The Debut of Debuts

As a fan of football, there’s something innately exciting about Cam Newton. He’s got something that Jake Delhomme could never dream of. Nor could Chris Weinke, Matt Moore, nor Jimmy Clausen. Cam has a confidence–a swagger–about him. And justifiably so.

Anyone who watched last Sunday’s game against Arizona could tell you that Cam Newton looked like the real deal. He revived an offense that sputtered to score 12.2 points per game last year–more than four and a half less that 31st placed Cleveland. The offense reached heights not seen since, ironically enough, just before the Arizona playoff game more often remembered as the game Jake really crapped the bed.

Why can't I see Jimmy Clausen making this move to get a TD?

Why can't I see Jimmy Clausen making this move to get a TD?

What made his outing even more impressive was how well he handled pressure. Cards’ coach Ken Whisenhunt threw blitz after blitz trying to confuse Newton, but he felt the heat, stayed cool, and picked apart their secondary. He didn’t depend on his legs. He didn’t force throws. Cam Newton just made the right throw–24 times for 422 yards.

Now no one expects Cam to keep this up. Tom Brady never even through for 400 yards until Monday Night and Michael Vick’s never done it. But even playing competently is a massive upgrade for the Panthers, and it shows that their bright future could be coming sooner rather that later.

So maybe when all’s said and done, the teams that are tanking this year for Andrew Luck really should have tanked last year for Cam Newton.

Week 2 picks; home teams in CAPS.

BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders
Who knew the Bills could play so competently? Better get your Harvard QB jokes in quickly before they take over third place in the AFC East for good.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Bears
Beating the tough Bears D by more than a touchdown is a tall order, but the Saints are tough. They were 12 inches and some good luck away from beating the Packers on the road to start the season after falling behind 0-14. Drew Brees won’t let this team fall to 0-2, not at home.

COLTS (+2.5) over Browns
Imagine telling someone exactly 1 year ago today that the Browns would be favored on the road by 2. They’d probably ask if they were playing the Raiders, Bills, or Bengals, but that would still be somewhat hard to believe. But the Colts? No way. Funny how things change. But in the end, if the Colts want any shot at treading water before Peyton comes back to save my fantasy team Indy’s season, they’ve got to beat Cleveland at home.

LIONS (-8.5) over Chiefs
I’m trying not to fall into this trap. What’s not to like about the Lions? They spent #1 picks on a QB, wideout, running back, and tight end who have all more or less panned out plus the most dominate defensive lineman for the next decade. They have cool new uniforms, a young defensive-minded coach, and a chip on their shoulder. So Vegas pushes their line. But the Chiefs gave up 41 points last year. That’s bad if you’re playing the Patriots. But they were playing the Bills.
One more weird stat: Matt Cassel completed 22 passes against Buffalo–two less than Cam did. But instead of airing it out for 422 yards, he compiled a measly 119 yards. That’s not even 6 yards per completion. Every time he took a snap, the offense averaged 3.3 yards.

Packers (+10.5) over PANTHERS
Watching Cam last week made me consider taking Carolina for a moment. Then I remembered that the Panthers can’t tackle, and they lost their best tackler for the season last week. Joy.

Ravens (-5.5) over TITANS
The Titans couldn’t beat the Luke McCown-led Jags last week.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over VIKINGS
Did you know that Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards against San Diego. No, not 39 yards on the first drive. Just 39 yards. Even Ethan Albright with his 17 throwing power and 16 throwing accuracy could do better. I’d take the Bucs -3.5.

JETS (-10.5) over Jaguars
How many straight weeks can Luke McCown get a shoutout here? I’m sure that’s his biggest lifetime achievement. Either that or succeeding Tim Rattay at Louisiana Tech.

Cardinals (+4.5) over REDSKINS
I still think the Redskins are going to be really, really bad. And, no, you can’t fool me, Rex Grossman. I still know you are a T-R-B-L turrrrrrrible player.

STEELERS (-14.5) over Seahawks
I thought about taking Seattle. Because winning by more than 2 touch downs is tough no matter who’s playing. But they I pictured a terrified Tarvaris Jackson seeing thousands upon thousands of terrible towels being waved as James Harrison stares intensely at him just feet away. And now I’m more than willing to give the Sidney Rice-less Seahawks 14.5 points.

Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS
Just like Sexy Rexy, Alex Smith can’t fool me. Unlike the Redskins, the Niners have some serious talent on both sides of the ball, especially on offnse. However, I really like the ‘Boys this year, and believe it or not, Tony Romo is a really good QB. Just get that image of him fumbling the field goal snap out of your head, that was like totally four years ago.

Bengals (+5.5) over BRONCOS
These teams are so bad, I figure I might as well take the points and a potentially sneaky good offense (AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Cedric Benson) over Kyle Orton and an pretty bad run game. I actually wonder if FOX and CBS punishes their worst announcers with games like these.

Texans (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Did anyone watch last week? That game where the Texans put up 34 on the Colts? Because the Dolphins are no good home or away, and the Texans may just have turned the corner. And you can add Chad Henne to the you-can’t-fool-me group of QBs already mentioned. Am I going to pick against the Dolphins twice in a row at home to open the season as myLance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week? Cracker, please. Wait, that’s racist.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Chargers
Is this line really that big? The Chargers have to fly cross country, and they already are historically slow-starting. Between Brady’s surgeon-like precision and a running game averaging 4.8 yards per carry, New England is just tough to stop. And just wait until Ochocinco and Stevan Ridley get worked into the offense.

FALCONS (+2.5) over Eagles
Just like the Lions game, I’m falling into the trap. I’m giving up too many points because a feel good team with a possibly-over-hyped young quarterback and cool unis has stolen my heart. Roddy White. Michael Turner. Julio Jones. What not to like? Yes, they lost to Chicago last week and play a tougher Eagles team, but they are too good to just roll over the first two weeks.

Rams (+6.5) over GIANTS
I’m breaking my Don’t-Take-NFC-West-Teams-On-The-Road-Out-Of-The-Division rule way too early in the year. But I have a great feeling about Sam Bradford against a beaten-up Giants D, plus Eli Manning isn’t exactly Peyton in the clutch. Wait, that doesn’t make sense, Peyton sucks in the clutch. Either way, Eli definitely isn’t that top-5 QB he said he was. He’s far from even top-15.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 7-9

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 1-0

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Stability is Key

I’ll just get this out of the way from the start: this will be the easiest year to predict games this decade. Sound prisoner-of-the-moment? Say what you want, but it’s true.

Instead of having all summer to run OTAs, integrate rookies into practice with ease, and build rapport naturally, teams only had 7 weeks to prepare for Week 1. That means free agents had just a few weeks to learn their new system, rookies were force-fed playbooks, and the Redskins didn’t have time to realize that both John Beck and Rex Grossman suck.

What this all means is that teams who made slight tweaks to their team will gain a steep advantage to those who had a total overhaul. Teams like the Saints, who ran dozens of team practices, will hardly feel a Lockout Hangover and will be ready to roll from Week 1. On the other hand, teams like the Bengals will be stuck in neutral while rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green try to get on the same page.

For this season, my advice would to be to lean towards teams with stability at quarterback and head coach. So, in other words, not the Jags.

In all, I’m pretty excited for this season of football. And as an offering of good will, I promise not to use the word “lockout” in any future football columns more than once. But for now, it’s time to look ahead. I guarantee I’ll trump last season’s not-too-impressive record by one–if not two–wins. I know it’s a tall order, but I plan on following through.

In other news, Bojangles and I could not come to terms on a one-year extension for rights to my Lock o’ the Week, but I am happy to announce that Lance Crackers has stepped up and struck a deal with me as my unofficial official sponsor. Watch out every week for the Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week, and without further ado, my Week 1 picks. Home teams in CAPS.

Saints (+4.5) over PACKERS
New Orleans is the one team who–more than any other team–ran practices all through summer. The core of the team is the same with tan upgrade of Reggie Bush to Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. They are the ultimate stability team, and there really aren’t any gaping holes to the team. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they steal this one from the defending Super Bowl champs straight up, but of course I’ll take the points, too.

Falcons (-2.5) over BEARS
I just keep looking at this Bears team, and I don’t see a lot to love. About the time you identify Roy Williams and Marion Barber as players who can turn around your offense, I’m selling your stock (which I incidentally already have done on SportsGunner).

CHIEFS (-6.5) over Bills
I don’t especially love the Chiefs this year because they are average at QB and well below average at head coach, regardless of how talented they are at the skill positions. But I really don’t like the Fitzpatrick-Gailey combination. I’m going to need a bit more than 6.5 to take the Bills going into Arrowhead Stadium.

In case you didn't know, only Tom Brady and Big Ben had less interceptions last year than Freeman, at 6.

In case you didn't know, only Tom Brady and Big Ben had less interceptions last year than Freeman, at 6.

BROWNS (-4.5) over Bengals
Do people realize that Andy Dalton is not good? He put up average numbers at TCU. That’s against Wyoming, Colorado State, and UNLV. Just like the previous game, I really don’t like the Browns this year, but the Bengals might not even win 3 games.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Lions
Everyone likes the Lions. Literally. And all this love for a team with a quarterback who can’t stay healthy, a banged-up running back who’s been concussed many times over, and an injured Nick Fairly. I think this is a situation where so many people love this team they’ve flip flopped from very underrated to very overrated. Or the opposite of Josh Freeman. Where did the love for this guy go? He’s really good. Like really, really good.

Titans (+3.5) over JAGUARS
Matt Hasselbeck learning an entirely good system in a handful of weeks scares me, but nothing Luke McCown could ever scare me.

TEXANS (-2.5) over Colts
This is an absolute must-win for the Texans. If they can’t beat Indy with Kerry Collins at the helm, they might as well pack their bags and head to the UFL because they’re never going to win here.

