NFL Redemtion: Week 6

Everyone needs redemption one day or another. Brett Favre probably would like to play well to save the Vikings’ 1-3 season and move attention away from his Jets fiasco. Randy Moss and Deion Branch want a new and better beginning in their second stint with their old team.

Let’s be honest here, I’m having a rough year picking against the spread. Through the first five weeks, I’m already eight games under .500, but I am 3-1 in my Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Weeks. This is where I turn my season around. This is my Brett Favre picture perfect moment — er — redemption.

Seahawks (+6.5) over BEARS
Am I the only one who doesn’t believe in the Bears? They have no dependable receivers and a quickly aging defense. Except last week, Matt Forte has averaged only two yards per carry. Four wins don’t really matter anyways when you play the Lions and Panthers in two of them.

Ravens (+2.5) over PATRIOTS
Who made this line? The Ravens are in the top-3 Super Bowl favorites now, while the Patriots just lost Randy Moss. What happened the last time the Ravens came to Foxborough? The Ravens won by 19 in the playoffs. I still believe in the Patriots this year, but I’m taking the Ravens all the way, especially if you give me nearly a field goal.

Lions (+10.5) over GIANTS
I just don’t believe in the Giants. They are hot and cold. They lose to the Titans by 19 then beat the Texans by 24. Is Hakeem Nicks really this good? I’ll tell you this: the Lions will definitely keep this game within 11, just wait for Shaun Hill to chuck up balls to Megatron in junk time.

Falcons (+1.5) over EAGLES
How bad is it that Michael Vick can’t play against his former team? It’s bad enough that it will cost Philly the game. Atlanta is one of the best teams in the NFC without question, and a win here could put them atop the entire conference. Matt Ryan is going to take a big step up in this game; he’ll soon be a top-8 NFL quarterback.

STEELERS (-13.5) over Browns
It doesn’t matter how high this line is, I will always take Pittsburgh. Rookie Colt McCoy will be starting his first career game against the NFL’s top defense. Rumor has it that McCoy was so bad in training camp, the only reason he still had a job was the fact that he was their 3rd round pick. You’d think they’d just pound the ball down Pittsburgh’s throats, but do you actually think a banged up Peyton Hillis will be able to do much against the Steelers? Also, Big Ben is in great shape — ya think he’ll be excited to pick apart the Browns’ secondary at will?

PACKERS (-1.5) over Dolphins
Yes, the Packers have lost Jermichael Finley for the year. Yes, the Packers have lost Ryan Grant for the year. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. However, they are still a step above the Dolphins. Chad Henne has looked somewhat shaky and Ricky Williams has been non-existent all year. At home, I’ll take the Packers and their aerial attack.

Chargers (-8.5) over RAMS
The Chargers pulled a Chargers last week. Every year, they start extremely slow and lose to a Raiders-level team. The fans are crushed. Media goes back on their AFC West picks. And then San Diego turns their season around. 2 weeks ago, San Diego laid a beatdown on the Cards 41-10, only to lose to Oakland the very next week. There isn’t a more confusing team in the NFL, but since this is the Rams that we’re talking about, I’ll take the Chargers.

Saints (-5.5) over BUCS
You do realize these are the Bucs, right? I consider myself one of Josh Freeman’s biggest proponents (I said I’d rather have him the Sanchize of draft day), but he is nowhere close to being able to lead Tampa passed New Orleans right now. In a few years, I could see Freeman as a Big Ben-style QB, but in a few hours, I see him as a losing quarterback.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Chiefs
Like the Bears, records do lie. 3-1 doesn’t mean much when you play the Browns, Niners, and Chargers (in Week 1). Their defense isn’t great, and it will need to really step up to stop Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster. That just isn’t going to happen on the road.

The Raiders are so bad that an 0-5 team is favored over them by a touchdown.

The Raiders are so bad that an 0-5 team is favored over them by a touchdown.

NINERS (-6.5) over Raiders
Wait, is Vegas really favoring the 0-5 Niners by a touchdown? Oh, yeah, they’re playing the Raiders.

Jets (-3.5) over BRONCOS
How bad is the Broncos’ running game? Their three leading rushers (Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and Laurency Maroney) are averaging 2.8, 1.9, and 1.9 yards per carry. The immortal Kenneth Darby is averaging 3 yards per carry. Now put them against the Jets’ hungry D. That’s not a good set up.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Cowboys
Is this the best matchup of 1-3 teams ever? These two teams could be the most talented clubs in the NFC, but they both have terrible coaches. Wade Phillips has no control over his team while Brad Childress looks clueless on the sideline 60% of the time every time. The head coaches, however, will not play as big of a roles as Mr. Randy Moss. Moss still hasn’t forgiven the Cowboys for passing on him in the draft. Moss has won all seven of his matchups against Dallas (even while he was in Oakland) and has eleven TDs total. I’m guessing Moss will have a huge game and lead Minny to a huge home victory.

Colts (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Are you really going to go against Peyton in primetime? I didn’t think so. This is the Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week.

Titans (-3.5) over JAGS
Usually, teams play their best in primetime at home. This doesn’t really matter, however, when you are the Jags. Its hard to get hyped up for playing in front of 12,000 fans on a Monday night.

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 32-44

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 3-1

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Streaks and Slides: Baseball Edition

We’ve all had to make that choice of riding a streak out or jumping off the bandwagon. It’s the age-old question: if you flip ten straight heads, is the next one more likely to be a heads or tails? One person is going to say that tail is due, but the next person will almost certainly stick with the “hot coin.” But both people are wrong. Unless this coin is double-sided, each flip is completely independent and has a 50-50 chance of landing on heads or tails.

While sports aren’t as simple as a flip of a coin, you can apply the same principles to streaks and slides. But do streaks and slides even exist?

Let’s take for example perennial slow starter Mark Teixeira. At the start of this season, most people saw him as a .300 hitter. After the first month of the season, he was hitting .136. Going forward, there were three realistic trains of thought as to how he would finish the year:

1) He was projected to hit .300, so he will hit .330 the rest of the way and finish the year right on schedule.

2) He will hit .300 the rest of the way and finish around .280.

3) This just isn’t his year; he’ll hit .260 the rest of the year and finish around .230.

Which is the right answer? Clearly, he wasn’t going to continue hitting just .136 on the year, but there is no definitive answer (although the second choice seems most realistic). Tex actually ended the year hitting just .256; he hit his career average of .285 the rest of the way. So what does this mean? Streaks are a bit overrated, and eventually everything evens out.

Take a look at the two players most often labeled as “playoff clutch”: Derek Jeter and David Ortiz.

Derek Jeter career regular season (.314 AVG, .385 OBP, .452 SLG)
Derek Jeter career post season (.312, .381, .475)

David Ortiz career regular season (.281, .376, .543)
David Ortiz career post season (.283, .388, .520)

Notice anything different? Probably not. Both players’ numbers are shockingly similar from April until November. Again, streaks and slides do exist, but they are largely overblown, as each at-bat is a separate match up.

So the next time you hear an announcer say that Player X is on a fill-in-the-blank hit streak, take it with a grain of salt. Player X isn’t seeing the ball any better, he’s not wearing special goggles or using a corked bat. He’s just the same hitter who may be facing easier pitching, or feeling more confident.

In the end, everything will even out. When the Padres won 10 of 11 in August, it took them a matter of days before tailing off into a ten game losing streak. Nobody in baseball wins over 90 percent of the time; everything will eventually even out

New York Yankees (4) at Texas Rangers (3)

Are these the most polar opposite teams in postseason play? The Rangers just won their first playoff series while they Yankees have won a mere 27 championships and countless series victories. It’s the grumpy old grandpa and the over-excited youngster. This one should be interesting.

Of course, the Yankees would luck out again. First, they won the Wild Card, but then were matched up against the always-over-matched Twins. Then, the Rays and Rangers took their series to five games, having to pitch their aces in the last game. The Yankees now get to sit at home and wait, not having to face Cliff Lee until Game 3.

