We’re almost at the midpoint of the season, and things are really starting to shake out. Now the Bills, Niners, and Bengals aren’t really this good, and the Eagles and Cowboys aren’t really this bad. Somewhere hidden in this article is my Super Bowl pick, and next week I’ll dive into why I made these picks. So without further ado, here are my Week 7 NFL picks with home teams in CAPS.

Falcons (+3.5) over LIONS
I’ve been on the Lions’ bandgwagon for most of the season, but I’m ready to hop off for a moment. The Falcons are 22-3 when Michael Turner rushes for 100 or more yards, and the Lions are 31st-ranked with 5.2 rushing yards per carry. That’s good for 129.5 yards per game. Roddy White is doubtful, so you know Atlanta will pound Turner until the cows come home.

BUCCANEERS (+0.5) over Bears
Last week, the Bucs did what I thought they could never do: beat the Saints without LeGarrette Blount and Gerald McCoy. Well this week, Blount is out again and McCoy is questionable, but the Bears are no Saints. I’ve always been a big Josh Freeman fan, and I bet he really breaks out against the Bears 8th-worst ranked pass defense.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Seahawks
I always hate to give points when Colt McCoy is my quarterback. That’s okay, though, when Charlie Whitehurst is the other quarterback. If Tarvaris Jackson is your starting quarterback, you should do anything in your power to get another quarterback. Maybe the quarterback they’re trying to replace him with is Andrew Luck.

The Dolphins sold an extra 10,000 tickets when Timmy Tebow was named the starter. It's gonna be like a little league game for Timmy, just with tens of thousands of his parents in the crowd.

Broncos (+3.5) over DOLPHINS
How can the Dolphins be possibly favored? They’re winless and they’re starting Matt Moore. Shouldn’t that be enough for you to take TImmy Tebow? Sure, many people don’t like him, and he just lost his #1 receiver, but this is the Dolphins we’re talking about!

Texans (+3.5) over TITANS
I refuse to buy into the Titans until Chris Johnson stops looking like Rudi Johnson. And Andre Johnson or not, I still love the Texans offense. Jacoby Jones is a sleeper this week because he’ll get many of the looks Andre Johnson would have gotten, plus he’s got all the characteristics of a modern, successful receiver: tall, fast, and big. He’s 6’2″ 212 with a 4.4 40.

Chargers (-1.5) over JETS
The Jets have always talked the talk, but this year, they just aren’t walking the walk. 28th in rush defense. 23rd in passing. 31st in rushing. Rex Ryan keeps making the mistake of calling out the opposition, and Philip Rivers is not guy to mess with. Also, look for a healthy Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews to go HAM.

PANTHERS (-2.5) over Redskins
Joke time! What’s worse than starting Rex Grossman at quarterback? John Beck! Aaaaahahahaha… Well sadly, this is no joke for the ‘Skins. Yes, Beck has only played five seasons in the NFL after putting up massive numbers at BYU. Well that’s because he was 25 as a senior. He’s 30 years old! There’s no upside in John Buck! He’s just bad.

Chiefs (+3.5) over RAIDERS
Which is crazier: Trading two first-rounders for Carson Palmer or benching any quarterback for Kyle Boller? I’m gonna be honest, I though Boller was out of the league three or four years ago. The Chiefs are bad, but Kyle Boller is just terrible.

Steelers (-3.5) over CARDINALS
I just don’t get this line. The Steelers are, in my opinion, one of the four best teams in the AFC, while the Cards are probably one of the four worst teams int he league. The Kevin Kolb experiment has failed, Larry Fitzgerald isn’t escaping double- and triple-coverage, and Tim Hightower is taking off after excaping the Arizona heat. Oh, yeah, and the Steelers are the Steelers. Lock this one up, I’ve got Lance in my Pants for this game.

COWBOYS (-12.5) over Rams
No Sam Bradford, no game. DeMarco Murray fits in perfectly with the Cowboys’ aggressive screen game, and he’s just as talented as Felix Jones. And Romo really could use an ego boost.

Packers (-8.5) over VIKINGS
It’s been time to bench Donovan McNabb for a while, but I’d probably give Christian Ponder another week on the oak before tossing him to the wolves because B.J. Raji may very well eat him alive. Literally.

SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts
This game has the second highest over-under of the week at 49. How many of those are supposed to be scored by the Saints? 35? 42?

Ravens (-7.5) over JAGUARS
The Jags better get really pumped up if they want to stay even remotely close in this game. The Ravens are really good, as you’ll read in the next line, and the Jags are worse than Tony La Russa’s managing strategy.

Oh, yeah, and my Super Bowl pick is Ravens over Eagles. More details to come next week, when we reach the midpoint of the season.

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 43-47

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 4-2

Without a doubt, October is the best sports month of the year. The baseball playoffs are in fully swing, the NFL is well underway, and the NBA is getting ready to start–er… college basketball is right around the corner. The temperature is turning noticeably crisper, and outside every grocery store is an immense herd of wild pumpkins, waiting to be captured and transfigured into jack-o-lanterns. Really, just an unruly amount of pumpkins.

Nearly every October, though, intriguing, innovative thoughts creep into the minds of baseball fans. Should there be an extra wild card team? Maybe league-wide interleague record should determine  home field advantage instead of an exhibition. It’s good thing the Cubs aren’t in the playoffs, because a pack of pumpkins has be spotted near the ivy walls.

But in the end, all is well for the baseball playoffs. If a 2nd wild card team was added, the last-second drama of Day 162 would have been all for naught. The way the playoffs are currently assembled is the best for the league, and if Major League Baseball has been this slow to add the blatantly necessary instant replay to umpiring crew’s repetoire, it’s highly unlikely they’ll make massive changes to the playoffs without serious deliberation.

But like all playoff systems, there’s an incurable flaw: oftentimes, the champion is not the best team, but rather the hottest team. This doesn’t just apply to baseball, it fits in with nearly every sport. March Madness is the pinnacle of this problem–the entire tournaments is based on who can catch fire and win 6 games in a row. In 2011, was Duke the best team in the nation? No! Was Butler even the second best team? Of course not. Both teams just got hot at the right time and rode their way to the National Champnionship Game.

Even last year in the NFL, the same issue showed again. On the last day of the regular season, Green Bay squeaked their way into the playoffs on the back of the best player in the game. With momentum on their side, despite being banged up on both sides of the ball, they won three big games and made their way to the Super Bowl. Sound familiar, St. Louis fans?

Ask anyone who watched football last year, and they could tell you the Patriots were simply the most dominant team in the regular season. They put up 77 more points than any other team, turned the ball over a league-low 10 times, and had the first-ever unanimous league MVP. But after going 14-2 in remarkable fashion, they were out-played one day in January by a shockingly competent Mark Sanchez and hyped up Jets defense.