Eagles (-5.5) over RAMS
Even though Eagles are a un-stability team, it’s hard not to like them. It’s also hard not to like the Rams between an emerging star (Bradford) and a horrid division (NFC West), there’s a lot to like. Except that their schedule starts out Philly, at the Giants, Baltimore, Washington, Bye, at Green Bay, at Dallas, and New Orleans. They could conceivably start 1-6. Ouch.

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS
What’s a good rule of thumb for these games? Take the points. But if you need a stronger reason, the Steelers are a tight-nit organization. Not much has changed, they’ve got the better quarterback, and the better coach. Furthermore, James Harrison is ready to rip some throats, to the chagrin of Commissioner Goodell.

Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
We’ve learned two things over Norv Turner’s reign in San Diego: he’s an awful planner, and the Chargers always start out slow. And while I don’t love the Vikings, anyone would be better than Chilly. I’ll take the points and Adrian Peterson.

Giants (-3.5) over REDSKINS
This line really should be closer to 13.5 than 3.5.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Panthers
I really want to take the Panthers. I really do. Admittedly, I do have a rooted interest in Carolina. And I do love me some Cam Newton. But the Panthers just can’t tackle. And Jon Beason might not be playing.

Seahawks (+5.5) over NINERS
These are two teams you should never give up points for. Also, this is the only team the Seahawks will play this year that they will hold an advantage in regards to quarterbacks.

Cowboys (+4.5) over JETS
This game is tough. Really just tough. But in the end, I trust Tony Romo much more than I trust Mark Sanchez, and Jason Garrett has really toughened up this Cowboys team. I have a knack that the ‘Boys will pull this one out, or at least keep it close. Or maybe its just that I secretly hate the Jets deep down.

Patriots (-5.5) over DOLPHINS
I’m confused as to who wrote this line. Everyone knows TFB and The Hoodie never let up during prime time. You can come to my house and take down my TV with a baseball bat if the Pats blow this one. Yeah, this is the first-ever Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

BRONCOS (-0.5) over Raiders
Couldn’t we get a better matchup for the first slate of MNF games? Oh, I’ve got it! First half is Orton vs. Campbell, but the second half is Tebow vs. Pryor. What? Pryor’s suspended? Well how else could we make this game interesting, No Fun League?

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ESPYs Running Diary

Tonight is the 14th annual ESPYs… a very underrated awards show if I do say so myself. Seth Meyers is back to host the show, and I hope you guys enjoy the show as well as my second-ever running diary.

This Guy.

This Guy.

8:11: Brian Wilson and his beard has already stolen the show. Not only is he rocking his now one-year-old beard and a mo-hawk, he’s also in a “seal skin tuxedo suit” (which more closely resembles a uni-tard) with an orange bow-tie. His built-in gloves are “a little dirty because (he got) a little awkward out on the carpet.” He’s also rocking a cougar cane, or his “plus one.” Brian Wilson is something else.

8:14: When asked if he would have done anything differently when he threw and swung at a Gatorade cooler, Wilson said “I would have asked for a metal bat so I could have launched the cooler a little further.” He needs to host SportsNation with the sliding closer Heath Bell some day.

8:16: He just keeps it coming. Wilson was asked if he would be shaving his beard soon and he said, “I probably should shave it soon because I’m probably scaring all the kids at home.” I home he never shaves.

8:17: Mike Greenberg announced Jimmie Johnson is in the running for Male Athlete of the Year. I have a problem with this. Shouldn’t his car be the one up for the award?

8:20: Our first Cam Newton sighting! Looking dapper if I may say so myself. I love how the sideline reporters are asking if they’re more nervous now or during championship games. Really?

8:24: They’re now interviewing the Wounded Warrior Project, who climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro. I’d love to think I could do that, but I can’t. The view from the top has to be incredible, but after reading Into Thin Air, there’s no way I’ll try that.

8:27: Erin Andrews is interviewing Kevin Love and Blake Griffin talking about….. FASHION! And Brian Wilson, of course. Dapper seems to be a popular word tonight because I’ve heard it at least three times in the last 15 minutes.

8:33: Does anyone who watches ESPN want to see an interview with Justin Bieber? Anyone? Nobody? That is, unless A.J. Burnett is coming from behind to pop him in the face with a shaving cream pie. Not that he needs shaving cream.

8:40: By the way, Justin Bieber had the most fraudulent MVP award ever. Worse that Kobe “6-24” Bryant. He scored 8 points on 30% shooting, including missing the game-winning 3-pointer. Not only that, but Scottie Pippen had a couple massive blocks (including one on Bieber), 17 points, and a victory. I hate 12-year-old girls.

8:43: How can Jon Barry be Dirk Nowitzki in Role Play without using a German accent. This is a disgrace…

8:50: No Miller, the best lemonade is not beer lemonade. It’s lemonade lemonade.

8:52: The US Women’s soccer team is going to win so many awards tonight. Thanks, prisoner of the moment fans. No, Abby Wambach is not an American superstar. You wouldn’t recognize her if you passed her in the street. Plus, can you name the player who shot the game winning goal at Lake Placid? Didn’t think so.

9:05: I wonder if Seth Myers will go for any Tiger Woods jokes. Or maybe they’re just too easy. Or Tiger’s just too sympathetic a character at this point for that.

9:07: How did ESPN show Auburn’s championship run without showing Cam Newton? I guess getting on the ESPYs wasn’t part of his $200k deal.

9:09: A lockout joke to open the show. How appropriate. Follow it up with a Brian Wilson joke? I think so.

9:11: “If you remember, last year’s show came days after LeBron James’ decision to go to the Miami Heat, so to make a joke about that would be too easy. So here I go. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh have nicknamed themselves the Big Three because that’s how many quarters they play.” Seth Myers is the man.

9:17: Super happy to hear that the proceeds tonight go to the Los Angeles Dodgers of America. Seth is just rattling off Dodgers jokes… Mark Cuban is really getting a good laugh out of jokes about his future team.

9:21: Lady Gaga’s Born this Way does not belong with Cam Newton, Jose Bautista, Blake Griffin, and Arian Foster. I really want to punch somebody now. Too bad there aren’t any Heatles in the building.

9:25: Just kidding, I love the Heat. How can you ever blame a guy for leaving Cleveland for South Beach…. to play with his best friends. The only thing that made the whole deal better was how angry owner Dan Gilbert’s 13-year old son got when he wrote a letter in Comic Sans to LeBron. Wait, Dan wrote it?

9:31: Chris Boomer’s hairline is really going back, back, back, back…

9:35: I must be the only person who doesn’t like Tim Lincecum’s hair. It’s just really getting out of control. Maybe its the only thing that separates him from looking like a 15-year old.

9:45: Is it really an upset if no one knows what’s going on? Horses shouldn’t be in biggest upset.

9:51: As crazy as Ron Artest–I mean Metta World Peace–is, I think he needs to be a sideline reporter instead of Heather Cox. How much fun would that be? I know he has much more exciting questions that “So Phil, Dirk scored 26 in the first half, do you plan on slowing him down in the second half?” “Uh, yes?”

9:54: Andre from The League is here as the man from the Canadian Kissing Couple! Except he has hair….. but still as creepy!

9:58: In the Top Male College Athlete, they have a hockey player named Dan Niele. I still don’t know what school he played for. And Jimmer won? What did he do? Put up 28 points against Northwest South Dakota Tech?

10:00: The unintentional comedy of Jimmer Fredette’s girlfriend’s outfit is almost unbearable. A black, loose-fitting t-shirt that’s cut off around her neck.

10:01: Our first sideline reporter! Brian Wilson declares he’s a cyborg and “doesn’t need a computer to log on to vote for the Top Play because (he) can do it with (his) brain. It’s science.” I told you he and Ron Artest need to do television!

10:19: Not to sound racist, but it really messes up your motivational speech when you say “I aksed myself…”

10:26: That ESPN commercial about all the Jeff Gordon fans doesn’t make sense. It says “It’s not crazy. It’s sports.” Yet, they’re talking about NASCAR… am I the only one who’s confused?

10:29: Hey NASCAR announcer, is it really unbelievable that Jimmie Johnson won again? Because he’s been cleaning up for the past 5 years. That’s like Nick Faldo two years ago saying he was shocked that Tiger won a tournament. Or this year Nick Faldo saying Tiger is twelve strokes back. Is that really so surprising?

10:36: All respect lost for Lindsay Vonn. She just asked Justin Bieber for a picture for her Facebook page. What did she even do this year? Not win 90-some-straight games…

10:39: Random, but Charlotte has never had so much starpower. Cam Newton. Kemba Walker. Who knows, maybe this city could be the next Detroit. Wait. Nooooooo!

10:47: Dude I can’t wait to sign up for Dirk Nowitzki’s Awkward Basketball Camp. SNL strikes again!

10:49: Butler over Pitt should not be in the conversation for best game. It was the dumbest game. Pitt out-dumbed Butler. Dumb playcalling. Dumb foul calls. Not a Top Game.

10:52: Wait, why aren’t any Giants going up for the Eagles-Giants Top Game? Shouldn’t the Giants punter be up there?

11:03: You’ve got to wonder whether having one leg was ultimately an advantage for Anthony Robles. He can be so much bigger than his competition since he’s missing 15% of his total body weigh.

11:11: I wish that Eduardo Najera would go away!

How can play this not win?!

How can play this not win?!

11:13: If you haven’t seen this YouTube commentary about Marshawn Lynch’s run, you’re really missing out.

11:15: No America No! I shouldn’t be so surprised that you’re such Prisoners of the Moment, but Abby Wambach’s goal was not the best play of the year. It just wasn’t. Oklahoma State’s combo interception was much better, and Marshawn’s is just out of this world.

