MLB

It’s about time for old-school statistics to make way for the new generation of baseball measurements.

As most of you already know, Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young Award, despite owning a 13-12 record. But does that even matter?

In the history of the Cy Young Award, no starting pitcher has ever won with less than 15 wins, and that bar was set a mere two years ago by Tim Lincecum. At the same time, no pitcher who led the league in innings, strikeouts, and quality starts ever lost the award, either. In addition to that, King Felix also was second in the league in strikeouts (one behind Jered Weaver) and WHIP. Hernandez was the most dominant pitcher in the American League — by far — all he lacked was run support.

The case many people made for CC Sabathia to win the Cy Young was his dependability. Sabathia was the proud owner of a 21-7 record, the first pitcher to win over 20 games since Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb did so in 2008. But in reality, the only edge he has over Hernandez is wins. In every single other significant category, King Felix holds a significant advantage.

Let’s take a look at Player A and Player…

From this chart, it’s pretty clear which pitcher you want. Player B is far superior in every single category. The only difference is wins and losses. But what goes into getting a win?

A win is one of the most flawed stats in baseball, right up there with the RBI. If Felix Hernandez pitches a complete game and gives up one run and loses 0-1, is that a worse game than CC going 5 innings, giving up 6 runs, and winning the game 9-6? Furthermore, if you leave the game in the top of the eighth inning with the score 2-2 and your team scores in the bottom of the inning, does that make your start any better?

The problem for Felix this year was his teammates. His team couldn’t hit, and his bullpen couldn’t hold a lead. Not only was his offense abysmal, it is the worst in 37 years! Ever since the AL instituted the DH, no team has been worse offensively than the 2010 Seattle Mariners.

Not only were the Mariners incredibly insufficient, they gave the least run support in the league to King Felix. The man received a mere 3.75 runs of support per nine inning. Compare that to CC’s 7.31 runs per nine inning and Phil Hughes’s league tops 9.60 runs per nine innings, and its no wonder there is such a discrepancy in wins.

There is no competitor more fierce than Felix Hernandez.

If won-loss records really meant something, Phil Hughes would be twice the pitcher Felix Hernandez is. Hughes finished the year at an 18-8 clip, far superior to Hernandez’s 13-12 record. All that their records mean is that Hughes capitalized better on his nearly triply better run support.

More so than wins and losses, a better way to measure quality outings is, well, quality starts. If you can consistently go six innings and give up three or less runs, your team will win a majority of your games. Felix, however, averaged over seven innings and King Felix led the league with a whopping 30 quality starts in just 34 starts. Hughes, on the other hand, only had 15 quality starts.

Sadly, however, quality starts do not always translate to wins. Hernandez led the league with eight tough losses, quality starts that result in losses. If you still don’t have an idea of how historically bad this Mariners team is, ESPN’s Jayson Stark had a whole section in his annual Strange but true team feats of the year column devoted to their dysfunctional offense. If we take a look back and CC and Phil Hughes, they only combined for 5 tough losses all season, largely thanks to their generous run support.

Ultimately, teammates’ help does not determine the best pitcher. What determines the best pitcher is how they play in the biggest games. Against the AL East, the best-hitting division in baseball, King Felix always was throwing his A-game. Hernandez had seven starts against the AL East and held the opposition to a measly 0.63 ERA over 57.1 innings. He also had a 0.72 WHIP while striking out 58 batters. The bigger the game for Hernandez, the better the performance. Top that, CC and Phil. Compared to Felix, their lines of 3.41 ERA/1.20 WHIP/6.9 K/9 and 4.52/1.27/6.4 and they might as well be Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny in big games.

This year, Felix Hernandez was the man. He had little to play for in Seattle, yet he was tops in the league in almost every relevant category. He dominated the big boys in the AL East. If he had a good offense behind him, or even a competent one, we’d be talking about one of the best seasons ever by a starting pitcher.

It’s time to move on from win-loss records. You guys no better than that. Sure, it’s nice to say you won 20 games in a year, but it’s not as impressive if your team doesn’t have faith in you going into a big game. King Felix was the man this year. King Felix reigns supreme.

Everyone is one the Jets’ bandwagon. They have a fiery coach with big personality. They have a ferocious defense with a swagger about them. After falling a two touchdowns short of the Super Bowl last season, they brought in several savvy veterans too add to an already star-filled roster. But I just can’t see them being a Super Bowl contender, let alone a division winner. So, no, I am not drinking that Jets Green Kool-Aid.

My main problem with the Jets starts at the top: they are a smash-mouth old-fashion team run by the coach with a bigger mouth the Bengals’ receiving corps. All of the old-fashioned football players and fans will tell you that establishing the run is the way to win the game, but as Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz points out, that’s not the case. Furthermore, let’s take a look at the top teams from last year record-wise. We’ve got the Colts, Saints, Chargers, Vikings, Cowboys, Packers, Eagles, Patriots, and Cardinals. Do you notice a pattern? They’re all pass-heavy teams.

The Jets’ pass game is not only sub-par, it’s near incompetent. In his rookie season, Mark Sanchez threw 12 touchdowns to a whopping 20 interceptions and 10 fumbles. The easiest way to lose a game is by turning the ball over, and Sanchez has proved he can do that well. After only completing 53.8% of his passes and 162.9 yards per game, Sanchez was the fourth worst quarterback, only standing in front of the great Brady Quinn, a rookie in Detroit, and a syrup chugger.

After his first eight games of the 2010 season, the Sanchize isn’t doing much better. His completion percentage dropped even lower to 53%, although he is starting to limit his turnovers. In the Jets’ four home games (against Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, and Green Bay), he’s been even worse. Only completing 51% of his passes, Sanchez can’t make the big play to win the game for New York.

But so what? We’ve seen that teams that can win the Super Bowl without a superstar quarterback. Baltimore and Tampa won it all less than ten years ago with a great defense and running game, right? Right?

Wrong.

Football has changed dramatically since the turn of the century; smash-mouth football just isn’t the way to win anymore, you have to be able to air it out. Let’s take a look at the last seven quarterbacks of Super Bowl champions. Brees. Roethlisberger. Manning. Manning. Roethlisberger. Brady. Brady. See the pattern? If you can’t depend on your quarterback to lead you down the field in the biggest moments, you’re not going to win it all. Do you wonder why the Bengals and Chiefs won’t be winning the Super Bowl this year? It’s not because they don’t play great defense; it’s because Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel cannot and will not make the big play.

Even though the Jets brag about having a fantastic run game and defense, they both have big holes, gigantic question marks. Letting go of Thomas Jones this off-season was a giant mistake. TJ averaged 1275 yards over the last five seasons, the most in the NFL except for LaDainian Tomlinson. Ultimately, the Jets didn’t want to pay Jones his $3 million roster bonus on top of his regular salary of $2.8 million.

But now, for the Jets, Thomas Jones is behind them. Other than money, the main reason the Jets felt it necessary to part ways with TJ was the play of rookie Shonn Greene. Drafted with the first pick in the third round of the 2009 draft, Shonn Greene parlayed a standout junior year into a very good NFL job. Even though he only had one year of starting experience, Greene rushed for 5 yards per pop on 108 carries. Greene impressed the Jets’ brass so much, especially in the last two regular season weeks and into the playoffs, that he was handed the starting job.

