. Featuring a sinking fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, Leake has been off to a historic season. He is the first Cincinnati pitcher ever – not just rookie – to go undefeated after 12 starts. Leake owns a 5-0 record and a 2.68 ERA, both a testament to his hard work and determination.

Not only has Leake stepped up to enter the record books, but he has also stepped up into the role of the Reds ace. Leake is the only Reds starter to have an ERA under 4.50, and he is nearly two runs below that! In eight out of twelve starts, he has given up two or less runs, and in seven starts he’s surrendered two or less walks. Leake has even stepped up at the plate, where he is hitting .400 through 31 trips to the plate.

By now, it is clear the Reds made the right decision when they chose Mike Leake for the final spot in the rotation over Chapman and Wood. The common thought on young pitchers is to give them plenty of time in the minors for two reasons: to give them more seasoning and to save money.

Last season, the Braves had a very good pitching prospect, Tommy Hanson. They wanted to prevent him from reaching Super Two Status, so they left him to dominate in the Minors for the first two months of the year. From that point on, Hanson won 13 games and was lights out for most of the year. The Braves finished the season 5 games out of the playoffs. It’s very conceivable that if Hanson had an extra 10-12 starts, the Braves would have made the playoffs. They chose money of winning.

One year later, the Braves were in the same situation. Jason Heyward, the next big thing, crushed major league pitching in spring training and deserved a spot on the 25-man Opening Day roster. Trying not to make the same mistake they made the year previous, Atlanta opted to let the young star play a full season in the majors. Now, they lead the NL East by 1.5 games over the Mets.

The Nationals were in a similar situation at the start of this season when dealing with Stephen Strasburg. They had a choice to make between winning and money. Keep Stephen Strasburg for an extra year at a lower cost or have two extra months of Strasburg. They chose the former, and look where they are now: 5.5 games out of the playoffs. There is no doubt that if the Nats had given Strasburg 12 extra starts over the likes of J.D. Martin and Luis Atilano, Washington could be atop the NL East. So, maybe having Strasburg for two months in his rookie season isn’t as valuable as he will be in 5 years, but winning now is more important then winning later.

So after letting their prized prospect just straight to the Bigs, the Reds can only be pleased with what they see. They have a future top-of-the-rotation stud in Leake and are perched atop the NL Central. Cincy made their choice between winning and money, and the decision clearly will make an impact on your season. So which do you want: the money, or the wins?

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Dallas Braden's Fiery Game

Posted on June 9, 2010 by benweinrib

It’s not too rare to hear a player call out an umpire, an opponent, a coach, or other personnel in any sport. But to call out a 12 time All-Star who will likely own the career home run record is profound. Dallas Braden called out Alex Rodriguez when A-Rod ran over his mound as he was running from third to first after a foul ball. Braden, clearly more in tune with the unwritten rules of baseball, yelled at Rodriguez and blasted him in the post-game press conference, calling him disrespectful towards the game and more. 17 days later, Braden threw a perfect game, leading to his grandmother attending the game to say, “Stick it, A-Rod.”

According to Rodriguez, he was shocked at what happened; “especially from a guy that has a handful of wins in his career … I thought it was pretty funny actually.” Clearly, A-Rod didn’t care much for Mr. Braden, and the feeling is mutual. So the question becomes, would Braden have said that if Yankee teammate Derek Jeter was the one who ran over the mound. There are two simple answers. First off, Jeter wouldn’t jog over the mound; he respects the game enough to not do that. Second off, we can tell by his family (specifically his grandmother) that he would have yelled at anyone, be it A-Rod, Jeter, or Albert Pujols.

One month ago, no one new who Dallas Braden was, but now he's made a name for himself

One month ago, no one new who Dallas Braden was, but now he's made a name for himself

While a high school senior, Braden’s mother passed away, leaving him to live with his grandmother. Because of this, his grandmother and Mother’s Day means even more to this young pitcher. So on this special day, he showed up big time, proving his doubters wrong, and putting his name out there as one of the better young pitchers in the game.

Fighting is nothing for Braden; he’s had to claw his way to the top of the baseball world. Braden didn’t have the hype that many players have gotten, and he was drafted in the 24th round by Oakland. Drawing comparisons to Jamie Moyer and a lesser version of Mark Buehrle, Braden has never had elite velocity or a hard breaking pitch. But after five years in the minor leagues, he finally secured the second spot in the rotation, beating out highly touted prospects Brett Cahill, Vin Mazarro, and Josh Outman. Now, he’s one of the more fiery players in the game.

So the new kid on the block picked on the bully. Is this more about Braden not shrinking to any foe, or how the bully just doesn’t get the respect that his production would indicate he deserves?

A-Rod has been, well, a lightning rod for attention. Between slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove in the 2004 ALCS, Yelling at Toronto Howie Clark while rounding third base, and now crossing Braden’s pitching mound, Rodriguez has deservedly acquired a poor reputation among players and the media.

Baseball, as opposed to football and basketball, is a game of tradition. Swagger and showing up opponents is widely frowned upon in baseball whereas in the other two, it is all too common. For example, Rangers’ prospect Engel Beltre stepped up to the plate in the 10th inning and smashed the ball over the right field fence for a walk-off home run. As he rounded the bases, he turned around and taunted the opposition and jogged backwards. From there, a fight broke out and pandemonium broke loose. If Kobe Bryant knocks down a game winning shot, his team goes crazy and they yell at the other team, but that never, ever happens in baseball.

You have to respect the game of baseball. You have to honor its traditions, rules, and even its unwritten rules. The team is bigger then the player. Outside of Stephen Strasburg, you’ll never go to a game just to see one player, whereas you may go to a basketball game just to see LeBron James or Dwayne Wade. Baseball doesn’t sell players; they sell teams and, again, tradition.

A-Rod is one of those rogue players who is oftentimes concerned about his personal image and stats. As Braden puts it, “He’s an individualistic player. He plays for the name on the back of the jersey, not the front. I don’t know if he’s noticed, but he doesn’t have a name on the back over there so he should play for the name on the front.”

To Braden’s point, A-Rod and other players like him need to respect the game more and show etiquette. Since Rodriguez is the poster boy for arrogant players who disrespect the game, it is his job to change his behavior, which can only lead to others’ change. “He should probably take a note from his captain over there and realize you don’t cross the pitcher’s mound in between an inning or during the game.” says Braden. “I was just dumbfounded that he would let that slip his mind — being someone of such status. I don’t care if I’m Cy Young or the 25th man on the roster”

So after the A-Rod/Braden feud and Braden’s subsequent perfect game, two things are for certain: A-Rod and players like him need to clean up their act and we need more people like Dallas Lee Braden. In closing, Mr. Braden has offered Mr. Rodriguez a quote to ponder: “I was always told if you give a fool enough rope, he’ll hang himself, and with those comments, he had all the rope he needed.”

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A Rivalry Renewed

Posted on June 3, 2010 by benweinrib

No, we won’t see Bird and Magic. No, we won’t see Red Aurbach and we won’t get the old school Lakers. But what we will get is a classic finals matchup. Kobe and Pierce. Gasol and Garnett. Jackson and Rivers. Steve Nash and Dwight Howard aren’t the best the NBA has to offer, its Lakers versus Celtics.

There is a saying used well too much across sports, especially in the NBA: you can’t just flip a switch and turn on your game. Well, the Celtics proved that cliché wrong. The Celtics started out strong (28-13), but finished the year barely at a crawl (22-19). Rasheed Wallace looked like a $19 million waste of space and the Big 3 looked overmatched. Many picked them to lose to Miami in the first round. No one, and I mean no one (except for myself and Skip Bayless) took them to take down LeBron James. And everyone loved Orlando over Boston in the Conference Finals. And now here they are, back in the NBA Finals for the 21st time.

The Lakers, on the other hand, had a much easier path to the Finals. Clearly the best in the West, they cruised through the first three rounds. Oklahoma City was a nice appetizer, but there youth was no match for the been-there-done-that Lakers team. Utah couldn’t do much, especially considering they were missing Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur. The Suns’ zone defense did a number on LA, but Phil Jackson eventually figured it out and Kobe led them on.