11:19: Paul Rudd needs to cut his hair. And I’m not going to watch My Idiot Brother.

11:20: Tweet of the Night: this gem from @dougabeles “Giants pitcher Brian Wilson looks like a polaroid negative of Frederick Douglass.”

11:23: Quick question: how was Nick Barnett hoisting a newspaper that said the Packers were champs during the celebration, just moments after the game?

11:25: People really do hate the Heat; Dallas wins another ESPY. You know, there’s really no need to LeBron. He’s not a sellout. He’s a businessman.

11:27: What did we learn tonight? Seth Meyers is hilarious, Brian Wilson is the man, and people still hate LeBron.

I hope you all had as much fun as I did tonight. Look for a post on how to tweak MLB’s All-Star Weekend in the next few days.

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A Way Out of the Lockout

As a passionate baseball fan, I love this time of year. Football and basketball are out of season, and America’s pastime rules supreme in the world of sports. But this year things are a little different. After the Commissioner’s trophy is lifted and a new World Series champion is crowned, I’m not sure if there will be an NFL or NBA season. We might be on the brink of the quietest sports winter in decades.

But being the eternal optimist that I am, I don’t think we’ll miss a single Tom Brady pass, a single LeBron James alley-oop. With so much money on the table, things should work themselves out sooner rather than later. Now I have no facts to back this up, no inside sources to fall back on. I just have to hope for the best and wait it all out.

As of this morning, however, the previously dismal NBA lockout situation looks to have taken a sudden turn for the better. As first reported by ESPN.com’s Marc Stein, Deron Williams will be taking his talents to Istanbul. For about $5 million, the All-Star point guard will play with Besiktas until the lockout ends, when he can opt out of his contract.

We’ve seen American players make the pilgrimage to Europe (most recently Josh Childress and Brandon Jennings), but never before have we seen a star make the move. Kobe Bryant has talked about playing across the pond, and the Greek club Olympiakos reportedly considered offering LeBron upwards of $50 million annually. But that was all chatter. Deron Williams is the first star to walk the walk.

The name of the game in negotiations is leverage. Says filmmaker Brett Ratner, “No matter how successful you are, you are not invincible. The studio is writing the checks. It`s all about leverage and who has the power. The goal is to get the biggest deal you can, because you are going to have to give something back to the studios anyway.” I’m not sure if Mr. Ratner has ever picked up a basketball in his life, but that sure applies to this lockout.

Before the NBA Players Association had the threat of star players leaving to play overseas, there’s not much they had to hold over the heads of the owners. Sure, owners would be missing out on selling $50 nosebleed tickets and $8 dollar beers, but when the minimun-salary players started missing paychecks, they would cave quicker than the billionaire owners. But now? Not so fast.

Do you think a team with Deron Williams and Kobe Bryant might win the Turkish League?

Do you think a team with Deron Williams and Kobe Bryant might win the Turkish League?

Expect more and more players like Deron Williams to start heading to the Euro League and Asia. The level of risk remains low–the injury risk is the same as if they’d be practicing in the states–and they’ll be making money playing basketball. They’ll stay in better shape that if they just ran organized practices like many of the NFL teams, and they have no commitment to their team once the lockout ends. Really, what is there to lose?

The trump card the owners had was that the bottom half of the league would start severely missing their paychecks around November. But now, these Garrett Temple-type players can make the move to a Spanish League team and make some money until the league opens back up.

For now, I have to believe that the momentum has swung towards the players. Remember, in the NHL lockout, over 350 players went overseas to play. Now of course, the percentage of foreign players in the NHL far exceeds that of the NBA, but there is still a major foreign influence across the league. Williams’ new team has made it known that they will target more NBA players, specifically Kobe Bryant. And once the dominos start falling, a mass migration of basketball players is not out of the question.

Williams’ move is the first of many to come. Will two All-Stars playing in Turkey make the owners rush to a less friendly deal? No. But could half the league playing overseas massively expedite this painful process? Absolutely.

The ball is now in the court of NBAPA executive director Billy Hunter. If he can encourage players to leave for Greece, Spain, China, and Israel, he could amount enough crucial leverage to end this lockout before the momentum of last season is gone. I’m not rooting for the players, and I’m not rooting for the owners. What I want to see–and what I’m guessing most fans want to see–is a resolution and more basketball. And if playing in Turkey is what it’ll take, I’m fully on board.

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NBA Draftermath: The Most Sneaky Good Pick of the Night

Finding someone who thought the 2011 NBA Draft was a good one is harder than finding someone who thinks Casey Anthony was innocent. Whoops. But just because it was a historically weak draft, that doesn’t make it short on talent, as discussed before.

One thing that really made this draft stand out was the influx of foreign talent. Six of the first seven draftees were born outside of the US (Kyrie Irving – Australia, Enes Kanter – Switzerland, Tristan Thompson – Canada, Jonas Valanciunas – Lithuania, Jan Vesely – Czech Republic, and Bismack Biyombo – Congo). This made for an even more confusing draft because no matter how many scouting reports and grainy YouTube videos you watch of these foreign talents, it’s near impossible for the average fan to gauge how bright their futures will be.

Luckily for the fans, however, the NBA teams know what they’re doing when it comes to the draft. They pour hour after hour and dollar after dollar into scouting to figure out Donatas Motiejunas will be Darko Milicic or Nikoloz Tskitishvili. I mean Mouhamad Sene or Yi Jianlian. I mean Yaroslav Korolev or… gah I give up. Teams shell out hundreds upon hundreds of man hours to find out who will be the next star in each draft. At least, that’s what we’d like to think.

Some front offices are what I like to call “fundamentally challenged,” for example Minnesota. Fundamental stuff like, you know, don’t draft two point guards in the top five of the same draft.

Some front offices are what I like to call “needy drafters,” like Philly and New York this year. Each team had a need they desperately needed to fill (size and defense), so they both reached for borderline first-round players (Nikola Vucevic and Iman Shumpert) while drafting in the teens. Tell me when reaching ever worked out.

So here we have arrived at the 2011 NBA Draft, full of intrigue, promise, and mystery. The draft is undoubtedly most important for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who look to finally be able to turn the page from LeBron’s Decision to the new chapter in Cleveland Sports. By hook or by crook, the Cavs landed the first and fourth picks in the draft, which, again, comes in the worst draft potentially since 2000.

The first pick was easy. Sure, they really hurt on the wings and could use the potential of a Derrick Williams, but there’s no way they could pass on Kyrie Irving, the scintillating point guard out of Duke. But as Williams and Enes Kanter came of the board 2-3 to Minnesota and Utah, the Cavaliers were suddenly faced with a tough choice with the fourth pick.

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Even if Valanciunas wouldn't help the Cavs this year, were they really going anywhere with him?

Everyone agrees that this draft is chock full of international talent. Not everyone agrees, however, with who the best player from overseas is. Some, including myself, like Kanter. He’s big. He’s rough. He’s polished. Some like Jan Vesely, an extremely athletic forward who has everything you look for in a perimiter player except a jump shot. But as the draft drew closer, eyes started turning to Lithuanian seven-footer Jonas Valanciunas.

Just 18 years old, Valanciunas started putting on a show for his Euro League team and has all of the physical skills to find success. With a great motor, proficiency in the pick-and-roll game, and a soft touch around the rim, there’s not much to dislike about him. But there’s just one problem–he has a sticky buyout situation that will prevent him from playing in the 2011-12 NBA season.

So here sit the Cavaliers. They had reportedly fallen head over heels for Valanciunas, even putting him above Kanter on their draft board, but the buyout could pose a dilemma. Which is more important: taking the better player and waiting a year, or taking a lesser talent who will help out immediately.

The Cavaliers made a mistake. Not only did they pass up potentially the best player in the entire draft, but they reached a good bit to take an even riskier player, Tristan Thompson. If you told someone at the beginning of the college basketball season that Tristan Thompson would be the fourth pick in the draft, you’d be laughed at. If you told someone during March Madness that Tristan Thompson would be in the conversation for the top five draft picks, you wouldn’t have even been dignified with a response.

I don’t want to knock Mr. Thompson too much because I believe he can be an effective roll player. With that being said, I think Cleveland could have gotten the exact same productivity with the man who was drafted 22nd overall, Kenneth Faried. Thompson will never make an All-Star game. He’s a little to small, a little to offensively inept. If he waited until next year to enter the draft, he’d need an incredible amount of luck or a preposterous string of injuries to make it back to the lottery.

Just hours before the draft commenced, word came out of the Raptors’ camp that they thought they had found their franchise center, a mysterious young international player with huge upside: Bismack Biyombo. There’s no way they thought Valanciunas would still be on the board; they had already looked ahead for the next best option. To their utmost surprise, their man was still on the board–I’m sure they wanted to send in their pick as soon as they heard Thompson’s name announced by David Stern.

Some Raptors fans will complain about their newest player. After all, he won’t score a single point, grab a single rebound, or block a single shot for the 2011 Raptors. But I actually think this is a good thing. I can’t think of a better scenario for the Raptors.

It’s been said by many basketball experts, “The worst place you can be is in the middle of the pack. You need to get bad to be good.” To use the phrase first used by Bobcats Baseline‘s ASChin, every team needs to escape the Nottery, a place where franchises go to die: Not good enough to be good and not bad enough to get good.

As long as you’re stuck in a small market, the only way to improve is through the draft. And as long as you’re stuck at the back of the lottery, you’ll never find a franchise-changing player. You need to become very bad to get good, or just very lucky.