Now people have tape. Now people see Greene as more than a third down back. Teams have been able to slow Greene to a crawl, and he’s been replaced by LT. LT! The man was over the hill last year! Somehow, he’s been rejuvenated by the change

But I just can’t buy this team as being better than last year. They have a worse running game; LT is no upgrade, he’s not going to be playing this good at the end of the season. They have a target on their backs; every team will take their best shots just to get Rex Ryan and Bart Scott to shut up. The Sanchize can’t make the big play, but he will make the big mistake. I just don’t see it this year.

To top off this pie in the face of the Jets, they have a Kris Jenkins-sized target on their backs. Last season, they were under the radar as a low-scoring team run by a rookie head coach and QB. This season, they’re the biggest talkers with the farthest to walk. They’ll be taking every team’s best shot week after week; there’s no more being overlooked.

Smashmouth teams won’t win championships in this day and age. If you can’t depend on your quarterback to take you on the biggest drive of the game, you aren’t going to win. This team is just too inconsistent for my taste; I just will not drink that green Kool-Aid.

Here are my Week 10 NFL Picks; home teams in CAPS:

Ravens (+1.5) over FALCONS
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco will be tied together forever. The first two QBs taken in the 2008 draft, Ryan and Flacco were coveted by both Atlanta and Baltimore, but the Falcons had the first choice. After Ryan was taken by Atlanta with the third pick, Baltimore traded down and eventually took Flacco. Both turned out to be studs, leading their respective teams to the playoffs. Which player is better? Ryan. Which team is better? Baltimore.

Lions (+2.5) over BILLS
Why on Earth should I take an 0-8 team over a competent offense?

Vikings (-1.5) over BEARS
No matter how dysfunctional the Vikes are, they are extremely talented. I also have to think that if there were no hope, Favre would have retired. He’s still playing and the Bears still have no O-Line. I’ll take the Vikings, please.

Jets (-3.5) over BROWNS
As much as I do not buy the Jets, I will not take the Browns. They caught the Pats and Saints in trap games, and if you think Peyton Hillis will run all over New York’s D, you’re crazy. Colt McCoy will get a wake-up call this week, and the Jets should win this handily. This is your Bojangles’ Famous Sweet Tea Lock o’ the Week.

COLTS (-7.5) over Bengals
I cannot stress this enough: the Bengals are a terrible, awful, no-good team. Carson Palmer somehow gets enough garbage yards at the end of every week to be a semi-competent fantasy quarterback, but he’s just a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad real life quarterback.

Titans (+0.5) over DOLPHINS
I do not care if Randy Moss does not give it his all every down. I do not care if he can be a head case. Even at age 33, he commands double teams, which opens up the field for the Nate Washingtons of the world. Do you know why Percy Harvin averaged 94.4 yards per game in Weeks 5-9? Because Randy Moss opened the field up for him. Do you know why Wes Welker averaged 34.5 yards in the same period? Because Deion Branch just doesn’t command the same respect as Mr. Moss.

Panthers (+7.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are really puzzling. They beat up on bad teams, but not at home. They don’t even average two touchdowns at home, and they rush for nearly 30 less yards than on the road. Now with all of that being said, I still expect the Bucs to pull this out at home. Just not by more than a touchdown.

Texans (+1.5) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars are bad and you cannot convince me otherwise. Mike Sims-Walker is back to being inconsistently good (or consistently inconsistent), but that will not win you games. As long as David Garrard is leading the offense, opponents can stack seven or eight players in the box. If the other team’s offense has any pulse (and the Texans certainly qualify there), they should be able to handily beat these toothless cats.

Chiefs (-0.5) over BRONCOS
If Timmy Tebow was running the offense with Jesus Christ and nine disciples, I still wouldn’t take the Broncos.

Cowboys (+13.5) over GIANTS
I might be the only one who somewhat believes in Dallas. I may be the only one who still thinks Jason Garrett can be a solid coach. I may be the only one who thinks the Cowboys can transform their image in a week’s time. But I can’t be the only one who likes an extremely talented team plus nearly two touchdowns.

Seahawks (+3.5) over CARDINALS
I usually don’t go with the Seahawks on the road, but the Cardinals are really bad. Just knowing Derek Anderson is the starting quarterback should be enough to take Seattle here.

Rams (+5.5) over NINERS
Sam Bradford is the real deal. But at the same time, Bradford owes one man a big thank you: Jake Locker. Locker would have been the first overall pick, but had a Matt Leinart-esque brain fart and returned for his senior year. Now, Bradford is the first overall pick and likely $30 million richer. Locker may be a mid-first rounder instead of the top pick, so he cost himself millions upon millions. So here’s some advice for future players contemplating leaving early: if your stock cannot get any higher, LEAVE!

TFB.

Patriots (+4.5) over STEELERS
These two teams could be the best of the AFC. New England has the superior offense but a porous defense. Pittsburgh has a solid offense and great defense. So why am I riding with the Patriots? TFB.

Eagles (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Michael Vick has never ever seen weapons like he has in Philly. DeSean Jackson. Jeremy Maclin. Brent Celek. LeSean McCoy. Who did he have in Atlanta? Alge Crumpler. Brian Finneran. Michael Jenkins. Peerless Price. Ashley Lelie. And no one ever had more than 877 yards in a single year.

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 53-64

Bojangles Lock o’ the Week: 7-2

How many people can honestly say they thought the Rangers would meet the Giants in the World Series? How many people can actually say they thought either would even make the postseason? Certainly not me.

Going into the season, it was clear to me that the two best teams in the league were the Red Sox and Phillies while the Giants and Rangers were the third best teams in their division. I still think that the Phillies are better than Giants and the Red Sox would have beaten Texas had they not lost Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and V-Mart for most of the season. Unfortunately, the season did not pan out as I thought it would, but here we are at the peak of baseball competition.

To be honest, this is the last matchup Major League Baseball wanted at the start of the League Championship Series. Another Yankees/Phillies World Series was within its grasp; two major markets with great followings would draw huge ratings and bring in massive revenue. But then Cliff Lee and Cody Ross happened. And now we have the Rangers meeting the Giants in the World Series.

People have and will complain about this “bad” World Series matchup. I’ll be honest, Tommy Hunter and Madison Bumgarner don’t exactly excite me either, but if you are a baseball fan, you will watch the World Series no matter who plays. There will definitely be exciting games (pencil in games 1 and 5).

No matter who is playing in the World Series, Major League Baseball has reason for concern. Case and point: Monday, October 18th. That night, it was Game 3 of the ALCS up against Monday Night Football. Normally, one would guess that the NFL would get higher ratings then a middle-of-the-series playoff game, but these were different circumstances. Cliff Lee was pitching lights-out against the Yankees while the Titans were tearing apart the Jaguars. The best pitcher in baseball going up against the most popular team while the two must un-watchable teams not named the Bills played. Guess which game had higher ratings?

Cliff Lee vs. Yankees 6.5
MNF Titans/Jags: 7.2

There are many reasons why this happened. For starters, NFL is far more popular, especially with the emergence of gambling and fantasy football. But there really is no reason for baseball to sink that low. Not in my mind, at least.