For the Packers, despite losing Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett, and several other key lynchpins, they starting clicking on all cylinders. Aaron Rodgers couldn’t–and still, for the most part, can’t–be stopped, and he was able to pair his championship belt with a shiny football-shaped trophy: The Lombardi Trophy. Now were the Packers the best team last season? It’s possible. Then again, they were one loss away from heading home after Week 17, contemplating if Mike McCarthey even deserved his job back. But were they the hottest team? Without a doubt.

Before Spring Training, I was having a tough time deciding who my favorite for the NL Central would be. I loved the Reds’ young talent, and they were, after all, the 2010 champs. The Brewers, who I eventually went with, had a ton of new acquisitions with some serious pop in the middle of their order. And then there was the Cardinals. The boring old Cardinals. They had two ace pitchers, two absolute mashers, and a bunch of replacement-level players as far as I was concerned. But when Adam Wainwright was deemed out for the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery, I completely ruled them out of the playoffs.

Are the Cardinals really this good, or just very hot?

But thanks to a short-sighted deal, a largely unnoticed Braves’ collapse, and a bit of restraint on Tony La Russa’s part to not over-manage too many games, the Cardinals found themselves in post-season play. Although over-matched on paper by the Phillies, the hitters heated up just at the right time. Even more amazingly, what had been the team’s soft-spot all year (the bullpen) suddenly became the strongest part of the team. The rag-tag group of pitchers that finished 14th in the NL with a 3.73 ERA suddenly became a group of super-subs with a playoff ERA of  2.49, including a miniscule 1.88 ERA in the NLCS.

In the end, the hottest team doesn’t necessarily always win. The ’07 Rockies won 21 of 22 games before being swept out of the World Series. But in that case, they were clearly out-classed by the Red Sox, and their 8 days between games couldn’t have helped. But the point is that “hot streaks” only help so far–until the talent really becomes unbalanced.

To be honest, the talent is not very balanced in this series. The Rangers have the best offense in the playoffs, an ace pitcher, and a very deep bullpen. Hell, their seventh hitter set a record with six home runs and 13 RBI in one series. After Pujols, the Rangers have six of the next seven best hitters in the series (Hamilton, Cruz, Beltre, Napoli, Young and Kinsler are all better than Lance Berkman, the Cards’ 3rd best hitter). St. Louis has had a nice breakout series for Allen Craig and David Freese, but they’re just around the level of Mitch Moreland, who can only crack Texas’ starting lineup half the games.

The key to the series, like most postseason series will be the starting pitching. The Cardinals are going with Chris Carpenter followed by Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Edwin Jackson, while the Rangers have penciled in C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison. When it comes to pitching, the Rangers are no Brewers, who I liked just a bit more than the Cards’ pitching, but they’ll hold their own in this series.

We all know how well Chris Carpenter has cleaned up in the regular season, but in the post-season he’s been much more human. He owns a solid-but-not-great ERA of 3.76, but averages just 5 2/3 innings per start. Historically, he only averages going  just over six innings per playoff start. C.J. Wilson, on the other hand, is getting hot at the right time. Since August, his ERA is down to 2.00 and his WHIP down to 1.08. Not only that, but he’s tougher on righties than he is on lefties, and the majority of the Cardinals’ big bats–Pujols, Holliday, Freese, and Molina–all swing from the right side.

Like the Tigers in the ALCS, the Cardinals will run into a lot of trouble if they can’t win with their ace. Excluding starts made by Justin Verlander, the Tigers were just treading above .500. Consequently, when they lost his first start of the series, they ended up losing the series in six games. For the Cardinals, they don’t have a Doug Fister, they don’t have a Max Scherzer. Garcia and Jackson have been wildly inconsistent all year, while Lohse has just been consistently bad. Holland, Lewis, and Harrison are no Big Three, but at least they can go six somewhat-strong innings.

Both the Rangers and Cardinals have had record setting playoffs. This time, though, this isn’t a good thing. Neither teams’ starters averaged even five innings per outing. Not only is that inauspicious because teams would like to see their best pitchers go deep into games, it also means that their bullpens will be extremely taxed if they have to go at least four innings every game for a month. And in the end, the Rangers have a deeper, stronger ‘pen, so they get one last advantage here.

Before I give out my predictions, I think both teams deserve huge props. Back in January, I thought aloud that neither the Rangers nor the Giants may end up going to the 2011 playoffs. Well, I was half-right at the time. But the incorrect half was the Rangers going to back-to-back World Series, and possibly winning for the first time ever. But I saw the error in my thoughts, and changed back to the Rangers taking the AL West crown. I just didn’t see them being so dominant offensively. And I couldn’t see them heading back to the Fall Classic. But like the Cardinals, they proved me wrong.

Ultimately it comes down to this: the pitching is very close, but the hitting is not. I think Chris Carpenter notches a Game 1 win at home, but the Rangers take the rest in a five-game romp.

Rangers over Cardinals in 5.

So Monday Night Football crushed the ALDS. The Buccaneers and the Colts drew 10.84 million viewers while the Yankees and Tigers drew 6.05 million viewers. That looks pretty awful at first, considering there were two boring, small-market teams going up against the most popular team in all of baseball. But since this is the biggest game of the football week on the World’s Leader in Sports going up against Game 3 on TBS, this isn’t such bad news for Major League Baseball.

Even though New York, Philly, and Boston are gone from the playoffs, it’s hard to say that these playoffs haven’t been a success. There were 3 game 5s decided by one run after the crazy Game 162, plus a 4 game series with the final game decided by 1 run. These games are close and they’re exciting, which is all you can really ask for. Milwaukee, St. Louis, Detroit, and Arlington may not be the biggest markets and brightest cities, but they’ll give us 12 to 21 more great games.

As with last week, I’m going to break down the baseball series followed by the NFL picks. Baseball comes first–but feel free to read both sections. They don’t bite. And yes, I did make my baseball picks before Game 1, don’t worry.

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

These teams are more evenly matched on offense than you’d think at first. At the surface, the Tigers appear to only have two good hitters–Miggy Cabrera and Victor Martinez–but Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta have been great. Both teams ended the year with a .340 OBP, good for fourth in the league. Yes, Delmon Young will be out for the season, but Detroit’s 3-hitter has been pretty bad this year. Don’t let Jim Leyland’s strange batting order ideas (Austin Jackson and his .317 OBP is leading off) confuse you, Delmon barely reached base 3 out of 10 times with below average power and defense. The Rangers may have the big names and a bit more power, but these offenses aren’t so far apart.