Born just outside of Los Angeles, Paul Pierce always makes it a mission to play big in LA

Born just outside of Los Angeles, Paul Pierce always makes it a mission to play big in LA

The teams are different, although their cores have remained the same since they last met in June two years ago. Rajon Rondo has matured into superstar, and Kendrick Perkins has become a great defender. Rasheed Wallace and Nate Robinson provide energy off the bench. For the Lakers, Andrew Bynum has become a force down low and Ron Artest replaced Trevor Ariza. So are both teams better? Sure, but how much of a difference will they make?

Two years ago, the Celtics rode the back of the Big 3 to make the Finals. This year, Rajon Rondo brought them to the promise land. Rondo has been able to take over games, and he will pose a humongous problem to the Lakers. The biggest weakness for the Lakers all year has been at point guard. While Derek Fisher is clutch late in games and in big games, he is one of the worst defenders at his position. Russell Westbrook torched him for 20.5 points per game while Deron Williams and Steve Nash racked up 22 and 17.6 points per game respectively. Rondo is a better scorer then the three of them.

While Rondo has been the best scorer in the East, no one has been as dominant as Kobe Bean Bryant. This man cannot be stopped. Its only if he can withstand all of the injuries he’s had over the last three years, and if he is rested enough after playing nearly three straight years of tough basketball. Paul Pierce will do his best to contain the Bean, but you can’t stop him.

The battle down low will be key to this series. Not too long ago, Andrew Bynum had he knee drained, and the Lakers need him to be playing well to win. Pau Gasol has been historically soft, especially versus the Celtics. KG is fully healthy and should be able to mostly take Gasol out of the game. Kendrick Perkins won’t do much offensively, but should be able to contain Bynum, assuming he doesn’t receive a seventh technical foul and gets suspended.

There are three X-Factors to this series: Rasheed Wallace, Lamar Odom, and Nate Robinson. Whichever player is best off the bench will play a huge role in determining who will win this series. If Rasheed plays like he is 28 and not 35, the Lakers will have no chance. Odom is a two faced player, like a player on a sugar high and low. He can have 19 point/19 rebound performances like in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, or he can put up a 3-12 shooting night like in Game 7. Odom is clearly one of the most talented players in the league, but he doesn’t always have the motivation. Nate will likely only come in when Rondo is on the bench, but he is a one of the most electric players in the league and can provide offense by the bunches.

In the end, the Celtics are a more mature team with more winners. They have four Hall of Famers (Pierce, Garnett, Allen, and Wallace) with another potential HOFer on the way (Rondo). The Lakers haven’t faced a defense as stringent as that of Boston in a long time. Players like Ron Artest, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom are too risky to be depended on in the key moments. Now that Kobe has his ring without Shaq, he’s gone into Selfish Kobe mode, more focused on the scorecard then the rings.

Boston has made 20 finals and won 17. Boston has faced the Lakers 11 times in the finals, winning 9. Boston has won 32 road games this season most in the leauge, and they will take one of the first two games in the Staples Center before closing it out on the road. We will see one tough series with lots of hostilities. Boston will take home the hardware in 7.

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NBA Mock Draft 2.0

Posted on June 3, 2010 by benweinrib

The Wizards won the lottery, so what does this mean for the rest of the league? This is what I’m here for, your semi-sports expert with insider knowledge. In case you missed my first mock draft, there are many changes across the board. With my beloved Bobcats lacking draft picks, this could just be my least biased mock draft ever. Here is my projected first round with analysis plus the next five picks.

1. Washington Wizards – John Wall (PG, 6’4″ 196 lbs, Kentucky)
Wall is clearly the best talent in the draft with his freakish athleticism, speed, and play making ability. The question for Washington won’t be if Wall can fit in with incumbent point guard Gilbert Arenas, but if Arenas can survive with Wall. Arenas plays more like a shooting guard then a point guard, so the fit should be great.

2. Philadelphia 76ers – Evan Turner (SG, 6’7″ 214 lbs, Ohio State)
The Sixers are ecstatic to jump four places in the draft, nearly ensuring them a star for the future. Turner is the most versatile player in the draft, able to play the point and both wing positions. As long as the Sixers still have Andre Iguodala, Turner will either start at small forward (where he will be undersized) or come off the bench. The Sixers could also take a big man such as Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins here.

3. New Jersey Nets – Derrick Favors (PF, 6’10” 245 lbs, Georgia Tech)
No one was more disappointed after the NBA Draft Lottery then the Nets and their Russian billionaire owner. They didn’t get the top two picks, so they won’t get Wall and likely won’t get Turner. All of that being said, Derrick Favors is a very nice consolation prize. While Cousins is the greater talent, Favors will work better with All-Star caliber center Brook Lopez. Favors has perhaps the biggest upside in the draft with great measurements and a fantastic offensive game.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves – Wesley Jonson (SF, 6’8″ 206 lbs, Syracuse)
DeMarcus Cousins would be a great value pick here, but the Timberwolves have greater needs. Wesley Johnson fills three voids: small forward, star power, and a major scorer. Cousins isn’t on the floor long enough to make the kind of impact Minnesota needs at this pick. With big men like Hassan Whiteside and Donatas Motiejunas potentially available at 16, Johnson is the right pick here.

DeMarcus Cousins is the 2nd biggest talent in the draft, but he's a headcase

DeMarcus Cousins is the 2nd biggest talent in the draft, but he's a headcase

5. Sacramento Kings – DeMarcus Cousins (C, 6’11” 292 lbs, Kentucky)
If Cousins falls all the way to the fifth pick, the Kings will be overjoyed. After Wall, Cousins has the most potential in the draft. When he isn’t in foul trouble, there is no one more efficient on the boards and offensively the Cousins; this man is a beast. The Kings have spent two of their last three first-round picks on big men, but neither Spencer Hawes nor Jason Thompson have truly shown flashes of brilliance. The Kings would really like to get a guard here, but Wall and Turner will be long gone and any other guard here would be a stretch.

6. Golden State Warriors – Greg Monroe (PF/C, 6’11” 247 lbs, Georgetown)
The Warriors are set for the future in their backcourt between Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, but their frontcourt is horrendous. Towards the end of the year, undrafted Anthony Tolliver and career backup Ronny Turiaf were starting. Georgetown big man Greg Monroe has two things that Warriors’ coach Don Nelson absolutely loves: size and great passing ability. At Monroe’s size , he will start at center and be a perfect fit in Nelson’s fast-paced offensive system.

7. Detroit Pistons – Ed Davis (PF, 6’10” 227 lbs, North Carolina)
This is an unfamiliar situation, landing in the lottery the first time since they messed up in 2003, drafting Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade. Of the biggest needs for the Pistons is front line depth. With Ben Wallace and Jonas Jerebko starting down low, a big man will be order with the seventh pick. Ed Davis is the best remaining power forward, although things could turn awkward if Davis gets playing time over the Pistons $55 million man, Charlie Villanueva. Kansas center Cole Aldrich could be an option here, but inside sources shot down this idea. Al-Farouq Aminu has much better potential, but the last thing the Pistons need is another 3-4 forward scorer.

8. Los Angeles Clippers – Al-Farouq Aminu
Despite what most fans say, the Clippers actually have a bright future with some great young talent. Between Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman to go with veteran point guard Baron Davis, all they are missing is a small forward. With the departure of Al Thornton, Aminu is a perfect fit. His freakish athleticism and upside are tremendous for this pick.

9. Utah Jazz – Cole Aldrich (C, 6’10” 236 lbs, Kansas)
Utah will face the departures of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur this off-seasonm so they’ll need to pick a big man here. Utah probably is hoping that Greg Monroe will be around, but more then likely he will be gone. With Paul Millsap as a more then capable backup, drafting a power forward like Ekpe Udoh may not be productive. Kansas center Cole Aldrich was just about the most dominant big man in college, but he is being undervalued by scouts.

10. Indiana Pacers – Ekpe Udoh (PF, 6’10” 237 lbs, Baylor)
After failing to make the playoffs and falling below expectations, the Pacers are now in no mans land: not in the playoffs and no high draft picks. Danny Granger needs a side kick, and Ekpe Udoh won’t cut it for a worthy side kick. Sadly, Ekpe Udoh is the best they’ll be able to get. High upside swingmen Gordon Hayward and Xavier Henry won’t work well alongside Granger and Brandon Rush, so Udoh will be the pick.