Like it or not, either the Rangers and Giants will be hoisting the 106th World Series trophy within the next two weeks. It’s going to be a classic matchup of great pitching and great hitting, so lets get right down to the game-by game breakdowns.

Game 1: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
It’s hard to pick a better matchup to start the World Series than Lee, who is lights out in the postseason, against Lincecum, who has won the last two NL Cy Young Awards. When it comes down to it, Lincecum is more prone to giving up big innings than Lee is, and the Rangers have a better lineup anyways. This game will be low scoring, but Texas will ultimately come out on top.

Don't get too excited about Cody Ross, the Marlins gave him up for nothing. The Marlins. For Nothing.

Game 2: C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
After falling down 0-1, the Giants will need to pull out a win in Game 2. What better pitcher to have up than Matt Cain? Cain is steady, he gets the job done, and he doesn’t waste much time doing so. C.J. Wilson has really come into his own this month, but I expect the Giants’ bit righty bats like Posey, Ross, and Sandoval to mash in this game. As a side note, I don’t know if we should be ecstatic or terrified to see Vladi Guerrero back in right field for the games in San Fran.

Game 3: Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Poor Jonathan Sanchez, yet another player infected with A.J. Burnett syndrome. Oh, what is A.J. Burnett syndrome, you ask. Its a strange condition when you can either throw a 2-hit shutout or get lit up for six runs in two innings. Other effects of AJBS include inability to consistently hit the strike zone, wild temper, and moody brooding in the dugout. Baseball fly far in Arlington, this one will be a win for Texas.

Game 4: Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 4 is the marquee game for sure. Who wouldn’t get excited for two soft-tossing, consistently average, extreme pitch-to-contact pitchers? While this won’t be the favorite game for everyone, it will most likely be the highest scoring. Neither starter will go more than six innings, and hopefully we’ll get to see an inning plus of Brian Wilson’s beard close the game. In the end, however, I would rather have Bumgarner than Hunter, and I think the Giants win a close high-scoring affair to even the series at two apiece.

Game 5: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
I don’t think people realize how great of a playoff pitcher Cliff Lee is. He’s started eight playoff games over the last two seasons and won 7 of them, three against the Yankees. His ERA is a minuscule 1.26 and he owns an equally impressive 0.73 WHIP. He is lights out, untouchable, lock down, game over good. The only reasons doubters are saying he is beatable in the playoffs is that he’s bound to crack some time. Yeah, right. Its safe to pencil in Lee for his second win of the series as the Giants’ bats can’t solve this conundrum.

Game 6: C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Here is where home field advantage finally comes into play: would you rather try to win one game on the road or two at home? The Rangers know the answer to this question, and the answer is C.J. Wilson. The Rangers could face losing Cliff Lee this off-season, and Wilson would be the man to step into their ace role. This game, he proves that he can be the man in Texas. Josh Hamilton will come through against Cain early, and Texas will win their first World Series on their first try.

Ultimately, this series comes down to the fact that the Rangers have the better offense and the best pitcher. Cliff Lee is money in the bank, and C.J. Wilson and crew aren’t so bad either. The Giants offense is the American League equivalent of their neighbors the Athletics; there’s only so much great pitching can help with.

Whether it was the acquisition of Lee, the purchase of the team by Nolan Ryan, or the unity manager Ron Washington brings, this team was meant to win. Texas has the young slugger who’s been in the deepest, darkest place imaginable and back, the unbeatable pitcher, and a lineup filled with veteran players who are flat-out-winners.

I have to say, the Giants are very lucky to be in this position. While I will say that the Rangers are clearly worse than the Phillies and the Giants were able to beat Philly in six games, San Francisco can’t keep riding their hot pitching forever. They are going to fall a bat or two short this series; a series that will come down to the fact that they can’t out-do Cliff Lee.

As a closing note, the Rangers, Red Sox, and every other team needs to send a fruit basket to Yankee Nation as a whole, who offended Cliff Lee’s wife so bad that it could sway the ace away from signing with the Bombers. Thank you, rude Yankee fans, for potentially saving Major League Baseball from Death-by-Yankees.

Everyone needs redemption one day or another. Brett Favre probably would like to play well to save the Vikings’ 1-3 season and move attention away from his Jets fiasco. Randy Moss and Deion Branch want a new and better beginning in their second stint with their old team.

Let’s be honest here, I’m having a rough year picking against the spread. Through the first five weeks, I’m already eight games under .500, but I am 3-1 in my Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Weeks. This is where I turn my season around. This is my Brett Favre picture perfect moment — er — redemption.

Seahawks (+6.5) over BEARS
Am I the only one who doesn’t believe in the Bears? They have no dependable receivers and a quickly aging defense. Except last week, Matt Forte has averaged only two yards per carry. Four wins don’t really matter anyways when you play the Lions and Panthers in two of them.

Ravens (+2.5) over PATRIOTS
Who made this line? The Ravens are in the top-3 Super Bowl favorites now, while the Patriots just lost Randy Moss. What happened the last time the Ravens came to Foxborough? The Ravens won by 19 in the playoffs. I still believe in the Patriots this year, but I’m taking the Ravens all the way, especially if you give me nearly a field goal.

Lions (+10.5) over GIANTS
I just don’t believe in the Giants. They are hot and cold. They lose to the Titans by 19 then beat the Texans by 24. Is Hakeem Nicks really this good? I’ll tell you this: the Lions will definitely keep this game within 11, just wait for Shaun Hill to chuck up balls to Megatron in junk time.

Falcons (+1.5) over EAGLES
How bad is it that Michael Vick can’t play against his former team? It’s bad enough that it will cost Philly the game. Atlanta is one of the best teams in the NFC without question, and a win here could put them atop the entire conference. Matt Ryan is going to take a big step up in this game; he’ll soon be a top-8 NFL quarterback.

STEELERS (-13.5) over Browns
It doesn’t matter how high this line is, I will always take Pittsburgh. Rookie Colt McCoy will be starting his first career game against the NFL’s top defense. Rumor has it that McCoy was so bad in training camp, the only reason he still had a job was the fact that he was their 3rd round pick. You’d think they’d just pound the ball down Pittsburgh’s throats, but do you actually think a banged up Peyton Hillis will be able to do much against the Steelers? Also, Big Ben is in great shape — ya think he’ll be excited to pick apart the Browns’ secondary at will?

PACKERS (-1.5) over Dolphins
Yes, the Packers have lost Jermichael Finley for the year. Yes, the Packers have lost Ryan Grant for the year. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. However, they are still a step above the Dolphins. Chad Henne has looked somewhat shaky and Ricky Williams has been non-existent all year. At home, I’ll take the Packers and their aerial attack.

Chargers (-8.5) over RAMS
The Chargers pulled a Chargers last week. Every year, they start extremely slow and lose to a Raiders-level team. The fans are crushed. Media goes back on their AFC West picks. And then San Diego turns their season around. 2 weeks ago, San Diego laid a beatdown on the Cards 41-10, only to lose to Oakland the very next week. There isn’t a more confusing team in the NFL, but since this is the Rams that we’re talking about, I’ll take the Chargers.

