NFL

I love this new system! Week One of the NFL season, I went 7-9, but you know what? I ended up making 55 apples on the week. My not-so-great trend of average predictions in overall games is continuing, but I’m picking the right games correctly. And in the end, It’s the apples that matter.

Just as a recapper from last week, I’m putting 5 apples on the Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games, 10 apples on the Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games, 20 apples on the KFC Double Down Games, and 50 whopping apples on the Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week. Because I’m definitely not betting real money. Betting is illegal.

Without further ado, here are my Week 2 picks. Home teams, as always, are in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

GIANTS (-7) over Buccaneers
The Giants are good, right? Because if they are, they’d better beat the Bucs by at least a touchdown.

Chiefs (+3) over BILLS
Both teams are bad, so you take the points, right? Well the Bills were exposed against the Jets (or maybe the Jets were exposed as contenders), although the Chiefs didn’t look so hot themselves last week. But with a bad quarterback and a second-string running back, I just don’t see the Bills winning by more than a field goal.

Vikings (-3) over COLTS
Both teams are bad, so you take the points, right? Well we have two young quarterbacks, and although one clearly has a brighter future than the other, only one team has Adrian “Truck Stick” Peterson.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Titans
I’m a buyer of the Chargers this year (they have the same 9-7 team they always have, why are expectations lowered?), and I’m a seller of the Titans. I’m very confident the Chargers will win at home, but I’m not totally sold they’ll win by a touchdown.

Jets (+5.5) over STEELERS
Yes, the Jets are no longer in Buffalo, but maybe they’re actually good. Or maybe the Steelers just aren’t that great. Or maybe I’m just trying to hedge my bet and be happy with either the Jets losing or me winning the game. The world may never know.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Bears (+5) over PACKERS
Are the Packers really this good? Cedric Benson shouldn’t be a starting running back in the NFL, and Green Bay’s defense just is not good. The Bears looked fantastic next week with Brandon Marshall looking like the Brandon Marshall of Denver, and Matt Forte is still doing Matt Forte things. Even if the Bears lose, I think they’ll keep it close.

Ravens (+2.5) over EAGLES
The Ravens are the better team; why are they getting points in this game? Maybe I’m missing something…

Broncos (+3) over FALCONS
If we learned anything last week, it’s that you should never go against Peyton Manning on national television. Well, at least until he makes the playoffs.

One of the secretly awesome things about this week is what’s going to happen at the end of the Niners-Lions game. Will there be a normal handshake between the coaches? Maybe a WWE-style brawl? There are just so many possibilities.

NINERS (-7) over Lions
San Francisco is my Super Bowl pick for the NFC, and boy did they look good last week. A great defense, a suddenly good offense, what’s not to like? On the other hand, the Lions barely eeked out a win against the lowly Rams, and Kevin Smith is still their only running back.

BENAGLS (-7) over Browns
This is a lot of points to give up for a team that won’t win their division, but the Browns are also terrible. I still can’t believe the Browns traded back into the first round to draft a 28-year old quarterback. He’s older than Aaron Rodgers! Weeden turns 29 in a months, and Andrew Luck–the first pick in the same draft–won’t turn 29 for 72 months.

KFC Double Down Games:

Saints (-2.5) over PANTHERS
We have an interesting story in this game because a replacement ref was removed from this game because his Facebook page said he was a big Saints fan. With replacement ref help or not, the Saints are still a much better team than the Panthers, and there’s no way a team this charismatic will open the season with two straight losses to not-so-hot teams.

Raiders (-2) over DOLPHINS
The Raiders may not be great, but boy are the Dolphins bad. I’ve been pretty vocal about how below average I think Carson Palmer is, but Ryan Tannehill doesn’t even make it to that mark. And in the end, only one team has Darren McFadden. He’s a whole lot better than Reggie Bush.

Texans (-7) over JAGUARS
I’m still not picking Blaine Gabbert unless he’s getting double digit points. Plain and simple. Plus the Texans are actually a good team.

Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Ahh Tony Romo returns to Seattle for the first time since he botched the PAT snap in the playoffs. Things have changed since then, though, we’ve seen the iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS, 4, 4S, and 5, and the Seahawks get worse. The Cowboys may not have gotten a whole lot better since that fateful night, but they’re more than 3 points better than the Seahawks now.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS
Want to know a little secret? The Rams just aren’t that good. And Robert Griffin III might just be that good.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Cardinals
Yes, the Patriots are my Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week again! Last week was easy since they were somehow only favored by 5.5 points; now they’re almost favored by two touchdowns. But I’m oh so confident in this pick not just because I think the Patriots are the best team in the NFL. I’m also confident because the Cardinals have a very ugly quarterback situation paired up nicely with a very ugly running back situation. And without a particularly defense, the Patriots are just going to run up the score at home.

Overall record: 7-9

Last week: 7-9

Apple Total: 55

Apple Total Last Week: 55

The NFL is back with or without their normal referees, so it’s time to bring back my weekly picks. This time, though, I’m doing my picks with a twist.

Last season didn’t end up too well, and I’ve got a new system for picking games. Instead of just picking games by the spread, I’ll be picking games and putting apples on each game (betting money is illegal, remember?).

I’m also happy to announce four new unofficially official sponsors of my weekly picks. They fit into my four categories of games: the Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week, KFC Double Down Games, Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games, and Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games will be worth 10 apples. Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games will be worth (yup, you guessed it) half that value–5 apples. KFC Double Down Games will be worth 20 apples, and the Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week will be worth a whopping 50 apples. At the end of the season, hopefully I won’t be in apple debt.