11. New Orleans Hornets – Gordon Hayward (SF, 6’8″ 211 lbs, Butler)
The Hornets could use help down low, but drafting Hassan Whiteside or Daniel Orton would be a stretch here. Peja Stojakovic is getting old and the Hornets need help on the perimeter. Hayward plays more like a guard then a forward, so he could end up playing the 2-guard in the pros, plus he won’t have to guard athletic small forwards like LeBron and Carmelo. Hayward really needs to bulk up and could have really benefited from another year in college. Xavier Henry or Avery Bradley could be another pick here, but they would be a bit of a stretch.

12. Memphis Grizzlies – Eric Bledsoe (PG, 6’2″ 192 lbs, Kentucky)
The Grizzlies have lots of problems to address. Of them, point guard and small forward (assuming Rudy Gay leaves via free agency) are the biggest shortcomings. While Bledsoe is a slight stretch at #12, he is an elite talent that was smothered in Kentucky in the massive shadow of John Wall. Bledsoe would immediately become the starter, splitting time with incumbent Mike Conley. Bledsoe is a great talent that many people are overlooking, and he could be the greatest value in the draft.

13. Toronto Raptors – Avery Bradley (SG, 6’3″ 180 lbs, Texas)
When he signed with the Texas Longhorns, Avery Bradley was the fourth biggest recruit. He never became that big time scorer, only putting up 11 points and 2 assists per game. However, the Raptors need a scorer with the departure of Chris Bosh (I am going to assume Bosh is traded to the Lakers for Andrew Bynum, so the Raptors won’t need to stretch to pick Hassan Whiteside or Donatas Motiejunas). Bradley will start as the first guard off the bench, but may eventually evolve into the point guard of the future or compete with DeMar DeRozan for starting shooting guard duties.

14. Houston Rockets – Donatas Motiejunas (PF, 7’0″ 220 lbs, Lithuania)
The Rockets lacked height last season after missing Yao Ming for the entire season; they had to start 6’6″ Chuck Hayes at center. Motiejunas is a very skilled forward (similar to big European forwards Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol) and will add much needed size to Houston’s front line. Motiejunas can either get stronger in Europe or play off the bench under the wings of Yao, Luis Scola, and Jordan Hill.

15. Milwaukee Bucks – Paul George (SF, 6’9″ 214 lbs, Fresno State)
The Bucks shocked the world last year when they made the playoffs last year, thanks mostly to explosive rookie point guard Brandon Jennings. With Andrew Bogut emerging as a great center, the Bucks now need a quality forward – at least one better then Luc Richard Mbah a Moute or Carlos Delfino. Paul George is one of the players with the biggest upsides, he has size with range on his shot.

16. Minnesota Timberwolves – Hassan Whiteside (C, 7’0″ 227, Marshall)
Minnesota seems to be set on playing Al Jefferson at power forward and letting Kevin Love come off the bench, so after drafting a wing scorer, a big man will be in order. Hassan Whiteside not only is tall, but has a freakish 7’7″ wing span. If he can improve his offensive game, he could end up being a force on the boards. Otherwise, he could be the next Alexis Ajinça.

17. Chicago Bulls – James Anderson (SG, 6’6″ 210 lbs, Oklahoma State)
Chicago needs a scoring sidekick to Derrick Rose, and James Anderson is the perfect fit. Anderson was one of the best scoring guards in all of college basketball last year, and he’s one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. With a young core of Rose, Anderson, and Joakim Noah, the Bulls will be set for the future. Chicago will still have cap space to land a max player like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, or Carlos Boozer.

18. Miami Heat – Daniel Orton (C, 6’10” 269 lbs, Kentucky)
Miami needs a post presence after the corpse of Jermaine O’Neal leaves via free agency. Even though he only average 3 points and 3 rebounds per game at Kentucky, he big body makes him one of the more sought after prospects in the draft. With his 7’4″ wingspan, Orton can become a dominant big man, albeit being a little undersized.

19. Boston Celtics – Xavier Henry (SG, 6’7″ 210 lbs, Kansas)
The Celtics’ Big 3 is aging, and Ray Allen is a free agent. They need another wing scorer and will be ecstatic if Xavier Henry falls this far. Henry has an adult body with a mature game, although he is only 19 years old. Henry could step in to be a major contributor next to Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce.

20. San Antonio Spurs – Damion James (SF, 6’8″ 227 lbs, Texas)
Richard Jefferson was one of the biggest disappointments this year, so the Spurs will need to pick up another forward. Damion James is one of the most mature and polished players in the draft and going under the radar. James won’t have to start at the beginning of the year, so there won’t be the pressure of higher drafted players placed on James’ shoulders.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder – Patrick Patterson (PF, 6’8″ 245 lbs, Kentucky)
For the first time since moving from Seattle, the Thunder won’t be picking in the lottery. OKC really needs a center, but there are no centers available here. Luke Babitt will be enticing here, but they don’t want to hurt the progress of Kevin Durant. Patrick Patterson will bring more maturity to the Thunder and will provide insurance off the bench behind Durant and Jeff Green. His inside and outside presence are both above average plus he has a big body which is key on defense.

22. Portland Trail Blazers – Luke Babitt (SF, 6’9″ 214 lbs, Nevada)
Portland would be shocked if Babitt fell this far, and they’ll find great value in this big-time scorer. Drawing comparisons to Adam Morrison (for better or for worse), Babitt is an immediate upgrade over Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster. Babitt is lacking on defense, but he can make the Blazers instant contenders next to Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves – Kevin Seraphin (PF, 6’10” 258, France)
The T-Wolves will be taking their third player in the first round, so they can take a big swing here (and not another point guard). Seraphin will likely remain in France for another year or two, so Minnesota will stash him with Ricky Rubio in Europe in hope that they will get a Boris Diaw- or Joakim Noah-like return. While they don’t necessarily need another big man after Jefferson, Love, and now Whiteside, Seraphin could be a key piece in their future plans.

24. Atlanta Hawks – Larry Sanders (PF, 6’11” 222 lbs, VCU)
One of the biggest reasons the Hawks couldn’t take one game from the Magic was their size. Starting 6’10” Al Horford at center and 6’9″ Josh Smith at power forward, they couldn’t match up with Dwight Howard. Larry Sanders will add size to their front line and fits perfectly into the Hawks’ system. He is extremely long with great athleticism and can run along with Smith, J-Smooth, and Joe Johnson. Solomon Alabi would add more size, but he isn’t a great fit with the team.

25. Memphis Grizzlies – Quincy Pondexter (SF, 6’7″ 220 lbs, Washington)
With Rudy Gay’s impending departure, the Grizzlies will really need to find an heir apparent. They like Luke Babitt, but the twelfth pick was too early and he’ll be gone by this pick. Pondexter was one of the top seniors in college with a great scoring ability while still crashing the boards.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder – Solomon Alabi (C, 7’1″ 237 lbs, Florida State)
When it comes to top-line centers, Nedad Krstic and Nick Collison hardly ever come up. Therefore, Solomon Alabi is the perfect pick here. Alabi and Serge Ibaka should step up this year to form a big man rotation. Alabi is a nice value here and adds size to a team that desperately needs an inside presence.

27. New Jersey Nets – Lance Stephenson (SG, 6’6″ 227 lbs, Cincinnati)
Assuming Evan Turner doesn’t fall to the Nets with the third pick, the Nets will need a swing man who can flat out sore. Lance Stephenson is a slight stretch at the end of the first round, but he has something that the Nets really love: starpower. Stephenson was a highly sought after recruit that ended up going to Cincinnati because the coach essentially lets his players run wild. He will bring his streetball back to the place he grew up (Brooklyn) and take the Nets’ fan base by storm.

28. Memphis Grizzlies – Craig Brackins (PF, 6’10” 229 lbs, Iowa State)
At this point in the draft, the Grizzlies have already addressed their needs at point guard and small forward, so all they have left is at power forward. Zach Randolph was a force last season, but he is crazy and could be facing a suspension for drug charges. Memphis is fairly thin at the 4, so Craig Brackins and Keith Gallon would be the best fits here. Brackins is more polished and has a better shot, plus he is a high character player.

29. Orlando Magic – Willie Warren (PG, 6’4″ 210 lbs, Oklahoma)
Although the Magic don’t necessarily need another 3-point shooter, Warren is quite the steal at the end of the first round. Coming into the year, Warren was a projected lottery pick, but due to injuries and a rift between he and his coach, his stock has fallen dramatically. That being said, he is a lights out shooter who can play the point or go out to the perimeter. Orlando will need a backup point guard and a spark off the bench and a spark off the bench, especially if they don’t bring back J.J. Redick.