The key to this series, though, has to be Games 1 and 5. Outside of Justin Verlander, the Tigers’ rotation has been solid at best. Doug Fister has been historically crushed against the Rangers (4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP) while Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer have a combined ERA of 4.58. Their combined FIP of 4.10 doesn’t look much better. So if they can’t win one, if not both starts by Verlander over the good-but-not-great C.J. Wilson, they’re looking at having to win 4 games in five to six games with sub-par pitchers.

Despite being in a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark and losing their ace Cliff Lee, the Rangers had strikingly good pitching this season. C.J. Wilson has completely been transformed from a solid closer to a number 1-number 2 type starter. Even young Derek Holland and Matt Harrison have really stepped up this year. But what really separates Texas pitching-wise is their bullpen. Jose Valverde, although perfect in save chances, has been wildly inconsistent. Furthermore, their big acquisition last off-season, Joaquin Benoit, gave up more than twice as many runs as he did before he got himself a $15 million contract. Texas took an already solid bullpen featuring fireballing closer Neftali Feliz and added three quality arms at the deadline: Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, and Mike Gonzalez.

Texas is just a little bit deeper, a little bit stronger overall than Detroit. You can never overestimate the value of Justin Verlander when he play’s, but he’s only going to be in 18 innings of this series at most. The middle of the Rangers’ order will crush the back end of Detroit’s rotation. This series will still go the distance since they are close offensively, but my pick is…

Rangers in 7

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

To be frank, I didn’t see the Cardinals even making the playoffs. They lost their best pitcher for the year, they’ve got little depth offensively, and they’ve got one of the thinnest bullpens in the league. But they beat out the Phillies, and that’s no small order.

Brian Wilson is crazy smart. Nyjer Morgan is just crazy crazy.

With these two NL Central teams, you’re looking at two different strengths. The Cardinals finished the season third in the league with a .341 OBP, 25 points ahead of Milwaukee, but the Brewers finished fourth in the league with a .164 ISO, thirteen points ahead of St. Louis. While I normally favor getting on base ahead of power, I like Milwaukee’s offense better. Pitchers can work around the heart of the Cardinals’ order because David Freese, Rafa Furcal, and Jon Jay are such easy outs compared to Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman. The Brewers have so many more ways to hurt you offensively, especially when they go into Beast Mode.

Both the Cards and Brew Crew have a great pitcher at the top of their staff, but Milwaukee actually has 3 of them. As a staff, Milwaukee’s 3.78 ERA is minutely better than St. Louis’ 3.81 ERA, but the 3.25 to 3.44 xFIP advantage held by Milwaukee’s 1-3 starters is really what pushes them over the top. It doesn’t really matter which order Zack Grenke, Yovani Gallardo, and Shaun Marcum pitches in because each can be so dominant.

Though the numbers don’t exactly show it, the Brewers are clearly better both at hitting and pitching. They’ve even got a better bullpen (4 former closers) and a less volatile coach. And if you like to believe in team unity helping out, there’s nothing cooler right now than the Brewers’ Beast Mode. I’m going….

Brewers in 6

Without further ado, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS
Rumor has it that the Bills are looking to add Mike Williams and Steve Smith to their already exciting offense of Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, and David Nelson. But honestly, I don’t think the Bills are anywhere as good as they’ve been playing. And I think this is the game the Iggles turn their season around.

Bengals (+2.5) over JAGUARS
For the next decade, I’d rather have Blaine Gabbert than Andy Dalton as my backup quarterback. But for this game, I don’t hate Dalton’s teammates as much.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Titans
Yes, James Harrison is out, but the Steelers are more than equipped to come over this injury. Lawrence Timmons will slide to weak side linebacker an Larry Foote will be re-inserted into the starting lineup. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger isn’t Matt Hasselbeck.

Does this guy look more like a quarterback or a heavy metal rocker?

COLTS (-2.5) over Chiefs
I think I’m still emotionally scarred from watching Curtis Painter last week. Seriously, I think he completely messed with my image of what a quarterback is. But he did play competently, which is more than I can say about Matt Cassel recently.

TEXANS (-6.5) over Raiders
The Raiders will be absolutely inspired by the death of Al Davis, but there’s only so much better you can make Jason Campbell and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Cardinals (+2.5) over VIKINGS
What a bad game. The only thing holding the Vikings back from benching Donovan McNabb is their lack of a promising young player. Yeah, I’m calling you out, Christian “12th overall” Ponder.

Saints (-5.5) over PANTHERS
The Panthers are always the hardest game to pick. They’re clearly worse than the other team, especially with Jon Beason and Thomas Davis done for the year. But Cam Newton is so good at picking up garbage time points, just ask betters who took the Packers and Bears against the Panthers. But the Saints can win by 6. I think.

GIANTS (-9.5) over Seahawks
This is a big line, but it’s also an NFC West team on the road. I’m almost certain now that Seattle acquired Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson just to get Andrew Luck. Why else would they bring in these guys?

Buccaneers (+1.5) over NINERS
How are the Buccaneers underdogs to an NFC West team? They’re 3-1! I can understand some people questioning the Buccos if they were going up against the Saints or Falcons, but the Niners? C’mon son.

Chargers (-4.5) over BRONCOS
Philip Rivers is really good. Kyle Orton, not so much. I’ll take this game as an easy win. I’m whipping the Lance out of my Pants here for my Lock o’ the Week.

PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Jets
The Jets can’t run, they can’t stop the run, and they can’t pass. Not only that, but Bill Belichick won’t take it easy at one moment in this game. This is a near layup game.

Packers (-5.5) over FALCONS
I maintain that the Packers are slightly overrated and the Falcons slightly underrated, but being overrated isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As the great Bomani Jones said, “being overrated is underrated. I’d like people to think I’m better than I actually am.” That is absolutely true; who wouldn’t want to be paid more than they’re worth, thought of higher than they should be. But back to football, both teams cannot stop the pass, and I like Aaron Rodgers much more than I do Matt Ryan.

LIONS (-5.5) over Bears
Jay Cutler is 20-10 when he throws 30 or less passes. Consequently, he’s 16-26 when he throws more than 30 passes. Will Matt Forte be able to get going against Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and maybe Nick Fairly? Probably not in Detroit.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 31-33

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 3-1

Nine days ago was a huge night of baseball. To say the least, it was the craziest, most intense, and, in the end, most heartbreaking night of baseball I’ve ever survived. It was Game 162 for Major League Baseball and, for one quarter of a percent of the world, the eve of Rosh Hashanah. The Sox were ahead, Papelbon blew it, Dan Johnson hit a home run, and blah blah blah. You know the story. But on Kol Nidre, the eve of Yom Kippur, it is only fitting to re-visit that fateful day and the season that wasn’t for the Red Sox.

