NFL

This game is for Honey Pot Bear. Who does not care.

It’s been a great fantasy season. Thanks to Adrian Peterson and crew, I’m in the finals of my fantasy league. It’s been too long since I’ve won a fantasy football league (one year?).

But in all seriousness, today’s a big day. It’s a finals matchup for the ages between the two highest scoring teams–that’s how it should be, right?–between me and my friend John.

Ozamataz Buckshank vs. J’Dinklage Morgoone.

It’s been one of my best fantasy seasons thanks to a few players. Adrian Peterson, for being the top running back, despite being my second round pick. Alfred Morris, for being an unbelievable Week 1 pickup. Brandon Marshall for being the top receiver int he game, despite falling to the fifth round. Andrew Luck, for saving me from starting Philip Rivers for a full year. Dennis Pitta for being my first consistent tight end (no thanks to you, Coby Fleener, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Jermaine Gresham, and Jared Cook).

All my non-defensive players are in the top-8 at their position. Hope I didn’t jinx myself.

Here’s the matchup:

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

JAGUARS (+14) over Patriots
There’s no way the Jaguars win, but the Patriots will probably play a vanilla gameplan, just like they did against the Dolphins three weeks back. Save your good plays for good teams.

Saints (+2.5) over COWBOYS
The Saints aren’t done just yet. Plus I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Payton–who lives in Dallas–found some way to talk to Drew Brees during the game via radio. He’s just that maniacal.

Chargers (+2.5) over JETS
As bad as Mark Sanchez is, Greg McElroy isn’t any better. And there’s no way I’m giving points to pick him.

Titans (+11) over PACKERS
Double digit lines are dangerous. As is Chris Johnson and his backdoor cover ability.

Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS
I had a really good feeling about the Bucs. A really good feeling. Then they lost four straight games by 52 points. And that’s where they lost me. Ain’t nobody got time for that.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Giants (-2) over RAVENS
I hate passing on a chance to take the Ravens with points at home, but Baltimore looks so bad lately. Plus this is about the time of year the Giants get a big win on the road and stumble their way into the playoffs.

BRONCOS (-11) over Browns
The Broncos might be the best non-Patriots team in the league. And there’s something to be said about that.

STEELERS (-3) over Bengals
I’ll take Big Ben over Andy Dalton every day. The Bengals are still the annoying little brother.

PANTHERS (-9) over Raiders
This is a huge line to give for the Panthers, but the Raiders are 0-3 traveling to East Coast games, losing by an average of 20 points. Playing at 10 AM West Cost time is brutal.

Bills (+5) over DOLPHINS
Ryan Tannehill has exceeded my low expectations this season, but he hasn’t been impressive enough for me to give up five points to take him.

KFC Double Down Games:

TEXANS (-7.5) over Vikings
It’s really too bad Adrian Peterson doesn’t have a quarterback.

Redskins (-5.5) over EAGLES
There’s just no reason to take the Eagles any more. They’ve won one game (!!!) since October 1.

Niners (+2) over SEAHAWKS
Beating the Patriots by 7 infinitely more impressive than beating the Bills by 33.

Bears (-7) over CARDINALS
I don’t know what’s more amazing: the Cardinals putting up 38 points last week or Ryan Lindley only throwing for 104 yards in the same game.

Falcons (-3.5) over LIONS
There’s no bigger disappointment in the NFL than the Lions. With their quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive line, this team should be contending. Yet there’s just something really wrong about the team.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Colts (-5) over CHIEFS
Any time you have a playoff team with a spread of less than a touchdown on the Chiefs, you have to jump on it. No questions asked.

Overall record: 108-109-5

Last week: 9-7

Apple Total: 205

Apple Total Last Week: -15

Here are my better-late-than-never Week 14 NFL picks. Home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Saints
One of the sneaky good teams as a home underdog? I’ll take it.

Jaguars (+7.5) over DOLPHINS
The Jaguars are terrible, but the Dolphins aren’t worth giving up more than a touchdown.

COWBOYS (+1.5) over Steelers
Both teams have been so disappointing this year, but there’s little more disappointing than losing to a Norv Turner team at home by 10.

Chiefs (+4.5) over RAIDERS
Ain’t nobody got time for that.

FALCONS (-1) over Giants
The Falcons are being exposed as a bit weaker than their record would have you think, and this is typically the time of year the Giants catch fire. So I’m going with Atlanta!

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Vikings (+2.5) RAMS
Adrian Peterson is far and away the best player on the field. I’ll take him and the points.