Saints (-5.5) over BUCS
You do realize these are the Bucs, right? I consider myself one of Josh Freeman’s biggest proponents (I said I’d rather have him the Sanchize of draft day), but he is nowhere close to being able to lead Tampa passed New Orleans right now. In a few years, I could see Freeman as a Big Ben-style QB, but in a few hours, I see him as a losing quarterback.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Chiefs
Like the Bears, records do lie. 3-1 doesn’t mean much when you play the Browns, Niners, and Chargers (in Week 1). Their defense isn’t great, and it will need to really step up to stop Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster. That just isn’t going to happen on the road.

The Raiders are so bad that an 0-5 team is favored over them by a touchdown.

NINERS (-6.5) over Raiders
Wait, is Vegas really favoring the 0-5 Niners by a touchdown? Oh, yeah, they’re playing the Raiders.

Jets (-3.5) over BRONCOS
How bad is the Broncos’ running game? Their three leading rushers (Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and Laurency Maroney) are averaging 2.8, 1.9, and 1.9 yards per carry. The immortal Kenneth Darby is averaging 3 yards per carry. Now put them against the Jets’ hungry D. That’s not a good set up.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Cowboys
Is this the best matchup of 1-3 teams ever? These two teams could be the most talented clubs in the NFC, but they both have terrible coaches. Wade Phillips has no control over his team while Brad Childress looks clueless on the sideline 60% of the time every time. The head coaches, however, will not play as big of a roles as Mr. Randy Moss. Moss still hasn’t forgiven the Cowboys for passing on him in the draft. Moss has won all seven of his matchups against Dallas (even while he was in Oakland) and has eleven TDs total. I’m guessing Moss will have a huge game and lead Minny to a huge home victory.

Colts (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Are you really going to go against Peyton in primetime? I didn’t think so. This is the Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week.

Titans (-3.5) over JAGS
Usually, teams play their best in primetime at home. This doesn’t really matter, however, when you are the Jags. Its hard to get hyped up for playing in front of 12,000 fans on a Monday night.

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 32-44

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 3-1

We’ve all had to make that choice of riding a streak out or jumping off the bandwagon. It’s the age-old question: if you flip ten straight heads, is the next one more likely to be a heads or tails? One person is going to say that tail is due, but the next person will almost certainly stick with the “hot coin.” But both people are wrong. Unless this coin is double-sided, each flip is completely independent and has a 50-50 chance of landing on heads or tails.

While sports aren’t as simple as a flip of a coin, you can apply the same principles to streaks and slides. But do streaks and slides even exist?

Let’s take for example perennial slow starter Mark Teixeira. At the start of this season, most people saw him as a .300 hitter. After the first month of the season, he was hitting .136. Going forward, there were three realistic trains of thought as to how he would finish the year:

1) He was projected to hit .300, so he will hit .330 the rest of the way and finish the year right on schedule.

2) He will hit .300 the rest of the way and finish around .280.

3) This just isn’t his year; he’ll hit .260 the rest of the year and finish around .230.

Which is the right answer? Clearly, he wasn’t going to continue hitting just .136 on the year, but there is no definitive answer (although the second choice seems most realistic). Tex actually ended the year hitting just .256; he hit his career average of .285 the rest of the way. So what does this mean? Streaks are a bit overrated, and eventually everything evens out.

Take a look at the two players most often labeled as “playoff clutch”: Derek Jeter and David Ortiz.

Derek Jeter career regular season (.314 AVG, .385 OBP, .452 SLG)
Derek Jeter career post season (.312, .381, .475)

David Ortiz career regular season (.281, .376, .543)
David Ortiz career post season (.283, .388, .520)

Notice anything different? Probably not. Both players’ numbers are shockingly similar from April until November. Again, streaks and slides do exist, but they are largely overblown, as each at-bat is a separate match up.

So the next time you hear an announcer say that Player X is on a fill-in-the-blank hit streak, take it with a grain of salt. Player X isn’t seeing the ball any better, he’s not wearing special goggles or using a corked bat. He’s just the same hitter who may be facing easier pitching, or feeling more confident.

In the end, everything will even out. When the Padres won 10 of 11 in August, it took them a matter of days before tailing off into a ten game losing streak. Nobody in baseball wins over 90 percent of the time; everything will eventually even out

New York Yankees (4) at Texas Rangers (3)

Are these the most polar opposite teams in postseason play? The Rangers just won their first playoff series while they Yankees have won a mere 27 championships and countless series victories. It’s the grumpy old grandpa and the over-excited youngster. This one should be interesting.

Of course, the Yankees would luck out again. First, they won the Wild Card, but then were matched up against the always-over-matched Twins. Then, the Rays and Rangers took their series to five games, having to pitch their aces in the last game. The Yankees now get to sit at home and wait, not having to face Cliff Lee until Game 3.

How important is Cliff Lee to this series? New York was willing to give up prized prospect and hitting machine Jesus Montero to prevent this situation from happening. They were willing to give up a future cheap middle-of-the-order bat to have Cliff Lee one year earlier. This man is a special pitcher.

With Cliff Lee slated to pitch Game 3 and either Game 6 or 7 (depending on if the Rangers trail 3-2 when they return to Arlington), the Rangers will start in a huge hole. As good as C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have been this year, they aren’t trustworthy in big games. Only being able to pitch Cliff Lee twice in the latter half of the series could very likely cost them the series.

The Yankees will be listed as the underdogs (Texas has home field advantage), but they are clear favorites to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic. They have a stacked lineup filled with All-Stars, rising stars, and former stars. They’ve been there. They’ve done that. They are the model of a consistent offense.

In the playoffs, the best pitching will win. The Yankees have the big name guys whose talents may be a bit overstated while the Rangers have Cliff Lee plus no-name pitchers. So it will all come down to consistency in the end.

Which pitcher would you rather have in a Game 7 than Cliff Lee?

The importance of Cliff Lee cannot be overstated. Every time he toes the rubber, you know he’ll go 9 innings strong. This man may be the best playoff pitcher in decades. It’s just too bad for the Rangers that he can’t win games 1, 4, and 7 for them.

The Yankees’ pitching is in just as interesting of a situation as the Rangers’. CC Sabathia is great in the regular season; he is durable, he strikes out batters, and he is a driving force for his club. But for some reason, you can’t count on him in October. His ERA is 4.41 in the postseason with a 1.49 WHIP. Phil Hughes started off the year great with a 2.70 ERA until the summer began, only to end the year with a 4.88 ERA with a 4.66 home ERA. Andy Pettitte is all-time great in the playoffs, but he’s been banged up the entire back end of the season.

If the Rangers are going to win this series, they’ll need to split at home, as weird as that sounds. Unfortunately, with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis going, that will be a challenge. Cliff Lee’s Game 3 start will almost certainly be a win, but Tommy Hunter’s Game 4 start will be anything but inspiring.

In the end, the Yankees have too much hitting and experience not to win this series. I don’t really love their pitching, but after Cliff Lee, the Rangers have next to nothing. I see the Yankees taking both in Texas before taking down the Rangers in 5.

San Francisco Giants (2) at Philadelphia Phillies (1)

Where the ALCS is a matchup of great hitting teams, the NLCS is a matchup of supreme pitching teams. Halladay. Lincecum. Oswalt. Cain. Hamels. Especially when the teams travel west, this series will be lower scoring than a World Cup match.