Back in April, I went out on a limb at picked the Red Sox to win the World Series. Their injury-riddled team just added one of the best first-basemen in the game along with a dynamic multi-time All-Star outfielder. They had Lester, Beckett, Papelbon, and a handful of young rising stars. What wasn’t to love? I even went as far as to say “This Red Sox team may not just be another great team; it could be an all-time great one. Their lineup is studded with All-Stars and their rotation is stocked full of quality arms.”

Now, I don’t regret taking the Sox this season. Looking back, I still would have taken them because of their overwhelming talent, along with the fact that no other team especially stood out to me. But what happened in September could never have been predicted.

All of this brings us to September 28th. Interestingly enough, as this day is starting, news is coming out about MLB potentially adding another wild card, which would have rendered this day useless. But in any case, the Red Sox were tossing Lester versus Baltimore, against whom he owned a 14-0 record with a 2.33 ERA in 17 starts. All they needed to do was win this one game, or hope the Yankees pull out a win against Tampa, and they’d live to survive another day.

Unfortunately for me, I wasn’t going to be able to watch the games. Thanks to 8:30 services at temple, I was nearly baseball blocked on only the biggest night of the year. But thanks to modern technology–specifically ESPN Mobile alerts–I was partially connected to the games.

Buzz Buzz Teixeira hit a homer? Yeah! Buzz Buzz Pedroia RBI single? C’mon! Buzz Buzz Texeira hit a GRAND SLAM? Leggo!

Never before have I been so angered by a Yankee double play, so pleased by Phil Hughes strikeout. And never before had I so feverishly checked my phone on the chance that the Yankees were working the count against David Price to force an early exit. But then it came time for services, and my phone the steady flow of baseball updates were silenced.

Fast forward two hours and as the final chorus of All the World sounded–click–my phone was turned on. After a mass of texts, I see that the Yankees are up an insurmountable 7 runs in the seventh inning while the Red Sox are up one in a rain delay. Great. The Rays are just 9 outs from their demise while Boston has the greatest closer in the game in to pitch–Mother Nature.

This face just says it all.

But we all know what happens next: New York’s C-Team bullpen gives up a pair homers, including a pinch-hit, 2-out, 2-strike blast to a man hitting .100 on the year, hitless since April. Papelbon has a signature wild outing and ends up giving up a bloop hit that pops out of Carl Crawford’s–of all people–glove. One Evan Longoria home run later, it was all over.

Suddenly, shockingly, unexpectedly, the Red Sox had just blown a 9-game wild card lead in 25 days. There was plenty of blame to go around: John Lackey and Carl Crawford for being far from competent at an exorbitant price, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for being unable to come up with any sort of quality start over the last two weeks, and the team in general for being 2-18 to close the season when scoring less than 9 runs. But the blame game doesn’t help much, despite what the media might have you think.

Clearly, change is on the way in Boston. Tito Francona has already been shown the door, and Theo Epstein may be on his way out, too. David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Marco Scutaro, and J.D. Drew are all free agents, and staying still is clearly not an option. Lackey, Crawford, Dice-K, and Bobby Jenks are owed another combined $184 million, which will be harder to move than the last Big Mac at a vegan’s covention.

So with changes abound, let’s take a look at the four offensive free agents with their odds of returning to Fenway.

David Ortiz
Big Papi can take a bad rap because he was (potentially unjustly) tagged as a juicer while having 3 straight horribly slow starts. But if you really look at his numbers, he’s still getting on base at a high clip and mashing the ball. He has a huge presence in the locker room that just cannot be quantified. Unfortunately, he’s only getting older, and Kevin Youkilis won’t be able to stay third for much longer–and Adrian Gonzalez isn’t moving anywhere. Not only that, but Papi wants a two-year contract with a player option. To be blunt: that’s not happening. I firmly believe that Papi has at least one more good season left in him, so I’d offer him a one-year deal with an option or let him walk.
Chance of return: 75%

Jason Varitek
Towards the end of the season, it got pretty sad to watch the Captain. He can’t get around on fastballs anymore and only threw out 2 baserunners all year. What he has been able to do for young pitchers is phenominal, but in the end, he can’t produce on the field anymore. There’s no reason to bring him back as a player, especially with sweet-swinging Ryan Lavarnway on the up and up. Maybe he’ll become a coach.
Chance of return: 5%

Marco Scutaro:
Scutaro hasn’t been great, but he’s been far from terrible. He plays above-average defense and makes contact at a remarkable 94.7%–second in the league only to Juan Pierre by two percentage points. The original plan was to have Scutaro around for two years until Jose Iglesias was ready to take over for good, but the two years are up and Igleasias is not ready to start every day yet. Jed Lowrie has been good, but he always seems to be hurt, and Mike Aviles is no longer cut out to play every day, either. For a modest $6 million, bringing back Scutaro is probably the right move.
Chance of return: 60%

J.D. Drew:
I don’t think anyone will miss J.D. Drew. For $70 million, he hit a key grand slam in the 2007 ALCS and quietly plugged away without smiling once. Not only would I be utterly shocked if he returned to the Red Sox, but I’d be stunned if he got another job offer. J.D.’s likely headed for retirement.
Chance of return: Less than 0%

Unfortunately, with a solid class of players leaving, there’s a thin crop of free agents on the market. The big fish, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, will not be headed to Boston, so the Red Sox will have to weed through a litany of 2nd- and 3rd-tier options. They’ll be on the search for a corner outfielder–Josh Willingham or Carlos Beltran perhaps–but the biggest addition to their offense should be Carl Crawford.

I’m not sure exactly who I saw manning left field this season, but it’s certainly not the spark plug of a player I’ve come to love over the past decade. Crawford was quite literally a replacement-level player last year with a 0.2 WAR, a far cry from his mean 5 WAR from 2004 to 2010. At just 30 years old, Crawford is fully redeemable once he is acclimated to the pressure cooker that is Boston sports.

The pitching, on the other hand, is an entirely different animal. The top three starters (Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz) look great, but then things take a huge nosedive. With at least one rotation spot and a couple bullpen roles to fill, Boston has three main pitching free agents: Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, and Erik Bedard.