I’ll be keeping track of my record each week, but more importantly the apple total. Without further ado, here are my Week 1 picks:

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

TEXANS (-12) over Dolphins
Matt Barkley really screwed the Dolphins over by not declaring for the NFL draft. Then again, the Dolphins really screwed themselves over by reaching for Ryan Tannehill. Without Brandon Marshall or a real quarterback, I don’t see any way for the Dolphins to win this game. The only question is if the Texans will keep their foot on the gas the whole game.

Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener were best friends and roommates at Stanford, now Fleener will likely be Andrew Luck’s favorite target. Fantasy sleeper alert!

BEARS (-10) over Colts
I love the Bears this year, especially with the reunion of the aforementioned Brandon Marshall with Jay Cutler and coach Jeremy Bates. However, I’m hesitant to take the Bears to win by more than ten because 1) I’ve seen too many games where Chicago’s offense just does not show up and 2) Andrew Luck is really good–good enough to keep this game close with a garbage time comeback.

LIONS (-7.5) over Rams
This is the third straight game I’m taking the big favorite, but I’m not completely sold they will cover. The Lions don’t have much of a running game with Jahvid Best on the PUP list and Mikel Leshoure suspended, but their passing attack is so lethal. And on the other hand, the Rams’ offense is rather innocuous.

Eagles (-9) over BROWNS
How can you not pick the Dream Team, right? Well, more like how can you pick the Browns.

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS
I absolutely love the Ravens, but I can’t say for sure they’ll win by more than a touchdown. Without Terrell Suggs, Baltimore’s defense will still sizzle, but their offense still isn’t fantastic. Plus, Cincinnati’s offense is only getting better with the upgrade from Cedric “Three Yards Per Carry” Benson to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and another year’s progression for A.J. Green and Andy Dalton.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Steelers (+1.5) over BRONCOS
The Broncos beat the Steelers in the playoffs last year with Tim Tebow, but this is a new season. I’d like to see Peyton Manning take a few hits in a real game before taking Denver to win a game against a strong team with a strong defense.

Bills (+3) over JETS
Both teams are very average, so I’m taking the points. Plus with Mario Williams in the fold, the Jets’ already shaky quarterbacks should be even less inspiring than normal. For a divisional game with two potential wild card teams, this is going to be a terribly boring game.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Redskins
No Sean Payton, no problem. Well sort of. I’m expecting a huge game from Drew Brees and Jonathan Vilma as a form of an F-You to the league. New Orleans will want to prove that they can still win without their head coach, and now that their players aren’t suspended… look out.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Jaguars
I’m going to need more than 3.5 points to pick Blaine Gabbert and Rashad Jennings.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys
(Thoughts from Wednesday night) I really want to pick the Cowboys–partially because I just do not like the Giants–but New York’s passing attack and pass rush should be too much for Dallas on the road.

KFC Double Down Games:

Panthers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Panthers have a far superior quarterback, a better running game, better defensive playmakers, and most importantly more swagger. In other news, the Bucs are in serious trouble because they’re the only team in the NFC without an elite quarterback. Josh Freeman may eventually become elite, but that’s not happening in Week 1.

Falcons (-3) over CHIEFS
I’m in no way a fan of the Chiefs this year if for no other reason than Matt Cassel is their quarterback. Matt Ryan is actually a great quarterback–at least in the regular season–and he has too many offensive weapons (Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, not to mention Michael Turner and the great Jacquizz Rodgers) to blow this early season game.

49ers (+5) over PACKERS
Both division-winners had big problems, but the Niners did a better job of addressing their problem. Alex Smith now has Randy Moss, A.J. Jenkins, Mario Manningham, and LaMichael James added to his arsenal, and the Niners defense is as strong as ever. I’m not saying San Fran will run away with this game, but I certainly don’t see them losing by more than 5.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over Seahawks
Normally my rule for NFC West games is to just take the points if the 49ers aren’t involved, but I have more reason to take the Cardinals. I don’t trust 5’11” 23-year old Russell Wilson, and I’m not convinced he’ll be any better of a pro than short college stars Troy Smith and Dennis Dixon.

Chargers (+1) over RAIDERS
Since when did Carson Palmer deserve to be favored over a team ran by Philip Rivers? Rivers clearly is no Big Ben or Eli, but he deserves a whole lot more respect here.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Patriots (-5.5) over TITANS
The Pats addressed their offense with Brandon Lloyd (they haven’t had a true downfield threat since Randy Moss) and added to their defense with Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones. And all they lost was… BenJarvus Green-Ellis? Why aren’t they Super Bowl favorites? They should be favored over a team run by Jake Locker by at least eight points.

Overall record: 0-0

Last week: 0-0

Apple Total: 0

Net Apples Last Week: 0

Most people look at Super Bowl XLVI as a quest for revenge, as if Bill Belichick has spent the past two weeks devising ways to disembowel the entire Giants team. But truth be told, this game isn’t about the Patriots getting back at the Giants. Not one bit.

Plain and simple: the Patriots will never be able to make up for losing to New York in Super Bowl XLII. There is absolutely nothing they can do to the Giants or any other team to reconcile the fact that they lost a perfect season that fateful night. Not even three straight Super Bowl blowout victories over Eli and the Giants could make up for a lost perfect season. That team represented more than just a fourth ring for Brady and Belichick, it represented perfection and the greatest team assembled.