Right now, I would classify the Raptors as very bad. If Andrea Bargnani is their signature player, I think that’s all that needs to be said, but just a quick perusing through their roster should probably upset your stomach. Amir Johnson. Ed Davis. James Johnson. Ugh. Even Lindsay Lohan has more talent. (Side note: is she talented in that she’s rich because she has no talents? Does that count as a talent? Hand me an Aspirin, please).

Now that the Raptors essentially added no players for next season through the draft, they immediately become the worst team in the league, just a level above the Bobcats, Raptors, Cavs, and Kings. They’ll presumably end up with another top-five draft pick–likely even higher–in the best draft to come around since 2003. Genius. Now the Raptors will have a stud center and a stud wing (Harrison Barnes or Perry Jones, perhaps) starting on a rookie contract next year.

Now let’s imagine Cleveland remained patient and took Valanciunas, while the Raptors snatch up Biyombo. The big man from the Congo immediately makes a difference on the defensive end and allows Bargnani to roam freely around the perimeter, where he is more comfortable. All of a sudden, Toronto isn’t a bottom-five team any more. Harrison Barnes isn’t coming north of the border. Suddenly, the Raptors are getting stuck in the Nottery. They’re just good enough to be bad, not bad enough to get good.

I’d also like to point out that this in an ingenious way to hold onto your job if you are a GM on brink of losing your job (cough cough Brian Colangelo). Toronto can’t fire him at the end of the season, his stud prospect hasn’t come over from Europe yet. The Raptors aren’t bad because Colangelo made a bad move, they’re bad because Valanciunas hasn’t arrived yet; you can’t fire a man who’s plan hasn’t yet been played out.

Is the a passive-aggressive form of tanking? Maybe. But who’s going to be laughing when the Raptors trot out a lineup of Jerryd Bayless, DeMar DeRozan, Harrison Barnes, Andrea Bargnani, and Jonas Valanciunas? Give Toronto a few years and GM Brian Colangelo’s patience will pay off with a young, talented roster headed to the playoffs instead of another fruitless trip to the draft lottery.

Categories: NBA | Leave a comment

NBA Draftermath: Getting to the Point

Many people like to say that love is a battlefield. I, however, like to think of the basketball court as a battlefield.

You need to out-duel the opponent, which is best done with teamwork and preparation rather than a loose group of rogue combatants. The field general in nearly every scenario is the point guard making him the most important player on the court.

The field general is not the most powerful soldier. In most cases, you won’t see him shed a drop of blood–but he calls the shots. Likewise, the point guard is rarely the leading scorer on his team–just four teams’ leading scorers played the point last year–but they are the primary ball-handler and distributor.

These generals need three key characteristics: poise under pressure, an ability to make teammates better, and most importantly the winning gene. A sweet shooting stroke is nice. Behind-the-back, no-look passes are nice. But what really matters is the ability to put your team on your back when it matters most and just flat out win the ballgame.

So as the newest draft class enters the now-locked out National Basketball Association, there is, as always, wild chatter about who the biggest flop will be, which team got the best sleeper, and how on Earth you pronounce those Lithuanian forwards’ names (it’s phonetic).

No one can be certain what these players’ futures hold, but what we can do is break down each player’s game to see what will best translate to the next level. The Class of 2011 had four point guards taken in the top ten: Duke’s Kyrie Irving, Kentucky’s Brandon Knight, UConn’s Kemba Walker, and BYU’s Jimmer Fredette. The draft as a whole was weak, but I believe the class of 1-guards has some potential. At least, some of the point guards have potential. Let’s dive in.

Kyrie Irving

I wonder if Kyrie will be as good as the last Cavs' #1 pick...

I wonder if Kyrie will be as good as the last Cavs' #1 pick...

Eleven games in college or not, there was little doubt on my behalf that this young man was worthy of the first overall selection in this June’s NBA Draft. He’s got NBA size, NBA vision, and NBA quickness. What’s even more impressive is that he joined a Duke squad fresh off a National Championship with two senior leaders (Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), yet instantly became the definitive leader and scorer for the team.

Irving withstood a freak toe injury that left him out until March Madness, but when he returned, he seemed to have barely skipped a beat. In just 20 minutes, he scored 14 points on 4-8 shooting (2-2 from three and 4-4 free throws) with 4 rebounds, an assist, 2 steals, and a block in a 42-point romp of Hampton. Irving followed that performance with an 11-2-3-1 line, including shooting 9-10 from the charity stripe. Irving cemented himself as the clear-cut number one pick when he dropped 28 points in 31 minutes–shooting 9-15, 2-4, and 8-9–in Duke’s Sweet Sixteen exit to Arizona.

Yes, the case can be made that entering Irving into Duke’s lineup upset the team’s chemistry with Smith’s suddenly uncertain role off the ball, but that was much more to do with his prolonged absence than any problem with his attitude. At the start of the season, the offense flowed straight through the freshman guard. He was a true leader in every sense of the word: he’s a great distributor, he made every single one of his teammates better, and rarely forced unnecessarily risky passes. Overall, it’s just hard to poke holes in his game.

Kyrie isn’t athletic like former number one selections Derrick Rose and John Wall, but he can more than make up for it with his great quick burst to the basket and elite shooting (he was a 50-40-90 shooter in his limited collegiate career). Irving is most effective when he drives to the left side, but scoring isn’t his biggest threat–he’s most dangerous when he gets his teammates involved.

What makes Irving special is not what makes him unique–there’s not much that separates him from the upper tier of point guards. What makes Irving so great is that he’s such a safe pick–there’s no way he fails in the NBA. We’ve seen his skill set translate to success so many times before (Chris Paul, Andre Miller, and Raymond Felton just to name a few). He’s probably the safest pick in the draft because he will be a very productive pro–likely All-Star caliber, however, with the abundance of great young point guards he may not make too many All-Star appearances–but at the same time he has the potential of a top-5 one-guard.

From what we’ve seen at Duke and just his play in general, we can see that he gets it. He’s a true leader and embraces the team aspect of basketball. As soon as he stepped onto the court, he made each and every one of his teammates more dangerous, and was never afraid of the spotlight at one of college basketball’s biggest programs. Kyrie Irving is the type of player I want in my foxhole. He’s the guy I want on my team.

Brandon Knight

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If you had to trust any type of rookie point guard, wouldn't it be a Calipari one?

Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans. John Wall. Brandon Knight? The next player in a succession of John Calipari-coached one-and-done guards has arrived, so we can pen him in for a Rookie of the Year, right? Not so fast.

Ranked as high as #1 by Rivals.com recruiting, Knight has been closely monitored for the longest time. Immediately as a freshman at Kentucky, he was handed the keys to the Caddy, but the start was a bit rough for him.

In his first seven games, Knight averaged 17 points per game, but totaled just 21 points in losses to UConn and UNC on 29% shooting. Worse yet, he had just 23 assists to 33 turnovers. While the turnover problem slowly started to fade as the season progressed, it reared its ugly head again in the NCAA tournament when he maintained a 17-16 assist-to-turnover ratio against non-Ivy League schools. Therein lies Knight’s problem: he’s not a true point guard.

As a pure scorer alone, Brandon Knight is very impressive. While he can be streaky at times, he’s already fairly reliable from NBA-3-point range and is great in the penetrate-and-kick game thanks to an explosive first step. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have shooting guard size. And he is not a shooting guard. I’m afraid that Brandon Knight is actually a combo guard.

Can you win with a combo guard? Sure. My preferences for point guards aren’t the end-all-be-all, and if in the right scenario, a combo guard can lead a team to a championship. But it’s so much harder.

Positions aside, there’s one thing Knight does do extremely well: he’s cool under pressure. By the end of the season, if the Wildcats were down a bucket in the waning seconds of the game, everybody new who was taking the shot–Brandon Knight. He became so steady at the end of games that even announcers would start to call it “Knight Time.”

There’s a lot to like about Brandon Knight. He’s smart, he’s mature, and he has all the skills in the world. But I’m not sure how much better he makes his teammates. With potentially the most talented roster in the NCAA, he flopped in the biggest game of the season when he jacked up 23 shots and finishing with just 17 points. Not only that, but he had 5 assists to 3 turnovers and took just two free throws. Taking 37% of your team’s shots is fine if you can score in flurries, but that’s not who Brandon Knight is.

I know it’s just one season, and I know he’s just 19, but I don’t see it in Brandon Knight. He didn’t step up when the light shined brightest, and I don’t really think he made his teammates too much better. I’m not even sure if he’s a winner as much as he is a stat sheet guy. One check out of three doesn’t work for me. I’m passing on Brandon Knight.

Kemba Walker

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Every team can use a tenacious leader with a winning mentality, especially the Bobcats.

When asked how to describe himself, Kemba Walker said, “Character, leadership, just heart. All New York City point guards are just tough.” Better words could not have been spoken.

Kemba Walker is one tough dude. I’ll get straight to the point and say that he is a warrior, a leader, and flat out winner. His size (6’1″) doesn’t stop him. His less-than-efficient shooting doesn’t get in his way. Because when the lights shine brightest on the biggest stage, Kemba is always there.

To say the least, UConn’s 2011 Men’s Basketball team was not that high on talent. After Walker, there really wasn’t much to work with. Jeremy Lamb may eventually be a first-round pick, and Alex Oriakhi is a serviceable big man, but there’s a reason why this team did not start the season in the AP Top 25: on paper, they are a really thin team. So off set Kemba Walker to prove to the world just how good his team actually was.

At the Maui Invitational, UConn looked really overmatched. With then-number 2 Michigan State and number 9 Kentucky, UConn was a small fish in a tank of sharks. So how did Kemba respond? 30 points per game, a 54-42-93 shooting line, a 12-6 assist-to-turnover ratio, and more importantly three tough wins.