Redskins (+4) over BROWNS
It’s going to be an interesting debate over how the Skins should handle Kirk Cousins. He’s playing better than Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel did in their short auditions a few years ago, and they each fetched a second round pick plus. RG3 may never be healthy for a full year, but the Redskins could use a few more pieces if they choose to sell off Cousins.

Lions (-6) over CARDINALS
What do you think Brian Hoyer has to do to get some playing time? He’s benched behind Ryan Lindley and John Skelton. Lindley’s completion percentage is 48.3% and his quarterback rating is 42.6.

Panthers (+3) over CHARGERS
Classic Panthers. They’ve started 2-8 the last two seasons under Cam Newton, and they won 4 of their last 6 in 2011. They’ve won 2 of the last 3 this season with just San Diego, Oakland, and New Orleans left on the schedule.

Lions (+1.5) over TITANS
The Titans still aren’t good, and I’m most certainly not giving points to pick them.

KFC Double Down Games:

Bengals (-5) over EAGLES
Last I checked, Nick Foles still isn’t good, and Bryce Brown looked terrible last week. I just see no reason to pick the Eagles again this year.

Packers (-3) over BEARS
Without Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, the Bears just don’t look that good. Unfortunately, they’ll probably miss the playoffs for the second season in a row because of late-season injuries.

Broncos (-3) over RAVENS
The Broncos are one of the five best teams in the league, and the Ravens are overrated because people still think they have an elite defense. Which the don’t.

I’m not sure if Russell Wilson is great, but he’s definitely great against bad teams.

Colts (+10.5) over TEXANS
Don’t give up double digit points when it’s two good teams and the favored team got whacked by 28 points the week before.

Seahawks (-4.5) over BILLS
The Seahawks could score one twelfth the points they scored last week and still cover this line by four.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

PATRIOTS (-4) over Niners
I’m just going to copy and paste my writeup for the Patriots/Texans game last week: “This is going to be the game the whole NFL recognizes the Patriots as the best team in the league. And there’s nothing you can do about it.”

Overall record: 99-102-5

Last week: 6-9-1

Apple Total: 220

Apple Total Last Week: -55

Happy finals week, Vanderbilt! Here are my Week 14 picks; home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

Look out for some crazy Brady Quinn Browns-fueled revenge. If that’s even possible.

Chiefs (+7) over BROWNS
Ahh starting the picks off early with the Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week!

STEELERS (-8) over Chargers
I’ve reached the point where I just don’t think taking the Chargers is a good idea anymore. I know it will be tough for Pittsburgh to get over the loss of Charlie Batch with Ben Roethlisberger coming back, but I think the team will be okay.

PACKERS (-6.5) over Lions
The Lions defense is looking pretty vulnerable lately, which is never a good sign with Green Bay on the schedule.

Dolphins (+10.5) over NINERS
As fun as Colin Kaepernick is, he’s still not making the Niners offense very high-powered. San Fran should definitely win, but I’m not sure they’ll win by at least 11.

Saints (+4.5) over GIANTS
This is just a hunch. The Giants seem to lose these big games at home before they win an even bigger game on the road at the very end of the season, catch fire, and go win the Super Bowl over a far superior Patriots team.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Broncos (-10) over RAIDERS
You try not to take a double digit line, but there’s no way I’m taking Carson Palmer now.

BUCCANEERS (-7.5) over Eagles
Nick Foles just isn’t good.

BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys
The Cowboys almost lost to Nick Foles, who just isn’t good.

Rams (+3) over BILLS
St. Louis’ defense has been very solid and Sam Bradford has been good enough to keep them in most games. And that level of mediocrity is good enough to beat Buffalo.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Cardinals
I hesitate, as always, to bite on double digit lines, but the Seahawks are a whole new team at home. Plus I’ll need at least more points to take Ryan Lindley. The real question is: “What is a Ryan Lindley?”

KFC Double Down Games:

Ravens (+1.5) over REDSKINS
Even without Terrell Suggs (again), I’m not passing up this beautiful line. People are jumping on the RG3 bandwagon–which I fully support–and that’s pushing this line towards the Skins. Love it.

COLTS (-4) over Titans
Will people realize that the Colts are good or the Titans are bad first? These have been two of my secret best apple-betting teams.

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans
This is going to be the game the whole NFL recognizes the Patriots as the best team in the league. And there’s nothing you can do about it.

Jets (-3) over JAGUARS
As a rule of thumb, you should never put a lot of apples on the Jets, but it’s hard not to like picking against the Jags while only giving up a field goal. Plus we might have a Tebow chant in Jacksonville!!