But, of course, we all know how things turned out. David Tyree’s catch has been played approximately fifty billion times on ESPN in the past two weeks alone, and the Patriots went from invincible to shockingly human in the playoffs. But here we are, four years later, and the Patriots are meeting the Giants again in the playoffs.

It’s a nice storyline to say that the Patriots want revenge, but that’s not what’s going on here. Fans almost always overblow professional rivalries, and many of the key players from the 2007-08 aren’t on their teams any more. Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Randy Moss, and Laurence Maroney are all gone offensively, and that’s not even mentioning the change in offensive philosophies for the Giants. Four years ago, the running game was the focal point of the offense, averaging 134 yards per game behind Earth (Brandon Jacobs), Wind (Derrick Ward), and Fire (Ahmad Bradshaw). Now, Ward is gone, and they average a league-low 89.2 yards rushing per game.

Back in the day, the Patriots weren’t just known for having a potent offense. Behind Richard Seymour, Tedi Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Adalius Thomas, Ty Warren, and Asante Samuel, they had the fourth ranked defense in the league. But now? They have a bend-don’t-break mentality with one of the worst secondaries in league history.

Aside from Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and a handful of players on either side of the ball, these teams are completely different. This isn’t about revenge, it’s about which team is the better team. If anything, the motivation factor is the Patriots being called out by the Giants.

Despite being three-point favorites over New York, the Patriots are big underdogs in this game. The Giants are talking like they’ve already won the big game, and even a majority of experts are picking them to win. But that’s not how I see it.

At the beginning of season, Eli Manning said he belonged in the same conversation as Tom Brady in terms of elite quarterbacks. I’ll admit, I laughed at that. But he’s proved that he belongs in the top-10 at the very least. However, he’s still not even close to joining the league of Tom Brady. Brady is deadly accurate with a long history of playoff success.

Brady has a 15-5 playoff record with a 62.1 completion percentage and 30 TDs to 18 interceptions? And Eli? He’s 5-3 with a 57.8 completion percentage and 10 TDs to 7 INTs. Brady also has the pedigree of playing in four Super Bowls.

But that is all the past. The demons of 2008 are gone, and it’s all about who can play the best over 60 minutes.

I don’t expect anything fancy from the Patriots. I expect a lot of easy passes to Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski, and lots of handoffs to The Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. BJGE has never fumbled the ball, and if the Patriots don’t turn over the ball, they’ve got a great chance to win.

In the end, I don’t think Eli Manning has what it takes to out-duel Tom Brady in the big game. The Giants don’t have the same defense that knocked around Brady last time around–they don’t have the secondary to stop Welker, Hernandez, and the 6’7″ monster named Gronkowski. The Patriots may be weak of defense, but they’ve come up big when it matters worse.

The Patriots aren’t going to win this game because they want to get back for the last time around. They’re going to win because Bill Belichick prepares them better, because Tom Brady will take apart the Giants’ secondary piece by piece, and because they’re fighting for the memory of Myra Kraft.

The Giants are a good team, but they’re not Patriots great.

Patriots 27 Giants 20

I didn’t post a blog about the playoffs last week since I was out of town, but have no fear, my picks are here! Home teams in CAPS.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens

You could call the Patriots lucky. The Broncos knocked out the Steelers, the Giants took down the Packers, and the Niners shocked the Saints. All of a sudden, the Patriots could win the Super Bowl by beating Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, and Alex Smith. Then again, you could call the Patriots unlucky because they’ve never had this much pressure on them to win the Super Bowl.

Of course I have to include Tim Tebow in a football column!

Not only are the Patriots by far the best team left in the playoffs, they possibly have to exorcize demons from their 18-1 season. They’ve also just won one playoff game since that fateful loss to the Giants. But let’s not get too caught up in minor details; let’s get to the breakdown.

The Patriots are clearly the more talented team. Plain and simple. But one thing scares me about this game: New England has a strange propensity to spot the other team big points early. In the last three regular season games, they’ve spotted the Broncos, Dolphins, and Bills  7, 17, and 221 points before putting points on the board themselves. The last two games were even at home. And this would become even more problematic if they do this against the Ravens.

It’s not just that they’d be giving up points to the Ravens, spotting Baltimore points early on would put the Patriots right where the Ravens want them. Their offense works best when Ray Rice is getting most of the touches. If the Ravens are way ahead, they’ll want to control the clock by pounding the ball–straight into the 17th ranked rush defense. The way the Patriots can nearly assure a win is if they can force Joe Flacco to beat them. Which he can’t.

But I don’t expect the Patriots to fall behind early. As tough as it will be for the Pats to contain Ray Rice, I can’t envision any way the Ravens can stop Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Their linebacking core is too old, and the secondary is too small. And even if they do find some magic powder and cover those two, they won’t have enough players to stop Wes Welker.

In the end, Tom Brady just doesn’t lose at home, and he doesn’t lose in the snow. The Ravens are a little too old on defense, and I can’t see them stopping Tom Terrific.

Giants (+2.5) over NINERS

Right off the bat, I’ll tell you this: I think the 49ers are going to win this game. I’m taking the Giants with the points, however, because I think this game will be very close.

After Cam Newton, no player surprised me more this year than Eli Manning. I’ve made more than my fair of (mostly-deserved) Manning jokes, but to his credit, he has completed most of his passes. Tim Tebow can’t say that. He has the sixth best passing yardage in a season, which is a surprise considering his lack of Brady Hair.

