To be perfectly honest, it hasn’t been the strongest start of the season making picks. But have no fear, we’ve been here before!
Think back to last year, when I was at -150 apples after three weeks. I was only at -145 apples after three weeks this year. I’m no mathematician, but that’s progress. Furthermore, I didn’t get out of apple debt until Week 9 last year, and I still finished with 365 apples, mostly thanks to earning 490 apples between Weeks 7 and 12.
The point of the story is don’t get worried by my tough beginning to the year. I’m on a hot streak. I got 50 apples last week.
Week 5 NFL Picks. Home teams in CAPS.
Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:
Lions (+7) over PACKERS
I feel like every Packers line gets boosted a point or two because wow Aaron Rodgers is the number one fantasy QB!! Their defense is porous (5th-worst in yards per game and 6th-worst in points per game) and the offensive line is shoddy at best with Brian Bulaga out for the year. The Lions just put up 40 points on the Bears, I think they’ll be able to cover a touchdown spread.
FALCONS (-10) over Jets
For all the high hopes the Falcons had this year–I picked them to go 12-4–they’re 1-3 to start the year. No way they blow this one on Monday Night Football. Unless, you know, this game comes down to a seven-point deficit with a minute left and the Falcons have the final drive.
Saints (PK) over BEARS
The Bears are 3-15 when Jay Cutler throws multiple interceptions and 34-9 when he doesn’t. That’s not even considering his 26 fumbles in Chicago. The Saints are 5th in the NFL with 10 takeaways.
Texans (+6.5) over NINERS
San Francisco safety Donte Whitner has filed paperwork to change his last name to “Hitner” by dropping the letter W. This is not okay. Texans it is.
RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars
Here is a running list of things better than the Jaguars:
1. Wilbur Hackett Jr.’s unbiased refereeing
2. Tyson Jackson’s belt
3. The Ravens’ special teams communication
4. Nic Cage on a wrecking ball
5. Cory Booker’s classy twitter friends
6. Jose Fernandez’s baserunning speed
7. Jose Fernandez’s ability to make batters think he’s throwing a strike
8. Jose Fernandez’s ability to not talk back to the batter
9. Jose Fernandez’s ability to stay calm
10. Jose Fernandez’s transition from Cuba to America… seriously you need to read this article right now
Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:
Ravens (+3) over DOLPHINS
Ray Rice hasn’t had a game with more than 36 yards. I know that well as his fantasy owner. But you can’t bench him at this point; you just have to ride out playing him like I’m riding out picking these sad, sad Ravens week after week.
Chiefs (-2.5) over TITANS
I think the Alex Smith perfectly fits this Chiefs team. He’s pretty good, and you could definitely do better, but, hey, he won’t make any terrible, self-destructive mistakes.
BROWNS (-4) over Bills
The Bills aren’t beating a semi-competent team unless they get five interceptions. Brian Hoyer is more of a three-interception quarterback in my mind.
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS
I took the Raiders +15.5 and they lost to the Broncos by 16. I took the Raiders +3, and after going up 14-0 on the Redskins, they lost 24-14. I’m starting to question jumping on the Raiders bandwagon.
KFC Double Down Games:
Seahawks (-3) over COLTS
Is it possible that Russell Wilson could be the best QB from the 2012 draft? Nope, but his team is leagues better than Andrew Luck’s Colts.
Eagles (+2) over GIANTS
What a great excuse to post this video.
Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS
The Panthers have the 6th best DVOA in the league this year–better than the New England Patriots. That sounds crazy, but they were a DeAngelo Williams fumble away from beating the Seahawks and a terribly coached drive away from beating the Bills. They deserve a better spread than two points in Carson Palmer’s home.
Broncos (-7.5) over COWBOYS
At this point, I’m not really hesitating on Broncos lines in the single-digits. Somehow I’ve managed to pick against them three times this year and lost every one of those picks.
Cook Out Drive-Thru Lock o’ the Week:
Patriots (+1.5) over BENGALS
It’s an early Eggsmas Miracle! Two straight Patriots games where I get points and this time they’re playing a team that couldn’t handle the Browns!
Overall record: 28-32-3
Last week: 7-7-1
Apple Total: -95
Apple Total Last Week: 50