Falcons (-3.5) over PANTHERS
The Panthers lost to the Chiefs, how are they going to look good against the Falcons? Oh, right, that’s what the Panthers do. Stink for the first half of the year, then hit the gas and take off at the end of the year, neither making the playoffs nor getting a great draft pick. Joy.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

BEARS (-2) over Vikings
The Bears screwed me over last week losing at home to the Seahawks, so I’ll give them one more shot with another surprisingly small line. My biggest fear here is that Adrian Peterson will gash the Bears D that’s missing Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings.

Overall record: 93-93-4

Last week: 7-9

Apple Total: 275

Apple Total Last Week: -55

How often can we say that a Boston team is not getting enough attention from the media?

Never.

But that might be the case here, as the Patriots are far and away the best team in the NFL but aren’t getting nearly the respect they deserve.

Their 8-3 record may not look incredible, but their three losses have come by a combined four points. Four whole points! New England has finally found a consistent running game with Steven Ridley, and their passing attack has been clicking on all cylinders, even without their tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Herenandez.

But perhaps the most impressive turnaround for this team has been the defense. The rush defense is 10th in the league, and they’ve forced 32 turnovers. The Pats also finally have an influx of young talent with big years from rookies Dont’a Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Tavon Wilson.

Here is a team with 7.3 more points per game than any other team. A team that dominates the two most important stats in the game: point differential and turnover margin.

It’s almost like the 2007 team–with a better defense.

I took a week off making picks, but things seemed to have worked out. I’ve won 200 apples the past two weeks, and I finally have a winning record to match my big apples surplus. Let’s keep the strong picks rolling. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

CHARGERS (+1) over Bengals
At what point do we just accept that there’s nothing Norv Turner can ever do to get fired? I mean Ray Rice’s magical 30-yard catch on 4th-and-29 was about the most embarrasing play of the year.

Jaguars (+6) over BILLS
Ain’t nobody got time for that.

JETS (-6) over Cardinals
If the Jets can’t beat Ryan Lindley at home, who are they going to beat?

Eagles (+10.5) over COWBOYS
This game fits perfectly into the Never-Give-Double-Digit-Points-In-A-Game-With-Two-Hilariously-Sad-Teams mold.

Vikings (+7.5) over PACKERS
I really thought the Packers were off to great places last week, having won five straight games. Turns out beating St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Detroit isn’t as impressive as it looks, as the Giants showed us.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

FALCONS (-3) over Saints
I always have trouble taking the Saints against a team with a strong defense. In general, it’s just really hard to win games with a Matador Defense.

RAMS (+7.5) over Niners
I picked the Rams (+13) over the Niners on the road three weeks ago, so I’ll be taking them at home again with the points. And as much hype as Colin Kaepernick has received (and I’m on board the bandwagon), he’s only averaging 197 yards passing per game. That would be good for 28th in the NFL.

Buccaneers (+7.5) over BRONCOS
How can you not love Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, and these young Bucs?

Colts (+7) over Lions
The Colts have been my secret sneaky good team lately, covering five of their last six games. The not so subtle secret: Andrew Luck is really good.

Steelers (+7.5) over RAVENS
Seven of the last eight Steelers/Ravens games have been won by less points than this line. In fact, six of those were just by 3 points. Ben Roethlisberger or Charlie Batch, I don’t want to give up that many points with these defenses.

Don’t look now, but the Patriots have by far the best turnover margin in the league (24, compared to the next best at 13) and the best points differential in the league (+163, compared to the next best at +121). Why doesn’t this team get more press?

KFC Double Down Games:

Patriots (-7.5) over DOLPHINS
Ah, the point in the season where you take the Patriots without hesitation unless there’s a double digit line. And if there is a double digit line, think about it for a while and settle on the Patriots.

Panthers (-3) over CHIEFS
I can’t imagine how the Chiefs are going to play too well after a tragedy like what happened on Saturday. Also, isn’t this one of the few reasons an NFL game should be delayed? Out of respect for the family and team, I think this game would be better played on Tuesday.

GIANTS (-3) over Redskins
Time to pile off the Redskins bandwagon!

Texans (-7) over TITANS
Houston’s D will shut down Chris Johnson, leaving Tennessee no chance. This line really should be higher.

Browns (-2.5) over RAIDERS
Oakland has lost it’s last three games a combined 169-79. That’s 22.5 points per game–and if my math is correct–20 points more than this line.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

BEARS (-3) over Seahawks
Chicago is 8-2 when Jay Cutler starts this year, and one of those losses came when Cutler was knocked out mid-way through. As for the Seahawks? They’re 5-0 at home, but 1-5 on the road. And this game’s at Soldier Field.