How important is Cliff Lee to this series? New York was willing to give up prized prospect and hitting machine Jesus Montero to prevent this situation from happening. They were willing to give up a future cheap middle-of-the-order bat to have Cliff Lee one year earlier. This man is a special pitcher.

With Cliff Lee slated to pitch Game 3 and either Game 6 or 7 (depending on if the Rangers trail 3-2 when they return to Arlington), the Rangers will start in a huge hole. As good as C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have been this year, they aren’t trustworthy in big games. Only being able to pitch Cliff Lee twice in the latter half of the series could very likely cost them the series.

The Yankees will be listed as the underdogs (Texas has home field advantage), but they are clear favorites to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic. They have a stacked lineup filled with All-Stars, rising stars, and former stars. They’ve been there. They’ve done that. They are the model of a consistent offense.

In the playoffs, the best pitching will win. The Yankees have the big name guys whose talents may be a bit overstated while the Rangers have Cliff Lee plus no-name pitchers. So it will all come down to consistency in the end.

Which pitcher would you rather have in a Game 7 than Cliff Lee?

Which pitcher would you rather have in a Game 7 than Cliff Lee?

The importance of Cliff Lee cannot be overstated. Every time he toes the rubber, you know he’ll go 9 innings strong. This man may be the best playoff pitcher in decades. It’s just too bad for the Rangers that he can’t win games 1, 4, and 7 for them.

The Yankees’ pitching is in just as interesting of a situation as the Rangers’. CC Sabathia is great in the regular season; he is durable, he strikes out batters, and he is a driving force for his club. But for some reason, you can’t count on him in October. His ERA is 4.41 in the postseason with a 1.49 WHIP. Phil Hughes started off the year great with a 2.70 ERA until the summer began, only to end the year with a 4.88 ERA with a 4.66 home ERA. Andy Pettitte is all-time great in the playoffs, but he’s been banged up the entire back end of the season.

If the Rangers are going to win this series, they’ll need to split at home, as weird as that sounds. Unfortunately, with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis going, that will be a challenge. Cliff Lee’s Game 3 start will almost certainly be a win, but Tommy Hunter’s Game 4 start will be anything but inspiring.

In the end, the Yankees have too much hitting and experience not to win this series. I don’t really love their pitching, but after Cliff Lee, the Rangers have next to nothing. I see the Yankees taking both in Texas before taking down the Rangers in 5.

San Francisco Giants (2) at Philadelphia Phillies (1)

Where the ALCS is a matchup of great hitting teams, the NLCS is a matchup of supreme pitching teams. Halladay. Lincecum. Oswalt. Cain. Hamels. Especially when the teams travel west, this series will be lower scoring than a World Cup match.

Philadelphia is without a doubt the best team left in the postseason. If you can beat them when Doc Halladay is pitching, you have to go up against Roy Oswalt the next day. If you can manage to beat Oswalt, you have to take down Cole Hamels the next day. And if you can win those three games, you must be the National League All-Star team.

San Francisco doesn’t have too bad of a rotation, either. Tim Lincecum has been up-and-down this season, but after a horrific August, he picked up his game for a fantastic September. Jonathan Sanchez, like Lincecum, has been very boom or bust. In 17 of his 34 starts, he allowed one or no runs, but in twelve other starts, he allowed three or more runs. Matt Cain represents the most consistent of their top three starters; he’ll give up a few runs, but he will go seven or eight innings strong.

As much as I believe in Pat the Bat and Jose Guillen, I just can't go with the Giants powerhouse offense over the Phillies.

As much as I believe in Pat the Bat and Jose Guillen, I just can't go with the Giants powerhouse offense over the Phillies.

Philadelphia has a distinct edge in pitching, but an even bigger one on the hitting side. With three 30-homer hitters along with two speedy veterans, the Phillies have a complete lineup. As for the Giants, they have Buster Posey, Kung Fu Panda, and a bunch of 30-year olds. Doc, Oswalt, and Hamels aren’t going to be easily shaken up by the Vottos, Howards, and Fielders of baseball world, so don’t expect Pat the Bat, Jose Guillen, and Juan Uribe to put the Fear of God into Philly.

Like I said for the Reds, if a team is going to beat the Phillies, they need to score early to get to the Phillies’ bullpen as soon as possible. Once the Phillies’ starters get into a groove, you are not going to score. If you can see four innings of Chad Durbin, Danys Baez, and Jose Contreras, you have a much better chance of winning. Unfortunately, as long as Burrell and Guillen are getting serious playing time, I don’t see that happening.

The Phillies, plain and simple, just out-class the Giants. They are better in every phase of the game and they have home field advantage. They have quality. They have quantity. They have what it takes to win.

A sweep would be very hard for Philly, and I don’t see that happening. Philadelphia will take this one in 5, and they are my pick to bring home the hardware later this month.

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The Power is in the East

I’ve always thought this, but I’ve never quite found the right way to put it. It happens across all sports, of course, not just in baseball. Teams on the East Coast are just better than the rest of the league.

12 of the last 16 World Series Champs. The three best teams in the majors. 4 of the top 5 payrolls in the league.

East Coast teams aren’t just better than the rest of the league, they are willing to go farther and spend more to win. So are these teams better because all of the money is on the East Coast? I wouldn’t say so, but it is a big factor.

The success of East Coast teams goes beyond baseball. In New England and along the Atlantic, everything is a business. People have worked hard going back centuries to the Puritans, and baseball is a way of life. As for the other side of the US, sports are more of a social event. Games are hardly ever sold out, and people go for the food and friends rather than the excitement of the game. The vibe of the city doesn’t ride on their team’s success as it does in the Northeast, and sports don’t seem to matter as much there.

Free Agents in all sports are showing. In the NBA, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, and Shaquille O’Neal all came east while no major free agent went to the West. The top three MLB free agents of 2009 (Matt Holliday, John Lackey, and Jason Bay) all stayed away from the west coast while two of them joined East Coast clubs. Even in football, Vince Wilfork and Jared Gaither stayed on the East Coast for a discount while Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby left the West Coast for their new homes.

The imbalance is clearly largest in Major League Baseball. Throughout the season, the top four teams have been the Rays, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox while the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mariners floundered at the bottom of the league. The AL East was by far the best division in the league, but the NL and AL West produced six poor teams.

The signs are everywhere, and they aren’t going away for a while: the best teams are in the east. My playoff picks reflect this new shift of power, and the World Series will reflect it too.

Cincinnati Reds (3) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (1)

On paper, it’s nearly impossible to make a case that the Phillies shouldn’t be the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series. They have three aces, a deep and talented lineup, and a been-there-done-that mentality. With a perfect balance of youth and experience, power, speed, and pitching, this team is ready to go.

The last time Cincy was in the playoffs, this guy stole 51 bases.

The last time Cincy was in the playoffs, this guy stole 51 bases.

The Reds, on the other hand, are a completely different story. Often picked to finished third or worst in the Central, Cincy used its home ballpark to its advantage and slugged there way to their first playoff appearance in fifteen years. The Reds are new to the playoff atmosphere; only Bronson Arroyo, Ramon Hernandez, Orlando Cabrera, and Scott Rolen have played in the playoffs.

At first glance, the Phillies are going to be huge favorites in this series. They have better starters. They have better hitters. They have more experience. So in order for the Reds to overcome this Philly Phanatic-sized challenge, they need to make the Phillies play to their strengths.

What the Phillies have pitching-wise, the Reds don’t have. Philadelphia will outclass Cincy every game in terms of starting pitching; Edinson Volquez-Arroyo-Cueto won’t cut it against Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. But if the Reds can jump on one of the starters early, they’ll quickly expose the Phillies’ weak underbelly: the ‘pen.

