We’re almost at the midpoint of the season, and things are really starting to shake out. Now the Bills, Niners, and Bengals aren’t really this good, and the Eagles and Cowboys aren’t really this bad. Somewhere hidden in this article is my Super Bowl pick, and next week I’ll dive into why I made these picks. So without further ado, here are my Week 7 NFL picks with home teams in CAPS.
Falcons (+3.5) over LIONS
I’ve been on the Lions’ bandgwagon for most of the season, but I’m ready to hop off for a moment. The Falcons are 22-3 when Michael Turner rushes for 100 or more yards, and the Lions are 31st-ranked with 5.2 rushing yards per carry. That’s good for 129.5 yards per game. Roddy White is doubtful, so you know Atlanta will pound Turner until the cows come home.
BUCCANEERS (+0.5) over Bears
Last week, the Bucs did what I thought they could never do: beat the Saints without LeGarrette Blount and Gerald McCoy. Well this week, Blount is out again and McCoy is questionable, but the Bears are no Saints. I’ve always been a big Josh Freeman fan, and I bet he really breaks out against the Bears 8th-worst ranked pass defense.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Seahawks
I always hate to give points when Colt McCoy is my quarterback. That’s okay, though, when Charlie Whitehurst is the other quarterback. If Tarvaris Jackson is your starting quarterback, you should do anything in your power to get another quarterback. Maybe the quarterback they’re trying to replace him with is Andrew Luck.
Broncos (+3.5) over DOLPHINS
How can the Dolphins be possibly favored? They’re winless and they’re starting Matt Moore. Shouldn’t that be enough for you to take TImmy Tebow? Sure, many people don’t like him, and he just lost his #1 receiver, but this is the Dolphins we’re talking about!
Texans (+3.5) over TITANS
I refuse to buy into the Titans until Chris Johnson stops looking like Rudi Johnson. And Andre Johnson or not, I still love the Texans offense. Jacoby Jones is a sleeper this week because he’ll get many of the looks Andre Johnson would have gotten, plus he’s got all the characteristics of a modern, successful receiver: tall, fast, and big. He’s 6’2″ 212 with a 4.4 40.
Chargers (-1.5) over JETS
The Jets have always talked the talk, but this year, they just aren’t walking the walk. 28th in rush defense. 23rd in passing. 31st in rushing. Rex Ryan keeps making the mistake of calling out the opposition, and Philip Rivers is not guy to mess with. Also, look for a healthy Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews to go HAM.
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Redskins
Joke time! What’s worse than starting Rex Grossman at quarterback? John Beck! Aaaaahahahaha… Well sadly, this is no joke for the ‘Skins. Yes, Beck has only played five seasons in the NFL after putting up massive numbers at BYU. Well that’s because he was 25 as a senior. He’s 30 years old! There’s no upside in John Buck! He’s just bad.
Chiefs (+3.5) over RAIDERS
Which is crazier: Trading two first-rounders for Carson Palmer or benching any quarterback for Kyle Boller? I’m gonna be honest, I though Boller was out of the league three or four years ago. The Chiefs are bad, but Kyle Boller is just terrible.
Steelers (-3.5) over CARDINALS
I just don’t get this line. The Steelers are, in my opinion, one of the four best teams in the AFC, while the Cards are probably one of the four worst teams int he league. The Kevin Kolb experiment has failed, Larry Fitzgerald isn’t escaping double- and triple-coverage, and Tim Hightower is taking off after excaping the Arizona heat. Oh, yeah, and the Steelers are the Steelers. Lock this one up, I’ve got Lance in my Pants for this game.
COWBOYS (-12.5) over Rams
No Sam Bradford, no game. DeMarco Murray fits in perfectly with the Cowboys’ aggressive screen game, and he’s just as talented as Felix Jones. And Romo really could use an ego boost.
Packers (-8.5) over VIKINGS
It’s been time to bench Donovan McNabb for a while, but I’d probably give Christian Ponder another week on the oak before tossing him to the wolves because B.J. Raji may very well eat him alive. Literally.
SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts
This game has the second highest over-under of the week at 49. How many of those are supposed to be scored by the Saints? 35? 42?
Ravens (-7.5) over JAGUARS
The Jags better get really pumped up if they want to stay even remotely close in this game. The Ravens are really good, as you’ll read in the next line, and the Jags are worse than Tony La Russa’s managing strategy.
Oh, yeah, and my Super Bowl pick is Ravens over Eagles. More details to come next week, when we reach the midpoint of the season.
Last Week: 7-6
Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 4-2