Overall record: 86-84-4

Last week: 10-4-2

Apple Total: 330

Apple Total Last Week: 100

Week 11 picks! Home teams in CAPS!

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

Dolphins (+2.5) over BILLS
Miami and Buffalo on Thursday Night Football? You know, some teams just don’t need national television exposure.

TEXANS (-15.5) over Jaguars
I know I shouldn’t take double digit lines, especially ones over two touchdowns. But the Jaguars are just so bad.

FALCONS (-9.5) over Cardinals
Turns out the Falcons aren’t as good as their record was, but most experts were thinking that already. If they’re hoping to do anything at all in the playoffs, though, they’ll need to smack around a team led by John Skelton and LaRod Stephens-Howling

Colts (+9.5) over PATRIOTS
It was pretty easy to root against Peyton Manning’s Colts, but it’s hard not to like Andrew Luck’s Colts.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

I’m 3-6 picking Jets games this year, including making just one of my last five picks correctly, so take this pick with a grain of salt. When your picks are worse than the Jets quarterbacks, you know you’re in trouble.

RAMS (-3.5) over Jets
I have no words. The Ain’t Nobody Got Time For This Game of the Week.

Buccaneers (+1) over PANTHERS
The Panthers can’t run the ball, and they can’t stop a nosebleed defensively. Not a good combination.

COWBOYS (-7) over Browns
Would you rather be a fan of a frustratingly enigmatic team or a fan of a perpetually hopeless?

Chargers (+8) over BRONCOS
I’m selling high on the Broncos and buying low on the Chargers. The Chargers have the 2nd best rush defense in the league, and this is usually the time of year Philip Rivers picks up his game.

NINERS (-6.5) over Bears
This would have been a tenfold better game if Jay Cutler didn’t get concussed. That selfish jerk, making us watch Jason Campbell.

KFC Double Down Games:

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles
As bad as Michael Vick has been this year, Nick Foles won’t be any better. In fact, Nick Foles is the 3rd best rookie quarterback in this game behind RG3 and Kirk Cousins.

Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS
Forget last week, the Chiefs are still one of the five worst teams in the league. The Bengals may not be a playoff team, but they’re certainly more than a field goal better than these Chiefs.

Ravens (-3) over STEELERS
No Roethlisberger, no chance. Sorry. I just wish we didn’t have two great matchups soiled by injured quarterbacks.

Saints (-6) over RAIDERS
Looks like the Saints are back. No choice but to jump on this small line.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Packers (-3) over LIONS
One year ago, people would have done anything for a Packers line this small. Like we’re talking about watching the entirety of Birdemic: Shock and Terror.

Overall record: 69-74-2

Last week: 5-9

Apple Total: 130

Apple Total Last Week: -20

Sometimes I start my weekly football picks with something important and football related. Talking about betting trends. Why home field advantage may exist. Poking fun at replacement refs. But this week, I’ve decided on something even better.

Starting this week–the midpoint of the NFL season–I’m unveiling a new weekly feature: the Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week. If you haven’t seen the original video, Sweet Brown and her story of her escape from a burning apartment is truly gold. She’s already been featured on tosh.0 and has a wonderful remix. Also, using ‘ain’t nobody got time for that’ in daily conversation is always a good choice.

The Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week is really just an awful, boring game. It’s a game that–even with heavy fantasy football implications–is just not worth watching. Just the type of game your friends would force you watch if you lost an awful bet.

These games will count the same every week (whatever category of game they are under), but the Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That Game of the Week is really just an excuse to use that wonderful phrase. Without further ado, here are my Week 9 picks; home teams are in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

CHARGERS (-7) over Chiefs
As bad as the Chargers looked last week, there’s no way I can put any trust in Matt Cassell, Romeo Crennel, and the Chiefs.

PACKERS (-10) over Cardinals
The Packers burned me last week when they couldn’t cover their double-digit spread against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals have been playing horrendously lately. They’re down to LaRod Stephens-Howling and William Powell at running back and John Skelton at quarterback. I respect Arizona’s defense, but this game could get out of hand.

Panthers (+3) over REDSKINS
Is Cam Newton the RG3 of 2011 or is RG3 the Cam Newton of 2012?

Eagles (+3) over SAINTS
I just can’t give up points and take the Saints. Their defense is too bad.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Ain’t nobody got time for Blaine Gabbert, Cecil Shorts, and Rashad Jennings.