By the end of the regular season, Connecticut was really being knocked around. A shaky 9-9 record in the brutal Big East didn’t help their 21-9 record, but a strong Big East Tournament run would really have helped their seeding in March Madness. Kemba’s move? Five big wins in five short days in which they played higher ranked opponents in four of the games. Again, Kemba stepped up under pressure for 26 ppg while shooting 47% from the field while gave us the coolest buzzer-beater of the year.

Kemba had already lighted up Madison Square Garden, ran through the Big East Tournament, and put himself square in the middle of the Player of the Year conversation, but this was truly the time for him to shine. Did he come through again? I guess you can just ask the net from the National Championship and President Obama.

When the stars shine brightest, you can bet Kemba Walker will be there. In the biggest six-game series of his life, Kemba put up 23.5 points, 5.7 assists, and 6 rebounds, missing just four free throws the entire tournament.

The man is electric fast. The man is clutcher than Kirk Gibson on a broken leg. The man was able to take a ragtag team to a 14-0 record on neutral court and a National Championship. If nothing else, he’s a winner.

There are some doubts that Kemba will ever make an All-Star Game. He’s small for a point guard. He’s shown flashes of being a scorer more than a distributor. But I can see past his small blemishes to see the bigger picture–he has the one thing you can never doubt in any sports: the Heart of a Champion

Jimmer Fredette

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No, Jimmer is not a good comp to (enter white basketball player's name here).

There’s not a single player in the last decade of college basketball who has received as much hype as Jimmer Fredette. Did Jimmer Mania grow to such outrageous proportions because he’s the first white player to dominate the sport in years? Is it because he is one of the few players not to leave after his first season for greener pastures in the NBA? Or maybe it’s just because he has a strangely captivating name and a rarely duplicated game.

I know, I know, how could anyone hate the great Jimmer Fredette? He took BYU, of all schools, to a 32-5 record while scoring 28.5 ppg. But I’m here to burst your bubble. Because Jimmer will not be a good pro.

What if I gave you an offer for a player to add to your team. He doesn’t play defense, he won’t rebound, and he’ll take a third of your total shots. Even if he shoots the lights out, that doesn’t sound like a great team player in my books.

What if I told you now that he’s only 6’2″, can’t jump, is rather slow, and doesn’t see the floor well. Now you’re cornered. You’ve got a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. He can’t defend 2-guards, but he doesn’t have the requisite skills to play the point.

One of the telling signs about Jimmer’s future was in the draft telecast itself. Where it said “Versitile Scorer” for Kyrie Irving, “Defensive Potential” for Brandon Knight, and “Tough Competitor” for Kemba Walker, it said “Capable Passer” for Jimmer. No, not “Good Passer.” Just capable. I’m a capable Bio student. That doesn’t put me in the top level in anything. And a “Capable Passer” won’t put you in anyone’s starting lineup.

With those shots being fired, I do think there’s a place for Jimmer in this league. Just take a look at not-quite-6′ J.J. Barea, who played a vital role in the Mavericks’ championship run. Every team needs a burst of offense off the bench, and I think Jimmer can play a Eddie House-type role. Good enough to help you if his jumper is falling, but if he’s cold, you can just yank him from the game.

I really wish that Jimmer had been drafted by Utah. He could have slid right into that Eddie House role behind Devin Harris with the entire state of Utah behind him. But, no. He ended up in the worst scenario possible: Sacramento.

The last thing Jimmer needed was to be put under this kind of pressure. Already with the pressure to be the next Great White Star–whether or not we accept that this is what we want him to be–he was moved to a team that needs a turnaround city to avoid moving to SoCal. Worse yet, he has been placed with the worst set of teammates to match his style.

Sacramento drafted Jimmer because they needed a point guard to take over now that it’s clear Tyreke Evans isn’t a point guard. The problem is, Jimmer isn’t a true point guard. Jimmer needs his shots to be effective, and so does Tyreke. And DeMarcus Cousins. And Marcus Thornton. And when they don’t get their share of shots, the group of 20-some year olds will pout.

Jimmer is not a point guard. He cannot distribute. He doesn’t make his teammates better. And now that he’s not being fed a steady diet of Vermont, UTEP, and Buffalo, I’m certain he doesn’t have the Winning Gene.

I’ve looked at his game up and down, and I just don’t see a place for Jimmer in this league as a starting point guard. The eighth man on a contender? Maybe. But not worth the tenth pick in any draft.

Categories: College Basketball, NBA | 4 Comments

The Day I Saw Bryce Harper

There’s no doubting his ability. There’s no doubt he’ll be great when he hits The Show. But my only question about Bryce Harper is whether he’ll let the money get to his head.

As he continues his tour through Single-A baseball, Bryce Harper came through Kannapolis, North Carolina for a Memorial Day series. It isn’t too often that a top-flight prospect comes through the Charlotte area, so I made the 45-minute drive down 1-85 to Fieldcrest Cannon Stadium and got to catch 14-innings of baseball for just $8, just another reason to love minor league baseball.

At the 1:05 start, the game seems like just another Minor League matchup. A modest crowd of 2,334 fans maneuver their way into their scorching seats on a 94 degree afternoon with a glove, bottle of water, and sunscreen in hand.

You may question his ethic, but there's no doubting his skills

You may question his ethic, but there's no doubting Bryce Harper's out-of-this-world skills

But this isn’t an ordinary Single-A game. That much is clear when a 6’3″ 18-year-old steps out of the dugout and immediately elicits a parade of calls from fans of all ages. “Bryce!” “Mr. Harper!” “Hey!” There are even a few younger fans who didn’t quite realize the magnitude of this player’s appearance who call out “Number 34!”

Without batting an eye, Harper heads off to right field to run, throw, and play two-ball with his teammates. The man knows he’s a star already. I just hope he doesn’t let his persona consume him.

Young professional athletes are almost always hard-headed, but what happens if you give them $9.9 million before they can legally vote? The only thing you can hope for is that they continue their work ethic that got them that far. Luckily, he seems to be keeping his tough mindset, saying “You have to take it like you’re a catcher out there … I’m just going to go out there and do what I do every day. Just go out there and win.”

What I saw in Harper from ten rows back was unlike other player I’ve seen. He’s smooth in the field. He walks with swagger. At the flick of his bat he sends the ball rocketing into the outfield grass. But sometimes among this sleekness, it doesn’t always appear that he is putting out his best effort.

There are times when he chases first-pitch curves in the dirt, times when he hacks at 3-0 fastballs, times when he jogged out a poorly hit ball.

There’s 9.9 million reasons why Bryce Harper is the next big thing in Major League Baseball; you can look at any of the thousands of articles written about his unheard of power and tremendous arm strength. But we must remember that he’s still a kid with a ways to go before the majors. And let’s make sure he can handle the spotlight.

Categories: MLB | Leave a comment

2011 NBA Mock Draft 1.1

In case you missed my mock lottery, here is my full 2011 Mock Draft. There may not be a John Wall to this draft, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be quality players throughout the first round. Let’s dive into the world of mock basketball…

1

Cleveland-03-pres

Kyrie Irving

PG 6’4” 191 lbs Duke 19 Years Old

The Cavaliers have a ton of holes to fill, and even if point guard isn’t the most pressing need, Irving is the best pick with their first of two picks. Irving is the safest pick in the draft–he’ll almost assuredly become a many time All-Star. He’s not quite at the level of John Wall, but he has a a more reliable jump shot. He’s a fantastic passer and an excellent leader. Cleveland needs a new beginning, and Kyrie is the perfect player to grow the franchise around.

Cleveland could look at Derrick Williams for the first pick and go with Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker with the second pick if they’re sold on one of the two point guards. They desperately need a wing player, and Williams would fit the bill, but I think that ultimately Irving’s superior skill will prevail.

2

Minnesota-08-pres

Enes Kanter

C 6’11” 260 lbs Kentucky 1

There’s no doubt Minnesota wants to trade this pick. David Kahn can come out and say whatever he wants, but they are in an awkward position with this pick. Derrick Williams is clearly the best player after Irving, but the T-Wolves’ best two players, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, play Williams’ position. Williams is a bit of a tweener, but I see him as more of a slashing three than a four. To make matters worse, Minnesota has already invested a lot in two more young forwards: Anthony Randolph–another tweener– and Wesley Johnson, who is playing out of position at shooting guard.

In the case that Kahn can’t move the pick, Kanter is the best fit. I firmly believe that if he was allowed to play at Kentucky, he’s be considered the second best player in the draft, and he showed some of his high potential at the draft combine. Kanter is a immediately a huge upgrade over Darko Milicic at center–he’s already a better rebounder, shooter, and passer than the 7-foot Serbian–and he’ll help a very nice young frontcourt.

Look for a team like Utah, Washington, or Charlotte, who all have two high first rounders, to try to move up to the second pick and take Williams.

3

Jazz-Logo-2010

Derrick Williams

SF 6’9” 249 lbs Arizona 20

Utah will be absolutely ecstatic if Williams falls to them with the third pick. They’ll need a small forward to replace Andrei Kirilenko, and Williams will a perfect fit in Utah. After Williams measured taller than expected at the combine, some see him as a power forward, but I just can’t buy it. I don’t think he’s big enough to guard the Zach Randolphs and Carlos Boozers of the league. Alongside Derrick Favors, Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap, Williams will help form one of the best young frontcourts in the league.

In case Williams is gone, the Jazz will almost certainly pick Brandon Knight. It’s a little uncertain how much longer Devin Harris will be around, and they’ll need a point guard of the future. Knight and Harris should be able to work together with their above-average size and scoring ability.