This Giants team was a big surprise to me. If Jason Garrett didn’t ice his own kicker, they wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Yet, they made it. And they even have the same formula as the 2007 Super Bowl Champion team. I still don’t love the team, though, because I don’t trust the running game, I don’t trust the quarterback, and I don’t trust their red-faced coach.

But let’s not forget about the Niners. After all, I am picking them to make the Super Bowl. Coach John Harbaugh has turned Alex Smith into Andrew Luck-lite: a QB who can hand the ball off to a great running game and make all the passes when he’s needed. That may not sound like Andrew Luck, but look up Stanford’s games, and that’s exactly what his role was.

The Niners were as shocking as any team, yet they really shouldn’t be a surprise. They have an outstanding defense, and great running game, and enough offense through the air to beat you. It’s what the Giants should have, except Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have just disappeared this year.

This game should be close, and I’m not sure it’ll be a lot of fun. My best guess is that with about four minutes left, there will be less than 35 total points on the board, and one team will have to make the winning drive. And I believe that team will be San Francisco. Harbaugh has his team playing so hard for him–I think he has one last magical run in this overachieving team. I think the Niners will pull this one out in the last minute–not so far off from what they did against the Saints–but they’ll win by two or less.

Last Week: 2-2

Playoffs: 4-4

What a great season we just had. A team nearly went undefeated, and another almost went defeated. Brett Favre declined an invitation from the Texans and Bears to come back, and Mark Sanchez declined an invitation to be a starting quarterback next season. Oh, and do you even remember there being a lockout? It seems like ages ago.

I’ll just cut to the chase, here are my NFL Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.

TEXANS (-3) over Bengals

As an NFL fan, it’s really sad that the season Houston finally makes the playoffs, they lost their start quarterback and pass rusher for the year. Defensively, they’re still fine with Brian Cushing, J.J. Watt, DeMeco Ryans, and Johnathan Joseph, but the offense is hurting considerably.

The Texans had the second best rushing attack in the game to match Matt Schaub’s prolific air attack, giving Houston one of the best rounded offenses in the league. But now with T.J. Yates at the helm, teams can put seven and eight and nine men in the box to force him to pass. Yates is 2-3 as a starter with 158 yards passing per game and 3 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He’s far from good, but he’s not Jake Delhomme bad.

With that in mind, you’d think that the Texans would be a pushover at home. But they’re not playing the Steelers. They’re not even playing the Broncos. They’re playing the Bengals.

Most people thought the Bengals were headed to another year of mediocrity, and if you had suggested they’d make the playoffs, I’d have called you crazy. In fact, I may or may not have picked them to go 3-13 this year. But their 9-7 record is deceiving, and I’ll tell you why.

The 17-week NFL season is a marathon, but since each team only plays sixteen games, a couple of wins can really distort a team’s record. Cincinnati had a horrific strength of schedule (facing the Browns twice, the NFC West, and the AFC South), while only beating one team with a winning record: 9-7 Tennessee.

The Bengals had seven games against playoffs teams and struck out. In fact, they were out-scored 171-113. Andy Dalton isn’t good, he’s a fine game manager with a great defense. Cedric Benson isn’t a good running back, he just gets over 19 touches per game. The Bengals aren’t good, they’ve just feasted off of sub-par competition.

SAINTS (-9.5) over Lions

What’s more embarrassing than losing to a team that lays down in front of you? Letting their backup quarterback set a franchise record with 480 passing yards. So now I pose this question to you: if the Lions let Matt Flynn walk all over them, how much damage will Drew Brees do to them?

And you thought I couldn't work SpongeBob into a sports blog...

To be frank, I don’t think that this game will be very close. Then again, I thought that the Saints would absolutely run over the Seahawks in the first round last year. But that’s beside the point. The Lions defense is more porous than SpongeBob right now, and Drew Brees is more precise than an LA plastic surgeon. So instead of discussing why the Saints will run away with this game, I’ll discuss which team has a better shot at downing the Packers: the Saints or Niners.

It sounds almost crazy, discussing Drew Brees and Alex Smith in the same sentence. But the discussion is not exactly which quarterback is more likely to take down the Packers, but rather which team has a better show. These teams are very different: the Saints are an overpowering offensive team and the Niners are a pound-you-till-you’re-out aggressive team. We’ve seen the Saints already lose to the Packers in Week 1, but they came as close to beating Green Bay as anyone did without winning.

But while we’ve seen the Saints against Green Bay, we haven’t see San Francisco take on Green Bay, let alone a juggernaut offense all year. That is unless you count pre-Week 7 incarnations of the Lions and Eagles. They’ve mostly played average (or worse) offensive teams, which has allowed them to stay on their game plan: run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball. They’ve never fallen behind by more than 20, and haven’t trailed by more than seven since Thanksgiving. But I think if and when they fall behind big to the Packers, they’ll have to leave their game plan and will end up running into trouble.

In the end, I’ll give the Saints a better shot against the Packers than I will the Niners. They’ve got a very similar team to the Packers, but they’re just about completely healthy. While the Packers ended the year a bit shaky, the Saints were firing on all cylinders. I won’t give you my pick yet, but I’ll say that it’ll make one helluva Championship Game.

Falcons (+3) over GIANTS

On a personal note, I’ve always like the Falcons and disliked the Giants. But I’m not going to let that get in the way of serious football logic with this pick, I actually do think the Falcons can win this game. Matt Ryan may not have taken The Leap this year, but as a whole, I think the Falcons are the better team.