30. Washington Wizards – Keith Gallon (PF, 6’10” 302 lbs, Oklahoma)
The Wizards have plenty of needs to address; they are really just a mess of a franchise. They have plenty of selfish scorers between Gilbert Arenas, Josh Howard, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller, so they need a big man down low who can rebound and alter the opposition’s shots. Keith Gallon had a poor year considering his expectations coming out of high school, but he has a gigantic body and a solid offensive game.

Next 5 off the board: Stanley Robinson, Devin Ebanks, Elliot Williams, Dexter Pittman, and Jordan Crawford

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NFL Draftermath, Part I

Posted on June 1, 2010 by benweinrib

What if I told you the you could have a quarterback who was a model citizen and a true winner? In the age of high profile players getting into big problems (Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick), role models are essential, but hard to find. But not only does this man steer safe of trouble, he gives back to the community. He is the definition of a winner and has the competitive drive of no play in college football in a long time. He has size (6’3″ 245) and he has a strong arm. He can even run when the pocket starts to collapse. Shouldn’t every team want this player? And shouldn’t everyone love him?

As you have probably figured out, this man is Timothy Richard Tebow. But for some strange reason, Tebow is the most hated college player since J.J. Redick. When Denver traded up to the 25th pick in this year’s NFL Draft, the crowd erupted in boos. Mel Kiper’s face turned visibly red. Steve Young looked ready to punch someone. But Jon Gruden was ecstatic. That sums up the feelings for Florida’s star quarterback. Most people either loved it or absolutely hated it. As for me, I like to say, “Why not?”

One of the biggest concerns for Tebow going into the draft was his release point. Throughout his college career he had a near sidearm motion, something scout absolutely hate. But if you remember, Philip Rivers had the same “problem” when he was drafted #3 overall out of N.C. State. Now, Rivers is a Pro Bowl quarterback with a $40 million contract and an even bigger pay day coming up.

As for another quarterback with poor mechanics, look no further then Tony Romo. Often criticized for a terrible release point and strange throwing motion, Romo has still found great success in the NFL. Making three Pro-Bowls with an average QB rating of 95.6 and over 3,700 yards per season. Even though Romo has only one playoff win in four games, he has gone from an undrafted free agent out of Eastern Illinois to an NFL superstar. Tebow will never go from nothing to something, but he could prove his doubters wrong in the same way Romo had to.

At Florida, Tebow was under the greatest scenario possible in college. He had a great college coach who can turn anyone into a star (Chris Leak and Alex Smith). He was surrounded by great players at receiver (Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, and Riley Cooper). Although he had plenty of weapons in his arsenal, Tebow was able to take plenty of matters into his own hands. No one in college was more competitive; no one wanted to win more the Mr. Tebow.

Now, Tebow is on a team in the Broncos that wants him to be the man. Instead of him having to completely re-do his throwing motions, the Broncos can change their offense to suit him. With speedy receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal along with second year running back Knowshon Moreno, a spread offense wouldn’t be out of the question, especially with an innovative coach like Josh McDaniels.

Unarguably, drafting Tebow with the 25th overall was the most risky pick in the draft, especially at the price they have to pay for him. While Tebow has the upside to be an elite quarterback in this league, he could just as likely have to become a running back, full back, or tight end in the future. This was a risk, however, that McDaniels needed to take considering the short life of an average NFL coach and how important it is to have a great quarter back. If Tebow is great, McDaniels is a genius and he has job security for the next five to ten years. If Tebow is a flop, the Broncos still have another high-upside young QB on the roster, Brady Quinn. If either of them pan out to their expectations, the Broncos have struck gold in star-power from the most important position in football.

Already, Tim Tebow has broken records without taking a snap. Tebow has the highest selling jersey in the league, more then Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. While Tebow is a new commodity, and the latter three quarter backs are still on the same team, its shocking that someone would buy a jersey of someone who may not touch the field this season, nor stay a quarterback for his entire career.

In the end, it comes down to character. He is a great guy who does everything right. He commands respect without asking for it, and there is no reason for anyone to hate him. People are searching for great character guys while they fume about what Ben Roethisberger did to a college student, yet overlook this great young man.

tim-tebow-7

"You will never see any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of the season."

More then anything, Tebow doesn’t want his team to lose. In the 2008-09 season, Florida lost to Mississippi 31-30 in the fourth week of the season. He didn’t take this loss lightly. After the game, he made a speech that has since been immortalized on the Gators’ campus. He said “I promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season.” And his promise came to fruition as Florida reached the pinnacle of the BCS, beating Oklahoma in the championship game 24-14.

During Spring Break in 2008, Tebow had a choice to make: go to the beach with his friends or do something bigger. Deciding that going to the beach would not benefit himself more then helping the community would to others, Tebow decided to return to his home country of the Philippines to do community service. This man is more then just a star quarterback; he cares for others and is one of the least selfish players in the game. Players these days are all about the paycheck, volunteering for publicity and improving their image. Tebow is different. Tebow is special.

People shouldn’t overlook great character players because of good off-the-field interests, whereas they should be concerned about people with off-the-field issues like Pacman Jones. Because a player loves his religion or has smarts shouldn’t prevent teams from giving them a chance, especially when they showed that they are as good as anyone in college. So, teams, who do you want: a questionable character with potential or a great guy with proven talent?

Categories: NFL | Leave a comment

Going Against the Grain

Posted on May 20, 2010 by benweinrib

A month ago, it was a forgone conclusion that the Cavs and Lakers would meet in the Finals. The Celtics were going to lose in the first or second round to younger, faster teams. The Suns didn’t have enough star power. The Mavs could out-talent the rest of the West. Public opinion would be 0-4-1 with a maybe on the Lakers behalf.

So what does this mean? Don’t listen to the court of common knowledge! Things aren’t as they seemed when the playoffs started in late April. The Lakers look lazy. The Celtics look three years younger. Steve Nash clearly has hockey-like toughness.

Old men are the new thing with Steve Nash (36), Paul Pierce (32), Kevin Garnett (33), Ray Allen (34), and Kobe Bryant leading their teams deep into the playoffs. But injuries to players like Kobe and Andrew Bynum could make the difference between a third round exit and the finals spotlight.

We are now 15 days away from the NBA Finals, so we are about to see the best of the best put it all on the line and fight for a ring.

Celtics (3) over Magic (2) in 6

Last season, the Magic caused matchup problems to every team. With Hedo Turkoglu leading the way, no team could match their length and size. Now, Hedo is gone and Vince Carter is in, so the team is certainly different then before. Now, there is no apparent player who will take a last second shot. Dwight Howard can’t shoot. Rashard Lewis isn’t dependable enough. Jameer Nelson isn’t even 6′, and Vince Carter is known for dunking (which he can’t do too well any more) and coming up short late.

You can't be a superstar if the other team wants you to shoot free throws

You can't be a superstar if the other team wants you to shoot free throws

One of the biggest surprises of the playoffs has been how much of an enigma Dwight Howard has been. Not only has he not showed up to play his best, but he is constantly sitting on the bench with multiple fouls. And when he is on the court, he hasn’t been doing much right. The Celtics have two players who can absolutely stop Superman. Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins can’t do much on the offensive end, but both have turned their game up a couple notches for the playoffs. Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen have a killer instinct that no one on the Magic is even close to having. Boston also has the best player on the court: Rajon Rondo. Rondo has been averaging nearly 18 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds these playoffs – and he’s doing it without much effort.

In the end, the Celtics have experience. In the regular season, youth tops age. But in the playoffs, experience tops rawness. No one will step up for Orlando. Boston wants it more. Orlando is rusty after running over a under-prepared Atlanta Hawks team and getting a week off. It all adds up and when Boston takes one or even two in Orlando, this series will be over in 6.

Suns (3) over Lakers (1) in 7

The Lakers absolutely symbolize Los Angeles. Kobe is crazy, and the rest of the team is lazy. The coach is a great strategist, but incredibly passive at the same time. The Suns are just the opposite. Up-beat. Run n’ Gun. All offense no defense. In a clash of opposites, we will see blow outs on both sides.

Steve Nash is a man on a mission these playoffs. Already a two-time MVP, he has never found success in the playoffs. Now that Phoenix defeated their long-time rival Spurs, the only team left in their way is the Lakers. Amare Stoudemire has been a force and no one can run the pick-and-role. Robin Lopez will be coming back and will be essential to stop LA bigs Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Normally, inserting a player who has been out for an extended period of time is a good way to mess up chemistry, but any time you can take out Jarron Collins from your starting lineup, it will likely help.