4

Cleveland-03-pres

Jan Vesely

F 6’11” 240 lbs Czech Republic 2

The Cavs really hope Enes Kanter falls to them here, but in this scenario, they’ll go international. The choice comes down to athletic forward Jan Vesely or Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas. Some scouts see Valanciunas as the top international player in the draft, but he he has a big buyout with his Euro team and could have a Ricky Rubio-style delay to his NBA career. Vesely, on the other hand, is incredibly athletic–unlike any other European big man to come over in a long time. The man is a vicious slasher and will be ready to contribute right away.

The problem with Vesely is that his position in the NBA is slightly unclear. I don’t see him as being tough enough to guard the Amar’e-type players (yes, I know it’s a European stereotype), but he doesn’t have refined outside shot. I think that if the Cavs select him, they will play him at the three alongside J.J. Hickson and depend on him to carry a large portion of the scoring load.

5

Toronto-08-pres

Brandon Knight

PG 6’3” 177 lbs Kentucky 18

Most people don’t see Knight falling this far, and Toronto will snatch him up if he’s available at five. He’s surprisingly mature for an eighteen-year-old and showed an uncanny knack for last-minute clutch. Yes, the Raptors just traded for Jerryd Bayless and already has an expensive starter in Jose Calderon, but Knight has a much higher potential. I think that Bayless will be able to work alongside Knight in the future (or off the bench), but Calderon will be headed out of Toronto–probably for fifty cents on the dollar.

Jonas Valanciunas could also make sense here as a nice compliment to the more perimeter-based Andrea Bargnani, and Kawhi Leonard would fit a more pressing need, but both are slight stretches. The most effective way to build a winner is to take the best available player, and that’s what Toronto would be doing here.

6

WashingtonWizards

Kawhi Leonard

SF 6’7” 228 lbs San Diego St. 20

Watching the Wizards last season, it was pretty clear that they seriously lacked awareness and effort. No offense to Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, and Nick Young, but they aren’t the smartest players around. The young team really needs help on the wing–specifically a player who can play quality defense and just play smart basketball. That guy would be Kawhi Leonard.

Leonard is a late riser in this draft–he really only shot up most team’s draft boards before the combine when his wingspan measured a freakish 7’3″ and he silenced doubters about his shooting ability. The Wizards got new uniforms and want a fresh start to their franchise. Kawhi will provide a much needed change with his non-stop motor and tenacious D. While he will likely never become a star, Leonard will be a productive pro for years to come, and that’s all you can ask for in this shallow draft.

7

Sacramento-94-pres

Kemba Walker

PG 6’1” 184 lbs UConn 20

The Kings certainly don’t regret taking Tyreke Evans fourth overall in 2009, but he’s not going to be the answer at point guard. So now Sacramento desperately needs someone to run the point because Beno Udrih and Pooh Jeter is definitely not the answer. With Brandon Knight off the board, Kemba Walker is the best option and really the perfect fit for this club. He’s got star power, great instincts, and the heart of a champion.

Although most teams prefer Knight to Walker, I would rather draft Kemba. He’s not as small as his doubters thought (6’1″ instead of 5’11”), and he’s shown throughout his college career that he can be a good distributor. I see a lot of Brandon Jennings in Walker, only Walker is a proven winner. The man is an fantastic leader and incredibly inspiring–a guy you want in you foxhole. He’s a quality character, which will be a change from his potential teammates, Evans and DeMarcus Cousins.

8

Detroit-05-pres

Jonas Valanciunas

PF 6’10” 230 lbs Lithuania 19

Detroit could go all sorts of directions with this pick. They have so many holes right now as a team trying to rebuild while still handing out awful contracts (Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva for a combined $95 million over five years) that they really need to go best available here. The most skilled player left on the board at this point is Valanciunas. He’s far more skilled offensively than Bismack Biyombo, but like Detroit’s current center Greg Monroe, is a bit weak on defense.

To be honest, the Pistons are really in trouble. They could really use a wing player, but it would be a huge reach to take Alec Burks or Jordan Hamilton. My guess is the stash Valanciunas in Europe for a year (assuming they can’t buy him out) and gun for a high pick in next year’s absolutely stacked draft. I know this won’t make Pistons fans happy, but watching Monroe, Valanciunas, and Harrison Barnes in two years will.

9

Charlotte-07-pres

Bismack Biyombo

C 6’9” 243 lbs Congo 18

All year, the Bobcats lacked a center. Nazr Mohammad wasn’t that effective, Gana Diop went down with a torn Achillies, and Kwame Brown was Kwame Brown. As luck would have it, Michael Jordan’s guy may have fallen right in his lap. Bismack Biyombo may be short for a center, but he’s got a man body and an utterly ridiculous 7’7″ wingspan. Plus he’s only 18 (we think).

Under new coach Paul Silas, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson proved that they can be building blocks to a rebuilding team. Add an elite defensive center in Biyombo, Tyrus Thomas, Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, and a second first-round pick and this team may not be that far off from the playoffs. Well, maybe after another lottery pick in 2012 they’ll be close to the playoffs.

10

Milwaukee-06-pres

Tristan Thompson

PF 6’9” 228 lbs Texas 20

The Bucks are set for the next five plus years at center and point guard with Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings. And that’s about it. They need serious help on the wings and at the four, so just like the Pistons they’ll go best available. Tristan Thompson fits the bill at number 10 as a highly recruited freshman with high upside. One of the biggest knocks on Thompson was that he was undersized, but he measured an extra inch taller at the draft combine and has a very nice 7’1″ wingspan.

Thompson is by far the best player available at this point, but they could also take a look at Alec Burks if they really want an upgrade on the wing. Still, it will be hard to pass up such an athletic rebounder with nice potential; I’d be shocked if Thompson fell out of the top 10.

11

Golden-State-97-pres

Jordan Hamilton

SF 6’9” 229 lbs Texas 20

The Warriors need frountcourt help and a small forward, but there really aren’t many good options around. Jordan Hamilton fits the biggest need, but his biggest strength is his offense, which is not a problem at all in Golden State. Donatas Motiejunas would fit the need for size, but he is even more offensively minded than Hamilton. Marcus Morris is a nice defender, but he would for a very undersized frontcourt alongside 6’9″ bigman David Lee and 6’10” Ekpe Udoh and has a fairly limited upside.

Ultimately, I think Hamilton’s potential will prevail. He was the sixth highest recruit in a class that included John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors. He’s a pinpoint long-range shooter. And he’s just 20 years old. The Warriors may try to move back, but I doubt they find a taker.

12

Jazz-Logo-2010

Jimmer Fredette

G 6’3” 196 lbs BYU 22

Believe it or not, Jimmer is not actually a lock to stay in state. If they Jazz don’t address their backcourt need with their first pick, they’ll most likely take either Jimmer or Alec Burks at #12. The reason I give the edge to Fredette is that I think GM Kevin O’Connor really likes last year’s first-rounder Gordon Hayward as a future starter at shooting guard, and they need a scoring threat off the bench. Oh yeah, and because there would be riots in Salt Lake City if the Jazz didn’t take their hometown hero.

In my opinion, I don’t get the hype over Jimmer. He’s an undersized shooting guard who doesn’t rebound, is allergic to defense, and doesn’t distribute well. He’s too slow and doesn’t see the floor well enough to be a point guard and isn’t big or athletic enough to play the 2-guard. He doesn’t have a true position, and I don’t think he can create his own shot. He’s not as good as J.J. Redick, who can barely find a job as a three-point specialist. So if you want an Eddie House-type player with a lottery pick, fine. But if you’re expecting the second coming of Steve Nash, you’re out of luck.

13

Phoenix-00-pres

Alec Burks

SG 6’6” 193 lbs Colorado 19

Phoenix would snatch up Jimmer if he was still around (think back to their affection of Stephen Curry two years ago), but if not they’ll look for help on the wings. Vince Carter won’t be around for much longer, but Phoenix may have a Vince-lite in Alec Burks. The man has great athleticism and nice size, but lacks a great jump shot. If Vince is back for another season, Burks could sit behind him for a season to learn from the veteran. Burks won’t be a starter for a year or two, but he has the potential to be a Tracy McGrady-type player.

If Phoenix decides to go big, Donatas Motiejunas would be the best fit. He can play in their Run ‘N Gun system and will add some much needed size. In the end, I think this pick comes down to whoever the Jazz pass on: Jimmer Fredette or Alec Burks.

14

Houston

Donatas Motiejunas

PF/C 7’0” 220 lbs Lithuania 19

Daryl Morey is one of the smartest GMs in the NBA because he knows how to build a winner: buy low and take the top talent in the draft. They are set for years to come at power forward with Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and Jordan Hill, and they are set on the wings between Kevin Martin, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, and Terrence Williams. With Yao likely done, Brad Miller really starting to show his age and Hasheem Thabeet barely holding onto a roster spot, the Rockets could really use a center.

In the entire draft, there really aren’t many true centers. Kanter and Biyombo will be long gone, and otherwise there is a surplus of forwards. Not exactly what Houston is looking for, but they love talent, and boy does Donatas Motiejunas have talent. He’s a very nice scorer for his size and would compliment the more aggressive big men on the roster. Think Andrea Bargnani redux.

15

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Marcus Morris

PF 6’9” 230 lbs Kansas 21

Indiana is a young team on the rise that is missing one piece (before they step up to 7th in the East): a tough rebounding power forward. Marcus Morris is their man at 15–a highly productive college player a polished offensive game and great rebounding skills. It is a little concerning that he sees himself as a small forward and seems set on switching to the wing, however. He’s not quick enough to guard small forwards and will play much better as a slightly-undersized power forward.

16

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Markieff Morris

PF 6’9” 241 lbs Kansas 21

The Sixers are in search for a center, but there just aren’t any around here. They’ll still need a big man, and Markieff Morris is the best fit. Markieff is slightly taller than his twin brother, but his he’s not nearly as polished offensively. Markieff is a better low post defender and should be a quality role player. He won’t be a starter, but a very serviceable Taj Gibson-style player.