Jonathan Papelbon
Pap hasn’t been the most consistent closer. But he’s certainly one of the most dominant. He’s not most accurate. But he’s certainly the most intense. After the late collapse in Baltimore, Papelbon has become a popular fall-guy with Francona, Crawford, and new pitching coach Curt Young, but it’s unfair to pin the season on him. In the end, he’s a high-end reliever who will come at a high price–$15 million in all likelihood. But whether you’re talking about Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Goose Gossage, or whichever closer comes to mind (I see you, Joe Borowski), there’s no way they’re work $15 million. With 15 big stacks, you can pay an entire bullpen of cheap, young arms plus a utility infielder or two. It’s been an… err… interesting seven years, but I think it’s in Boston’s best interest to not pursue a closer for this much and just collect their draft picks and move on.
Chance of return: 30%

Tim Wakefield
You can never have enough starting pitching, but at some point, enough is enough once you turn forty-five. I think that the nine-game quest to win game #200 was the final chapter of Wake’s Boston career. Maybe he’ll catch on somewhere else, but the gauge is near empty on this warrior.
Chance of return: 10%

Erik Bedard
I still don’t have a problem with the last-second deal this trade deadline, especially considering the upcoming 40-man roster crunch approaching. But I’m not so certain Bedard is a good fit in Boston. When healthy, he can be a very nice pitcher, but he can’t stay on the mound, and he lacks any form of confidence. If he runs out of options elsewhere (doubtful), we might see Bedard return to Boston, but it’s looking doubtful at the moment.
Chance of return: 25%

There are plenty of solid options for 4th/5th starters (Jon Garland, Rich Harden, and Edwin Jackson just to name a few), but I think overpaying for C.J. Wilson would be a bad idea. Boston doesn’t need a rotation overhaul, just tweaks and a better doctor. That and a taker for Lackey.

He may be a contract albatross and a 6.41 ERA pitcher, but there may be one taker, which is all you need. The Chicago Cubs are in such dire straights, that they may consider swapping Lackey for Carlos Zambrano. Clearly, both teams have had enough of their dynamic starters. Big Z’s time has ran out in Chi-Town, but they can’t move his contract. Lackey can’t return to Boston, but nobody wants him for $45 million. This trade would really help out both teams, assuming Theo and/or Tito doesn’t make the move to Wrigley.

The Red Sox fell apart, yes, but there are some positives to take away from the year. For one, they’ve found a solid right fielder for next year: Josh Reddick. Josh Beckett is also back to being Josh Beckett. But that’s really about it. This team lost it in the end because they had no better options than Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller, Lackey, and Wakefield with the division on the line.

Next season, there will be new faces across the board, but we’re months away to seeing what that team will look like. For now, it’s time for Theo, Ben Cherington, and the rest of the Red Sox’s brass to take a long hard look at what went wrong and what needs to change.

There’s no doubting his ability. There’s no doubt he’ll be great when he hits The Show. But my only question about Bryce Harper is whether he’ll let the money get to his head.

As he continues his tour through Single-A baseball, Bryce Harper came through Kannapolis, North Carolina for a Memorial Day series. It isn’t too often that a top-flight prospect comes through the Charlotte area, so I made the 45-minute drive down 1-85 to Fieldcrest Cannon Stadium and got to catch 14-innings of baseball for just $8, just another reason to love minor league baseball.

At the 1:05 start, the game seems like just another Minor League matchup. A modest crowd of 2,334 fans maneuver their way into their scorching seats on a 94 degree afternoon with a glove, bottle of water, and sunscreen in hand.

You may question his ethic, but there's no doubting Bryce Harper's out-of-this-world skills

But this isn’t an ordinary Single-A game. That much is clear when a 6’3″ 18-year-old steps out of the dugout and immediately elicits a parade of calls from fans of all ages. “Bryce!” “Mr. Harper!” “Hey!” There are even a few younger fans who didn’t quite realize the magnitude of this player’s appearance who call out “Number 34!”

Without batting an eye, Harper heads off to right field to run, throw, and play two-ball with his teammates. The man knows he’s a star already. I just hope he doesn’t let his persona consume him.

Young professional athletes are almost always hard-headed, but what happens if you give them $9.9 million before they can legally vote? The only thing you can hope for is that they continue their work ethic that got them that far. Luckily, he seems to be keeping his tough mindset, saying “You have to take it like you’re a catcher out there … I’m just going to go out there and do what I do every day. Just go out there and win.”

What I saw in Harper from ten rows back was unlike other player I’ve seen. He’s smooth in the field. He walks with swagger. At the flick of his bat he sends the ball rocketing into the outfield grass. But sometimes among this sleekness, it doesn’t always appear that he is putting out his best effort.

There are times when he chases first-pitch curves in the dirt, times when he hacks at 3-0 fastballs, times when he jogged out a poorly hit ball.

There’s 9.9 million reasons why Bryce Harper is the next big thing in Major League Baseball; you can look at any of the thousands of articles written about his unheard of power and tremendous arm strength. But we must remember that he’s still a kid with a ways to go before the majors. And let’s make sure he can handle the spotlight.

Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing. First used by UCLA football head coach Henry Russell Sanders in 1950, these words have become among the most quoted in sports. In any job you undertake, your worth correlates directly with how much bacon you bring home, and in sports, it all comes down to the Ws. If you can’t lead your team to victory, how good of a player are you, really?

Baseball is a game full of statistics, and there is one stat that shows a player’s value more so than any other: Wins Above Replacement. Through a series of advanced metrics evaluating offense and defense, players are tracked to see how many wins they add to their team above a replacement level player. And one player in particular stands out if you analyze the numbers closely—Yuniesky Betancourt.

He is the proud owner the lowest WAR in the league at a -1.2 clip, making him the worst statistical player in the league. But even beyond the numbers, his ineptitude and inability to lead his team to victory makes it abundantly clear that Yuniesky Betacourt is the most abominable player in all of Major League Baseball.

It goes without saying that anyone who makes the Major Leagues and stays there for six seasons is clearly talented. Hell, anyone who makes it to the top level of any occupation deserves of a medal and a pat on the back. But someone has to be the worst at his job, and that man is unequivocally Mr. Betancourt.

You might've missed the ball on the tag, Yuni...

Over the last two seasons, he cost his team 1.2 wins. The average major leaguer would have a WAR of around 3 to 4 over the same period. If you need to sign someone up to lose more than a game for your team, just call up my 102-year old great-grandmother Hermine, and she won’t cost you nearly Yuniesky’s $10 million left on his contract.

Over his six-year career, his total WAR is 2.6. That’s less than a half win added every year. You could trot out Mike Elwood, Special Olympian silver medalist, and add a half win to your team.

Baseball analyst Keith Law has his own breakdown of Yuni’s game: “It’s not just that Yuni is bad. It’s that he plays like he’s conserving calories.” The man doesn’t hit for power. He’s impatient, he can’t field competently, and he doesn’t even care enough to work himself into game shape. With that kind of dedication to his craft, could you even expect marginal returns?

Over the last two years, he barely got a hit once every four trips to the plate—hardly a world-beating rate—and reached base just one thousandth of a percentage point above dead last in the league. If there’s something productive Yuniesky Betancourt can do in the field, I must have mistakenly been watching cricket this whole time.