Brad Lidge is by far the worst closer in the playoffs, even when he’s on his A-game. As Philly fans can attest, no lead under five is safe with him, but they really don’t have any better options. Ryan Madsen thrives in his eighth inning role, but can’t hit the strike zone when he goes in for the ninth. Journeymen J.C. Romero and Danys Baez are replacement-level reliever who found a roster spot on the NL East champion’s roster.

Scoring early hasn’t been a problem for Cincinnati this year. The Reds led the National League in scoring by a nice margin, largely thanks to MVP candidate Joey Votto’s emergence as one of the top young first basemen in the game and Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce’s reemergence. Putting runs on the board early will put pressure on the Phillies and manager Charlie Manuel, known oftentimes to make quick, poor decisions. Also, any way to get Jose Contreras into the game earlier can only help.

Things won’t be that easy for the Reds, though. You can make a great case that although the Phillies scored less runs, their offense (when healthy) is much stronger. With three starters able to go eight or nine innings strong, you can’t expect the Reds to continue to score five and six points per game. In October, pitching wins, and Philadelphia has a distinct edge there.

I see Philly taking Games 1 and 2 at home behind the strong pitching of Halladay and Oswalt, but losing Game 3 after the Reds tear apart Cole Hamels (Philly had better hope it doesn’t mess with his psyche). With Halladay going on regular rest, I see the Phillies closing out the Reds on the road as they move on to NLCS.

I really wanted to pick the Reds in the first round, and I would have taken them over the Braves had they finished with a better record than San Francisco. But that’s not how things shook out, and Cincinnati will have to wait ’til next year and pray for better pitching.

Atlanta Braves (4) at San Francisco Giants (2)

If you’re not from the Bay Area or the ATL, this series will be a snoozer. The Giants play in a top-five pitcher friendly ballpark with little in the way of offense. Atlanta is solid all around, but will be missing All-Stars Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. So get ready everybody! Get psyched for Tommy Hanson! Aubrey Huff! And everybody’s favorite All-Star…..Omar Infante!

The name of the game for the Braves and Giants this year has been run prevention. Finishing fourth and second in the league respectively in runs, both teams have put an emphasis on pitching and defense this season. While they were able to pitch there way to many wins, neither offense has much to brag about. Rookie of the Year candidates Jason Heyward (my NL ROY pick) and Buster Posey were the two bright spots this year, but the rest of the teams are filled with aging vets, has-beens, and uninspiring stopgaps.

After Posey, the rest of the Giants lineup looks pretty dreadful. Freddy Sanchez, Jose Guillen, and Pat “The Bat” Burrell look awfully old and shouldn’t be major contributors on a playoff team. Kung Fu Panda is a fraction of his rookie self — but not in weight. If you want to gauge how poor their offense has been, just look to the fact that their top three hitters were Burrell, Huff, and a rookie.

Atlanta has been solid all year. Not fantastic. Not average. Just Solid. While they will miss Chipper and Martin Prado a lot, most of their offense came from other places. Super prospect Jason Heyward has become the Braves’ best hitter, and Brian McCann continues to quietly work hard to put up big numbers. Mid-season acquisitions Derrek Lee and Alex Gonzalez have been fairly good since they landed in Atlanta, but they aren’t game changers anymore.

Interesting Note: Eric Hinske's team has reached the World Series each of the last three seasons (Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees)

Interesting Note: Eric Hinske's team has reached the World Series each of the last three seasons (Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees)

The problem with Atlanta is that they have too many “eh” players. What do I mean? If you saw the graphic in the bottom corner of the screen that said “Coming up next: Eric Hinske, Rick Ankiel, Omar Infante” the only thing you could say is “eh.” They are uninspiring with little upside, but solid productivity. They won’t sell out games. They won’t draw viewers. But they do work and quietly do most of what they’re asked.

This series will be very low scoring, so ultimately it will come down to which pitchers can stay mistake free for the longest. Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson fit the safe-and-steady pitcher role who will only give up one to three runs over seven innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen. Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are just too inconsistent for my taste. Lincecum and Sanchez can both be lights out as they have demonstrated many times, but they are just as likely to blow up for five runs over three innings.

Consistency will end up winning this series, and consistency is on the Braves’ side. You just can’t depend on Zito, Burrell, Guillen, and the Giants bullpen and hope to go far in the playoffs. I don’t love the team the Braves are fielding, but they can play well night after night and shut you down once you get into the bullpen. At the end of the day, Atlanta has more talent and more motivation (Bobby Cox’s last season), and will ultimately take this series in 5.

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The Byes Have Arrived

Week 4 marks the first week of byes. The first week of fans screaming for their coach’s head. The first week of fantasy owners scrambling to pick up the likes of Tony Scheffler and Deion Branch. The first week of less football. With Tampa, KC, Dallas, and Minny taking the week off, its time to dive into my Week 4 NFL Picks, which I guarantee to do better then last week. Home teams in CAPS.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Niners
Could this Falcons team really be a Super Bowl contender? They have a great young quarterback, a workhorse runningback, and two exceptional receivers. Add in an underrated manager and over-performing defense, and this team looks great. Curtis Lofton has stepped up into a Pro-Bowl quality linebacker and the key piece to Atlanta’s defense. I think they’re definitely in the conversation with New Orleans and Green Bay for tops in the NFC.

Jets (-5.5) over BILLS
As terrible as Shonn Greene has looked this year, doesn’t this just smell like a 120 yard game for the second year back? The Bills are garbage in Buffalo, Toronto, or anywhere else they play and with any runningback they start. I don’t love the Jets this year, but this line is just to sweet to pass up. Sweet, that is, like a Bojangles’ Sweet Tea Lock 0f the Week!

Bengals (-3.5) over BROWNS
Carson Palmer is not a good quarterback. He is really just bad. His stats may not say so, especially in his game versus New England, but he is BAD. He has all the weapons anyone could ever ask for, but that can’t hide the fact that he is not a good quarterback. That being said, Cincy is playing Cleveland. I’ll take the Bengals and dumb Carson Palmer.

Lions (+14.5) over PACKERS
When is the last time a division game was decided by 15 points? Week 1….oh. Well, I can’t give the Lions more than 2 touchdowns when they’ve clearly demonstrated that they can and will pile up the junk time points.

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are impossible to guess. Do they have a good offense? Their top three receivers include a 22-year old and two journeyman veterans. Is the defense even okay? The answers to both questions are irrelevant because they don’t have Chris Johnson and they don’t even have Vince Young.

Seahawks (-0.5) over RAMS
Seattle has one of the few true home field advantages left in the league. At the same time, they are one of the worst road teams of the past decade. But there road troubles weren’t against a team featuring the immortal Kenneth Darby, Billy Bajema, and Danny Amendola.

Panthers (+13.5) over SAINTS
Carolina has won seven of their last games in New Orleans. Carolina needs this game. Carolina needs its rookie quarterback to step up. Carolina needs Double Trouble to show up. Carolina will lose. Carolina, however, will cover in a surprisingly close divisional fight.

Ravens (+1.5) over STEELERS
This is the hardest game of the week to pick by far, and its gonna be intense. They both have ferocious players who will fight until the end to scrap out a victory. But in the end, two factors make me lean to Baltimore: Charlie Batch and the spread. Batch is essentially a coach with a helmet. The 35-year old hasn’t started more then a handful meaningful game since he got to Pittsburgh. Also, I see this game being won by three or less, so I’ll take the Ravens and the points.

Colts (-8.5) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars are the very definition of an average team. David Garrard is is the epitome of an average quarterback, Mike Sims-Walker is incredibly inconsistent, and the defense is filled with no-names, has-beens, and never-wills. Unfortunately for them, you can’t win in this league being average, especially against the Colts.

Texans (-3.5) over RAIDERS
So what, the Texans lost a game to the Cowboys when Dallas and Wade Phillips desperately needed a win. That doesn’t lower them them to the same level as the Raiders. I can’t put any faith in Tom the Cable guy or Bruce the Plumber even if Andre Johnson does’t play. This one is too easy.