COLTS (+2) over Dolphins
I’m taking the home team, the points, and the better quarterback. Ryan Tannehill may not be the disaster I anticipated as a rookie, but he’s far from Andrew Luck’s league.

Lions (-4.5) over JAGUARS
Ain’t nobody got time for boring games like that.

Buccaneers (+1.5) over RAIDERS
Tampa Bay has the 6th best run defense in the league, and Josh Freeman and Doug Martin are starting to realize their potentials. Their biggest problem this season has been a porous pass defense, which was exacerbated by trading Aqib Talib to New England on Thursday. The good news is they’re going up against Carson Palmer, so that won’t be a problem this week.

Steelers (+3) over GIANTS
If the Steelers ever get healthy running backs, they could become Super Bowl dark horse favorites. A still elite defense, a reinvigorated Ben Roethlisberger, this team is flying way runderated.

Vikings (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS
I don’t think either team is especially great, so I’ll take the points. Adrian Peterson is the best player on the field, which alleviates my concern about Christian Ponder playing in Qwest Field. (Yes, I know the stadium was renamed CenturyLink Field, but it just looks wrong.)

KFC Double Down Games:

Broncos (-4) over BENGALS
I don’t like picking against road dogs, but the Broncos are pretty good, and the Bengals just aren’t.

Ravens (-3.5) over BROWNS
At what point do the Browns consider drafting a backup quarterback for Brandon Weeden? Dude’s already 29.

FALCONS (-3.5) over Cowboys
I know this line has something to do with the large amount of Cowboys fans betting the line in one direction, but the undefeated Falcons should be getting a lot more respect than they are against the 3-4 Cowboys.

TEXANS (-10) over Bills
Bad news for Mario Williams: he left the Texans just as they became one of the two or three strongest teams in the AFC. Good news for Mario Williams: a $100 million contract means he has a lot more money to spend.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Bears (-3.5) over TITANS
I just don’t get this line. The Bears looked sluggish against the Panthers last week, but nobody on the Titans is going to be able to stop Matt Forte or Brandon Marshall. Well, only Jay Cutler and the Bears offensive line can.

Overall record: 52-63-2

Last week: 7-7

Apple Total: -20

Apple Total Last Week: 80

Trends in sports are very fun–it brings math into the equation a bit. It also makes betting apples a lot easier.

One of the more interesting trends this year has been how home underdogs have played this year. Overall, home dogs are 23-16 against the spread (a very good advantage for apple betters), but the interesting nature of home dogs’ success goes even further.

When replacement refs were tainting the league, the advantage was even bigger with 13 of the 19 home dogs covering. Since then, however, the script has been flipped with road favorites covering in 10 of the 18 games. Historically, home teams get more close calls than road teams, and the problem could very easily exacerbated by uncertain replacement refs playing to the home crowd. (For a more detailed explanation and proof of this, get the book Scorecasting, or read this quick explanation of ref bias in home field advantage. I highly recommend the book.)

If we take another look at how home underdogs have played, there has been another key way of seeing the betting advantage. We’ll look at four different categories of spreads: small dog (0.5 to 1.5 points), field goal dog (2.5 to 3.5 points), Vegas Zone (4.5 to 5.5 points), and big dog (6.5 to 8 points).

Small dogs: 2-5
Field goal dogs: 11-7
Vegas Zone: 4-2
Big dogs: 4-2

It’s a small sample size, but the bigger the spread is, the better the home dogs have performed. This isn’t a law, but it might be the beginning of an interesting trend. Now go wager your apples wisely! …Not that I encourage that behavior.

Without further ado, here are my Week 8 picks; home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

Seahawks (+2) over LIONS
Remember when we thought the Lions were good again? Right.

COWBOYS (+2.5) over Giants
Read the section above.

Saints (+6.5) over BRONCOS
The Broncos beat the Chargers last week because Philip Rivers coughed up the ball six times. The Saints may not win, but Drew Brees will not turn over the ball like that.

PACKERS (-16.5) over Jaguars
I hate huge lines like this. Of course, the Packers are going to win, but are they going to crush the timid Jaguars by 17? I had the same dilemma yesterday when a friend asked me if I thought #1 Alabama would cover their 22.5 point line over #11 Mississippi State. I didn’t put any apples on that game, but the Crimson Tide rolled on for a 38-7 win. So I’m going with the Packers.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS
Andrew Luck continues to impress, averaging 279 passing yards per game, plus an extra 19 rushing yards per game. He’s also taken a team that went 1-15 last year to already triple it’s win total. It’s stating the obvious, but it needs to be stated: he’s going big places.