The Lakers historically have gone as Kobe has gone. Now that Kobe won a championship ring without Shaq, Kobe has switch from selfish record book Kobe to win at all costs Kobe back to selfish Kobe. He would rather prove that he can outscore and out-stat LeBron James and everyone else in the game. Derek Fisher can’t guard any point guards, so Steve Nash should have his way with Fish and the Lakers. Grant Hill can do a respectable job guarding Kobe, and since he has so little offensive expectations, he can focus exetensively on stopping the Black Mamba.

Phoenix is deeper, quicker, smarter, and have more reasons to win. They will be more focused and will surprise the Lakers and their fans by sneaking a Game 7 win in the Staples Center from a underwhelming crowd.

Categories: NBA | Leave a comment

A Little Health Never Hurt

Posted on May 5, 2010 by benweinrib

No one, and I mean no one, was under the radar and crushed by experts like the Celtics and Spurs. They’re too old. They can’t run with the young guys. They’re done. But after respective five and six game first round routes, these two teams looks like they can take down the giants in these playoffs. So what is the difference between the Spurs and Celtics of the regular season and the newer versions? Health.

In the playoffs, the cream rises to the top (Paul Pierce and Tim Duncan) while the B Class players (Jermaine O’Neal and Caron Butler) can’t come through. When people start to play tough defense and referees swallow their whistles in the playoffs, you need top-flight players, or at least former All-Stars. Oh yeah, and health.

During the regular season, the Celtics and Spurs were overcome with injuries. Between Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen’s injuries, Boston only played 59 games with a fully healthy starting lineup. Add on the fact that Big Baby missed six weeks because of surgery and Rasheed Wallace had to play over 22 minutes per game, it’s a wonder they won 41 of those games. The biggest problem for the Celtics during the regular season was age, which consequently led to injuries. Now that Boston is healthy, they are the same, deep team that won it all in 2008. Especially when you consider the fact that there will be nine off days between seven games, Boston looks like they have a great shot to take down LeBron and crew.

As for the Spurs, they have had their share of injuries, too. Tony Parker had a pair of bad knees before he broke a bone in his hand six weeks before the playoffs. This could actually prove to be a great thing, however, because he will now be at full strength when he has to run with Steve Nash and the Suns.

And now, for my Conference Semifinals predictions:

Boston Celtics (4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (1) in 7

Before the year, I picked the Celtics, Magic, Lakers, and Spurs to reach the conference finals, so why back out of my picks now? The Celtics are back to full health, so there’s no reason the Big 4 (yes, I went there) can’t make this a series. LeBron has an injured elbow, which will only make Paul Pierce’s life easier on defense and offense. You can make an argument that after LBJ, the Celtics have the next four best players on the court. And while neither team has a stellar coach, the Cavs clearly have the worst of the two. I can imagine what a conversation in a Cavs’ timeout probably sounds like…

I wonder if Mike Brown's expression of confusion ever leaves him?

I wonder if Mike Brown's expression of confusion ever leaves him?

Mike Brown: “Bron, I want you to drive to the rim then dish it out to Delonte or Mo on the wing for a three.

LeBron: “Nah, coach, I’m straight. I’m gonna take this one.”

Mike Brown: “Oh. Alright then.”

Not quite the confidence booster. Add on the fact that one team has been there and done that while the other was a miracle shot away from being swept in the Conference Finals. I’ll take the Celtics to sneak out of the series, silencing their doubters. Also, expect Skip Bayless to erupt in at least 20,000 “I told ya so”s and Peyton Manning comparisons.

Orlando Magic (2) over Atlanta Hawks (3) in 5

Okay, I’ll admit I was a little off picking the Bobcats over the Magic – but that was assuming Stephen Jackson would shoot more then 35.8% and more ridiculous barrage of three-pointers wouldn’t fall on Charlotte. Anyways, people are overlooking the reigning Eastern Conference champions. They have the most dominant big man in the league and a plethora of outside threats.

Atlanta, on the other hand is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. They have plenty of star power between Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford, but have looked terrible at times. They let the Bucks take them to seven games, even though Milwaukee was missing its best player, and they are 1-3 against the Magic and Cavaliers. Their leaders aren’t clutch down the stretch (see Johnson, Joe) and their coach is not too dependable.

In the end, the Hawks are 20-24 on the road and the Magic is 36-7 at home. The Hawks need to steal one game in Orlando to win this series, and they just can’t do it. Orlando, while they can be shaky, absolutely ran over a tough opponent in the Bobcats. This series won’t be as close as many make it out to be.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) over Utah Jazz (5) in 6

The Lakers are clearly the most talented team in the Western Conference, but the question is if and when they will turn on their A Game. Pau Gasol is too relaxed, Andrew Bynum can’t stay on the floor, Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest are too aggressive, Lamar Odom is waiting for a candy high, and Derek Fisher can’t guard anyone. That said, they have a clear coaching advantage and more depth then the Jazz.

At full strength, the Jazz would have a great chance to take down to take down LA. Unfortunately, they will be without Andrei Kirilenko for most of the series and Mehmet Okur for its entirety. This forces the Jazz to start Kyrylo Fesenko and Wesley Matthews, two players who really shouldn’t be getting even 20 minutes per game. Deron Williams should be a force this series, but Utah’s lack of size will ultimately prove too costly against Los Angeles’ two seven footers and Odom.

Going into the series, the Jazz had lost the last 14 matchups in the Staples Center – 6 of which are in the playoffs. The Jazz need to win at least one on the road, and that stat does not bode well for the men from Salt Lake City.

San Antonio Spurs (7) over Phoenix Suns (3) in 6

Old rivals meet again, but this time a different team is favored. San Antonio and Phoenix have had a history of bad blood against each other over the past decade, and this time there are new faces. The Spurs have the same core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli, but they also added frontcourt depth in Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair along with George Hill and Richard Jefferson on the wings. The Spurs have better depth, experience, and are frankly better then the new Suns.

The Suns have gone into the playoffs nearly every year with high hopes – only to get shot down by San Antonio. Whether they have Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw, Shawn Marion, Shaq, or Jason Richardson, they fall in five, six, and five games. The Suns are back to their Run n’ Gun style, but they don’t have Johnson, Diaw, Marion, or Raja Bell anymore. Those All-Stars are replaced with Robin Lopez (who is still injured), Richardson, and 37-year old Grant Hill. The Suns haven’t been able to down the Spurs before, so I don’t see a different outcome.

San Antonio my pick to meet Boston in the finals, and I am going to stick with that pick; they have the bets combination of talent and motivation among all of the teams remaining (yes, that’s knocking you, Los Angeles). Clutch players come through down the stretch, and you need star power to win. Give me the Spurs and give me the Celtics, we’ll talk in the next round.

Categories: NBA | Leave a comment

Bobcats Fever

Posted on April 18, 2010 by benweinrib

It was only five and a half years ago that the Bobcats trotted out perhaps the worst starting lineup in NBA history: Brevin Knight, Primoz Brezec, Jason Kapono, and young Emeka Okafor and Gerald Wallace. Jason Hart and Steve Smith (no, not that Steve Smith) were key contributors off the bench and the ‘Cats won a whopping 18 games.

Since then, the Bobcats added Stephen Jackson, Raymond Felton, Boris Diaw, Tyson Chandler, and most importantly, Larry Brown. Coach Brown put his “Play the Right Way” stamp on this team. Play defense. Good shot selection. Pass the ball. All of a sudden Charlotte is six games over .500 and in the playoffs. They won 19 games versus winning teams, including three versus the Cavaliers and another versus the Lakers.

The Bobcats don’t have the big stars of the Celtics, Lakers, or even the Heat. Big Shot Jack has (somehow) never made the All-Star Game, so Gerald Wallace is Charlotte’s lone All-Star; he was a reserve in Dallas this February. That said, this team has players who, well, play the game right. Raymond Felton has blossomed into a very nice point guard under LB and is a great leader late in games. Diaw, while undersized, often defends the other teams’ best big men, and defends them well. He can shoot well from anywhere on the floor and can pass as well as any point guard in the league.