There’s something to be said for players who just win. In football, it’s nice to have a quarterback like Matt Schaub who puts up gaudy yardage numbers, but it’s even better to have a player like Ben Roethlisberger who will scratch and claw his way to seize victory from the jaws of defeat. Yuni does neither. Somehow, he miraculously finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Not surprisingly, Betancourt’s Royals have finished dead last in their division each of the past two seasons with records of 65-97 and 67-95, good for the fourth and fifth worst records in the league for 2009 and 2010.

The top players in any sport can put their team on their back and just will themselves to victory. Look at LeBron James. He was able to lead the Cavaliers to a 61-21 record in 2009, but this season with the superstar having taken his talents to South Beach, the Cavs lost 26 straight games en route to an 11-48 start. No doubt, LeBron is a powerful asset to any team because he turned an abysmal franchise into a championship contender.

Yuniesky, on the other hand, barely adds any talent and doesn’t have the skills or the drive to make his team into a winner. Betancourt is just good enough to con two teams into trading for him, but truly remains bad enough to be the worst player in the majors.

Blaring from the speakers at Auburn football games, you’ll hear DJ Khaled’s platinum single All I Do Is Win—a song that evokes a sense of swagger, pride, and more than anything else, victory. Because winning is a culture in sports, if you can’t win games, you don’t belong among the best. And when you get to the point of costing your team wins, you are condemned to being the single worst player in your sport.

As infamous Raiders’ owner Al Davis put it, “Just win, baby, win.”

Here it is at long last, the 2011 Baseball Preview. This is the fifth annual preview I’ve come out with, and I really hope you enjoy perusing all 75 pages of baseball gold. Don’t hesitate to comment, share the link, get ready for some baseball.

When they tell you that you’ll never get over, just tell them they’re number one. You’re a champion.

Coming out of high school, everyone has a ton of pressure on their shoulders. Are you ready to live on your own? Is this college really the right fit for you? But what if you’re drafted top-10 in the MLB Draft? There’s always going to be pressure, but in the words of rapper Busta Rhymes, Don’t Believe ‘Em.

The son of a former major leaguer, Delino DeShields Jr. has always been a true athlete. Starting in the fifth grade, he played football, and by the time his junior year rolled around, he was getting recruited to play college football. But that wasn’t his future. Yes, head coaches across the South were drooling over his speed and athleticism, but DeShields’ future was brightest where his father made a living: on the diamond.

Astros fans will be looking forward to seeing this guy playing in Houston pretty soon

It wasn’t actually until about two years ago that Delino started to make baseball a priority. Football was his number one sport, but baseball was always there in the spring. A running back in the fall, his speed translated immediately to baseball–and the scouts noticed. So much so, that the Astros snatched him up in the top 10 of the draft.

Look, even if a (hater) try to pop me
I’m so blessed – do anything that you could do to stop me
Now I’m climbin’ up the ladder and I’m jumpin’ at the top
You might wanna call me Rocky

Don’t let his 5’9″ stature fool you, Delino DeShields is one tough guy. He boasts a 4.2 40 yard dash time and can bench an impressive 300 lbs along with squat 565, but those are just numbers. Delino can flat out play.

DeShields’ biggest asset going forward is clearly his speed. No matter if he plays at second or shifts to center field, it will allow him to be a fantastic defender, even if he doesn’t have the greatest arm strength. His speed will come even more to his advantage at the plate, where he’s able to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

Months before the June 2010 draft, there was plenty of speculation as to where he would fall in the draft; most experts had DeShields as a mid- to late-first rounder. But the closer and closer June came, the higher and higher his stock rose. Speed and athleticism aren’t necessarily essential for a major leaguer, but any time a club can find both skills at an elite level in an 17-year old, it’s hard to pass up.

Any situation where you might get fed up
Gotta stay focused, homie keep your head up
It don’t really matter what the next one is doin
Homie gotta handle your business and then you better step up

Growing up around a baseball culture with his dad, a 13-year veteran, athletics was always prevalent in Lino’s life from a young age. Delino Sr. always had advice for his son, but one piece of advice stuck with Delino Jr:

“Even though I never really started taking baseball seriously until two years ago,” recounts DeShields, “he always just told me to focus and not let outside distractions affect my performance on the field. Always keep your head up.”

Athleticism translates well between sports, but baseball can be a game of details more than any other sport. It takes time to learn the proper mechanics and gameplay of fielding, and there’s no feat more difficult in sports than hitting a 90+ mph fastball. Since he is still relatively new to being a full-time ballplayer, focus will be absolutely key for Lino’s success. It’s more than clear that he has elite talents, but the more he can focus on his craft to become a complete player, the sooner he can work his way up through the Astros’ system to Houston.

Live to the fullest for the dream you’re pursuin’
Ain’t nothin’ in the work gon’ really stop what you’re doin’
Go hard no matter what they be sayin’
(Brother) don’t quit cause you know we gotta keep it movin’

After being selected eighth overall, the inevitable question rose about DeShields’ future: sign with the ‘Stros or play at LSU? Obviously, the choice was a difficult one, but LSU wouldn’t let Delino play both baseball and football. Additionally, LSU only offered him an 85% scholarship since they were wary of his strong interest in playing professional baseball. In the end, the promise of a future at Houston’s Minute Maid Field and $2.15 million beckoned.

“(The decision) was hard, but who can turn down that kind of money coming out of high school?” says DeShields. “The way I look at it, I’ve been blessed with this talent and my dream is to play professional baseball–not college baseball. Even though it would be fun, why turn down the opportunity and spend three years of my life playing college sports when I probably won’t graduate because I would enter the draft my junior. And why not start early and be ahead of the game?”

Take a look and see yourself in me
Cause it’s all about we
Me and you securin’ a win together
So we could be the best that we could ever be

Delino Sr. and Delino Jr.

One likely reason DeShields went so high in the draft was his pedigree–his dad was the 12th pick in the 1987 MLB draft and stole 463 bases for five teams. The similarities don’t end there though, so its easy to see why the two draw such good comparisons. They both play second base and some outfield, but the bulk of their games revolve around elite speed.

Delino Jr. is a good four inches shorter than his dad, but he’s a lot stronger than his dad ever was. From what most scouts have seen, the younger DeShields will likely have a similar power ceiling to his dad, but he should be a much more potent base stealer. Delino, though, is just 18 years old and has much room to grow and much more to learn.

DeShields will undoubtedly get plenty more advice over the years from his father as he gets closer and closer to making the show. But even more valuable than that, Delino will always have a mentor and a supporter, someone who he can look up to.

Stay up on your grind, be the first one to set it
People try to shut me down, I won’t let it
I’m so stubborn for the success
You know my motto – don’t stop, get it, get it!