The Giants are a funny team to say the least. They’re known as a smash-mouth team, yet they’re 32nd in rushing. There are holes across the defense, yet they’re 3rd in the league in sacks, mostly sending only four pass rushers. Citizen Eco-Drive claims that Eli Manning is unstoppable, but, well…

Atlanta, on the other hand, is very predictable and explainable. As Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz pointed out, the Falcons had the most consistent defense this season according to their defensive metric DVOA. Ever. They beat up on bad teams, outscoring teams 314-201 in their ten wins–against teams with a record of 60-100. The six losses came against teams with a combined record of 63-33 by a combined score of 159-88. They beat up on the poor and lose to the rich.

Each team is clearly flawed–I don’t see either team putting up much of a fight against the Packers or Niners. But I think the Giants lack of a run game and inability to stop the pass will ultimately lead to their downfall. Atlanta can drop seven players into coverage and force Eli Manning to pull a Mark Sanchez and throw away the game. This one should be close, but I think the Falcons offense will be too much for the faulty Giants D.

Steelers (-8) over BRONCOS

There are too many Tim Tebow/Ben Roethlisberger jokes, I’ll be the bigger man and stay away from them. No, I’ll give you just one: Tim Tebow is such a good citizen, he makes Ben Roethlisberger look like Kobe Bryant. No, wait, Lawrence Taylor.

At first glance, this game looks like a blowout. And it probably will be. But the Steelers lost stud running back Rashard Mendenhall for the year, safety Ryan Clark is out for this week, and Big Ben is still banged up. Pittsburgh is clearly a step behind the Ravens, but you can never count out a team run by Ben Roethlisberger.

Similar to Baltimore, Pittsburgh has always been known for a stingy defense and adequate defense. But in the last couple of seasons, both teams have transformed into very nice offensive teams. With the emergence of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown as very good deep options, Pittsburgh can beat you through the air. But we’ve seen so much of this Steelers team that we often get tuned out to just how great they are, turning our attention to younger, more exciting teams.

Pittsburgh may be banged up, but their offense is betweeen 3 and 14 times better than the Broncos. We’ve all talked for ages about the merits of Tim Tebow, but for now, he’s not going to take down the big boys without better weapons. Eric Decker couldn’t even tear it up at Minnesota his senior year. The Broncos win games by pounding the ball, and the Steelers are eighth in the league at stopping the run. Not to mention being tops in pass defense.

I’d pick the Broncos against the Bengals and Texans. I really would. But the Stillers are in an entirely different league compared to the Broncos. Weirder stuff has happened in the Mile High air, but Pittsburgh should run away with this game. As a final thought, the Broncos scored 17 combined points to close the year against the vaunted Chiefs and Bills D. How well could they possibly do against Pittsburgh? This is your Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

I’m just going to throw it out there: I hate Week 17. And not just because it’s the last week I’ll get to see Cam Newton in a game for about seven months. From a betting prospective, this is the worst week ever to put money on games. Starters sit, normal injuries get extra rest, motivation changes, and more starters sit. This week has the weirdest lines (Green Bay is a home underdog) because so many playoff seeds are already set.

Why is this week different from all other weeks? Are teams actually going to tank for one game? We’ll find out by watching, but find out below in my Week 17 picks. Home teams, as usual, in CAPS.

PATRIOTS (-12.5) over Bills
If there was any coach to run up the score in Week 17, don’t you think it would be Belichick?

Bears (-0.5) over VIKINGS
We’ve seen so many young quarterbacks this year. Between five rookies, all too many injuries, and a couple of bad starters, there have been more backups playing than days in a Kardashian marriage. But only two have been really bad: Blaine Gabbert and Caleb Hanie. The rest have been great (Cam Newton), good (Andy Dalton), or serviceable (Dan Orlovsky). On the other hand, the Vikings are missing Adrian Peterson; I think I’ll be taking the Bears.

PACKERS (+1.5) over Lions
I don’t care what the Packers are playing for, I’m not giving points taking the Lions here. Also, how much extra motivation is it really to move from the 6th ranked team to the 5th ranked team?

Never before has Peyton Manning rooted so hard for a win.

TEXANS (+2.5) over Titans
I just don’t think the Titans are that good. But they’ve still got a shot at the playoffs. All they need is a win, a Cincinnati loss, and a either a Jets win and one AFC West team losing or both AFC West teams winning while the Jets lose. Or Moses to part the Red Sea.

Colts (+4.5) over JAGUARS
Do you think the Colts players love Peyton Manning so much that they’d purposely un-blow a game to keep him around? I’m not sure if they would, but I can’t rely on Blaine Gabbert to win by five under any circumstances.

Niners (-10.5) over RAMS
If you can beat the Steelers 20-3, I hope you can go on the road and beat the Rams by 11.

Jets (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
As weird of a turnaround as it’s been for the Dolphins, I just can’t pick them against the Jets when New York has the playoffs to play for. Deep down, I’ll be rooting for Miami just so Rex Ryan will either a) say something really stupid or b) never make a bold proclamation ever again. We both know a) is far more likely, though.

Panthers (+7.5) over SAINTS
If you consider that this off-season the Panthers will be adding the 2nd best linebacker in the game (Jon Beason), a near All-Pro linebacker and tackle (Thomas Davis and Jeff Otah), plus a top-12 1st and 2nd round pick at the bare minimum, it’s not to crazy to say that this team is headed to the playoffs next year. Cam Newton is just that good.