We’ve all heard the phrase … defense wins championships. This concept works in every sport. Dominating defenses in the NFL make winners, just look at the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, and Giants this past decade. Even in baseball, fielding is become a highly important skill, especially as new defensive metrics have come out. In 2008, the two best defensive teams were the Rays and World Champion Phillies while the worst was Texas, who only finished with 79 wins. And basketball is no exception.

The Bobcats are not only a great defensive team; they are the best defensive team. They led the league in points allowed with just 93.8 PPG. Gerald Wallace was just about the bets defensive small forward, shutting down LeBron James and several other swingmen. Stephen Jackson is another elite defender, along with Tyson Chandler down low. Off the bench, Tyrus Thomas and Theo Ratliff are terrific at blocking and altering shots and just clogging the lane. In fact, the biggest strength of the Bobcats is the biggest weakness of the Magic.

Ask this to yourself: Do you really think a team who depends on Vince Carter can win it all?

Ask this to yourself: Do you really think a team who depends on Vince Carter can win it all?

Sure, the Magic have Dwight Howard and Matt Barnes, two of the best defenders in the league, but their other tree starters play no defense at all. Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Vince Carter play defense that wouldn’t even impress in a church basketball league. What this means is that Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, and Raymond Felton will run train on Orlando’s lackadaisical defense for about 80 points combined per game. Tyson Chandler isn’t much of an offensive force, so Dwight Howard won’t be taking much out of Charlotte’s offense.

As mentioned earlier, the biggest addition to the Bobcats over the last two years has been Larry Brown. Coaching makes a variable impact; it’s always hard to tell how much a coach really helps. Football Outsiders said that only two postseason head coaches impacted their team, Bill Belichick as a plus for the Pats and Norv Turner as a minus for the Chargers. Only four coaches in these NBA playoffs are Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan, and Larry Brown. LB is perhaps the best coach ever in basketball, and his stamp on Charlotte is finally sealed.

Ultimately, the Bobcats play defense, rebound, play the right way, and out hustle their opponents. The last time the Bobcats and Magic played, the ‘Cats out-rebounded Orlando by 12. On the road. With Chandler coming off the bench. The Bobcats are giant killers and they have their sights set. Catch the fever, Bobcats fever, and jump on the bandwagon before it’s too late.

Cleveland (1) over Chicago (8) in 5
I don’t necessarily like the Cavs to win it all (contrary to popular picks), but they over-match the Bulls in almost every way. LBJ should cruise through this series without too much sweat. Shaq should become more acclimated to playing alongside Antawn Jamison and the new Cavs team.

Charlotte (7) over Orlando (2) in 7
See above.

Atlanta (3) over Milwaukee (6) in 5
Milwaukee played well this year, but no one can convince me that a streaky Brandon Jennings and old Michael Redd can take down the young run-and-gun Hawks team. Joe Johnson, J-Smooth, and Al Horford should have no problem penetrating with Andrew Bogut out for the year.

Boston (4) over Miami (5) in 6
Nearly everyone is down on the Celtics this year, but the hate has gone too far. All this team needs is to be healthy for the remainder of the year and play like a well-prepared team. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen can still shoot as well as anyone and Rondo has become a top-5 NBA point guard. Miami can’t depend on D-Wade to win, and no team can win with Carlos Arroyo starting and giving major minutes to Dorrell Wright.

Los Angeles (1) over Oklahoma City (8) in 7
The Lakers are the defending champs, but the swap of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest has been detrimental to the team. Because Andrew Bynum is still injured (no surprise here), Lamar Odom will start and leave the Lakers’ bench as the worst second string in the league. The Thunders have chemistry and young talent, but ultimately don’t have the playoff experience to down the Lakers.

Dallas (2) over San Antonio (7) in 7
Just like the Celtics, all the Spurs need to succeed is health. Tim Duncan will always be a beast in the paint and Manu Ginobli has been a man possessed the last month of the season. Tony Parker is finally healthy, and they still have Richard Jefferson. Unfortunately, they are up against Dallas. The Mavs are perhaps the deepest team in the playoffs since they added Caron Butler at the trade deadline. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Butler, Shawn Marion, and crew will be too much for even Popovich and Duncan to handle.

Phoenix (3) over Portland (6) in 6
The Portland Trailblazers have faced a New York Mets-esque injury plague this season. First Greg Oden, then Joel Pryzbila, and most importantly Brandon Roy. They are a great young team full of talent, but without Roy, this team is average. Phoenix is back to it’s run-and-gun style, and any team with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire has a chance in this league.

Utah (5) over Denver (4) in 7
Both teams have a great shot at going to the Championship Game, so its a shame Denver and Utah have to play each other in the first round. Utah has the modern day version of John Stockton and Karl Malone in Deron Williams. The Nuggets have a superstar scorer and perhaps the best playoff point guard of the past decade, Chauncey Billups. The reason I give the slight edge to the Jazz is coaching. Jerry Sloan is one of the best in the league, while Denver’s George Karl will miss the series.

Categories: NBA | Leave a comment

2010 Baseball Preview

Posted on April 7, 2010 by benweinrib

With the 2010 baseball season finally here, my fourth annual Baseball Preview has arrived. The pictures are a little low on quality in order to be uploaded onto the blogs, so if you want the file in higher quality, comment and ask for it, and I will send it to you. Feel free to comment and please spread the word about my Preview.

Cover-3

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The Fantasy Manifesto

Posted on March 12, 2010 by benweinrib

The 2010 baseball season is just around the corner, and with regular season baseball comes the most underrated game of the decade – Fantasy Baseball. Fantasy Football has taken the United States by form, but not so much for baseball. Lifetime baseball fans have quickly attached themselves to this addicting game, and as the years go on and tracking capabilities grow stronger, more and more have joined.

There are all sorts of ways to play fantasy baseball. Auction or draft. NL-, AL-only, or mixed .league. Rotisserie or Head-to-Head. Keepers and prospects. No matter which way you play, you have to have a strategy. I’m not going to pretend that I am Matthew Berry, or anyone else in the ESPN fantasy department, but I do have quality advice for anyone and everyone for Fantasy Baseball. I won’t tell you who is the best at each position because you can just look that up on ESPN.com, but I will tell you who to buy low on, avoid, and take a flier on, in the least biased way possible.

There are three key notes for the start of the year, and they will apply to any way your league is set up, whether it be in a draft or auction.

  • You can’t win the draft in the first three rounds, but you can lose it.

In the first round, you will be picking from the likes of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, and Alex Rodriguez. There aren’t many mistakes you can make early, although I would be very cautious about drafting questionable player like David Wright and Matt Kemp. Some are sold on Kemp (I am not one), but you can’t go wrong with most players early. The problem arises if you draft players like Jose Reyes, Derek Jeter, Justin Upton, and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first three rounds. They will likely do well, but there is a very good chance that Reyes won’t stay healthy, Jeter will play like a 35-year old, and Upton and Ellsbury won’t continue hitting as well as they used to. Go safe early, and take more gambles late because a miss in the 9th and 10th round on Josh Hamilton and Brandon Webb won’t hurt as much as messing up by drafting Kemp and Reyes in rounds 1 and 2.

  • Don’t draft players early for small categories like steals and saves.

This year especially, speed will be easy to get and hard to avoid. In the outfield, you don’t have to target speed-power combo players like Grady Sizemore, Carl Crawford, and Curtis Granderson when there are plenty of fast players across the board. Unless you are planning to have an outfield of Adam Lind, Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells, and Adam Dunn, you will be able to find plenty of steals at the end of the draft. You can grab players like Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, and Juan Pierre late if you desperately need steals. With that in mind, I would also suggest against drafting speed only players (like Ellsbury) early when you can grab those players later.

As for saves, there are 30 closers and probably 8-12 teams in your league. That adds up to about three closers per team, which is really all you need. Closers will start coming off the board in the 7th to 8th round, and you’ll have to pass up players like Chris Carpenter, Aaron Hill, Derrek Lee, and Ben Zobrist to get a top-of-the-line closer. Mariano Rivera is clearly the best closer with Joe Nathan out, but he is not eight rounds different then Trevor Hoffman and Jose Valverde. Closers won’t drastically affect your ERA, WHIP, wins, or strikeouts, so there is no point in getting the first closer who may only get you 5-10 more saves then another closer several rounds later. There will also be three to five closers who will lose their job and you’ll have the opportunity to pick up their replacement; last year Andrew Bailey, J.P. Howell, and Fernando Rodney did not go into the season as their team’s closer but ended up with a combined 80 saves.