Philadelphia is without a doubt the best team left in the postseason. If you can beat them when Doc Halladay is pitching, you have to go up against Roy Oswalt the next day. If you can manage to beat Oswalt, you have to take down Cole Hamels the next day. And if you can win those three games, you must be the National League All-Star team.

San Francisco doesn’t have too bad of a rotation, either. Tim Lincecum has been up-and-down this season, but after a horrific August, he picked up his game for a fantastic September. Jonathan Sanchez, like Lincecum, has been very boom or bust. In 17 of his 34 starts, he allowed one or no runs, but in twelve other starts, he allowed three or more runs. Matt Cain represents the most consistent of their top three starters; he’ll give up a few runs, but he will go seven or eight innings strong.

As much as I believe in Pat the Bat and Jose Guillen, I just can't go with the Giants powerhouse offense over the Phillies.

Philadelphia has a distinct edge in pitching, but an even bigger one on the hitting side. With three 30-homer hitters along with two speedy veterans, the Phillies have a complete lineup. As for the Giants, they have Buster Posey, Kung Fu Panda, and a bunch of 30-year olds. Doc, Oswalt, and Hamels aren’t going to be easily shaken up by the Vottos, Howards, and Fielders of baseball world, so don’t expect Pat the Bat, Jose Guillen, and Juan Uribe to put the Fear of God into Philly.

Like I said for the Reds, if a team is going to beat the Phillies, they need to score early to get to the Phillies’ bullpen as soon as possible. Once the Phillies’ starters get into a groove, you are not going to score. If you can see four innings of Chad Durbin, Danys Baez, and Jose Contreras, you have a much better chance of winning. Unfortunately, as long as Burrell and Guillen are getting serious playing time, I don’t see that happening.

The Phillies, plain and simple, just out-class the Giants. They are better in every phase of the game and they have home field advantage. They have quality. They have quantity. They have what it takes to win.

A sweep would be very hard for Philly, and I don’t see that happening. Philadelphia will take this one in 5, and they are my pick to bring home the hardware later this month.

I’ve always thought this, but I’ve never quite found the right way to put it. It happens across all sports, of course, not just in baseball. Teams on the East Coast are just better than the rest of the league.

12 of the last 16 World Series Champs. The three best teams in the majors. 4 of the top 5 payrolls in the league.

East Coast teams aren’t just better than the rest of the league, they are willing to go farther and spend more to win. So are these teams better because all of the money is on the East Coast? I wouldn’t say so, but it is a big factor.

The success of East Coast teams goes beyond baseball. In New England and along the Atlantic, everything is a business. People have worked hard going back centuries to the Puritans, and baseball is a way of life. As for the other side of the US, sports are more of a social event. Games are hardly ever sold out, and people go for the food and friends rather than the excitement of the game. The vibe of the city doesn’t ride on their team’s success as it does in the Northeast, and sports don’t seem to matter as much there.

Free Agents in all sports are showing. In the NBA, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, and Shaquille O’Neal all came east while no major free agent went to the West. The top three MLB free agents of 2009 (Matt Holliday, John Lackey, and Jason Bay) all stayed away from the west coast while two of them joined East Coast clubs. Even in football, Vince Wilfork and Jared Gaither stayed on the East Coast for a discount while Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby left the West Coast for their new homes.

The imbalance is clearly largest in Major League Baseball. Throughout the season, the top four teams have been the Rays, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox while the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mariners floundered at the bottom of the league. The AL East was by far the best division in the league, but the NL and AL West produced six poor teams.

The signs are everywhere, and they aren’t going away for a while: the best teams are in the east. My playoff picks reflect this new shift of power, and the World Series will reflect it too.

Cincinnati Reds (3) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (1)

On paper, it’s nearly impossible to make a case that the Phillies shouldn’t be the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series. They have three aces, a deep and talented lineup, and a been-there-done-that mentality. With a perfect balance of youth and experience, power, speed, and pitching, this team is ready to go.

The last time Cincy was in the playoffs, this guy stole 51 bases.

The Reds, on the other hand, are a completely different story. Often picked to finished third or worst in the Central, Cincy used its home ballpark to its advantage and slugged there way to their first playoff appearance in fifteen years. The Reds are new to the playoff atmosphere; only Bronson Arroyo, Ramon Hernandez, Orlando Cabrera, and Scott Rolen have played in the playoffs.

At first glance, the Phillies are going to be huge favorites in this series. They have better starters. They have better hitters. They have more experience. So in order for the Reds to overcome this Philly Phanatic-sized challenge, they need to make the Phillies play to their strengths.

What the Phillies have pitching-wise, the Reds don’t have. Philadelphia will outclass Cincy every game in terms of starting pitching; Edinson Volquez-Arroyo-Cueto won’t cut it against Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. But if the Reds can jump on one of the starters early, they’ll quickly expose the Phillies’ weak underbelly: the ‘pen.

Brad Lidge is by far the worst closer in the playoffs, even when he’s on his A-game. As Philly fans can attest, no lead under five is safe with him, but they really don’t have any better options. Ryan Madsen thrives in his eighth inning role, but can’t hit the strike zone when he goes in for the ninth. Journeymen J.C. Romero and Danys Baez are replacement-level reliever who found a roster spot on the NL East champion’s roster.

Scoring early hasn’t been a problem for Cincinnati this year. The Reds led the National League in scoring by a nice margin, largely thanks to MVP candidate Joey Votto’s emergence as one of the top young first basemen in the game and Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce’s reemergence. Putting runs on the board early will put pressure on the Phillies and manager Charlie Manuel, known oftentimes to make quick, poor decisions. Also, any way to get Jose Contreras into the game earlier can only help.

Things won’t be that easy for the Reds, though. You can make a great case that although the Phillies scored less runs, their offense (when healthy) is much stronger. With three starters able to go eight or nine innings strong, you can’t expect the Reds to continue to score five and six points per game. In October, pitching wins, and Philadelphia has a distinct edge there.

I see Philly taking Games 1 and 2 at home behind the strong pitching of Halladay and Oswalt, but losing Game 3 after the Reds tear apart Cole Hamels (Philly had better hope it doesn’t mess with his psyche). With Halladay going on regular rest, I see the Phillies closing out the Reds on the road as they move on to NLCS.

I really wanted to pick the Reds in the first round, and I would have taken them over the Braves had they finished with a better record than San Francisco. But that’s not how things shook out, and Cincinnati will have to wait ’til next year and pray for better pitching.

Atlanta Braves (4) at San Francisco Giants (2)

If you’re not from the Bay Area or the ATL, this series will be a snoozer. The Giants play in a top-five pitcher friendly ballpark with little in the way of offense. Atlanta is solid all around, but will be missing All-Stars Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. So get ready everybody! Get psyched for Tommy Hanson! Aubrey Huff! And everybody’s favorite All-Star…..Omar Infante!

The name of the game for the Braves and Giants this year has been run prevention. Finishing fourth and second in the league respectively in runs, both teams have put an emphasis on pitching and defense this season. While they were able to pitch there way to many wins, neither offense has much to brag about. Rookie of the Year candidates Jason Heyward (my NL ROY pick) and Buster Posey were the two bright spots this year, but the rest of the teams are filled with aging vets, has-beens, and uninspiring stopgaps.