Cardinals (+8.5) over CHARGERS
Haven’t we already figured out that the Chargers don’t show up until around Week 4 or 5 every year? Norv Turner’s teams are historically slow starters, but somehow flip the switch around December. I think they take this game, but it’ll be close. Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells will have field days against San Diego’s unspectacular D, but Arizona can’t overcome the fact that they have Derek Anderson at the helm.

Nothing quite gets me excited like Jay Cutler in primetime.

Nothing quite gets me excited like Jay Cutler in primetime.

EAGLES (-6.5) over Redskins
Donovan McNabb’s return to Philly won’t be a smooth one. He thinks he’ll receive a standing ovation, but Eagles fans aren’t really known for their generous hospitality (see Claus, Santa). Philadelphia’s secondary knows every one of McNabb’s tricks, and Michael Vick has all the weapons at his disposal he could ever ask for. Eagles by a touchdown sounds just about right to me.

Bears (+3.5) over GIANTS
Who chose this game to be in prime time? I’d love to see Ravens/Steelers on Sunday night.

Patriots (-0.5) over DOLPHINS
What is scarier then a motivated Randy Moss? Normally the answer to this question is nobody, but here it is Tom Brady in prime time. Tom Brady doesn’t lose in prime time. He just doesn’t do that.

Last Week: 5-11

Season: 20-28

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 2-1

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Week 3 NFL Picks: We Still Don't Know

How crazy is the NFL Season? The Bucs and Chiefs are 2-0 while the Cowboys and Vikings are 0-2. So what does this tell us? We still don’t know much about any of the teams. We think the Texans will be good and the Niners might be bad, but 2 games tell us just about nothing. With that in mind, here are my Week 3 NFL picks; home teams are in BOLD.

Niners (-2.5) over CHIEFS
What happened to Michael Crabtree last week? San Fran’s top receiver was only targeted 3 times and finished the game with one spectacular catch for 32 yards. Winning with Alex Smith at the helm is hard enough, especially when he can’t get the ball to Crabtree. Coach Singletary keeps insisting Crabtree is still in his rookie year after joining the team midseason last year, but Crabtree needs to be more involved. The 49ers need this win, no matter how bad their division is, so I’ll take the desperate road team here.

There's only so much confidence you can have in any of the Browns' quarterbacks.

There's only so much confidence you can have in any of the Browns' quarterbacks.

RAVENS (-10.5) over Browns
For anyone thinking about taking the Browns here, just think about Seneca Wallace heading INTO Baltimore to faced a hyped up defense led by Ray Lewis. That usually doesn’t end up well for a team led by a quarterback the caliber of Mr. Wallace.

Cowboys (+2.5) over TEXANS
Wade Phillips always has a way of losing big games, but winning when his job depends on it. This would qualify as one of those games. Dallas is 0-2 and heading into a bye next week; if a loss today isn’t the perfect storm for Jerry Jones to bring in Bill Cowher, I don’t know what is.

Lions (+10.5) over VIKINGS
The Vikings need this game. The Vikings are at home. The Vikings will win the game. However, the Lions have a habit of logging unreal amounts of garbage time points late in games, even with Shaun Hill at quarterback. 10.5 points is just too many to give away to a division rival, so I’m taking Minnesota for the win, but the Lions to cover with a late score.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Bills
Last week we learned that no spread is too big when the Bills are playing. The only thing funnier then watching the Bills play is watching how they handle their runningback conundrum. Fred Jackson is playing the best, but they drafted C.J. Spiller 9th overall last May. Now, they’ve benched Spiller to play former first-rounder Marshawn Lynch, claiming they won’t trade him any time soon. Now Spiller is 3rd string, and management “doesn’t want to” trade Lynch. All I can say is “C’mon now!”

SAINTS (-4.5) over Falcons
Saints at home? Yes Please! Michael Turner is banged up and the Saints D will be psyched for their first divisional game.

Titans (+3.5) over GIANTS
I’m still in shock about why Jeff Fisher yanked Vince Young in a tight game against the Steelers for 38 year old Kerry Collins! Either way, I’d rather have VY then Eli Manning, a player who I still insist is a product of the luckiest play in Super Bowl history and a football family. The Titans are stronger in the trenches, and have a far superior running game. Gimme the Titans, and gimme the points.

Steelers (-2.5) over BUCS
You do realize that these are the Bucs, right? You do realize they are coached by Raheem Morris, right? I don’t care if Pittsburgh is led by pseudo-coach Charlie Batch or Antwaan Randel El, I’m taking the Steelers here.

Bengals (-3.5) over PANTHERS
As much as I’d love to take the Panthers, I just can’t do it. Jimmy Clausen is making his first career start, so expect the Bengals to bring a bull rush just about every other down. The key to the game will be who can win the aerial attack, and I just don’t think Chris Gamble and the Panthers secondary can shut down Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham.

Eagles (-2.5) over JAGUARS
Michael Vick looks like the Michael Vick of old. Well, that probably because he played the Lions and 2 quarters of garbage time against Green Bay. The again, he’s playing the Jags. Yeah, I’ll take Philly.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS
When’s the last time the Rams were only favored to lose by 3.5 points? 2006?

Colts (-6.5) over BRONCOS
The Colts have won their last 15 games by an average of 12.6 points. That’s nearly 2 touchdowns. That’s including games against the Jets, Ravens, Patriots, and Houston. Do you think going into Mile High Stadium is going to phase Peyton? Probably not. This is the Bojangles Lock o’ the Week.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Raiders
Both of these teams are enigmas. The Raiders look alright, but then they bring back Bruce the Plumber. The Cardinals had high hopes going into the year, and now they’re playing Derek Anderson. At least Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald and is playing at home.

Chargers (-5.5) over SEAHAWKS
As the Broncos proved last week, Seattle is not good. The Chargers have a great offense and solid defense, even with Vincent Jackson out and Ryan Mathews at 90%. Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and Legedu Naanee are 6’4″, 6’5″, and 6’2″ respectively while Seattle’s secondary of Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, and Earl Thomas are 5’11”, 5’11”, and 5’10” respectively. Those mismatches are just too much to overcome.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Jets
What is dumber the getting a DWI in New York? Braylon Edwards was twice the legal limit at .16% BAC, yet decided to drive with several other teammates. In New York City. There are more cabs in New York City then there are people in Idaho. There are more cabs in New York City then there species of birds. There are more cabs in New York city then the combined weight of Rex Ryan, their O-line, and D-Line. On top of that, Jets’ owner Woody Johnson has a service set up for his players who think they aren’t in the best condition to get home. But the funniest part of all is that Rex Ryan says that Braylon is a distraction. REX says that BRAYLON is a distraction.

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
Home teams usually way out-perform themselves on Monday Night Football, but you can only do so well with a receiver corps of Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, and Devin Hester. The Packers have too many offensive weapons to lose here, and a win to give them a vicegrip on the division.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 15-17

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 1-1

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The Power of Handcuffs

There’s nothing that can quite spark a conversation around this time of year like fantasy football. People yell and complain about how their bench outscored their starters, how Arian Foster went off for 41 points against them, and how they dropped Austin Collie on Friday, only for their opponent to pick him up and ultimately beat their team.

But all complaining and terrible storytelling will get you is zero sympathy in many people’s hearts (oftentimes including myself). We’ve all had that happen to us, and changing the names doesn’t make for a more interesting story. So how do you avoid stories involving Mr. Foster and Collie? Know your stuff! This week’s fantasy insight on handcuffs will get you back on the winning track.

The secret to finding sleeper runningbacks is handcuffs. Basically, the backup to a star runningback can go from unplayable to must-plays. We saw that this week when Ryan Grant went on IR and Brandon Jackson went from being owned in one in every thousand leagues to being owned in nearly 90% of leagues. Typically, the best runningbacks have great offensive lines, so they can be somewhere from 70-80% as productive as their teammate. Here are my four favorite handcuffs, their percent owned in ESPN leagues, and brief descriptions:

Bernard Scott – 44.9% – The most talented of the group, currently getting the most carries.
Rashad Jennings – 26.5% – MJD nearly had knee surgery, could be getting major carries with one hit.
Toby Gerhart – 6.4% – Heisman contender last year at Stanford, backs up perennially injured Adrian Peterson
Javon Ringer – 4.9% – Dominant at MSU, looked great last week vs. Oakland. CJ2K could be worn down with so many carries soon.