  • Wait on starting pitching, you can get a ton of quality late.

Roy Halladay will dominate the National League, and Tim Lincecum will be as dominant as he always is, but there is no use drafting the pair in the first and second rounds. Former Cy Young Award winners are scattered across the draft; Cole Hamels will be around the 10th round, Jake Peavy and John Lackey in the 11th, Roy Oswalt in the 13th, Carlos Zambrano in the 22nd, and Ben Sheets in the 24th. There is going to be quality pitching across the board, so I recommend drafting a very good pitcher somewhat early (even a Chris Carpenter-type) and then go for value with pitchers like Oswalt and Peavy.

Whether you have a drafts or auctions, the same strategies will apply, but in auction you will have more choice as to who you want.  The main difference between the two is that an auction, you can bid on any player you want. There are two main strategies for auctions: Stars and Scrubs and value. In Stars and Scrubs, you go for a lot of top-3 round talent and then fill out the rest of your roster with $1 fill in players. The problem with this strategy is if one of your stars is injured, you are essentially done. With value, you wait to spend your money until what would be the fourth to fifth round, then splurge on six to seven solid players. Last year, I went the value route and ended up with Dan Haren, Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, Brandon Phillips, Aramis Ramirez, and Derrek Lee. This way, you don’t get killed by injuries, and you have lots of potential.

Position-by-position breakdown:

Catcher:

Catcher is generally going to be a weak spot of your team, so unless you grab Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann early, you can wait on a catcher, but not expect much production. Most teams do not have players worth owning, and picking between the rest of the catchers will be like a lottery. Russell Martin and Geovanny Soto were All-Stars just two years ago, and they will be going late in drafts – worth a late flyer. Assuming you don’t land one of the top-three, you probably won’t be comfortable with who you have and may be best served with catcher by committee.

Player I Absolutely Love: Joe Mauer
This pick is just too easy. Mr. MVP will play in a full year, unlike last year when he still lead the league in batting. Scouts used to call Matt Wieters “Mauer with power”, but now that phrase won’t worse, since Mauer hit 28 home runs and 96 RBIs. Open-aired Target Field likely won’t help his production as much as the Metrodome did, but he is hitting third in a very good lineup and is clearly the best catcher in the game, although Victor Martinez is an enticing pick.

Best Value: Bengie Molina
As long as you are hitting cleanup in your lineup, you are going to produce. Molina will be hitting 4th, behind Aaron Rowand, Freddy Sanchez, and Pablo Sandoval, so he may not have too many people on base before him, but he will easily end up with 80 RBIs. He has no speed, and certainly won’t help you in batting average, but for $1 he is certainly worth it.

Avoid: Jorge Posada
Posada won’t be playing every day because of his age and ailing knees, but he will get over-drafted because he plays for the Yankees and plays half his game in their stadium. He’ll likely hit about 20 home runs, but sooner or later he will miss a ton of time with injuries, and there isn’t a DH spot to give him a day off in the field, now that the Yanks have Nick Johnson.

Sleeper: Miguel Montero
While ESPN.com has Montero as their fifth best catcher, most people don’t know this young Diamondback and his potential. While playing in less then 80% of the season, Montero hit 16 home runs and held onto a .294 batting average. He is still progressing as a hitter, and Chase Field is one of the best ballparks to hit in.

First Base:

The first and second rounds of the draft are going to be full of powerful first basemen, and it would be smart to grab one of them early, especially if you have a corner infield spot, too. First base generally has your player with the most power, and this is a position you can sacrifice average for other categories. There are six players who will hit high 30s or even into the 40s for home runs, but there is plenty of depth at first – there are 18 fantasy starters who are first base eligible.

Player I Absolutley Love: Ryan Howard
The Phillies’ slugger has perhaps the most power in the entire league. The knock on him has always been his batting average, but you can take a hit at first, especially considering the fact that he averages 50 homers and 143 RBIs in his four full seasons. In addition to that, his batting average is rising; he hit .278 for the year and .302 in the second half. He is coming cheaper then Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira, but is as productive, if not more productive the all of them.

Best Value: Justin Morneau
Morneau, the former MVP, is coming at half the price of Pujols ($17 to $35) and is almost as productive. Even when he missed 33 games (and he is NOT injury prone) he still hit 30 homers and 100 RBIs on the dot. His batting average is high when he is healthy, and he hits right behind Joe Mauer.

Avoid: Playing third base eligible players at first
You can’t go wrong with any of the first eighteen first basemen (although I don’t really like Billy Butler), but the biggest mistake you can make would be to play a third base eligible player at first. Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Reynolds are top-10 first base eligible players, but their value rockets up when you play them at third because of the scarcity of elite players at the hot corner.

Sleeper: Lance Berkman
Berkman has slid all the way down to 16th, although he is right in front of Derrek Lee and Carlos Peña who could also have great years. The Big Puma hits around 30 home runs for his career and has never hit under 24 home runs. He is well-rounded, too, he hits .300 every season and will steal a handful of bags, too. Berkman is going into his contract year and hits in a great hitters’ ballpark, so expect big things out of Berkman, even though he is on the decline.

Second Base:

Second base used to be the black hole of fantasy baseball – you either poured all of your money to get the best guy, or you took a low caliber player. Now, Chase Utley leads the way going in the top five generally, and there is plenty of quality everywhere you look.

Player I Absolutely Love: Brandon Phillips
I have always been a fan of Brandon Phillips; he hits for power, a solid average, and will steal you 25 bases. For a second baseman, 30 homers and 25 steals is just incredible, and throw in the fact that Phillips is only going in fourth round or for about $18, he is a straight up steal. Phillips hits fourth in a potent young lineup, and is hitting at the Great American Launching Pad.

Best Value: Aaron Hill
Hill was clearly the biggest surprise of last season, he didn’t have a starting job the year before and was coming off a concussion. Hill hit a whopping 36 homers, 108 RBI, and .286. No one outside of Toronto thinks Hill will have close to the season he did before, but there hardly no chance he won’t come close. Without another injury, he is next to guaranteed to get you 25 homers and 80 RBIs, fantastic for just a seventh round pick or $14 dollars.

Avoid: Ian Kinsler
Kinsler is going in the late second and early third round, but his collective stats are not that impressive. His average is very inconsistent, and he hit only .253 last year. That’s just .253, folks. Like I’ve said before, you can’t win your league in the first three rounds, but you can lose it. Kinsler is a big gamble; he never hit more then 20 home runs or 75 steals before last year. Kinsler will be a fine hitter, but not where you have to take him.

Sleeper: Jose Lopez
Lopez is in a small market, and plays a quiet game, so he rarely gets much coverage. But this man can hit. Lopez’ power has been progressing over the last few seasons, and he is now hitting in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup. With Ichiro and Chone Figgins hitting in front of him, he will have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs. Lopez will get third base eligibility a few weeks into the year, so he will add versatility to your rosters, and you can grab him very late in the draft.

Third Base:

Player I Absolutely Love: Evan Longoria
Longoria is just a natural hitter. In a year and three quarters, he has hit 60 home runs and 198 RBI. Longoria’s average is improving quickly as he catches onto opposing pitchers, and his power is still getting better. He won’t give you the steals that David Wright or Chone Figgins will, but he is going to blossom into a 40-120 hitter sooner or later, and I like my chances for this season.

Best Value: Aramis Ramirez
One of the most consistent hitters of the decade, Aramis Ramirez, is also one of the more overlooked ones. Going after unproven, but high upside players like Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds, and Pablo Sandoval, Ramirez hits .300, 30 homers, and 100+ RBI. Perhaps he is only going lower because he had a wrist injury last year, but he has never had a history on injuries.

Avoid: David Wright and Chone Figgins

If you learn anything from this, don't draft any Mets

If you learn anything from this, don't draft any Mets

Chone Figgins is essentially a speed only player, someone you take towards the end of the draft just for one category. This year, there is an excess amount of speed, especially in the outfield, so Figgins is one of the more undraftable players considering his position. You are better off going with Gordon Beckham or Miguel Tejada who will at least provide some power and average. As for Wright, his strikeout numbers are rising, he is on a terrible team, and his ballpark is a death trap for hitters. Wright only hit 10 home runs, and you have to pick him in the first round.