EAGLES (-8.5) over Redskins
For a moment, I wanted to go with the suddenly-tough Redskins, but then I remembered that they have Rex Grossman. I really hope they either land Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning this off-season because then I can really jump on their bandwagon.

Buccaneers (+13.5) over FALCONS
The Falcons are essentially playing for the same thing that the Lions are: to move up one spot in the playoffs. But no matter how awful the Bucs are, I just can’t see the Falcons going all-out to beat them by two touchdowns.

Ravens (-2.5) over BENGALS
Sure, the Bengals have more to play for, the the Bengals might want some momentum headed to the playoffs. I still love Baltimore this year because they get up for the big games (6-0 against the Steelers, Niners, Jets, Bengals, and Texans). They won’t have to face the Seahawks and Jags in the playoffs.

Steelers (-7.5) over BROWNS
The Browns were bad to start with, so when Colt McCoy left it just turned unbearable. As a side note, you know your team is terrible when you’re hurting for a future career backup QB to return from injury.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Chiefs
Are we forgetting that Kyle Orton is not good? He was 12-21 as a starter in Denver, including 4-14 the last two years. He’s the very definitely on an average quarterback. Denver can make the playoffs with a win, so I’ll put my faith in Timmy Tebow. (See what I did there?)

Chargers (+2.5) over RAIDERS
I’m not giving 2.5 to take the Raiders.

Seahawks (+3.5) over CARDINALS
For this game, go with my usual rule of thumb: In an NFC West game without San Fran, TAKE THE POINTS! It’s 3-2 on the year.

Cowboys (+3.5) over GIANTS
I don’t think there’s a single play more career-altering than Tony Romo’s botched hold against Seattle in the playoffs. Because of it, everyone thinks of him as a choker and a loser. But really, he’s the best 4th quarter QBs all year by quarterback rating. Better than Brady. Better than Tebow. In fact, he has 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in his last seven games.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 119-121

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 11-4

He’s more controversial that Anthony Weiner. He’s more clutch than LeBron in the first quarter. He’s more famous than the Pope.

Tim Tebow is a man of many descriptions. Worse throwing mechanics than Ronnie Brown. Less accurate than your local weather man. More likely to run than Rex Ryan is to make that order Super Sized. (Man I am really firing on all cylinders today).

But to the Broncos–or at least everyone in the Broncos organization not named Fox or Elway–all that matters is that he wins games. If you’re watching a recording of the game, you might as well fast forward to the fourth quarter because you’ll spare yourself two to three terrible overthrows, some mis-read coverages, and just about the worst quarterbacking you’ve ever seen. But when it comes down when it really matters, Timmy Tebow shows up.

Last June, I dove into why I liked Tim Tebow as a draft pick. He’s an unequaled leader, sound enough mechanically, and ultimately is a proven winner. And he’s proven me right on all accounts.

But the one thing that really sets him apart is his lack of turnovers. He may not kill you through the air like Aaron Rodgers, but he throws an interception just 1.01% of the time. That’s good for tops in the league. He makes the other team really earn a victory–he isn’t going to give away possessions like Cam Newton is apt to do all to often.

You can credit him as much as you’d like for the Broncos resurgence. 50 percent. 30 percent. 2 percent. But you must admit this: the team is much more alive with Timmy Tebow at the helm than Kyle Orton.

Willis McGahee summed it all up when he said this: “It’s cool everybody doubts us. Don’t respect us. All we know is, if it’s close at the end, we’re gonna win.” More so than any other sport, willpower can drive a team over the top in football. This is a dangerous team, especially when the get a first-round home game after winning the AFC West.

Week 15 picks follow; home teams in CAPS.

FALCONS (-11.5) over Jaguars
This is a ton of points to swallow, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned this year, it’s that Blaine Gabbert may not even be the 4th best rookie QB.

Cowboys (-6.5) over BUCCANEERS
I love my boy Josh Freeman, but the rest of the team is terrible. And although Dallas will really miss DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo will have plenty of time to pick apart the Tampa defense, which has really regressed since Gerald McCoy’s injury.

Dolphins (+0.5) over BILLS
At what point do the Dolphins get some respect? When they play an overrated team on the downswing that no one respects? Oh, they’re not even favored against Buffalo.

Seahawks (+4.5) over BEARS
Seattle always seems to step it up at home during primetime and shrink in any other game, so this doesn’t make much pick in that respect. But I don’t think the Bears can recover from losing Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. That’s too much to lose for a team with so many holes already.

Bengals (-4.5) over RAMS
I still don’t love the Bengals, but if they’re going to make a playoff run, they have to beat the Rams on the road. Put it this way: I’ve never really liked

Packers (-13.5) over CHIEFS
I thought the Raiders had a shot against the Packers. By that, I mean keep it within 11 points. And the Chiefs are no Raiders. My favorite point in the Chiefs’ debacle of a season is yanking Tyler Palko from the middle of the Chicago game, putting in Kyle Orton, Orton breaking his finger after one play, and having to put Palko back in. Because they definitely believed in him the whole time.

Titans (-6.5) over COLTS
Chris Johnson looks like he’s back, Jake Locker looks alright, and the Colts look like the Colts. Wrap this one up.

You can't spell "Playoff Elimination" without Eli Manni--oh wait I'm taking the Giants this week.