If you own Cedric Benson, MJD, AD, or CJ2K (Benson needs a cool initials nickname now), you need to pick up your handcuff since they’ll be far more valuable if your player goes down then the average backup, say, Chester Taylor. Handcuffs can also be valuable to teams who don’t have one of those runningbacks, since they can be double-digit per week scorers at best, while the Chester Taylors of the world will max out around 8 points per week.

Not all elite runningbacks have clear-cut-handcuffs. For instance, Rashard Mendenhall has three potential backups (vet Mewelde Moore, rookie Jonathan Dwyer, and goal line back Isaac Redmond), Atlanta’s backup isn’t certain between Jerious Noorwood and Jason Snelling, and Steven Jackson’s backup Kenneth Darby is not good; neither is St. Louis’ line.

Grab these guys soon, before they become hot commodities like Brandon Jackson. Scott, Jennings, Gerhart, and Ringer could combine for just 40 points combined the rest of the season, but they also could erupt into triple digit points. I’ll guarantee you this: you’ll have a not more potential on your bench with those four handcuffs then Chester Taylor and Leon Washington.

Now its time for my Week 2 picks, of course, with home teams in CAPS.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Cardinals
As bad as the Falcons did last week, the Cardinals looked worse. Derek Anderson could not connect with Larry Fitzgerald and completed barely over half of his passes. Beanie Wells isn’t healthy and Early Doucet is out. The Falcons came off a tough overtime loss in Pittsburgh, so they will dig a humongous hole for themselves if they lose their home opener and fall to 0-2. Giving up a touchdown is hard to do, but I’ll take a highly motivated Falcons team at home.

Ravens (-1.5) over BENGALS
Baltimore is fresh off of an emotional victory at New York on Monday night, but the Bengals lost to the Patriots, including falling behind by 28 at one point. The Ravens, however, have a much better defense then Cincy. If they can take Cedric Benson out of the game, Ray Lewis and Crew will force Carson Palmer to make the big play. Personally, I don’t think Palmer can step up it, so I’ll take the suddenly pass-competent birds.

Chiefs (+1.5) over BROWNS
The Browns are so bad that we’re questioning whether or not they’ll be worse with their starting quarterback out. Jake Delhomme is doubtful, so it looks like Seneca Wallace will be stepping in. Believe it or not, the Browns lost their game versus the Bucs because Delhomme threw 2 picks. The Chiefs do have a short week, but they have competent runningbacks and experienced receivers. Especially since I’m getting points, its Chiefs all the way.

COWBOYS (-8.5) over Bears
Dominant teams need to blow out at least three to four games per year. This has to be one of those games for the Cowboys. Tony Romo has just too many weapons at his disposal to not pick apart a well-below average Bears pass defense. As a side note, its terrible that Calvin Johnson’ touchdown catch wasn’t actually a catch. A rule is a rule, but a dumb one needs to be changed.

How can you not be excited to see Michael Vick's first start since '06? Any way you slice it, he's 10-15 times better then Shaun Hill.

How can you not be excited to see Michael Vick's first start since '06? Any way you slice it, he's 10-15 times better then Shaun Hill.

Eagles (-3.5) over LIONS
What a ridiculous line. Kevin Kolb played terribly until his concussion, and Michael Vick filled in exceptionally. Although the Lions played like they deserved to win, but they were playing the Bears. The Eagles clearly have one of the most explosive offenses in the league with Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. Put that up against a slightly poor defense and an offense without their franchise QB, and I’ll take the Eagles by a lot. Is this the Bojangles Lock of the Wee? You bet your biscuits!

PACKERS (-13.5) over Bills
Let’s be honest here, this just feels like a 35-10 blowout. The Packers have an elite offense and the Bills — well — have a defense (that’s about the nicest way I can describe their defense). The good news for Buffalo fans is that C.J. Spiller looked good last week…..wait a minute…

Steelers (+5.5) over TITANS
Tennessee won impressively last week, but they did play the Raiders. Against a quality opponent, the Steelers shut down Atlanta in overtime to claim a 15-9 victory. This game comes down to which young quarterback can step up the most: Vince Young or Dennis Dixon. VY has looked better over the last year, but Pittsburgh ultimately has one thing Tennessee doesn’t: Troy Polamalu and his $1 million hair. This game will be decided by a field goal, so I’ll take Pittsburgh and the points.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Dolphins
The Vikings had very little shot last week against the defending champs (Super Bowl champs have won the last 10 season openers), but will stand a much better shot at victory in their home opener. Miami squeaked out a victory against hapless Buffalo, and heading to the Metrodome is no small order. Since Green Bay looks even better then advertised, Minnesota can’t afford to fall 2 games behind them.

PANTHERS (-2.5) over Bucs
These two stats will tell you all you need to know about the Panthers versus the Bucs: the last time the two division rivals faced off, Josh Freeman had five interceptions, and the Panthers averaged 212 yards on the ground in the two matchups last season.

Seahawks (+3.5) over BRONCOS
Seattle and Denver are two of the most average teams in the NFL. They both have uninspiring quarterbacks, exciting young runningbacks, and very new coaches. I don’t take anything out of the 25 point pounding the ‘Hawks laid on San Fran, since the Niners clearly weren’t ready to play against a hyped up Seahawks team. In the end, both teams are excessively average, so I’ll take the hotter team with the points.

Rams (+4.5) over RAIDERS
How can there possibly be two worse matchups in any week then Chiefs/Browns and Rams/Raiders? The fact that someone is going to have to watch both games for a newspaper or TV station is horrifying. Anyways, I’m never giving points with the Raiders, who only have 4 wins in their last 18 home games.

PATRIOTS (+1.5) over Jets
I’d have to guess that Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and the Patriots would love nothing more then to put the Jets in an 0-2 hole to start the season. The offense is finally clicking like it is 2007, and this team is out to prove the world it is the best of the best. Mark Sanchez looks nervous for New York, and Shonn Greene and Braylon Edwards have not shown up at all. I think Moss has a big day, especially since Darrelle Revis called his a “slouch”, and Brady loves to show up people who talk smack about his teammates.

CHARGERS (-7.5) over Jaguars
Is there a worse stadium to go into the Arrowhead Stadium on a Monday night? San Diego historically starts slower then Albert Haynesworth in a conditioning test, so an early season loss in an emotional game for the other team is acceptable. Now that they’re home against the perpetually average Jags, they’ll open their season with a bang.

Texans (-2.5) over REDSKINS
The Redskins got their big win of the year out of the way, now it’s time for them to go back to being 6-10.

COLTS (-5.5) over Giants
Do you really think Peyton is going to be shown up by his little brother at home on Sunday Night Football? Really?

Saints (-4.5) over NINERS
This game is tough to pick. Usually, home teams play much better on primetime, and San Fran can’t play much worse then they did last week. However, they’re playing against the Saints, so I’d have to imagine they’ll be in a shootout, and I can’t see Alex Smith out-scoring Drew Brees. The silver lining for the 49ers? They can still win the division going 7-9.

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 8-8

Bojangles’ Lock o’ the Week: 1-0

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Football is in the Air

Yes, it’s that glorious time of year. Summer is over and the leaves are browning. Well, maybe not yet for those suffering in the near triple degree weather in Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa. Either way, its time to set our fantasy lineups, grab our favorite bag of chips and sit back to watch the great game of football. The distractions of Brett Favre, Darrelle Revis, and Terrell Owens are over and the real games are about to begin.