There’s a reason Delino DeShields Jr. has made it this far in his young baseball career. Through skill and determination, he rose to the top of many draft boards as a prep player, and now look where he is. In the future, there’s sure to be people who will doubt Delino because of his size, lack of power, or some other nit-picky detail, but this kid is going somewhere special.

Whether his career is as fruitful as his father’s or as exciting as another close comp in Eric Young Jr., you’ll be sure to hear his name again soon. Hey, maybe he’ll fulfill the promise Baseball America bestowed upon him when they dubbed him Top 12 Year Old back in 2005 over the great Bryce Harper.

But in the end, Delino DeShields Jr. is an extraordinarily talented player with a bright future ahead.

When they tell you that you’ll never get over, just tell them they’re number one. You’re a champion.

With pitchers and catchers ready to report in less than three weeks, it’s time to look at the future for many teams, especially those who don’t have much to look forward to this year. I’m looking at you, Royals.

Young talent is exciting in all sports, especially in baseball. Twenty-nine of my top fifty this season were number one picks, but drafting high isn’t the only way to collect elite talent. Look no further than Domonic Brown. Brown, the overall prospect in 2011, was the 607th pick in the 2006 draft and only received a $350K signing bonus. Many more gems can be found across the international market and in the later rounds of the draft.

For those teams with little to look forward to this year, help is on the way — at least for most of them. The Royals have six high-quality prospects, four of which are on in the top twenty-seven. The Rays have another four in the Top 40. Even the Nationals have some talent!

This season will be very exciting for big market teams like Boston, Philadelphia, and New York, but every team has some reason for hope. Unless of course you’re a Pirates fan, but then you have Steelers. Maybe not so much either if you’re an Indians fans, but at least they have the Cava– I mean at least there’s nice weath– I mean at least you’re not living in Arkansas.

Without further ado, here are my Top 50 MLB prospects. My rankings are based on film I’ve seen, production, and scouting reports from trusted sources. Each player has a short scouting report straight out of my 2011 MLB Preview, which is due to be released in late March. If you missed last year’s issue, here is a medium resolution version of it. If you want the high-resolution version, comment on the bottom, and I’ll send it to you. Enjoy.

1. Bryce Harper		OF	Nationals
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 245	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Unheard of power with plus plus athleticism, discipline, arm strength, and overall bat. Future superstar.

2. Mike Trout		OF	Angels
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 217	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Star-in-the-making. Athletic, very fast, strong, great defender with solid arm strength. Great on-base skills.

3. Mike Moustakas		3B	Royals
Height: 5’11”	Weight: 230	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Elite power hitter and great arm. Smooth swing, slow, but incredibly strong. Solid fielder, should stick at third.

4. Aroldis Chapman		LHP	Reds
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 185	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
Absolutely incredible stuff, fantastic fastball, slider. Stamina is in question, could be ace or shutdown closer.

5. Jeremy Hellickson		RHP	Rays
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 185	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Effortless release with shocking velocity. Three plus off-speed pitches and great intangibles.

Notes: At the top, Harper has the biggest upside, but Trout will hit the show much sooner. Moustakas is the one most likely to be a bust, but he also has incredible upside. It’ll be interesting to see how Chapman and Hellickson will be used this upcoming season; Cincy will want to determine whether they want to stretch out Chapman into a starter or make him a closer, while Tampa will want to limit Hellickson’s innings to prevent future injury. All of the top five players will be a star in this league.

6. Jesus Montero		C	Yankees
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 225	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
One of the best power hitting prospects. Can hit well for average, too. Defense is defective, will settle at DH.

7. Domonic Brown		OF	Phillies
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 200	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Plus in all five categories with much more power to fill out. Athletic, great defender, plus speed.

8. Dustin Ackley		2B	Mariners
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 185	Age: 22	B/T: L/R
Polished hitter with great discipline, speed, and a fantastic bat. Excellent pure hitter, versatile in the field.

9. Kyle Drabek		RHP	Blue Jays
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 190	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Ace-type stuff, hard fastball and a knockout curve. Great command poise, and toughness.

10. Eric Hosmer		1B	Royals
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 215	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Quick wrists, great feel for the strike zone. Plus power, fantastic total bat. Good defender.

Notes: Montero and Ackley could both win starting jobs in Spring Training depending on how well they can play against major league competition. Montero’s value will largely be based on where he plays; he can hit his way into any lineup, but his value will be doubled if he can catch every day. Brown won’t have the power of Jayson Werth, but he will be a mainstay in Philly’s lineup for a long time.

11. Desmond Jennings		OF	Rays
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 200	Age: 24	B/T: R/R
Very athletic and can absolutely fly. Great fielder, highly disciplined, hits well for average, okay power.

12. Julio Teheran		RHP	Braves
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 150	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Electric stuff, specifically blazing fastball. Easy motion with high velocity, ace ceiling.

13. Manny Machado		SS	Orioles
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 185	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
True 5-tool potential, a future superstar. Very athletic with real no holes to speak of.

14. Casey Kelly		RHP	Padres
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 195	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Great command, velocity with plus curve and nice changeup. Athletic with great poise and delivery.

15. Jameson Taillon		RHP	Pirates
Height: 6’6”	Weight: 225	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Quick delivery, great poise and control. Explosive fastball, hard curve, very young with room to grow.

16. Martin Perez		LHP	Rangers
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 178	Age: 19	B/T: L/L
Big deceptive lefty with great changeup, curve. Very crafty, high ceiling. Struggled at upper levels.

17. Jacob Turner		RHP	Tigers
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 210	Age: 19	B/T: R/R
Big frame with above average fastball, plus curve and changeup. Slightly injury-prone.

18. Michael Pineda		RHP	Mariners
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 245	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Plus fastball and slider, Number 2 starter potential. Swing-and-miss off-speed pitches.

19. Aaron Hicks		OF	Twins
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 185	Age: 21	B/T: S/R
5-tool potential with great plate discipline, more power to come. Very athletic with scary fast speed.

20. Mike Montgomery		LHP	Royals
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 180	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Tall, lean frame with great potential as a starter. Plus fastball and changeup. Dominates his competition.

Notes: A lot of these players are high upside/high risk players (Taillon, Turner, and Hicks), but I feel that each and every one of them can make several All-Star games. Not all will make it big, but they all have fantastic tools and great potential. It’s getting about time for Desmond Jennings to step up after spending five years in the minors, and he should be presented a great opportunity with Carl Crawford’s departure. Martin Perez and Aaron Hicks are due for bounceback seasons after average years.

21. Zach Britton		LHP	Orioles
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 195	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Plus fastball and slider along with great command. Elite potential as a starter, especially valuable as a lefty.