Buccaneers (+5.5) over VIKINGS
When both teams are very boring and unimpressive, just take the points. Plus I love Josh Freeman.

JETS (-2.5) over Dolphins
If the Jets want a shot at the playoffs, they need to beat the Dolphins at home. There’s no way around it.

BEARS (-7.5) over Panthers
The Panthers defense was bad enough before Jon Beason was placed on the IR. The Panthers offensive line was bad enough before Ryan Kalil was placed on the IR. This has gone from a Season of Hope to a Season of Nope pretty quickly.

Niners (-7) over CARDINALS
The Niners couldn’t cover an eight point spread last week against the Seahawks. I’m going to use some highly advanced math, but a seven point spread is less than an eight point spread, and the Cardinals are worse than the Seahawks. I’m going with the Niners here.

KFC Double Down Games:

STEELERS (-4.5) over Redskins
Washington is last in the league in pass defense, and Pittsburgh is 6th in passing. Sounds promising. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league in pass defense, and Washington is 20th in passing. Sounds very promising.

Chargers (-3) over BROWNS
No matter how bad the Chargers were in the second half last week, at least he isn’t Brandon Weeden.

The good news for Chiefs is at least they don’t have to start Jimmy Clausen

Falcons (+3) over EAGLES
How exactly are the undefeated Falcons not favored? And why do people think Michael Vick is still elite?

Raiders (+1) over CHIEFS
I get to pick against Brady Quinn AND get points? This is nothing short of a miracle, usually I have to pick one or the other.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Patriots (-7) over RAMS
Whoever doesn’t root for the Patriots in London is just Un-American. USA! USA! USA! USA!

Overall record: 45-56-2

Last week: 7-5

Apple Total: -100

Apple Total Last Week: 60

Just for a moment, my picks were headed in the right direction–two straight weeks of positive net apples. Then last week happened. Without further ado, here are my Week 7 picks; home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

Cardinals (+6.5) over VIKINGS
I think it’s about time to hop off the Vikings bandwagon. The Cardinals sure aren’t a lot better, but they should be good enough to keep this within a touchdown.

Ravens (+7) over TEXANS
Losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb is killer, but the Ravens are getting Terrell Suggs back this week. Futhermore, the Ravens’ only loss came by one point, and they’ve ripped off four straight Ws.

Redskins (+6) over GIANTS
Coming off a huge with against the Niners, the Giants may be caught looking ahead towards redemption versus the Cowboys next week.

Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
I can just see it: the Patriots jump out to a 10 point lead, slowly start choking away the lead, then escape with a 3-point victory.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

COLTS (-1.5) over Browns
Andrew Luck may not have the flash of RG3, but he’s fifth in the league in passing. RG3? 23rd.

Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS
Without Ryan Kalil, Jon Beason, and Chris Gamble, I have a hard time seeing the Panthers pulling this one off here.

Blaine Gabbet knows if he keeps losing that his team will draft Matt Barkley or Geno Smith, right?

RAIDERS (-6) over Jaguars
How bad are the Jaguars? I picked up the Raiders as my fantasy defense this week.Oakland is 31st in fantasy defense scoring with a total of -1 fantasy points all year. But they’re going up against Blaine Gabbert, so how bad could they be?

Seahawks (+8) over NINERS
I made this pick at the last second because I was afraid to give up so many points, and this turned out to be on e of the craziest endings to a game for Vegas. The Seahawks were down 7 with under a minute to go on 4th and 17 from their own 4, and Russell Wilson completed a 16-yard pass to Obomanu. Only there was an illegal chop block in the end zone, resulting in a safety. All of a sudden, the Niners were going to cover–until Jim Harbaugh decided to decline the penalty, took away the safety, kneeled twice, and won the game by 7. Amazing.

KFC Double Down Games:

BILLS (-3.5) over Titans
The Titans just aren’t good. The Bills aren’t either, but they don’t have Chris Johnson.

Steelers (-1) BENGALS
The Steelers are a mystery. They’re 7th in passing, 4th in pass defense, and 9th in rush defense, yet they lose to teams like Denver, Oakland, and Tennessee. Then again, there’s no way they fall to 2-4.

Saints (-1.5) over BUCCANEERS
I’m pretty much going to ignore Tampa’s result last week; they were going up against Brady Quinn.