This year, I’m sticking with picking against the spread and plan on finishing the season better then 131-111. The Lock of the Week will also stay, and I’m excited to announce its unofficial official sponsorship of Bojangles! I’m aiming to end the year with a record good enough to make the NFL playoffs and my Bojangles’ Its Bo Time! Lock of the Weeks to have a better record then the San Diego Chargers. Without further ado, my Week 1 NFL picks. Home teams in CAPS.

SAINTS (-6.5) over Vikings
This game has Saints written all over it. The Super Bowl Champs opening the season at home. Minnesota’s top receiver out. Percy Harvin has migraines. The Saints will be hyped up to prove to the world that they are over their Super Bowl hangover, and they will ride their crowd to a fairly easy victory.

Dolphins (-3.5) over BILLS
The Bills aren’t just bad; they’re dreadful. We’re passed the stage where we can keep saying, “Oh, well if only Trent Edwards had more time to throw!” or “You’d all see how good Trent Edwards is if he had some real weapons!” He doesn’t have any protections, Lee Evans is his only semi-capable receiver, and he is not a good NFL quarterback. The Dolphins have the three best skill position players on the field, and should cruise for their first division win of the year. This is your first ever …. Bojangles Lock of the Week!

BEARS (-6.5) over Lions
This is an inciting game to take the points and go with the Lions; Ndamukong Suh is making his debut and Jeff Schwartz is becoming one of the premier young coaches in the league. However, the Bears won’t be losing their home opener to a team who has won a grand total of 2 games over the last two years. Expect bounce-back years from Matt Forte and Jay Cutler along with a 50% effort from Julius Peppers.

TITANS (-6.5) over Raiders
An 0-6 start crippled the Titans’ season, Tennessee came back after their bye to win 8 of their last 10 games. Vince Young and rookie Kenny Britt helped to balance a rush-first offense, including leading Tennessee to five wins in November with a 96.9 QB rating. The Raiders, on the other hand, are just dysfunctional. They will be better with a gigantic upgrade at quarterback with Jason Campbell (who can actually complete a pass for over 8 yards and doesn’t down cough syrup in Sprite by the bottle). But, then again, Tom the Cable Guy coaches the Raiders. Give me the Titans by over a touchdown.

PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Bengals
Think about this: the last time Randy Moss was in a contract year, he racked up 1493 yards and an NFL record 23 touch down receptions. Ponder this: Tom Brady’s knee injury takes around a year to recover from and an extra year to get back to full speed. Mull this over: the Patriots haven’t lost an opening day game since 2003 and a home opener since 2001. Consider this: Cincinnati has lost their last opening day games. Yeah, I’ll take the Pats and the Hoodie.

Panthers (+7.5) over GIANTS
I don’t get what all the buzz around the Giants is. If not for the luckiest catch in NFL history and a few uncalled holding penalties, Eli Manning would be known as one of the bigger busts of the past decade, a largely inconsistent leader who largely depended on 6’5″ Plaxico Burress. Their defense went from tops in the league two years ago to middle of the pack. Brandon Jacobs started to run standing up. As for the Panthers, they have the best running tandem not just in the league, but in NFL history. Carolina closed Meadowlands Stadium with a 41-9 thrashing of the Giants. I’m putting my money on Carolina christening New Meadowlands Stadium with a big win.

Falcons (-2.5) over STEELERS
Atlanta and Pittsburgh are two of my favorite sleepers this year, but it all comes down to the quarterbacks this year. I really like Dennis Dixon, but his realistic ceiling is rookie season-Vince Young. Matt Ryan has the potential to be a top-5 NFL QB, and I think he’ll take a big step up this year. Coach Mike Tomlin said Big Ben won’t have his job handed to him in Week 6, but after this wake-up call, it shouldn’t be too hard of a decision.

BUCS (-2.5) over Browns
Who cares? Period.

Broncos (+2.5) over JAGUARS

    Josh McDaniels picked Demaryius Thomas for a reason. Then again, he traded a future 1st for Alphonso Smith, only to ship him to Detroit for a 6th rounder one year later.

Josh McDaniels picked Demaryius Thomas for a reason. Then again, he traded a future 1st for Alphonso Smith, only to ship him to Detroit for a 6th rounder one year later.

Which rookie is going the farthest under the radar? You think I’m talking about Tim Tebow since its the Broncos and Jags (and I’m certainly not going to lecture you about Tyson Alualu’s value), but no, its Demaryius Thomas. The first receiver off the board in this April’s draft, Thomas has size (6’3″, 224) and speed (4.39 40-yard dash time) and great hands. Offensive genius Josh McDaniels picked him over highly hyped Dez Bryant for a reason. Demaryius will become a big-time threat soon and a fantasy stud in the next 2 years.

Colts (-3.5) over TEXANS
How many times have we seen this before? Every year for the last four or so seasons, we think THIS is the Texans year. They have promising you talent and as good of a passing attack as anyone. They feed off the bottom feeders, but when they face the big dogs, they crumble. In fact, they’ve lost their last six matchups against Indy, and 15 of their 16 matchups in franchise history. You can take the points; I’ll take the Colts.

SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Niners
This is a tough game to pick because the Niners are clearly better, but Seattle has all of the intangible advantages. Qwest Field, already the loudest stadium in the NFL, will be extra rowdy for Pete Carroll’s first game, plus they’ll be hyped to start the season against a division rival. In a much weaker NFC West, I think Coach Carroll can and will finally find success, starting in Week 1.

EAGLES (+1.5) over Packers
This is another really hard game to pick, and could end up being the best game of the week. The Packers certainly have one of the top offenses in the league led by Aaron Rodgers, but their defense is looking more and more suspect. They lost their top pass rusher Aaron Kampman to the Jags and their secondary is depleted with Al Harris and Atari Bigby on the PUP list. Andy Reid and the Eagles are out to prove that they made the right decision by trading Donovan McNabb within the division and giving the keys to Kevin Kolb, so losing their season opener at home is not on the agenda. Jeremy Maclin should be in for a big game in a tight victory.

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS
Yes, the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Antrel Rolle, and Karlos Dansby, but have you seen these Rams? They’ve won 6 games in the last 3 seasons and drafted just as bad. They’ve punted their last 4 first rounders including two number two picks (Jason Smith, Chris Long, Adam Carriker, and Tye Hill). Also, may have just passed up the best pass rushing lineman since Reggie White. At least Matt Millen hit a homer on Calvin Johnson and a solid double on Roy Williams.

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Usually, I lean towards the home team in a prime time matchup, but I can’t do that here. Dallas is more talented, has better chemistry, and has less Albert Haynesworth-sized locker room problems. Romo is better then McNabb at this point, and he has about twice as many weapons. Between Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten along with the combination of Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice, Romo will have plenty of weapons to choose between to pick apart the average-at-best ‘Skins secondary.

Ravens (+3.5) over JETS
Again, it’s tough to pick against the home team in prime time, but I’m taking Baltimore here. Darrelle Revis probably isn’t in great shape and we don’t know how he’ll fit into the new locker room after sitting out all off-season. The Ravens have the same bloodthirsty defense they’ve always had, just with a very competent offense this time. They go three deep at receiver (Boldin, Mason, and now Houshmandzadeh) with a great runningback tandem in Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. The Jets can definitely talk the talk, but can they walk the walk? Ray Lewis doesn’t think so, and when Ray Lewis speaks, I listen.

CHIEFS (+5.5) over Chargers
Last season, the Chargers went to Oakland for what was supposed to be an easy Monday night win to open the season, but they barely escaped with a 24-20 win. This year, San Diego will be going to Kansas City, but they have a very different team. All-Pros Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill are holding out and Antonio Cromartie is a Jet. Kansas City looks like a team on the verge of success with a great run game, solid young quarterback and plenty of young talent on the other side of the ball. So do I think San Diego can march into Arrowhead Stadium and quiet a raucous crowd on national television by beating them by six points? No.

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Beware of the Kila Monster

Baseball is a game of hope; long seasons allow for plenty of changes atop the division while those stuck at the wrong end of the division can look forward to their young players developing into stars.

