Red Flags, Good Vibes, and Broken Records

I’ll be honest. Last week was rough. I’m down 120 apples, largely thanks to the Patriots straight up losing my Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week straight up, as the Cardinals won and covered by 15.5 points. Not pretty.

But this week is going to be better, and I can feel it. I can feel it so well, I’m skipping straight to the picks; home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

BEARS (-7.5) over Rams
Are the Rams legit? They beat the Redskins and almost took down the Lions before that. But despite their futile effort against the Packers, the one thing I do know is that the Bears are legit. And if they want to stay at that level, they need to take care of business at home.

Bengals (-3) over REDSKINS
As much as I love RG3, you get docked points for losing to the Rams. I really want to like the Redskins, but losing Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker is just killer.

Eagles (-3.5) over CARDINALS
This is one of those picks I make every week where I know I’m picking the wrong team. The Cards are getting points at home after beating the Patriots and Seahawks. They’ve won 9 of their last 11. But Mike Vick! Dream Team! Ahhhhh!

SAINTS (-8.5) over Chiefs
Fool me once, Saints, shame on you. Fool me twice, Saints, shame on me. Fool me thrice, Saints…… no the Saints can’t possibly blow this home game and start the year 0-3.

BROWNS (+3) over Bills
Even though the Bills blew out the Chiefs, their defense got lit up by Matt Cassel and Peyton Hillis. The Chiefs had more total offense, and the Bills have given up an average of 32.5 points per game. I’ll take the points.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

PANTHERS (+1) over Giants
I jumped on this line early Tuesday morning, and it swung four points in the opposite direction to Panthers -3 in the matter of two days. That should’ve been a red flag to take the Giants and the points and run.

Buccaneers (+8) over COWBOYS
The Bucs may be an alright team this year, and the Cowboys did not show any signs of looking alright in Seattle last week. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Cowboys won, but I’m not ready to lay 8 points on a team that got steamrolled by Golden Tate and the Seahawks.

Patriots (+2.5) over RAVENS
I’m always a fan of the Patriots and points! New England has only lost 3 back-to-back games since 2003, and I can’t imagine Bill Belichick giving his players an easy week. This is the game of the week, easy.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS
The Falcons are the better team, they’re getting points, and the Chargers are often slow to start the season. This seems like a storm of good vibes for Atlanta.

Texans (-2) over BRONCOS
Peyton Manning is definitely not 100%. Case and point? Denver warmed up rookie Brock Osweiler at the end of last Monday’s game in case they had to run a Hail Mary. Peyton’s arm just isn’t the same.

KFC Double Down Games:

Jets (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
I really whiffed on the Dolphins game last week. Oakland went from a Monday night game the week before to a game that started at 10 AM West Coast time in the Miami heat in black uniforms. Well this week I’m not whiffing. The Jets are just better than the Dolphins.

Lions (-3.5) over TITANS
Chris Johnson has been so bad this season running the ball, that the Titans should seriously consider making him more of a wide receiver. The man is averaging 1.1 yards per carry; he’s just been ineffective running between the tackles. But if Tennessee lets him loose in the open field as a dual-threat receiver-running back, he could be more valuable.

My new favorite pastime might become picking against Blaine Gabbert.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars
I may sound like a broken record, but it’s going to take more than three points to get me to pick Blaine Gabbert.

Packers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
I’m definitely warming up to the Seahawks this year, but if you asked someone at the start of the year what the line for a Packers-Seahawks game would be, it would be more like Packers by 7 or 8 than Packers by a field goal.

Steelers (-4) over OAKLAND
Darren McFadden hasn’t been good this season, and Carson Palmer is still Oakland’s quarterback. That should be enough.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Niners (-6.5) over VIKINGS
Why isn’t this line double digits? The Niners are clearly the best team in the NFL right now, and the Vikings just lost to the Colts. This game might just be the lock of the century.

Overall record: 11-19-2

Last week: 4-10-2

Apple Total: -65

Apple Total Last Week: -120

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