After Posey, the rest of the Giants lineup looks pretty dreadful. Freddy Sanchez, Jose Guillen, and Pat “The Bat” Burrell look awfully old and shouldn’t be major contributors on a playoff team. Kung Fu Panda is a fraction of his rookie self — but not in weight. If you want to gauge how poor their offense has been, just look to the fact that their top three hitters were Burrell, Huff, and a rookie.

Atlanta has been solid all year. Not fantastic. Not average. Just Solid. While they will miss Chipper and Martin Prado a lot, most of their offense came from other places. Super prospect Jason Heyward has become the Braves’ best hitter, and Brian McCann continues to quietly work hard to put up big numbers. Mid-season acquisitions Derrek Lee and Alex Gonzalez have been fairly good since they landed in Atlanta, but they aren’t game changers anymore.

Interesting Note: Eric Hinske's team has reached the World Series each of the last three seasons (Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees)

The problem with Atlanta is that they have too many “eh” players. What do I mean? If you saw the graphic in the bottom corner of the screen that said “Coming up next: Eric Hinske, Rick Ankiel, Omar Infante” the only thing you could say is “eh.” They are uninspiring with little upside, but solid productivity. They won’t sell out games. They won’t draw viewers. But they do work and quietly do most of what they’re asked.

This series will be very low scoring, so ultimately it will come down to which pitchers can stay mistake free for the longest. Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson fit the safe-and-steady pitcher role who will only give up one to three runs over seven innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen. Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are just too inconsistent for my taste. Lincecum and Sanchez can both be lights out as they have demonstrated many times, but they are just as likely to blow up for five runs over three innings.

Consistency will end up winning this series, and consistency is on the Braves’ side. You just can’t depend on Zito, Burrell, Guillen, and the Giants bullpen and hope to go far in the playoffs. I don’t love the team the Braves are fielding, but they can play well night after night and shut you down once you get into the bullpen. At the end of the day, Atlanta has more talent and more motivation (Bobby Cox’s last season), and will ultimately take this series in 5.

How crazy is the NFL Season? The Bucs and Chiefs are 2-0 while the Cowboys and Vikings are 0-2. So what does this tell us? We still don’t know much about any of the teams. We think the Texans will be good and the Niners might be bad, but 2 games tell us just about nothing. With that in mind, here are my Week 3 NFL picks; home teams are in BOLD.

Niners (-2.5) over CHIEFS
What happened to Michael Crabtree last week? San Fran’s top receiver was only targeted 3 times and finished the game with one spectacular catch for 32 yards. Winning with Alex Smith at the helm is hard enough, especially when he can’t get the ball to Crabtree. Coach Singletary keeps insisting Crabtree is still in his rookie year after joining the team midseason last year, but Crabtree needs to be more involved. The 49ers need this win, no matter how bad their division is, so I’ll take the desperate road team here.

There's only so much confidence you can have in any of the Browns' quarterbacks.

RAVENS (-10.5) over Browns
For anyone thinking about taking the Browns here, just think about Seneca Wallace heading INTO Baltimore to faced a hyped up defense led by Ray Lewis. That usually doesn’t end up well for a team led by a quarterback the caliber of Mr. Wallace.

Cowboys (+2.5) over TEXANS
Wade Phillips always has a way of losing big games, but winning when his job depends on it. This would qualify as one of those games. Dallas is 0-2 and heading into a bye next week; if a loss today isn’t the perfect storm for Jerry Jones to bring in Bill Cowher, I don’t know what is.

Lions (+10.5) over VIKINGS
The Vikings need this game. The Vikings are at home. The Vikings will win the game. However, the Lions have a habit of logging unreal amounts of garbage time points late in games, even with Shaun Hill at quarterback. 10.5 points is just too many to give away to a division rival, so I’m taking Minnesota for the win, but the Lions to cover with a late score.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Bills
Last week we learned that no spread is too big when the Bills are playing. The only thing funnier then watching the Bills play is watching how they handle their runningback conundrum. Fred Jackson is playing the best, but they drafted C.J. Spiller 9th overall last May. Now, they’ve benched Spiller to play former first-rounder Marshawn Lynch, claiming they won’t trade him any time soon. Now Spiller is 3rd string, and management “doesn’t want to” trade Lynch. All I can say is “C’mon now!”

SAINTS (-4.5) over Falcons
Saints at home? Yes Please! Michael Turner is banged up and the Saints D will be psyched for their first divisional game.

Titans (+3.5) over GIANTS
I’m still in shock about why Jeff Fisher yanked Vince Young in a tight game against the Steelers for 38 year old Kerry Collins! Either way, I’d rather have VY then Eli Manning, a player who I still insist is a product of the luckiest play in Super Bowl history and a football family. The Titans are stronger in the trenches, and have a far superior running game. Gimme the Titans, and gimme the points.

Steelers (-2.5) over BUCS
You do realize that these are the Bucs, right? You do realize they are coached by Raheem Morris, right? I don’t care if Pittsburgh is led by pseudo-coach Charlie Batch or Antwaan Randel El, I’m taking the Steelers here.

Bengals (-3.5) over PANTHERS
As much as I’d love to take the Panthers, I just can’t do it. Jimmy Clausen is making his first career start, so expect the Bengals to bring a bull rush just about every other down. The key to the game will be who can win the aerial attack, and I just don’t think Chris Gamble and the Panthers secondary can shut down Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham.

Eagles (-2.5) over JAGUARS
Michael Vick looks like the Michael Vick of old. Well, that probably because he played the Lions and 2 quarters of garbage time against Green Bay. The again, he’s playing the Jags. Yeah, I’ll take Philly.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS
When’s the last time the Rams were only favored to lose by 3.5 points? 2006?

Colts (-6.5) over BRONCOS
The Colts have won their last 15 games by an average of 12.6 points. That’s nearly 2 touchdowns. That’s including games against the Jets, Ravens, Patriots, and Houston. Do you think going into Mile High Stadium is going to phase Peyton? Probably not. This is the Bojangles Lock o’ the Week.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Raiders
Both of these teams are enigmas. The Raiders look alright, but then they bring back Bruce the Plumber. The Cardinals had high hopes going into the year, and now they’re playing Derek Anderson. At least Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald and is playing at home.

Chargers (-5.5) over SEAHAWKS
As the Broncos proved last week, Seattle is not good. The Chargers have a great offense and solid defense, even with Vincent Jackson out and Ryan Mathews at 90%. Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and Legedu Naanee are 6’4″, 6’5″, and 6’2″ respectively while Seattle’s secondary of Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, and Earl Thomas are 5’11”, 5’11”, and 5’10” respectively. Those mismatches are just too much to overcome.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Jets
What is dumber the getting a DWI in New York? Braylon Edwards was twice the legal limit at .16% BAC, yet decided to drive with several other teammates. In New York City. There are more cabs in New York City then there are people in Idaho. There are more cabs in New York City then there species of birds. There are more cabs in New York city then the combined weight of Rex Ryan, their O-line, and D-Line. On top of that, Jets’ owner Woody Johnson has a service set up for his players who think they aren’t in the best condition to get home. But the funniest part of all is that Rex Ryan says that Braylon is a distraction. REX says that BRAYLON is a distraction.