22. Brett Lawrie		2B	Blue Jays
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 213	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
High-quality bat with great power. Goes all-out, great athleticism, bat speed. May end up playing third or at a corner outfield position.

23. Shelby Miller		RHP	Cardinals
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 190	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Aggressive strikeout pitcher with a great fastball. Frontline starter in the making, hasn’t scratched his ceiling yet.

24. Tyler Matzek		LHP	Rockies
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 230	Age: 20	B/T: L/L
Full arsenal of solid pitches, struggled with command. High ceiling, still young with room to improve.

25. Brandon Belt		1B	Giants
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 210	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
Great, smooth swing generating nice contact and elite power potential. Nice glove, but not much speed.

26. Matt Moore		LHP	Rays
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 205	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Outstanding strikeout pitcher with plus fastball and curveball. Control can be his only issue.

27. Wil Myers		C	Royals
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 190	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Great overall bat, plus plate discipline. Unclear where he’ll play in the majors, he may have to be moved to right field.

28. Kyle Gibson		RHP	Twins
Height: 6’6”	Weight: 210	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Bulldog type innings-eater with a plus slider and changeup. Top-of-the-rotation potential.

29. Grant Green		SS	Athletics
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 180	Age: 23	B/T: R/R
Toolsy with nice power, above average speed and arm strength. Needs to improve plate discipline.

30. Lonnie Chisenhall		3B	Indians
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 200	Age: 22	B/T: L/R
Hits very well for average and has solid speed. Lanky frame, solid fielder with a plus arm. Big upside.

Notes: Lawrie and Green are personal favorites of mine. If Lawrie can stick at second, he’ll eventually be a Dan Uggla-type hitter, and any team could use that production out of a usually poor-hitting position. Green is another powerful middle infielder, something Oakland hasn’t had since Miguel Tejada left after the 2003 season. Gibson is also a nice sleeper to jump into the Top 20 next year; he fits in perfectly with the Twins’ pitching mantra.

31. Jarrod Parker		RHP	Diamondbacks
Height: 6’1”	Weight: 180	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Outstanding stuff, particularly his slider and fastball. Coming off major shoulder surgery, should reach the majors soon.

32. Brett Jackson		OF	Cubs
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 210	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Plus across the board, but no one tool is exceptional. Nice power ceiling and speed, above-average fielder.

33. Chris Sale		LHP	White Sox
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 170	Age: 21	B/T: L/L
Dominating with funky motion and plus fastball, changeup, slider. Can start, close. Could be an injury concern if he throws too many innings

34. Jonathan Singleton		1B	Phillies
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 215	Age: 19	B/T: L/L
Strong frame with great swing, plus power, and plate discipline. Eventually may be moved to the outfield.

35. Miguel Sano		SS	Twins
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 195	Age: 17	B/T: R/R
Raw, but has all the skills in the world. Great power potential, huge frame. Eventually will probably move to third base.

36. Jose Iglesias		SS	Red Sox
Height: 5’11”	Weight: 175	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Ace defender with plus range and arm strength. Quick hands, compact swing, little more than gap power.

37. Dee Gordon		SS	Dodgers
Height: 5’11”	Weight: 150	Age: 22	B/T: L/R
Fantastic speed and athleticism, but not much else. Power and glove haven’t come along quite as well.

38. Derek Norris		C	Nationals
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 210	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Low batting average, but has great power and walks a lot. Poor defender, fairly slow, but has a great arm.

39. Jenrry Mejia		RHP	Mets
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 160	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Great fastball that touches the high 90s with nice movement. Health and future role are unclear.

40. Chris Archer		RHP	Rays
Height: 6’3”	Weight: 180	Age: 22	B/T: R/R
Has a plus fastball and a great strikeout rate, but he often loses control. High upside starter.

Notes: Jarrod Parker is very intriguing because he would have been Top 25 last year had he not a year after his shoulder surgery. If he bounces back right on track, he could be D-Backs ace in not too long. The trio of shortstops at 35-36-37 are all very different, but very talented. Sano is by far the best hitter with a great overall bat and the most room to grow. Iglesias is by far the best fielder, by most accounts the best fielding prospect of the last decade. Dee Gordon, son of former closer Tom, is by far the fastest and most athletic but needs a big year after a solid-at-best 2010 campaign.

41. Anthony Ranaudo		RHP	Red Sox
Height: 6’7”	Weight: 225	Age: 21	B/T: R/R
Huge-framed power pitcher with a great curveball. Dominating stuff, needs a little refinement.

42. Christian Friedrich		LHP	Rockies
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 215	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Tall, aggressive starter with a nice four-pitch mix including a plus curve. Has had elbow issues.

43. Freddie Freeman		1B	Braves
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 215	Age: 23	B/T: L/L
Big frame and solid all around. Put up great numbers at a young age, even at higher levels. Big bat, makes hard contact.

44. Yonder Alonso		1B	Reds
Height: 6’2”	Weight: 210	Age: 23	B/T: L/R
Strong frame and very disciplined with a great bat. Still has some power to develop. Plays some outfield.

45. Tanner Scheppers		RHP	Rangers
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 200	Age: 24	B/T: R/R
Has an electric fastball and plus curveball. Could be ace or shutdown closer if he can avoid the injury bug.

46. Nick Castellanos		3B	Tigers
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 195	Age: 18	B/T: R/R
Great raw power with potential to be a great hitter. Solid fielder with great arm. High upside, but far from hitting the show.

47. Jared Mitchell		OF	White Sox
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 205	Age: 22	B/T: L/L
Extremely athletic with solid power potential and great speed. Smooth in the field. Injuries are a concern.

48. Chris Carter		1B	Athletics
Height: 6’5”	Weight: 230	Age: 24	B/T: R/R
Large frame with elite power and on-base skills. Poor fielder, slow, and undisciplined. Likely will be relegated to DH.

49. Arodys Vizcaino		RHP	Braves
Height: 6’0”	Weight: 189	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Has a plus curveball and can crank up the heat, still with great control. Health is a concern, but otherwise has high upside.

50. Jordan Lyles		RHP	Astros
Height: 6’4”	Weight: 215	Age: 20	B/T: R/R
Durable innings eater who consistently pounds the zone. Nice slider, changeup, and control.

Notes: Vizcaino is another favorite of mine because of his arsenal, high velocity, young age, and fantastic name (of course). If he stays healthy, he could be a lesser version of his teammate, Julio Teheran. Castellanos and Ranaudo, both supplemental first-rounders in 2010, are way more talented than their draft slots would dictate. Castellanos was one of the top prep bats, but his giant bonus demands pushed him down to the 44th pick. Ranaudo would have been a top-5 pick if he wasn’t injured for his last college season, but dominated the Cape Cod League during the summer before he signed for top-5 money.