BEARS (-6.5) over Lions
The Bears are not getting as much attention as they deserve, which is crazy since they’re 4-1. They’re averaging 15.6 points more than their opponents, and their defense has been nothing short of outstanding.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Packers (-5.5) over RAMS
We’re in the Vegas Zone! The Rams have been keeping their games close, but the Packers just blew out the previously undefeated Texans. Honestly I’m surprised this line isn’t closer to a touchdown because only one of these 3-3 teams here has a chance at the playoffs.

Overall record: 38-51-2

Last week: 4-10

Apple Total: -120

Apple Total Last Week: -115

Frankly, the replacement refs were an unfettered embarrassment to the NFL. There’s no way around it. The NFL tried to save a few bucks here and there but in the process totally lost control of players in games and tainted the outcome of countless games.

Eventually, it took the replacement refs horribly butchering a Monday Night Football game (including swinging the betting line, too) for Roger Goodell to actually step in and strike a deal with the real referees. And really, it looks like it was the bad publicity, not the bad product that expedited the process.

Players and coaches had been complaining for weeks–even months–but media outlets made a gigantic ruckus about the whole situation. This was all capped off with ESPN running a 90-minute SportsCenter following the Monday Night Debacle, which received a rating over 5–the highest in 17 years.

So here we are, three weeks into the NFL season with our regular referees back. Every game will still be filled with a fair share of disputable calls and fans who think their team is being colluded against, but the overall situation will be better. Games will be shorter. Players won’t get into fights nearly as often. Coaches won’t have to waste challenges on blatantly missed calls.

The replacement refs were so bad that South Park opened their fall season by bashing the NFL.

What’s ironic about this entire situation is that the ratings for NFL games won’t change. With or without real refs, America is still addicted to football. The replacement refs didn’t turn us off from football, it just got us talking about football more. And as the saying goes: any publicity is good publicity.

Hopefully one last thing the return of the real refs will do lower the variability in games. In other words, hopefully games will be easier to pick. Since Week 1, I’ve had a rough two week stretch, and Lord knows I could use some help. I don’t mean to put blame on the high school social studies teacher replacement ref, but some more accurate jurors couldn’t hurt.

And without further ado, here are my Week 4 picks. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

RAVENS (-12) over Browns
There’s no way Brandon Weeden is going into Baltimore and winning in primetime. No way.

Titans (+12) over TEXANS
Of course the Texans are going to win. I just feel really nervous about giving up nearly two touchdowns. Will I be surprised if the Texans pull off a 40-13 win? Nope. But there’s always a good team that falls asleep against a very average team.

Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS
I was almost ready to jump on the Tampa bandwagon until they laid a giant stinker in Dallas last week. And when it comes down to it, I’d rather have Robert Griffin III than Josh Freeman, although I’m a pretty big fan of both quarterbacks.

Broncos (-7) over RAIDERS
I keep expecting the Raiders to go away, but they never do. I’ve also been expecting the old Peyton Manning to come back, but all I’ve seen is Old Peyton Manning. And with that in mind, I’m taking the Broncos!

Saints (+7.5) over PACKERS
Fool me four times…

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers
This game is about 50-50 between the Falcons winning big and the Falcons winning really big.

Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES
So let me get this straight: the Eagles are coming off a 6-27 drubbing in Arizona while the Giants handed Carolina a 36-7 beatdown with nine days off, yet the Eagles are favored.

LIONS (-4) over Vikings
This game is like the tale of the good husband who’s been treating you badly lately against the bad husband who’s been treating you well lately. Which would you rather have? If I were the football bachelorette, I’d take the one who’s actually good deep down.

Bears (+3.5) over COWBOYS
I don’t have a ton of faith in this pick, but I have even less faith in Tony Romo in primetime.

KFC Double Down Games:

Niners (-4) over JETS
Yes, the Niners ruined my Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week seven days ago, but they’re still one of the three best teams in the league. The Jets, on the other hand, are only one of the three biggest basket case/circus/reality show-disguised-as-a-team teams in the league.

Bengals (-1) over JAGUARS
I’m picking against Blaine Gabbert AND I only give up one point? Sign me up right now!

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Dolphins
How is this line not four points higher? The Cardinals are undefeated, downed the Patriots, handily beat the Dream Team, and have been doing it all with nothing-short-of-banal quarterback play. The Dolphins have very little going for themselves–I just can’t see them staying in this game after a cross country flight.

Seahawks (-3) over RAMS
Seattle’s playoff chances are certainly more legitimate than their game winning “catch” last week, but how are they good enough to outpace the Niners and Cardinals for a division crown? They’re certainly good enough to beat the Rams by a field goal, I do know that.

Chargers (-1) over CHIEFS
Has anyone ever looked at Matt Cassel and felt secure? Or confident? Or not even excited?