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
Home teams usually way out-perform themselves on Monday Night Football, but you can only do so well with a receiver corps of Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, and Devin Hester. The Packers have too many offensive weapons to lose here, and a win to give them a vicegrip on the division.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 15-17

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 1-1

Baseball is a game of hope; long seasons allow for plenty of changes atop the division while those stuck at the wrong end of the division can look forward to their young players developing into stars.

Being a Royals fan has very few bright spots. You go into the year hoping to escape the basement and end the year inevitably 30 games out of playoff contention. So, instead of looking forward to the next day’s game, you have to look forward to next season’s stars. We’ve all heard the hype surrounding big-time prospects Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Bryce Harper, but one older prospect is just sneaking under the media’s radar: Kila Ka’aihue.

A man of many nicknames, The Kila Monster is the Tower of Hitting Power

Yes, it is finally time for the Royals to unleash the Kila Monster! Kila Ka’aihue (pronounced KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a) is the tower of batting power, and now that he finally has an every day major league job, expect big time production from this Hawaiian slugger. Even though he is 26 years old, Kila Ka’aihue is one of the biggest pure hitting prospects to come out of the Royals’ system in years.

If you take a look at Kila’s numbers, you’ll notice two outstanding features: big power and great discipline. Over the last three seasons, he mashed 78 homers while drawing 294 walks to only 221 strikeouts. Those numbers were clearly deserving of a call to the majors, but despite that production, his road to the show has been a long one.

Drafted out of Iolani High School in the 15^th round (438^th overall), Kila was an unknown quantity. With his 6’3” muscular frame, he was sure to put up good power numbers, but his contact was far less predictable. That showed in his first three seasons where he only compiled 29 homers with a .244 batting average. While those numbers were well below his expectations, if you dig deeper, a great pattern was starting to emerge: his on-base percentage during the same period was .359!

Coming into his fourth season, Kila still hadn’t amounted to much; he was a poor-fielding first baseman with nice power potential, but below-average contact. The Royals didn’t want him to spend a third consecutive season in Low-A ball, so they promoted him to High-A Burlington, which seemed to do the trick. Kila finally broke through, hitting .304 with 20 homers and 90 runs driven in, amounting to a whopping .428 on-base percentage. In addition to the hitting boost, Kila also walked as many times as he struck out, after compiling 63 more whiffs than free passes in his pro career.

With his confidence higher then ever, Kila received a promotion to AA Wichita, hoping to build upon a career season. However, he couldn’t flip the switch, and had the worst year ever. Kila couldn’t catch up to advanced pitching and stumbled along to a paltry .199 with just 21 extra base hits. But still, he was able to reach base at an extraordinary rate — .304 to be exact.

It was clear that Kila wasn’t able to hit well in AA, so the Royals sent him back to High-A. The Royals lit a fire under Kila , and he nearly returned to his top form from two years back. After 60 games, Kansas City had seen enough – a .251 batting average, but 9 homers and a .360 OBP – and he earned a ticket back to Wichita.

Kila’s second stint in AA was much more successful; he doubled his home run output, raising his batting average and on-base percentage around 50 points in fewer than 100 at-bats.  He finished the season with a career high in homers, but he was 23 years old, stuck at AA, and his best days were potentially behind him.

We all know the cliché, “third time’s a charm,” and this was certainly the case for Kila. During his third stint in AA, Kila erupted for 26 homers, a .314 average, and .463 OBP, while drawing nearly double as many walks as Ks (80 to 41) in just 376 at-bats. Kansas City elevated him to AAA, and the power surge continued.

With just over a month left to go in the minor league season, Kila launched 11 more homers while maintaining a .316 average and a .439 on-base percentage.  Kila was so good that he earned a September call-up, where he hit one homer in 24 plate appearances, hitting .286 with a .375 OBP. More importantly, he ended the season with a sensational 1.085 OPS, something only Albert Pujols could duplicate that season.

Even after having a monstrous offensive season – the best season of his short career – the Royals opted to use Mike Jacobs and Mitch Maier instead of the Kila Monster. Still stuck in AAA, Kila continued to put up gaudy power numbers, but this time his batting average shrunk back to his 2002-04 form: .252. But despite his problems creating consistent contact, Kila managed to maintain a .392 on-base percentage and drew 17 more walks the strikeouts (102-85). Even though he was having trouble consistently getting hits, he was reaching base regularly and showing great plate discipline.

Now it is 2010, and Kila is in his third AAA stint. Kila is 25 years old, and his major league prospects are shrinking. Whether it is job insecurity, or his aclimation to AAA pitching, Kila got his stuff together. He launched 24 home runs in 94 games, posting a .314 batting average, .463 OBP, and again breaking the 1.000 OPS barrier. Kila also drew 88 walks to only 69 strikeouts, earning him a May callup to the big leagues.

Unfortunately for Kila, his stint with the Royals was a short-lived one. After 12 games, he only got one start and finished with just an RBI single in 4 at-bats. Kila spent the next two and a half months in AAA Omaha before he earned another call-up at the start of August.

On August 13, the Royals traded hot-headed designated hitter Jose Guillen to the Giants, clearing the way for Kila to own an every-day job. Over the next three games, Kila responded by getting 5 hits, scoring 2 runs, and knocking one more in.

The big lefty slugger represents a better future for the Royals. Playing alongside promising youngsters Billy Butler, Mike Aviles, Alex Gordon, and Mitch Maier, Kansas City looks to take back the AL Central with a youth movement.

Even though the Kila Monster has yet to catch on in the majors, he has taken his time to find success at nearly every level of the minor leagues. It took him three years to hit well at AA, and it took him three years to succeed in AAA. Next season will be his third in the majors, so beware of the Kila Monster.

Here we are, 72 days into the season, and Nationals’ superstar prospect Stephen Strasburg has only started two games. Seven selections later in the 2009 Draft, the Reds selected Mike Leake, a polished starting pitcher out of Arizona State. Instead of giving Leake time to further develop in the minors, the Reds made Leake only the 20th player to bypass the minor leagues. Now he has a 2.68 ERA and no losses through 12 starts; Leake is clearly the best pitcher on their staff.

This off-season, all the chatter was about Stephen Strasburg and a Reds rookie pitcher. No, not Leake, but flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman. Leake went completely under the radar and stepped up in Spring Training to seize the final spot in the Cincinnati rotation over Chapman and Travis Wood.

Leake has never been a flashy player. He’s listed at 6’1″ but is really more like 5’11”, rarely hits higher then 92 on the radar, and induces lots of ground balls. Before the draft, a Reds scout went to see him pitch, trying to find a reason to dislike him, but he couldn’t. Leake is athletic, he has a wide arsenal of pitches, and he can pitch deep into games. Most importantly, he gets the job done.

Mike Leake's game as scrappy as his hair and beard

Leake spent three years Arizona State, and ended up as one of the most dominating pitchers in college. The first two years, his ERA stayed in the mid-3.00s and complied 24 wins and two saves. Nothing too special, batters hit .256 off him. But he made a big leap in his junior year. Leake started 18 games as a Sun Devil and won 16 of them. His ERA was more then halved, from 3.59 to 1.71. The opposition only hit .193 against him. His strikeout rate rocketed from 7.17 to 10.27 per nine innings. All of a sudden, Leake became the best college pitcher after Stephen Strasburg.