17

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Kenneth Faried

PF 6’8” 225 lbs Morehead St. 22

The Knicks can go two directions with their pick: a big to bolster their front line or a young point guard to run the team after Chauncey retires. I think Donnie Walsh and company firmly believe they can bring in either Chris Paul or Deron Williams, and with Toney Douglas on roster, point won’t be as pressing of a need as a big man. Kenneth Faried has a nonstop motor and is a fantastic rebounder, but lacks a refined offensive game. That’s perfectly fine for New York, though, because they have enough offense from Amar’e and Melo and just need glue players to do the dirty work.

18

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Klay Thompson

SG 6’7” 206 lbs Washington St. 21

After taking Kawhi Leonard with their first pick, the Wizards will still be on the lookout for tough, smart players. With Nick Young likely on the way out of town, there will be a hole at shooting guard. Enter Klay Thompson. The big 2-guard really impressed at the combine with both his range and length. He’ll fit in great with Leonard and will work great to fix the shaky image of Washington’s franchise.

19

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Chris Singleton

SF 6’9” 230 lbs Florida St. 21

With Gerald Wallace gone to greener pastures, the Bobcats lost their best defender, biggest energy player, and their man at small forward. Kawhi Leonard would have been a perfect fit, but he’ll be long gone when they pick at number nine. Chris Singleton is the best defender in the draft, and while not nearly the shooter Leonard, is extremely tough, durable, and tenacious. Charlotte could suddenly become an elite defensive team in a few years with a lineup that includes Henderson, Singleton, Thomas, and Biyombo.

20

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Josh Selby

G 6’3” 195 lbs Kansas 20

How could I possibly make it through a mock draft without making a David Kahn point guard joke? Of course not. Well Minnesota will be looking for a guard with this pick which likely comes down to Klay Thompson, Josh Selby, and Marshon Brooks. Selby can play either guard position and has one of the highest upsides in the entire draft. Unless Ricky Rubio has a change of heart and comes to Minnesota this season, I see Selby as a point guard, but he could just as easily move behind Wes Johnson at the 2-guard.

21

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Tobias Harris

F 6’8” 223 lbs Tennessee 18

On talent alone, Tobias Harris could be picked in the mid-teens. However, he’s built like a power forward with the size of a small forward. Portland needs frontcourt help and can take a gamble on a high-upside youngster like Harris. Hey, maybe he’ll grow another inch or two before he can legally drink and fulfill the promise that led him to be ranked seventh in last year’s recruiting class. As a side note, Tobias’ father keeps insisting that he’s being played out of position and is really a small forward. I just can’t buy that.

22

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Marshon Brooks

SG 6’5” 195 lbs Providence 22

Carmelo is gone, so Denver could really use some star power. Marshon Brooks should be perfect for this reincarnation of the Nuggets. The man finished second only behind Jimmer Fredette in scoring, but he did it in the tough Big East instead the questionable Mountain West. Not only that, but he has an insane 7’1″ wingspan. Why on Earth is this guy not in the lottery? J.R. Smith and Aaron Afflalo may be gone, but Marshon Brooks can absolutely ball.

23

Houston

Reggie Jackson

PG 6’3” 208 lbs Boston College 21

With their second pick in the first round, the Rockets will likely chase the top point guard left. Reggie Jackson is the best fit left–an athletic guard with a knack for scoring. Jackson finally broke out in his junior year shooting 50% from the field 42% from three and 80% from the line. He’s an excellent rebounder as well with a 7-foot wingspan. It is a tad concerning that he never racked up too many assists in his college career and lost in his only March Madness game, but his talent outweighs the cons.

24

Oklahoma-08-pres

Nikola Mirotic

F 6’10” 226 lbs Serbia 21

GM Sam Presti doesn’t take on bad contracts, he doesn’t make heat-of-the-moment moves, and he doesn’t reach in the draft. Nikola Mirotic is the next player in the wave of European talent entering this draft. He won’t be able to play in the NBA for a year or two (think Serge Ibaka), but he should be worth the wait and the buyout when he does arrive. He’s got confidence. He’s got poise. And he’s smooth. He’s got the size to play power forward, but shoots like a three. Despite the similarity in style of game to Kevin Durant, they should be able to play together fairly easily.

25

Boston-95-pres

Lucas Noguiera

C 6’11” 218 lbs Brazil 18

Whether or not the Celtics would have been able to re-sign Kendrick Perkins this summer, they’ll probably live to regret that trade with OKC. Right now, Shaq, Jermaine, and Nenad Krstic are the only centers on roster, and that just won’t do for Danny Ainge and the Celtics. If they’re looking for a long, defensive center to replace Perk, look no further than the next international big man on the board. He’s incredible on the defensive end and has much room to grow, as well as much weight to gain. If he can form any semblance of an offensive game, Noguiera could be one of the biggest steals in the draft.

26

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Tyler Honeycutt

SF 6’8” 187 lbs UCLA 20

Dallas will be looking for perimeter help, and they’ll be ecstatic if Honeycutt is still on the board this late in the draft. Honeycutt didn’t put up big numbers at UCLA, but former Bruins have a better track record in the NBA than they did in college (Collison, Westbrook, Afflalo, Farmar, Holliday…). He’ll have to put on a lot more muscle if he’s going to stick at the 3, but I believe he has the work ethic to do so. Honeycutt will never be an All-Star, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t become a solid rotation player.

27

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Jeremy Tyler

PF/C 6’11” 263 lbs USA 18

Jeremy Tyler is without a doubt my favorite player in this draft class. He left his San Diego high school in the middle of his junior year as the top recruit in the nation so he could reach the NBA a year early but in the process completely shot down his draft stock. His time in Israel was absolutely horrible, and he eventually left to play in Japan and salvaged what was left of his stock. Say what you will about his choice in his path to the NBA, but he has an absolutely huge frame with elite athleticism, including a nearly 40-inch vertical, 7’5″ wingspan, and 9’3″ standing reach. He is a physical specimen, very worthy of a late first-round pick. At worst, he’s a Gana Diop-type lane clogger who can stay in the league with his sheer size. At best, he can be that top recruit and become a taller Zach Randolph. I have no idea why he’s not discussed earlier in the first round. If his only knock is a past decision on trying to get into the league sooner, sign me up for this guy.

28

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Nolan Smith

G 6’4” 188 lbs Duke 22

With their first of two picks at the back end of the first, the Bulls will likely take the best guard available. Nolan Smith may not be a pure point guard, but he knows exactly what it takes to win. He’s a true warrior, a great leader, and a clutch shooter. Derrick Rose needs some insurance, and Nolan Smith can step up to be a nice energy player off the bench. So long as you look for him to be Kyrie Irving, Nolan Smith will become a very nice pro.

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Kyle Singler

F 6’8” 228 lbs Duke 22

The Spurs could go international here as they often do with a player like Davis Bertans or Bojan Bogdanovic, but I think they take a polished college forward here. Ultimately, I see the Spurs settling on Kyle Singler, a proven winner with the ability to stretch the floor as an undersized four or bang a little as a three. There’s no one skill that he does great, but he does a little bit of everything well and has succeeded at every level. Singler can be a good player in the NBA if he finds the right system, and a veteran team like the Spurs will be perfect.

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Travis Leslie

SG 6’4” 205 lbs Georgia 21

The biggest issue for the Bulls this season has been at shooting guard. The combination of Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, and Kyle Korver together don’t add up to one quality player, so the Bulls will likely take a chance on an athletic shooting guard with the last pick in the first round. Leslie is no long-range shooter, but he’s an excellent driver with a great motor. He’s one of the hardest working players entering the draft, and he’ll likely be that very Keith Bogans-type player at worst.

Top Five Players Left: JaJuan Johnson, Justin Harper, Malcolm Lee, Jordan Williams, and Darius Morris.

Categories: NBA | 2 Comments

The Power of a Star

Take a look at any Super Bowl contender; they’ve all got one thing in common. No, it’s not a great defense–the 14-2 Patriots gave up the eighth most yardage and Peyton Manning’s division champion Colts gave up the tenth most points. Could it be a  great coach? No, Norv Turner somehow wins 10 games every year and the Eagles always manage to do well despite Andy Reid’s horrific clock management. The answer is simple: you need a star quarterback.

The quarterback is without a doubt the most important position in all of pro sports. No position is quintessential in the NBA–The Lakers manage fine without a point guard, the Heat are playing great without a center, and the Bulls first in the East without a shooting guard. Baseball is even less star driven. But in the NFL, you can’t win without a bona fide star under center.

The best six teams record-wise were the Patriots, Falcons, Steelers, Ravens, Saints, and Bears. No surprise, they all have superstar level quarterbacks. Tom Brady. Matt Ryan. Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco. Drew Brees. Jay Cutler. Sure, Flacco and Cutler might not be on the level of a Rodgers or Manning, but they can make the play when the game is on the line.

Teams with great quarterbacks will find a way to succeed; it’s just how the NFL works in this new era. Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Mike Vick, and Josh Freeman led their team to 10 wins and Philip Rivers led his injury riddled Chargers to within one game of the playoffs and a 9-7 record.

Still not convinced? Let’s check out the top of the draft order: Carolina, Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Arizona. We have Jimmy Clausen and the 32nd ranked pass offense, the Tim Tebow experiment, a quarterback who played at Harvard, a washed up Carson Palmer, and a quarterback by committee that finished a solid 31st in passing. Not great.

If you want to win four to seven games every year, you can go ahead with Alex Smith and Chad Henne and hope for the best. But if you really want to contend for a title, you need an upgrade at quarterback. You need a franchise-type player.