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Patriots (-3.5) over BILLS
It’s certainly a shock to see the Patriots have a losing record, but that doesn’t lesson my faith in TFB and this juggernaut offense. Let’s just put it this way: there’s no way the Patriots lose three straight games, especially with the last game against Buffalo. And the Pats aren’t just going to win by four, they’re going to win big–or else.

Overall record: 18-28-2

Last week: 7-9

Apple Total: -150

Apple Total Last Week: -85

I’ll be honest. Last week was rough. I’m down 120 apples, largely thanks to the Patriots straight up losing my Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week straight up, as the Cardinals won and covered by 15.5 points. Not pretty.

But this week is going to be better, and I can feel it. I can feel it so well, I’m skipping straight to the picks; home teams in CAPS.

Ben & Jerry’s Half Baked Games:

BEARS (-7.5) over Rams
Are the Rams legit? They beat the Redskins and almost took down the Lions before that. But despite their futile effort against the Packers, the one thing I do know is that the Bears are legit. And if they want to stay at that level, they need to take care of business at home.

Bengals (-3) over REDSKINS
As much as I love RG3, you get docked points for losing to the Rams. I really want to like the Redskins, but losing Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker is just killer.

Eagles (-3.5) over CARDINALS
This is one of those picks I make every week where I know I’m picking the wrong team. The Cards are getting points at home after beating the Patriots and Seahawks. They’ve won 9 of their last 11. But Mike Vick! Dream Team! Ahhhhh!

SAINTS (-8.5) over Chiefs
Fool me once, Saints, shame on you. Fool me twice, Saints, shame on me. Fool me thrice, Saints…… no the Saints can’t possibly blow this home game and start the year 0-3.

BROWNS (+3) over Bills
Even though the Bills blew out the Chiefs, their defense got lit up by Matt Cassel and Peyton Hillis. The Chiefs had more total offense, and the Bills have given up an average of 32.5 points per game. I’ll take the points.

Dunkin’ Donuts Plain Cake Games:

PANTHERS (+1) over Giants
I jumped on this line early Tuesday morning, and it swung four points in the opposite direction to Panthers -3 in the matter of two days. That should’ve been a red flag to take the Giants and the points and run.

Buccaneers (+8) over COWBOYS
The Bucs may be an alright team this year, and the Cowboys did not show any signs of looking alright in Seattle last week. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Cowboys won, but I’m not ready to lay 8 points on a team that got steamrolled by Golden Tate and the Seahawks.

Patriots (+2.5) over RAVENS
I’m always a fan of the Patriots and points! New England has only lost 3 back-to-back games since 2003, and I can’t imagine Bill Belichick giving his players an easy week. This is the game of the week, easy.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS
The Falcons are the better team, they’re getting points, and the Chargers are often slow to start the season. This seems like a storm of good vibes for Atlanta.

Texans (-2) over BRONCOS
Peyton Manning is definitely not 100%. Case and point? Denver warmed up rookie Brock Osweiler at the end of last Monday’s game in case they had to run a Hail Mary. Peyton’s arm just isn’t the same.

KFC Double Down Games:

Jets (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
I really whiffed on the Dolphins game last week. Oakland went from a Monday night game the week before to a game that started at 10 AM West Coast time in the Miami heat in black uniforms. Well this week I’m not whiffing. The Jets are just better than the Dolphins.

Lions (-3.5) over TITANS
Chris Johnson has been so bad this season running the ball, that the Titans should seriously consider making him more of a wide receiver. The man is averaging 1.1 yards per carry; he’s just been ineffective running between the tackles. But if Tennessee lets him loose in the open field as a dual-threat receiver-running back, he could be more valuable.

My new favorite pastime might become picking against Blaine Gabbert.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars
I may sound like a broken record, but it’s going to take more than three points to get me to pick Blaine Gabbert.

Packers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
I’m definitely warming up to the Seahawks this year, but if you asked someone at the start of the year what the line for a Packers-Seahawks game would be, it would be more like Packers by 7 or 8 than Packers by a field goal.

Steelers (-4) over OAKLAND
Darren McFadden hasn’t been good this season, and Carson Palmer is still Oakland’s quarterback. That should be enough.

Drink Cheerwine Lock o’ the Week:

Niners (-6.5) over VIKINGS
Why isn’t this line double digits? The Niners are clearly the best team in the NFL right now, and the Vikings just lost to the Colts. This game might just be the lock of the century.

Overall record: 11-19-2

Last week: 4-10-2

Apple Total: -65

Apple Total Last Week: -120