Leake’s dominance is even more surprising considering his competition. Whereas Strasburg pitched against the likes of Utah, New Mexico, and Wagner, Leake consistently played against the big boys in a major conference. Arizona State is one of the most stories college baseball programs, reaching 22 College World Series and winning five of them.

Whether it was lack of size or elite velocity, Leake fell into the Reds’ lap at #8 in the draft, and they found themselves a great young starting pitcher. Featuring a sinking fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, Leake has been off to a historic season. He is the first Cincinnati pitcher ever – not just rookie – to go undefeated after 12 starts. Leake owns a 5-0 record and a 2.68 ERA, both a testament to his hard work and determination.

Not only has Leake stepped up to enter the record books, but he has also stepped up into the role of the Reds ace. Leake is the only Reds starter to have an ERA under 4.50, and he is nearly two runs below that! In eight out of twelve starts, he has given up two or less runs, and in seven starts he’s surrendered two or less walks. Leake has even stepped up at the plate, where he is hitting .400 through 31 trips to the plate.

By now, it is clear the Reds made the right decision when they chose Mike Leake for the final spot in the rotation over Chapman and Wood. The common thought on young pitchers is to give them plenty of time in the minors for two reasons: to give them more seasoning and to save money.

Last season, the Braves had a very good pitching prospect, Tommy Hanson. They wanted to prevent him from reaching Super Two Status, so they left him to dominate in the Minors for the first two months of the year. From that point on, Hanson won 13 games and was lights out for most of the year. The Braves finished the season 5 games out of the playoffs. It’s very conceivable that if Hanson had an extra 10-12 starts, the Braves would have made the playoffs. They chose money of winning.

One year later, the Braves were in the same situation. Jason Heyward, the next big thing, crushed major league pitching in spring training and deserved a spot on the 25-man Opening Day roster. Trying not to make the same mistake they made the year previous, Atlanta opted to let the young star play a full season in the majors. Now, they lead the NL East by 1.5 games over the Mets.

The Nationals were in a similar situation at the start of this season when dealing with Stephen Strasburg. They had a choice to make between winning and money. Keep Stephen Strasburg for an extra year at a lower cost or have two extra months of Strasburg. They chose the former, and look where they are now: 5.5 games out of the playoffs. There is no doubt that if the Nats had given Strasburg 12 extra starts over the likes of J.D. Martin and Luis Atilano, Washington could be atop the NL East. So, maybe having Strasburg for two months in his rookie season isn’t as valuable as he will be in 5 years, but winning now is more important then winning later.

So after letting their prized prospect just straight to the Bigs, the Reds can only be pleased with what they see. They have a future top-of-the-rotation stud in Leake and are perched atop the NL Central. Cincy made their choice between winning and money, and the decision clearly will make an impact on your season. So which do you want: the money, or the wins?

It’s not too rare to hear a player call out an umpire, an opponent, a coach, or other personnel in any sport. But to call out a 12 time All-Star who will likely own the career home run record is profound. Dallas Braden called out Alex Rodriguez when A-Rod ran over his mound as he was running from third to first after a foul ball. Braden, clearly more in tune with the unwritten rules of baseball, yelled at Rodriguez and blasted him in the post-game press conference, calling him disrespectful towards the game and more. 17 days later, Braden threw a perfect game, leading to his grandmother attending the game to say, “Stick it, A-Rod.”

According to Rodriguez, he was shocked at what happened; “especially from a guy that has a handful of wins in his career … I thought it was pretty funny actually.” Clearly, A-Rod didn’t care much for Mr. Braden, and the feeling is mutual. So the question becomes, would Braden have said that if Yankee teammate Derek Jeter was the one who ran over the mound. There are two simple answers. First off, Jeter wouldn’t jog over the mound; he respects the game enough to not do that. Second off, we can tell by his family (specifically his grandmother) that he would have yelled at anyone, be it A-Rod, Jeter, or Albert Pujols.

One month ago, no one new who Dallas Braden was, but now he's made a name for himself

While a high school senior, Braden’s mother passed away, leaving him to live with his grandmother. Because of this, his grandmother and Mother’s Day means even more to this young pitcher. So on this special day, he showed up big time, proving his doubters wrong, and putting his name out there as one of the better young pitchers in the game.

Fighting is nothing for Braden; he’s had to claw his way to the top of the baseball world. Braden didn’t have the hype that many players have gotten, and he was drafted in the 24th round by Oakland. Drawing comparisons to Jamie Moyer and a lesser version of Mark Buehrle, Braden has never had elite velocity or a hard breaking pitch. But after five years in the minor leagues, he finally secured the second spot in the rotation, beating out highly touted prospects Brett Cahill, Vin Mazarro, and Josh Outman. Now, he’s one of the more fiery players in the game.

So the new kid on the block picked on the bully. Is this more about Braden not shrinking to any foe, or how the bully just doesn’t get the respect that his production would indicate he deserves?

A-Rod has been, well, a lightning rod for attention. Between slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove in the 2004 ALCS, Yelling at Toronto Howie Clark while rounding third base, and now crossing Braden’s pitching mound, Rodriguez has deservedly acquired a poor reputation among players and the media.

Baseball, as opposed to football and basketball, is a game of tradition. Swagger and showing up opponents is widely frowned upon in baseball whereas in the other two, it is all too common. For example, Rangers’ prospect Engel Beltre stepped up to the plate in the 10th inning and smashed the ball over the right field fence for a walk-off home run. As he rounded the bases, he turned around and taunted the opposition and jogged backwards. From there, a fight broke out and pandemonium broke loose. If Kobe Bryant knocks down a game winning shot, his team goes crazy and they yell at the other team, but that never, ever happens in baseball.

You have to respect the game of baseball. You have to honor its traditions, rules, and even its unwritten rules. The team is bigger then the player. Outside of Stephen Strasburg, you’ll never go to a game just to see one player, whereas you may go to a basketball game just to see LeBron James or Dwayne Wade. Baseball doesn’t sell players; they sell teams and, again, tradition.

A-Rod is one of those rogue players who is oftentimes concerned about his personal image and stats. As Braden puts it, “He’s an individualistic player. He plays for the name on the back of the jersey, not the front. I don’t know if he’s noticed, but he doesn’t have a name on the back over there so he should play for the name on the front.”

To Braden’s point, A-Rod and other players like him need to respect the game more and show etiquette. Since Rodriguez is the poster boy for arrogant players who disrespect the game, it is his job to change his behavior, which can only lead to others’ change. “He should probably take a note from his captain over there and realize you don’t cross the pitcher’s mound in between an inning or during the game.” says Braden. “I was just dumbfounded that he would let that slip his mind — being someone of such status. I don’t care if I’m Cy Young or the 25th man on the roster”

So after the A-Rod/Braden feud and Braden’s subsequent perfect game, two things are for certain: A-Rod and players like him need to clean up their act and we need more people like Dallas Lee Braden. In closing, Mr. Braden has offered Mr. Rodriguez a quote to ponder: “I was always told if you give a fool enough rope, he’ll hang himself, and with those comments, he had all the rope he needed.”