There are four types of teams on the search for a star quarterback: those who have their guy, those who think they have their guy, those who are biding time waiting to find their guy, and those who are completely lost looking for their guy.

Franchise QB

Atlanta
Baltimore
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Green Bay
Indianapolis
New England
New Orleans
New York Giants
New York Jets
Pittsburgh
San Diego
St. Louis
Tampa Bay

We Think We’ve Got Our Guy

Joe Webb is not the answer to any question.

Joe Webb is not the answer to any question.

Denver
Cleveland
Houston
Kansas City
Philadelphia

Biding Time

Buffalo
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Miami
Oakland

Child, Please!

Arizona
Carolina
Minnesota
San Francisco
Seattle
Tennessee
Washington

Roughly half the teams in the league have a franchise quarterback, and their record reflects the importance of having a star QB. The fifteen teams averaged over 10 wins last season. Teams who think they’ve got their guy averaged only 7 wins, teams biding their time averaged 6 wins, and those who were just utterly lost averaged a mere 5 wins. No team that lacked any semblance of a franchise QB had a winning record.

No longer can you win in the NFL with simply a great defense. No longer can you grind your way through a season and win it all. You need to be able to just outscore the other team. Yes, the Ravens won Super Bowl XXXV mostly thanks to Ray Lewis and their great defense, but that was eleven years ago–so long ago that they might as well be the ’85 Bears.

There’s a great reason why teams with the Bradys and Mannings of the world are perpetually in Super Bowl contention: in this day and age offense reigns supreme. Once you have a star quarterback, you’re set for the next decade. And when you don’t, you turn into the Panthers.

So here sit the Panthers in the enviable position of owning the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. They are in desperate need of a competent quarterback. But at the same time, they need help at defensive tackle, defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver, offensive line, and, and, and… And to make matters worse, there’s no clear-cut, safe quarterback at the top of the draft board. Andrew Luck would have been their guy, but Luck made the strange decision of turning down nearly $50 million guaranteed to return to Stanford.

For the Panthers, there are only five players worth considering: Patrick Peterson, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, and that Cam Newton guy. Peterson may be the most talented player in the draft, Dareus fits one of their most pressing needs, A.J. Green would be perfect for replacing Steve Smith, and Gabbert has all of the makings to be a productive quarterback. But there’s only one right choice for the top pick. And it’s Cam Newton.

It’s not that I think any of the other players are bad. They just don’t make sense in the Panthers’ situation. Drafting a corner or wide receiver this early doesn’t make much sense, and D-Tackle isn’t as pressing of a need as quarterback.

And it’s not that I don’t like Blaine Gabbert. I just don’t see him as a big difference maker. I’ll give him this: there’s nothing to hate about his game. He’s smart, has great size, played in a big-time conference, has a nice arm, and is fairly mobile. But at the same time, no one aspect of his game shines. He doesn’t jump off the screen when you watch him, and he didn’t dominate his competition. I wouldn’t give him the Winning Gene. But boy does Cam Newton shine.

Few players are as inspiring as Cam Newton. Plain and simple.

Few players are as inspiring as Cam Newton. Plain and simple.

There was no college player nearly as dominant, captivating, and electric as Cam Newton in 2010. He can beat you with his rocket arm, his elusive speed, or just run you over with 6’5″, 248 lbs of fury. He dominated the best conference in the league and beat six top 20 teams in the process. Even most casual of college football fans couldn’t help but notice how special #2 was when he played. But despite all of his accolades and skill, people still seem to focus on past missteps when analyzing him as a potential prospect.

Yes, Cam allegedly stole a laptop. Yes, he may have been caught cheating twice. Yes, he may have sold his services to the highest bidder. But you know what? That didn’t stop him from being the best player in college football. He won the NJCAA Championship in his only year at Blinn College with an 11-1 record, and he ran the table with a 14-0 record in Auburn’s championship season. The man wins games. The man puts up stats. What more could you ask from a player?

There’s something infectious about Cam Newton’s personality. He’s got that great smile that reassures you that he’s got your back no matter how dire the situation. And whenever he steps into a room, he commands everyone’s respect. Newton is the very definition of a leader–willing to do anything to lead his team to victory.

The one leg up Newton has on the rest of the draft class is that he has the potential to be a star. He’s got unlimited potential, given that he comes with tons of risk. New 49ers coach poured praise on the young quarterback, saying that he “(hadn’t) seen upside like with this guy in probably the last 10 years.” But will he put in the full effort necessary? Can he maintain focus if he plays for a bad team? I believe so. He’s just that special of a player.

Newton is so special and so uniquely formed that I find him nearly impossible to compare to any other player. He’s not Michael Vick. Vick is a runner first, and Newton can absolutely run over defenders. He’s not JaMarcus Russell. Russell had a poor mindset and was purely a strong armed gunman. He’s not Vince Young. Young doesn’t have the accuracy or maturity that Newton put on display at Auburn. We can’t get stuck in this racial stereotype.

But if I had to pick one or two players he most reminds me of, they’d have to be Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Freeman. These three quarterbacks have huge frames (6’5″ 241, 6’6″ 240, 6’5″ 248), cannon arms, and are mobile in the pocket. They won’t necessarily put up the biggest numbers, but when the game is on the line, they deliver. They’re the type of player you want in your foxhole. And Cam Newton is the man for the Panthers.

I’ll admit that I loved the Panthers’ selection of Jimmy Clausen last year. But that turned out to be a big mistake. Clausen is an arrogant, entitled player who doesn’t lead well or know how to lead his team to victory. It’s easy to get the feeling that he thinks he deserves to be handed the keys to his dad’s brand new Caddy–he deserves it because he’s Jimmy Clausen and Jimmy Clausen gets what Jimmy Clausen wants. But that’s not how things work in the NFL.

Cam has had to work hard at every level he’s played. He had to prove that Auburn was more than just a top 25 team. He had to prove that he was more than just a good college quarterback. And you’d better bet that when he gets drafted number one overall, he’ll prove that he’s more than just a number one pick.

Categories: NFL | Leave a comment

The Worst Player in the League

Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing. First used by UCLA football head coach Henry Russell Sanders in 1950, these words have become among the most quoted in sports. In any job you undertake, your worth correlates directly with how much bacon you bring home, and in sports, it all comes down to the Ws. If you can’t lead your team to victory, how good of a player are you, really?

Baseball is a game full of statistics, and there is one stat that shows a player’s value more so than any other: Wins Above Replacement. Through a series of advanced metrics evaluating offense and defense, players are tracked to see how many wins they add to their team above a replacement level player. And one player in particular stands out if you analyze the numbers closely—Yuniesky Betancourt.

He is the proud owner the lowest WAR in the league at a -1.2 clip, making him the worst statistical player in the league. But even beyond the numbers, his ineptitude and inability to lead his team to victory makes it abundantly clear that Yuniesky Betacourt is the most abominable player in all of Major League Baseball.

It goes without saying that anyone who makes the Major Leagues and stays there for six seasons is clearly talented. Hell, anyone who makes it to the top level of any occupation deserves of a medal and a pat on the back. But someone has to be the worst at his job, and that man is unequivocally Mr. Betancourt.

You might've missed the ball on the tag, Yuni...

You might've missed the ball on the tag, Yuni...

Over the last two seasons, he cost his team 1.2 wins. The average major leaguer would have a WAR of around 3 to 4 over the same period. If you need to sign someone up to lose more than a game for your team, just call up my 102-year old great-grandmother Hermine, and she won’t cost you nearly Yuniesky’s $10 million left on his contract.

Over his six-year career, his total WAR is 2.6. That’s less than a half win added every year. You could trot out Mike Elwood, Special Olympian silver medalist, and add a half win to your team.

Baseball analyst Keith Law has his own breakdown of Yuni’s game: “It’s not just that Yuni is bad. It’s that he plays like he’s conserving calories.” The man doesn’t hit for power. He’s impatient, he can’t field competently, and he doesn’t even care enough to work himself into game shape. With that kind of dedication to his craft, could you even expect marginal returns?

Over the last two years, he barely got a hit once every four trips to the plate—hardly a world-beating rate—and reached base just one thousandth of a percentage point above dead last in the league. If there’s something productive Yuniesky Betancourt can do in the field, I must have mistakenly been watching cricket this whole time.

There’s something to be said for players who just win. In football, it’s nice to have a quarterback like Matt Schaub who puts up gaudy yardage numbers, but it’s even better to have a player like Ben Roethlisberger who will scratch and claw his way to seize victory from the jaws of defeat. Yuni does neither. Somehow, he miraculously finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Not surprisingly, Betancourt’s Royals have finished dead last in their division each of the past two seasons with records of 65-97 and 67-95, good for the fourth and fifth worst records in the league for 2009 and 2010.

The top players in any sport can put their team on their back and just will themselves to victory. Look at LeBron James. He was able to lead the Cavaliers to a 61-21 record in 2009, but this season with the superstar having taken his talents to South Beach, the Cavs lost 26 straight games en route to an 11-48 start. No doubt, LeBron is a powerful asset to any team because he turned an abysmal franchise into a championship contender.

Yuniesky, on the other hand, barely adds any talent and doesn’t have the skills or the drive to make his team into a winner. Betancourt is just good enough to con two teams into trading for him, but truly remains bad enough to be the worst player in the majors.

Blaring from the speakers at Auburn football games, you’ll hear DJ Khaled’s platinum single All I Do Is Win—a song that evokes a sense of swagger, pride, and more than anything else, victory. Because winning is a culture in sports, if you can’t win games, you don’t belong among the best. And when you get to the point of costing your team wins, you are condemned to being the single worst player in your sport.

As infamous Raiders’ owner Al Davis put it, “Just win, baby, win.”

Categories: MLB | 3 Comments

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