So far this year, I am on pace for an NFL record of 8.5-7.5, which won’t be good enough to meet my preseason goal of having a record good enough to make the playoffs. That’s not even saying that my Lock of the Week record is 3-3, which is 1.5 games behind the Patriots, which was my preseason goal. Well, Week 8 is here, and this is where my picks, against the spread may I add, will turn around. Home teams in CAPS.
Texans (-3.5) over BILLS
The Bills are overrated this week after beating the Panthers by forcing/receiving four turnovers but had about one third the yardage and one fourth as many first downs as Carolina. Steve Slaton and the Texans will run all over the Bills’ last ranked run defense. Matt Schaub and Houston’s passing attack will also be to much to contain and the Texans will win by way more than a field goal. This is my Lock of the Week.
BEARS (-13.5) over Browns
The Browns are awful and the Bears are okay. But we can finally see Jay Cutler and Matt Forte explode in the same game. One question for the Bears, though: Why isn’t Devin Hester returning kicks? Isn’t that an obvious choice?
Seahawks (+9.5) over Cowboys
The Cowboys have been riding on the Miles Austin train the past two games, but here is where the train comes to a halt. Tony Romo and Roy Williams are extremely overrated and are going to be stopped by Ken Lucas, Deon Grant, and the Seahawks secondary. Look for a big game from Julius Jones, as the ‘Boys have the 16th best run D. If they are really going to give me nearly a TD and field goal, I’ll take it and run.
LIONS (-3.5) over Rams
I sincerely apologize to anybody who has to watch this game. It is a shame either team has to win a game. The thing that gives Detroit the edge is that they have more offensive weapons and an extra week to prepare.
COLTS (-12.5) over 49ers
It’s hard to pick the Colts to win if the other team is getting nearly two touchdonws, especially if the other team is as good as the Niners. But Peyton Manning is at the top of his game and the Colts’ defense has greatly improved. San Fran will be turning to former number one pick Alex Smith, and Michael Crabtree is in only his second game. I definately like the Colts to win the game, but I’m not completely sold on a 13 point win.
Dolphins (+3.5) over JETS
Okay, the Dolphins won at home last time by four and won mostly on their 152 rushing yards. With Jet’s Goliath nose tackle Kris Jenkins out for the year, their run defense will be even worse. Look for a ton of Wildcat and a Fins win in East Rutherford.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Broncos
I hat to keep picking against the Broncos, but I have to do it again. The Ravens are my second favorite team to win it all, after the Pats of course. They have a scary good defense and a great young quarterback and runningback combo. The Broncos are also a very, very good team that I don’t want to take anything away from, but you gotta like the Ravens at home by more than a field goal.
EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants
Maybe the Saints and Cardinals are very good, or maybe the Giants without Kenny Phillips and Aaron Ross aren’t that good. They were torched by the great passing offenses of New Orleans and Arizona, and the Eagles with McNabb, DeSean Jackson, and now Jeremy Maclin could be as good as either of them. The pick up of Will Witherspoon will really help their defense, and I like the Eagles by around a TD.
Jaguars (+2.5) over TITANS
Again, after a while, you have to realize when a team is awful. That would be the Titans at this point. Soon, they’ll have to turn to Vince Young since Kerry Collins has not been the Collins of 2008. Mike Sims-Walker, Torry Holt, Marcedes Lewis, and MoJo Drew will tear up the Titans’ lousy pass defense. Gimme the Jags and the points.
CHARGERS (-16.5) over Raiders
The Raiders are an abysmal franchise, and I have no idea why I picked them last week. The Chargers have a way better tea than the Jets, who beat down the Black Hole 38-0 last week. The Jets were winning by so much, Mark Sanchez got bored and ate a hot dog. No joke. I expect Philip Rivers to be chomping down on a steak by the start of the third quarter.
Vikings (+3.5) over PACKERS
When these two teams faved off in the Metrodome, the Vikings won by a touchdown. That guy Brett Favre is now more in synch with All-Day Adrian Peterson, Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe. I see no reason why Brett shouldn’t win in his return to the Frozen Tundra which is Lambeau Field. Just too many weapons on offense and too good of a defense to lose this game.
Panthers (+9.5) over CARDINALS
As bad as the Panthers have been and as good as the Cardinals have looked, there is no way either of these teams should have a nine plus point spread. Jake Dehlomme will have to throw because of their first ranked run D and fourth-to-last pass D. This is the game that swung Jake’s mojo, he hasn’t been the same since that dreadful January day, so look for Jake Delhomme to hand the Cardinals to Cajun fire, or the ball a few times.
Falcons (+9.5) over SAINTS
The Saints deserve to be one of the top two teams in the league, they have been great in every single way. But can they really win by double digits versus a very solid division rival? The Falcons have great players across the board, and I would be surprised if both of these teams found their way deep into the playoffs. This Monday Night game, could actually be a NFC Championship preview.
Last Week: 8-5
Lock of the Week: 3-3