Saints (-7.5) over VIKINGS
How is this line not double-digits? We’ve got a rookie quarterback and a banged up running back going up against the second best team in the NFC. Drew Brees knows the #2 seed and a bye are on the line, so this one shouldn’t even be close. Lock this one up–as the Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

GIANTS (-7.5) over Redskins
I don’t love the Giants, but I’m forced to take them when they play terrible teams like the Redskins. I don’t like Ben Stiller movies, but when Twilight is playing on the other screen, you’ll see me running back to Little Fockers.

TEXANS (-6.5) over Panthers
I desperately wanted to pick the Panthers. But then I remembered they don’t have a defense. I might just play Ben Tate over Cedric Benson in my fantasy semi-finals because there’s a really, really, really good chance he’ll get between 120 and 160 yards on his 8 carries this game. Oh, did I mention the Panthers are terrible defensively?

Lions (-1.5) over RAIDERS
No McFadden, not taking the Raiders.

Browns (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Seneca Wallace can do one thing Colt McCoy could never: not fall below expectations. Seneca Wallace’s expectation is to not lose by 21. Against John Skelton and the Cardinals, I think he can do that.

Patriots (-6.5) over BRONCOS
Tim is not Tom.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Jets
Just like last week, I know I’m almost definitely going to lose this game. They’re struggling to not even stay afloat while the Jets are actually–get this–in a playoff hunt. But I have too much pride. And Tyler Palko threw for more yards than Mark Sanchez in a 37-10 Jets romp last week.

Ravens (-2.5) over CHARGERS
The Chargers are legitimately bad. Their defense is bad, they don’t get push on either line, and Philip Rivers is bad now. And the Ravens are my Super Bowl pick.

STEELERS (+1.5) over Niners
There’s been some (bad) arguments that Andy Dalton should be the Rookie of the Year based on record alone. Wrong. First off, if record is everything, give the award to Randall Cobb, whose Packers are 13-0. And by that logic, Alex Smith is a better QB than Tom Brady. Alex Smith is not better than Joe Flacco. Colin Kaepernick is probably better.

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 103-105

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 10-4

Cam Newton.

Here are my Week 14 picks; home teams in CAPS.

STEELERS (-13.5) over Browns
I hate to give up nearly two touchdowns, but Colt McCoy has turned from a promising young quarterback to a step above Jimmy Clausen. Look for Rashard Mendenhall to have a field day against the Browns’ 31st ranked run defense.

Falcons (-2.5) over PANTHERS
Cam continues to impress, but Atlanta has an actual defense, unlike Tampa. And while I don’t like Atlanta as a playoff team, I love them tonight. They’ve got just too many offensive weapons to be thwarted by Charles Johnson, James Anderson, Charles Godfrey, and the eight practice squad players that make up the Panthers D.

T.J. Yates may not throw interceptions in Championship games, but I'd rather get that far than lose in the first round to the Jets.

Texans (+3.5) over BENGALS
If I’m the Texans, I make a call to Hattiesburg to see if Brett Favre will come out of retirement. T.J. Yates is good enough to stay afloat, but not good enough to win in the playoffs. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are a fantastic running duo, but when Huoston falls behind, TJ will be hard pressed to lead his team from behind even the Patriots’ D.

LIONS (-7.5) over Vikings
The Vikings’ pick of Christian Ponder 12th overall looks even worse right now because of just how deep this next quarterback draft class is. Andrew Luck. Robert Griffin III. Matt Barkley. Landry Jones. I’m not so hold on Jones, but three teams will find a franchise QB next May. And the Vikings will be picking in the top 5.

Saints (-3.5) over TITANS
This line makes absolutely no sense to me. Yes, Chris Johnson is averaging over 122 yards per game in the last three games, but Matt Hasselbeck isn’t in the same zip code as Drew Brees. To me, the Saints have the best chance in the NFC to beat the Packers. The Titans? I wouldn’t take them against the Raiders. I’m calling a big game for Lance Moore because this is your Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week.

RAVENS (-16.5) over Colts
I almost never want to give up more than two touchdowns, but this is the Colts we’re talking about. The difference between Baltimore and New England is that when they go ahead of the other team by a significant margin and start to pound the ball, the Ravens have Ray Rice instead of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.

JETS (-8.5) over Chiefs
As bad as Mark Sanchez is, Tyler Palko is worse. He has one touchdown (a Hail Mary) and six interceptions. Six interceptions! The only way a quarterback so bad could keep his job is if the backup is a player who got cut for a QB who can’t throw competently. Whoops.

Eagles (+3.5) over DOLPHINS
I know I’m almost certainly going to miss this game. And I know the Eagles season keeps going from bad to worse while the Dolphins pick up momentum. But I can’t take Miami. I “believe” in Vince Young.

Patriots (-7.5) over REDSKINS
Rex Grossman, John Back, it doesn’t matter. The Patriots are going to roll this week.

JAGUARS (+1.5) over Buccaneers
Josh Freeman may not be playing, and even if he does, he’ll be banged up. Furthermore, I’ll take the Jaguars D and running game over the Bucs lack of both.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bears
I believe in the Tebow! Timmy Tebow, you will lead your flock to the promised land, praise the Lord! No Forte, no Cutler, this game is no problem. The Broncos are winning the AFC West. Wait, what?

