As you may have seen, last week I went with every favorite after some analysis that showed that favorites had won 53% of their games. Unfortunately, favorites won only 38% of their games last week, although I did make 10 apples, mostly thanks to nailing just my 3rd Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week of the year.
With that in mind, I’ll be going back to my normal way of picking games: running multiple game simulations, analyzing several advanced metrics, reading the comments sections from Bleacher Report, and then picking a name out of a hat.
Week 10 NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.
Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:
Eagles (+1.5) over PACKERS
Brett Favre Vince Young? Tebow. Tebow Tebow Tebow. Favre Tebow Young? Jimmy Clausen.
GIANTS (-7) over Raiders
What’s weird about the Raiders/Eagles game last week is that the Raiders out-gained Philly 560-542. The 49-20 score made it looks worse than it was. Still, Oakland can’t stop the pass, and that’s the one thing New York can do. Plus playing at 10 a.m. West Coast time is a recipe for disaster.
RAVENS (+1.5) over Bengals
I can’t see Baltimore dropping three straight to division rivals, especially with Geno Atkins out for the year and the Ravens getting points at home. Then again, I’m 2-6 picking Ravens games this year. I should really stop picking Ravens games.
BEARS (+2.5) over Lions
Ryan Riess won the World Series of Poker last night in a Calvin Johnson jersey, so it looks like it’s all downhill from here for people in Lions jersey this year.
Zac Stacy is the best college running back I’ve ever seen. Of course, I’ve only seen Vanderbilt games.
Rams (+9.5) over COLTS
Despite their 6-2 record, the Colts peripherals don’t look fantastic. They’re actually being out-gained 367.3 yard to 340.9 yards, and have only two victories that would cover this 9.5 point spread. I like the Colts, but not this much.
Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:
TITANS (-12) over Jaguars
Here is a running list of things better than the Jaguars:
1. Florida fans’ situational awareness
2. Little kid’s evasiveness skills
3. James Young’s ability to defend his own basket
4. Evan Longoria’s innovative new swing
5. David Wright’s innovative new swing
6. Prince Fielder’s ability to avoid inside pitches
7. Prince Fielders’ spacial recognition skills of where third base is
8. Prince Fielder’s ability to not resemble a bowling ball
9. Prince Fielder’s aggressiveness on defense
10. Prince Fielder’s ability to not trip over himself, kick his helmet, and then nearly remove second base
STEELERS (-3) over Bills
As mediocre as the Steelers have been, there’s just no way I’m taking Jeff Tuel with a spread less than a touchdown.
Seahawks (-8.5) over FALCONS
Seattle hasn’t have blowout wins this year except when they play a pretty bad team (Jacksonville and Arizona) or the Niners. The Falcons just might be a pretty bad team.
Cowboys (+7) over SAINTS
The Cowboys are one of my favorite teams to bet on because the lines get skewed from of the universal hatred of Tony Romo. Sure, the Saints will probably win this, but Romo’s had a very strong season and is fully capable of a backdoor cover. That’s actually not a joke.
KFC Double Down Games
Broncos (-7) over CHARGERS
Two questions from last week’s Chargers game. If Danny Woodhead was tackled millimeters from the end zone, why was the ball placed at the one-foot yard line after consulting replay? Also, why didn’t the Chargers run it four times on 1st and goal from a foot out? (Answer: Norv Turner)
Dolphins (-3) over BUCCANEERS
I think the Florida teams are trying to out-Florida each other. The Bucs have a MRSA outbreak and an insane coach who ran off their starting quarterback, the Dolphins have a noted crazy man doing all sorts of hazing and racially insensitive activities with teammates throwing blame everywhere, and the Jaguars are the Jaguars.
Redskins (-2) over VIKINGS
I don’t have any jokes for this game, so here it is: your Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week!
Panthers (+6) over NINERS
You may not know a single player other than Luke Kuechly on the Panthers defense, but they’ve got potentially the best front 7 in the NFL. And that’s after they traded Jon Beason. Oh, and Cam Newton is Colin Kaepernick but good.
Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week:
Texans (+2.5) over CARDINALS
These locks of the week make me so nervous. I’d take Texans (-2.5), so why does this feel wrong? Houston is the best team in terms of pass defense, so Arizona will have to lean on Andre Ellington and Rashard Mendenhall. And I swear Arizona isn’t good. Really.
Overall record: 61-69-3
Last week: 5-8
Apple Total: -310
Apple Total Last Week: 10
The Knuckle Blog 