Being a Royals fan has very few bright spots. You go into the year hoping to escape the basement and end the year inevitably 30 games out of playoff contention. So, instead of looking forward to the next day’s game, you have to look forward to next season’s stars. We’ve all heard the hype surrounding big-time prospects Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Bryce Harper, but one older prospect is just sneaking under the media’s radar: Kila Ka’aihue.

A man of many nicknames, The Kila Monster is the Tower of Hitting Power

A man of many nicknames, The Kila Monster is the Tower of Hitting Power

Yes, it is finally time for the Royals to unleash the Kila Monster! Kila Ka’aihue (pronounced KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a) is the tower of batting power, and now that he finally has an every day major league job, expect big time production from this Hawaiian slugger. Even though he is 26 years old, Kila Ka’aihue is one of the biggest pure hitting prospects to come out of the Royals’ system in years.

If you take a look at Kila’s numbers, you’ll notice two outstanding features: big power and great discipline. Over the last three seasons, he mashed 78 homers while drawing 294 walks to only 221 strikeouts. Those numbers were clearly deserving of a call to the majors, but despite that production, his road to the show has been a long one.

Drafted out of Iolani High School in the 15th round (438th overall), Kila was an unknown quantity. With his 6’3” muscular frame, he was sure to put up good power numbers, but his contact was far less predictable. That showed in his first three seasons where he only compiled 29 homers with a .244 batting average. While those numbers were well below his expectations, if you dig deeper, a great pattern was starting to emerge: his on-base percentage during the same period was .359!

Coming into his fourth season, Kila still hadn’t amounted to much; he was a poor-fielding first baseman with nice power potential, but below-average contact. The Royals didn’t want him to spend a third consecutive season in Low-A ball, so they promoted him to High-A Burlington, which seemed to do the trick. Kila finally broke through, hitting .304 with 20 homers and 90 runs driven in, amounting to a whopping .428 on-base percentage. In addition to the hitting boost, Kila also walked as many times as he struck out, after compiling 63 more whiffs than free passes in his pro career.

With his confidence higher then ever, Kila received a promotion to AA Wichita, hoping to build upon a career season. However, he couldn’t flip the switch, and had the worst year ever. Kila couldn’t catch up to advanced pitching and stumbled along to a paltry .199 with just 21 extra base hits. But still, he was able to reach base at an extraordinary rate — .304 to be exact.

It was clear that Kila wasn’t able to hit well in AA, so the Royals sent him back to High-A. The Royals lit a fire under Kila , and he nearly returned to his top form from two years back. After 60 games, Kansas City had seen enough – a .251 batting average, but 9 homers and a .360 OBP – and he earned a ticket back to Wichita.

Kila’s second stint in AA was much more successful; he doubled his home run output, raising his batting average and on-base percentage around 50 points in fewer than 100 at-bats.  He finished the season with a career high in homers, but he was 23 years old, stuck at AA, and his best days were potentially behind him.

We all know the cliché, “third time’s a charm,” and this was certainly the case for Kila. During his third stint in AA, Kila erupted for 26 homers, a .314 average, and .463 OBP, while drawing nearly double as many walks as Ks (80 to 41) in just 376 at-bats. Kansas City elevated him to AAA, and the power surge continued.

With just over a month left to go in the minor league season, Kila launched 11 more homers while maintaining a .316 average and a .439 on-base percentage.  Kila was so good that he earned a September call-up, where he hit one homer in 24 plate appearances, hitting .286 with a .375 OBP. More importantly, he ended the season with a sensational 1.085 OPS, something only Albert Pujols could duplicate that season.

Even after having a monstrous offensive season – the best season of his short career – the Royals opted to use Mike Jacobs and Mitch Maier instead of the Kila Monster. Still stuck in AAA, Kila continued to put up gaudy power numbers, but this time his batting average shrunk back to his 2002-04 form: .252. But despite his problems creating consistent contact, Kila managed to maintain a .392 on-base percentage and drew 17 more walks the strikeouts (102-85). Even though he was having trouble consistently getting hits, he was reaching base regularly and showing great plate discipline.

Now it is 2010, and Kila is in his third AAA stint. Kila is 25 years old, and his major league prospects are shrinking. Whether it is job insecurity, or his aclimation to AAA pitching, Kila got his stuff together. He launched 24 home runs in 94 games, posting a .314 batting average, .463 OBP, and again breaking the 1.000 OPS barrier. Kila also drew 88 walks to only 69 strikeouts, earning him a May callup to the big leagues.

Unfortunately for Kila, his stint with the Royals was a short-lived one. After 12 games, he only got one start and finished with just an RBI single in 4 at-bats. Kila spent the next two and a half months in AAA Omaha before he earned another call-up at the start of August.

On August 13, the Royals traded hot-headed designated hitter Jose Guillen to the Giants, clearing the way for Kila to own an every-day job. Over the next three games, Kila responded by getting 5 hits, scoring 2 runs, and knocking one more in.

The big lefty slugger represents a better future for the Royals. Playing alongside promising youngsters Billy Butler, Mike Aviles, Alex Gordon, and Mitch Maier, Kansas City looks to take back the AL Central with a youth movement.

Even though the Kila Monster has yet to catch on in the majors, he has taken his time to find success at nearly every level of the minor leagues. It took him three years to hit well at AA, and it took him three years to succeed in AAA. Next season will be his third in the majors, so beware of the Kila Monster.

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A Salute to the King

He wanted to. He really, truly wanted to. LeBron James wanted to play for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Deep down, LeBron wanted to be a Cav. He never wanted to leave his home state, and he never wanted to become the single most hated man in the state of Ohio. But he couldn’t come back, and it’s not his fault. The Cavaliers management just couldn’t give him a winner.

Sure, LeBron has never had a true sidekick. Antawn Jamison? Shaq? Mo Williams? Come one now. Sure, LeBron has never really come through in the clutch (yes, I saw that fist pump, Skip Bayless). Yes, he made it to the finals, but he was swept. Yes, he hit a buzzer beater in the Eastern Conference Finals, but if he didn’t make that prayer-of-a-shot, the Magic would have swept the Cavs.

You may not have liked The Decision, but all of the procedes went to the Boys and Girls Club of America

You may not have liked The Decision, but all of the procedes went to the Boys and Girls Club of America

But everyone has flaws. LBJ is a narcissistic egomaniac. Did he really need a 1-hour ESPN special to rip the heart out of his hometown? No, but what NBA player doesn’t have big fat Sean May-sized ego? LeBron meant well when he set up the press conference with all proceeds going not to the LeBron James Bank Account Fund, but to the Boys and Girls Club of America.

LeBron wasn’t just in a lose-lose situation last Thursday night; he was in a lose-lose-lose-lose-lose-lose situation. If James chose the Knicks, Nyets, or the Clippers, he would have been looked at as a money grabber who is more about money, fame, and publicity then winning. If he chose Chicago, he would always be looked at as a lesser Michael Jordan, always hidden in the shadow of the Greatest of all Time. If he went back to Cleveland, he’d be taking the most money and succumb to staying on a franchise doomed to mediocrity.

Miami was the logical choice. Without any teammate close to the caliber of Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, LeBron managed to drag his team along to 61 wins. Mo Williams was his best sidekick. That’s enough said. Cleveland had plenty of chances to keep LeBron by pairing him up with another star. Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison just won’t cut it. The fact that GM Danny Ferry refused to trade Wally Szczerbiak’s $13 million expiring contract for a true star was inexcusable, instead opting to stay with the same old group of depressing players like Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and Joe Smith.

Bosh and Wade had next to no help on their respective teams, yet won a combined 87 games. None of these three superstar players have played alongside someone near the caliber of their new teammates. The only time one of them ever teamed up to a high quality player, Shaq was joining forces with D-Wade and Miami won the NBA Championship.