Niners (-3.5) over CARDINALS
The Niners are favored by 13.5 at home against the Rams, win 26-0, then are only favored by 3.5 on the road versus the Cardinals? Kevin Kolb is a worse quarterback than Alex Smith. Come on Vegas.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Bills
Maybe the Chargers aren’t dead yet. The shut down the pass (which neutralizes the Bills’ only strength) and can pound the ball with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. Guess what Buffalo can’t do. That’s it, stop the run.

Raiders (+11.5) over PACKERS
The chance that Carson Palmer beats Aaron Rodgers is between 2 and 1.7%, but I like the Raiders to keep it at a respectable margin. They’re going to feed Michael Bush the ball and bring the pressure to disrupt Mr. Rodgers’ game. The Giants showed this is how you can (come close to) beat them.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants just aren’t that good. They’ve got a pass rush and a great group of receivers, but the run game can’t stay healthy. The Cowboys are a solid all around–not great in any one category, but they don’t have any holes. Holes like a 29th ranked run defense, 23rd ranked pass defense, or 32nd-ranked run game. Cough, cough, Giants.

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Rams
Who scheduled the Seahawks and Rams for Monday Night Football, thinking it would even be an alright game? Whoever scheduled Alabama against LSU again, right?

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 95-97

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 9-4

At the end of my picks, figure out how many articles do not involve awful QB play. Here are my lucky Week 13 picks with home teams in CAPS.

Eagles (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
It’s pretty amazing that a game between two 2011 division winners could be so bad. But I still have a shred of belief that the Eagles can get back to 8-8. Maybe.

Falcons (-2.5) over TEXANS
Is it more unbelievable that T.J. Yates is an NFL starter or that the Texans are considering starting Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia?

Titans (+1.5) over BILLS
At this point, I’m not giving up points to take the Bills. Especially if Chris Johnson is averaging 111 yards per game in the last 3 games. Well at least Buffalo has a good run defense? Oh? They’re 21st in run defense? I’ll take Tennessee.

Chiefs (+8.5) over BEARS
Think about some of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL rights now: Tyler Palko, Caleb Hanie, T.J. Yates, Josh Johnson, Dan Orlovsky, Blaine Gabbert, Rex Grossman, Matt Moore, Tarvaris Jackson, Colt McCoy, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow. Literally a third of the league has a terrible quarterback. And Donovan McNabb is still unemployed…

STEELERS (-7.5) over Bengals
The reason the lines against the Bengals get so high are because of people like me who don’t respect them at all. There’s a good chance the Steelers win by exactly one touchdown (just like the Ravens two weeks ago) and I lose this game by a half point, but there’s no way I can depend on Cedric Benson and the Red Rifle against the Steelers’ D.

Broncos (+1.5) over VIKINGS
At one point do we just favor Tim Tebow in every game he’s not playing the Packers or Patriots? My favorite explanation for Tebow is this: He’s like a guy crossing the interstate. The first time you see him try it, you say “There’s no way this will possibly work. Those cars are going 70 mph!” Then he makes it across. Then the next week you find yourself saying the same thing. But by about the fifth straight time he does it, you say, “Watch this, he’s gonna cross the highway!” And that is Tim Tebow.

No words can aptly describe this picture.

PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts
This has to be the highest line ever. At first I was shocked a line would ever get so high in pro football. Then I thought about it again, and if there was one head coach-quarterback combination that wouldn’t for a split-second think about taking their foot off the throat of a previously despised rival, it would be the Patriots. I’m now trying to think of how high this line would have to get before I take the Colts. It’d have to be in the 30s.

Raiders (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
More bad quarterbacks! But more importantly, have you seen the picture of Raiders’ middle linebacker Rolando McClain as he’s being arrested for putting a gun to somebody’s head, then firing it near their head? It’s incredible! I’m not sure if he’s insane or just doesn’t care. It’s a bigger mystery than how long Al Davis has actually been dead.

Jets (-3.5) over REDSKINS
It’s a bad quarterback bonanza! But as bad as Shonn Greene and LT have been, the Redskins have been truly awful without the great Tim Hightower. If only the Jets had just a competent QB, they’d be favored by a touchdown. It’s a shame.

Panthers (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
Yes, only one team fields a team of eleven real defenders, but Josh Johnson is starting for the Bucs. They might be better with the Marlins’ Josh Johnson.

Ravens (-6.5) over BROWNS
Not that Colt McCoy is a bad quarterbac, but, oh wait, he is a bad quarterback.

Cowboys (-6.5) over CARDINALS
The Cowboys are going to win the NFC East without having a good season. That’s how sad of a season the Eagles are having, how much of a mirage the Redskins were, and how un-unstopable Eli Manning is. Come on Citizen Eco-Drive, you’re not convincing anyone saying Eli Manning has precision and power.

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS
Yes, you beat the Packers by playing smash-mouth football in the cold, but you’re not beating the Packers with Eli Manning.

NINERS (-13.5) over Rams
It’s dangerous to give up so many points with an NFC West team, but it’s also dangerous to put so much faith in a non-Niner NFC West team.

SAINTS (-6.5) over Lions
With Ndamukong Suh, the Lions are one of the most ferocious teams in the league. But without him, they are the Lions. Plus, you know your team is in trouble when you say, “Wow, we’re really going to miss Kevin Smith this game.”

Chargers (-2.5) over JAGUARS
So Jack Del Rio is the first head coach to be fired. I still don’t know what Norv Turner or even Andy Reid needs to do to be fired. But despite the beyond-terrible play by Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, they still have a great shot to finish 4-1 and take the division crown.

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 85-90

Lance in my Pants Lock o’ the Week: 8-4