You know what? At least I went 10-5 last week. Week 8 NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.
Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:
EAGLES (-5.5) over Giants
It finally took them playing a team with a quarterback who completed 23-50 passes for the Giants to win a game. Did you know Peyton Hillis was the leading rusher last Monday night with 36 yards on 18 carries?
Bills (+12) over SAINTS
I’m so on board this Thad Lewis train. Dude is completing 64.6% of his passes and, oh yeah, did I mention he went to Duke?
RAIDERS (+2.5) over Steelers
These teams used to be really good. A decade ago. Your Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week.
Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS
In case you haven’t noticed, the Bengals don’t score a lot of points. They’re mostly winning games by 3 and 4 points, and the Jets weirdly play up to their competition this year.
Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:
PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins
God what an awful call against the Patriots on that field goal at the end of last game. It’s like Boston sports teams never catch a break.
Cowboys (+3) over LIONS
I hate media narratives (other than the Jaguars being the worst thing ever), so I just want to point out that Tony Romo is not “unclutch.” In the fourth quarter when he is either up or down by 7, he’s completing 63.9% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt with a 2.58 TD/INT ratio and a 101.7 passer rating. Compare that to his normal 65.0% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2.26 TD/INT ratio, and 94.1 passer rating. And I know your response: “Yeah, but still.” And it’s a quality response.
Redskins (+12.5) over BRONCOS
The Broncos haven’t covered their spread in the past three weeks and are looking particularly vulerable on (pass) defense. Considering the Redskins are 7th in passing, 4th in rushing, and 10th in scoring, this seems like the perfect opportunity for a backdoor cover on a nearly two-touchdown spread at the very least.
Packers (-9) over VIKINGS
Maybe Leslie Frazier thinks he can combine Moshian Freeselder into one semi-competent quarterback? He knows he has Adrian Peterson, the greatest running back alive, on his team, right?
KFC Double Down Games
Panthers (-6) over BUCCANEERS
Biases aside, I think the Panthers are actually a very good team. I’m going to ride out their artificially low spreads that put too much weight on their disappointing record until they inevitably blow a primetime game to a bad team. Wait a minute…
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Browns
Jason Campbell is about to become the 20th quarterback to start for the Browns since 1999. That’s so sad that Jeff Garcia reached out to them saying he’s ready to play. I’m not even making that up. Dude is 43 years old.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Rams
On my Monday radio show with Jackson Martin (shameless plug) I couldn’t remember which former Jets backup is now starting for the Rams. Greg McElroy? Vinny Testaverde? David Garrard? Chad Pennington? Nope. Kellen Clemens.
Niners (-16.5) over JAGUARS
Here is a running list of things better than the Jaguars:
1. A-Rod’s ability to not act like a bridesmaid
2. This kid’s ability to smile for a picture
3. Jonathan Villar’s bunting ability
4. Melky Cabrera’s throwing arm
5. Songs about problems that hot girls have
6. Gana Diop’s free throw shooting
7. Gana Diop’s put-back skills
8. Gana Diop’s car dealership sales pitch
9. Gana Diop raps
10. Gana Diop’s blow-on-Dwight-Howard-and-maybe-he-won’t-embarrass-me defense in the playoffs
Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week:
Falcons (+2.5) over CARDINALS
This makes me so nervous. Why aren’t the Falcons favored? Am I missing something? I keep missing my locks of the week even though they seem so obvious to me. What’s going on? Am I crazy? Isn’t Carson Palmer the quarterback of this team? Haven’t they lost their past two games by 12 points apiece? Isn’t Matt Ryan 3rd in the league in passing? Ahhhhhh.
Overall record: 50-54-3
Last week: 10-5
Apple Total: -280
Apple Total Last Week: -15