Joining Miami, not Chicago, represented LeBron’s best chance to win. Derrick Rose will one day be a superstar, but he, Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer don’t have anything on D-Wade and Chris Bosh. LeBron tried to build a championship team in Cleveland when he asked Bosh to join forces. Toronto even told the Cavs’ brass that they would send their superstar big man to Cleveland, but Bosh just didn’t want to go. But in the end, LeBron chose to join up to create the most talented team in decades, instead of just being on another contender in Chicago or Cleveland.

As much as fans and media want to rail on LeBron, he did a noble thing. He put winning before money. We are always witness to players going to the biggest paycheck and avoid high-pressure situations, but LeBron took less money to play for a winner. Isn’t that what we always ask of athletes? The King just wanted to run the basketball world with two of his best friend.

(As a side note, how many best friends does LeBron have? I though Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony were his best friends. What about all his high school buds, Jay-Z, World Wide Wes, and Maverick Carter?)

There is no doubt that Miami will succeed; they have three of the top players in the game along with several key role players. James, Wade, and Bosh averaged 80.3 points, 17.5 assists, and 22.9 points per game, but they have plenty of help on hand. Mike Miller shot an unreal 50.1% from the field including 48% from beyond the arch? Do you think he’ll get some open looks? With Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony, and Juwan Howard down low, rebounding shouldn’t be too big of an issue.

LeBron James is 25. He’s a grown man. LeBron can make his own decisions. He doesn’t owe anything to Cleveland, a city that ultimately can’t couldn’t give him what he really wanted: a championship and to become a global icon. Miami is an international city with better weather and a better winning opportunity. He gave his home state 7 years of high quality basketball and entertainment. But in the end, Miami provided more opportunities to LeBron.

So, now, I give a salute to King James. Thank you for making the right choice to join up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Sure, he’ll never be Michael Jordan at this rate, but that’s really never who he’s been. LeBron can now take on the role of Magic Johnson, a role he could never play in Cleveland since he had no great scoring sidekick. With Wade, Bosh, and Company alongside, LBJ can be a fantastic distributor and a triple-double threat every time he steps on the court. Even if he’ll always have one less ring then D-Wade, he can still be the most transcendent player in a generation of basketball, or more.

In addition to bringing a brand new contender to the NBA, LeBron also brings remarkable hype to the entire sport. When Heat training camp opens, all eyes will be on how this team gels and distributes the ball. When pre-season rolls around, Miami will draw unprecedented ratings and attention to the sport. SportsCenter will open every day with the Heat, and when they lose, NBA insiders will have to scramble for answers as to how this dream team lost.

Colin Cowherd, an ESPN Radio personality is one of the bigger NBA proponents at the Four-Letter Network, yet he never talks about the season until the All-Star Break approaches. With NBA superpowers in Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and Orlando, the NBA will be more popular then baseball in the summer of ’98 and it will highlight nearly every sports talk radio station. The Heat will sell out every arena they play at, and every team they play will give them their best punch — giving us the best basketball there is to see.

Not only has LeBron started a new trend in viewership and interest in the NBA, but he also started a trend among athletes. After seeing what the King could do, Chris Paul offered the idea of starting his own Big Three in New York of himself, Carmelo Anthony, and Amare Stoudemire. Chris Paul has done wonders for the city of New Orleans, but ultimately, it would help the game of basketball if he were teamed up with another superstar (or two) in a big market. The same is true for why Bosh had to leave Toronto and LeBron had to leave Cleveland.

Over the last month, LeBron James has manned up. He left money on the table to play for the team with the best winning opportunity. When his former boss ripped him for his “cowardly behavior”, LeBron was the bigger man, saying, “I think it’s unfortunate that he did that … But Dan and whoever his partners are have to look themselves in the mirror and understand what he may have done may have cost them in the long run.”

LeBron grew up over the past month; he left the city of his childhood for a better opportunity. In the same way that each of us jump for the best job opportunity or situation, LBJ is moving on up. So, no matter how many over-enthusiastic fans call you out or media members want to rip you, I salute you, King James.

Categories: NBA | Leave a comment

NFL Draftermath, Part II

Whenever someone talks about collegiate sports, they almost always use the term “student-athletes” for the players. However, most of us know that the better phrase to use would be “athlete-students,” if not just “athlete.” Kentucky’s basketball team had an average GPA of 2.025, and most one-and-done basketball players don’t attend classes after their season ends. But not everyone is collegiate sports is a class-skipping, frat-partying, scholastic underachiever; one true scholar-athlete sticks out from the rest, Myron Rolle.

You won't find a better Rolle Model then Myron

You won't find a better Rolle Model then Myron

If you’re looking for a player who symbolizes “student-athlete”, you’ll be hard pressed to find one better the Myron Rolle. Rolle graduated Florida State after two and a half years with every pre-med requirement and a bachelor’s degree in Exercise Science with a 3.75 GPA. In his junior year, he applied for the Rhodes Scholarship, as he wants to be a neurosurgeon after his NFL career, but his interview was scheduled on a key ACC matchup between his Seminoles and the Maryland Terrapins. He chose to go Birmingham, Alabama for his interview and fly back to the game and play mid-way through.  Florida State crushed Maryland 37-3 and he won one of the 32 Rhodes Scholarships.

Going into the draft last year, he was projected to be a late first- or early second-round draft pick. Valuing his education and looking past his athletic career, Rolle attended Oxford. Ultimately, this hurt his draft stock because teams question his commitment to the game and how long he will be able to play. So in the end, he fell to the sixth-round and into the laps of the Tennessee Titans.

Myron Rolle belongs to a prestigious football family, one that has produced many NFL players, including Pro Bowl corner back Samari Rolle and Pro Bowl safety Antrel Rolle. Myron has the potential to be the same caliber of player. He started as a freshman at FSU, where he earned All-American honors. At 6″2″ 215, Rolle certainly has the size to be a great NFL Safety, and his 4.59 40 time only helps.

So here we have a Rhodes Scholar All-American student-athlete entering the NFL Draft. He is mature, smart, and athletic. Somehow he falls to the 207th pick in the draft, the 15th safety drafted. Football IQ is always stressed by coaches because nothing gets on their nerves like someone forgetting a play or where they are supposed to go. Smart players make smart plays and almost always know exactly where to be. One stray defender could be the difference a win and a crushing loss.

He is a team leader. Again, a valuable trait, leadership can be hard to find, especially on defense. Most of the fire and motivation comes from the middle linebacker, but oftentimes you’ll need more then just that. Smart players and tough players make their teammates better, they work together and make the team stronger.

Clearly one of the biggest stories of the draft, Myron Rolle can only be disappointed that he fell this far in the draft. He was the top recruit in his class and showcased his talent throughout his three years as a Seminole. But instead, he keeps his head high. He knows that teams want a committed player over a character player, but all it takes to become a Pro Bowler or even more is determination and hard work. Myron Rolle now has a chip on his shoulder and a reason to prove his doubters wrong.

When the Titans took a “chance” on a talented safety in the sixth round of the draft, they inherited a great man, a great teammate, and a great player. Even if Myron Rolle only plays for three, four, five years, that is still longer the any other draft pick they took this season, and he will already have made a mark on their community.

Each team needs a Myron Rolle. Not necessarily a Rhodes Scholar, but a great person, and smart person, someone who can lift up the football community and work for a greater cause. Myron and his family are opening a free health services clinic in his family’s home nation of the Bahamas, and he does much more for the community.

We’ve all seen the NCAA commercials, “Most of us go pro in something other than sports.” Sure, most of those are curling players from University of Wyoming and archers from Southwest Missouri State, but you know what, it’s still true. And Myron Rolle will be lucky enough to go pro in both.

Myron Rolle is the perfect — well — Rolle Model for every young athlete out there. You need to work hard on and off the field, and make sure you stay out of trouble. You can be the valedictorian of your class while winning a Heisman or other prestigious awards. You can be the star athlete and star student you want to be. It’s all a matter of will.

Categories: NFL | 2 Comments

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