Sleeper: Adrian Beltre
Beltre is 30 years old, but he has never hit in a hitter’s ballpark until now that he has reached the batter’s paradise more commonly known as Fenway Park. Beltre consistently hits 25 home runs and should get at least a 5 homer boost now that he is hitting more often in Fenway. Beltre’s batting average won’t kill you and he’ll also give you ten or so steals. The best part about him, though, is that you can grab him for just $9 or in the 12th round.

Shortstop:

Shortstop has become more of a speed position with the development of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, and is now centered around young, high-upside talent. High draft picks and international free agents have turned into very good fantasy prospects; just take a look at Troy Tulowitzki, Elvis Andrus, and Alexei Ramirez. The former big three of Reyes, Ramirez, and Jimmy Rollins is now welcoming it’s latest member, Tulo, while Reyes may be leaving top-tier status.

Player I Absolutely Love: Hanley Ramirez
It is easy to say that the number two overall pick will the player I like most, but HanRam can really do it all. The man led the NL in batting, had a career high in RBIs (104) and had a down year with 24 homers and 27 steals! He is incredibly gifted and is only getting better. His strikeout rate is going down and there is nothing you can knock about this young man’s game.

Best Value: Stephen Drew
One year, Stephen Drew will hit 25 home runs and hit .300, and you will be wishing you were the smart guy who drafted him. Maybe this is his year, and you want to spend $10 on Drew and he will come through. He took a step back last year, but he has the potential to be a top-notch fantasy player, and he is in the right ballpark to do so.

Avoid: New York shortstops
Jose Reyes wasn’t fully recovered from his hamstring issue when news broke that he had a thyroid problem and he will miss even more time. Reyes is one of those risky early rounders who you don’t want to ruin your draft by selecting him. He is basically speed only and speed can be easily found in the outfield, so look else where. Derek Jeter could easily be the best shortstop in baseball, but his statistics are wildly uninspiring for the third-best at his position. He had a giant boost last year in power, average, and speed, and at his age of 35, you can’t expect him to continue that.

Sleeper: Orlando Cabrera
O-Cab is not going to be a player you want to depend on to start the whole year, but he will make a great backup, middle infielder, or blind jab pick. He gets you .280-10-75 with 15 steals and 80 runs, but he is also hitting in Cincinnati this year. If you really want to wait on a shortstop in a deep league, Cabrera could be your man.

Outfield:

The outfield is much shallower then usual, but there is plenty of speed. Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano have fallen off the face of the fantasy baseball map, and the top three outfielders on many lists (Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton) are all 26 or younger. Then next generation of outfielders is here.

Player I Absolutely Love: Grady Sizemore
Yes, Grady is going to be the man this year. He will be moved down from the leadoff spot, reducing his pressure and raising his RBI total. The man has power, speed, and just needs to be a better hitter for average to become one of the top outfielders in the game. Plenty of people are down on him and he will be a risk, but he is worth it all, to me.

Best Value: Carlos Lee and Adam Dunn
You won’t find an outfielder more consistent the Adam Dunn over the past seven season. He hit 46 bombs in 2004, then exactly 40 homers for the next five years, then 38 last season. His power isn’t quite dwindling, he is still going to carry your team’s power for a cheap price, and best of all, his average is improving. Carlos Lee is a surefire .300-30-100 every season, and has finally fallen in price to a measly 5th round pick. For that type of production, Lee is the must have of the draft.

Avoid: Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford
It’s hard for me to say this as they are two of my favorite players, but you need to avoid Ellsbury and Crawford. They are both top two round selections and are pure speed players. You will be passing up the Prince Fielders and Ryan Howards of the world to get these speed demons, but with Juan Pierre and Rajai Davis going late, there is no need to spend your early picks on those players.

Sleeper: Kyle Blanks and Dexter Fowler
As rookies, Blanks and Fowler were very impressive. Blanks only played in 54 games, but his a homer every 14.8 at-bats. He has elite power and will hit behind Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley in the Padres lineup. He has mammoth power potential and is going to get much better as the year goes on. Dexter Fowler reminds me a lot of a more powerful, slightly slower Willy Taveras. Folwer has the potential to become an elite speed player while still adding offensive production. Both hitters will be very late fliers, but will both be All-Stars at some point in their career.

Starting Pitcher:

There is an abnormally large amount of starting pitching available this year, especially late. Starting pitching affect four of the five pitching categories (Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks, but not Saves) so they are much more important then relief pitchers. My suggestion is to get one top-notch starter then go for value.

Player I Absolutely Love: Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay was already one of the top three starters in the league when he was pitching in the ultra-competitive AL East. Now, he is in the inferior National League and gets to play the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals very often. He will absolutely dominate, geting well over 20 wins, an ERA in the high 2s, and 200 strikeouts. This man is a workhorse and have his best year to date. King Felix is by no means a slouch, though. He strikes out more hitters and has a much nicer ballpark to pitch in and one of the best defense in the league. Hernandez will be the best pitcher in the AL, while Halladay will be tops in the NL.

Best Value: Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy
The pair of aces have been very consistent throughout the decade, and had slight slip-ups last year. Peavy was injured and then shipped off the Chicago while Oswalt had his worst ERA of his career and first season without double-digit wins. Even though he is in a much worse pitcher’s park, Peavy had great success in his three starts in Chicago: 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA. Its fairly safe to assume that both can bounce back, and both are top-5 talents when on top of their games.

Avoid: Javier Vazquez
Vazquez had a fantastic year last season in Atlanta, but that is in the past. Vazquez has been dominant in the NL, but as his former manager Ozzie Guillen points out, he is not an AL pitcher. His ERA hovered around the high 4s in the AL with a 52-56 record. With more pressure and the spotlight on him, I don’t see Vazquez reliving his career year now that he has returned to the Big Apple.

Sleeper: Ben Sheets
When healthy (and that is certainly going to be the key) Ben Sheets is as dominant of a pitcher as anyone. He missed the entire 2009 season but really wowed scouts in his throwing session, enough so that Oakland offered him a $10 million deal. His fastball is back in the mid-90s and his curveball leaves even the greatest hitters buckling. For a 22nd round pick, there is no way you can go wrong with Sheets, there is no risk.

Closer:

Personally, I really don’t like closers because they are pretty much the same player who pitches one inning every other game. They will only help you in saves, so there’s not much point to picking Mariano Rivera first when you can get similar players later. That being said, don’t go with Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Jason Frasor as your closers.

Player I Absolutely Love: Mariano Rivera
Before his elbow injury, the most consistent fantasy closer was Joe Nathan. He is now going to miss most of, if not all of the season. Now, Rivera is easily the most dependable and best overall closer to have. Rivera will go high in the draft, and rightfully so. His ERA is going to be in the low 1s and he will be in the top five saves leaders.

Best Value: Brian Fuentes
Fuentes is one of the worst closers in the game. He exerts no confidence on the mound, he tosses the ball to the plate, and is in no way shape or form dominant. At the same time, he is the Angels’ closer and he will get 50 save opportunities. Francisco Rodriguez saved a major league record 62 games, then went to the Mets and saved only 35. Whoever the Angels’ closer is (and it may be Fernando Rodney by the end of the year) is a must have, especially since his shortcomings won’t highly affect your totals.

Avoid: Heath Bell
A career set-up man, Heath Bell was surprisingly dominant in his first year at closer, but he has many questions for this season. Can he continue his dominance to that level? Doubtful. Will he be a closer at the end of the year? There’s a great chance he will be dealt to a team with a proven closer. Will the Padres give him enough save opportunities to be worth his price tag? Nope.

Sleeper: Neftali Feliz
Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson don’t form the most formidable closer duo in Texas, and if one is to struggle, Feliz would be the next in line for the ninth inning. He has an electric fastball that reaches 100 and great breaking pitches. Feliz could go forward as a starter, but his success in the ‘pen should convince Texas to keep him in place as the closer-in-waiting.

My last hint for this upcoming fantasy baseball season is to be very active. You can win your leagues by who you pick up, not just if you draft right. Plenty of rookies will get the call, and don’t feel discouraged to drop an aging player for potential, even if it doesn’t pan out. If you have a hunch, go for a trade or pickup because just waiting won’t cut it. When Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, and Desmond Jennings hit the majors, pick them up as soon as possible.

I am no professional at fantasy baseball, but I know what I’m doing and can manage a team to the top three. You may have gotten to the end and asked why you ever read all the way down, so I congratulate you and wish you well. If you have any questions, I highly recommend listening to and reading Matthew Berry, ESPN fantasy expert, and also feel free to ask a question or comment.

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